Hidden Dragon, Crouching Lion: How China's Advance in Africa Is Underestimated and Africa's ...

128 Pages·2012·3.19 MB·English

Visit our website for other free publication
downloads
http://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/
To rate this publication click here.
STRATEGIC
STUDIES
INSTITUTE
The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is part of the U.S. Army War
College and is the strategic-level study agent for issues related to
national security and military strategy with emphasis on geostrate-
gic analysis.
The mission of SSI is to use independent analysis to conduct strategic
studies that develop policy recommendations on:
• Strategy, planning, and policy for joint and combined
employment of military forces;
• Regional strategic appraisals;
• The nature of land warfare;
• Matters affecting the Army’s future;
• The concepts, philosophy, and theory of strategy; and
• Other issues of importance to the leadership of the Army.
Studies produced by civilian and military analysts concern topics
having strategic implications for the Army, the Department of De-
fense, and the larger national security community.
In addition to its studies, SSI publishes special reports on topics of
special or immediate interest. These include edited proceedings of
conferences and topically-oriented roundtables, expanded trip re-
ports, and quick-reaction responses to senior Army leaders.
The Institute provides a valuable analytical capability within the
Army to address strategic and other issues in support of Army par-
ticipation in national security policy formulation.
Strategic Studies Institute Monograph
HIDDEN DRAGON, CROUCHING LION:
HOW CHINA’S ADVANCE IN AFRICA
IS UNDERESTIMATED AND AFRICA’S
POTENTIAL UNDERAPPRECIATED
David E. Brown
September 2012
The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do
not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Depart-
ment of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Gov-
ernment. Authors of Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publications
enjoy full academic freedom, provided they do not disclose clas-
sified information, jeopardize operations security, or misrepre-
sent official U.S. policy. Such academic freedom empowers them
to offer new and sometimes controversial perspectives in the in-
terest of furthering debate on key issues. This report is cleared for
public release; distribution is unlimited.
*****
This publication is subject to Title 17, United States Code, Sec-
tions 101 and 105. It is in the public domain and may not be copy-
righted.
*****
Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should
be forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army
War College, 47 Ashburn Drive, Carlisle, PA 17013-5010.
*****
All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publications may be
downloaded free of charge from the SSI website. Hard copies of
this report may also be obtained free of charge while supplies
last by placing an order on the SSI website. SSI publications may
be quoted or reprinted in part or in full with permission and ap-
propriate credit given to the U.S. Army Strategic Studies Insti-
tute, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle Barracks, PA. Contact SSI
by visiting our website at the following address: www.Strategic
StudiesInstitute.army.mil.
*****
The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail
newsletter to update the national security community on the re-
search of our analysts, recent and forthcoming publications, and
upcoming conferences sponsored by the Institute. Each newslet-
ter also provides a strategic commentary by one of our research
analysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, please
subscribe on the SSI website at www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.
army.mil/newsletter/.
ISBN 1-58487-542-9
ii
FOREWORD
The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) has main-
tained close and positive professional ties with our
colleagues at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies
(ACSS) in Washington, DC, since ACSS’s founding
in 1999. The Africa Center is the preeminent U.S. De-
partment of Defense (DoD) institution for strategic
security studies, research, and outreach in Africa. I am
pleased that SSI and ACSS are once more able to col-
laborate in the publication of this monograph, entitled
Hidden Dragon, Crouching Lion: How China’s Advance in
Africa is Underestimated and Africa’s Potential Underap-
preciated. Its author, David E. Brown, is currently the
Senior Diplomatic Advisor at ACSS. He brings unique
perspectives to the important foreign policy issue of
China’s rapid commercial and political advance in Af-
rica, having served eight times in China and Africa as
a Foreign Service Officer at U.S. Embassies, U.S. Con-
sulates, and the American Institute in Taiwan.
This monograph is part of our Advancing Strategic
Thought Series precisely because its topic is so impor-
tant. As Mr. Brown stresses, the explosive growth of
China’s economic interests in Africa is arguably the
most important trend in the continent’s foreign re-
lations since the end of the Cold War. China-Africa
trade passed the $1 billion mark in 1990, jumped to
$10 billion in 2000, and accelerated again, increasing
15-fold in a little over a decade to $150 billion in 2011.
China’s rapidly expanding ties with Africa catapulted
China past the United States in 2010 as Africa’s top
trading partner. Mr. Brown predicts that by 2020,
China’s projected expansion of trade, investment, and
development assistance is likely to secure economic
and political influence for Beijing in Africa that at least
iii
rivals, if not surpasses, that enjoyed by Europe and
the United States over the last 150 years.
Moreover, as the monograph emphasizes, China’s
quest to build a strategic partnership with Africa must
also be seen in the broader context of the central strate-
gic objective of Beijing’s foreign policy: promoting the
peaceful rise of the People's Republic of China (PRC)
as a global superpower. What China is now consoli-
dating in Africa is just one part of a broader network
of global alliances that support not only Beijing’s puta-
tive leadership in the developing world, but its emerg-
ing role as a global power rivaling the United States.
A cornerstone of China’s strategy is also the recogni-
tion that its national security ultimately depends on
a strong, internationally competitive economy. With
this in mind, China increasingly turns to Africa not
only for resources to fuel its development, but also for
markets to sustain its growing economy and ultimate-
ly support its longer-term aspirations to surpass the
United States as the world’s preeminent power.
An important but secondary theme of this mono-
graph is that Africa has become an attractive trading
partner for China not only for its natural resources,
but as a growing market. Africa’s rapid growth since
2000 has occurred not just because of higher commod-
ity prices, but, more importantly, because of other fac-
tors, including improved political governance, macro-
economic stability, microeconomic reforms, increased
globalization, urbanization, an expanding labor force,
and a rising middle class. Mr. Brown argues that
China has been at least 10 years ahead of American
firms in strategic perceptions and thinking about Af-
rica’s economic promise. While many in the West re-
main Afro-pessimists, he says, the Chinese have been
guarded Afro-optimists or, perhaps more accurately,
iv
Afro-realists who recognize both the continent’s great
promise and significant risk.
SSI is pleased to offer this monograph in fulfill-
ment of its mission to assist U.S. Army and DoD se-
nior leaders and strategic thinkers in understanding
the key issues of the day.

DOUGLAS C. LOVELACE, JR.
Director
Strategic Studies Institute
v

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
DAVID E. BROWN is a career member of the Senior
Foreign Service, who joined the Africa Center for
Strategic Studies (ACSS) as Senior Diplomatic Advi-
sor in August 2011. His prior Africa experience in-
cludes serving as the Senior Advisor to the J-5 (Strat-
egy, Plans, and Programs) Director of the U.S. Africa
Command (AFRICOM) in Stuttgart, Germany; three
times as Deputy Chief of Mission at U.S. Embassies in
Cotonou, Benin; Nouakchott, Mauritania; and Ouaga-
dougou, Burkina Faso; and as Economic Officer at the
U.S. Consulate-General in Lubumbashi, Democratic
Republic of the Congo. Mr. Brown’s non-Africa over-
seas tours have been as Consul General in Chengdu,
China, and Economic Officer in Beijing; Tokyo, Japan;
and Moscow, Russia. He has also served in Washing-
ton, DC, as the Director of the Office of Environmental
Policy; as Economic Officer in the Bureau of Econom-
ic, Energy, and Business Affairs (EEB) responsible for
trade policy with developing countries, including Af-
rica; and on the Canada desk, with responsibilities for
economic, consular, and law enforcement issues. Prior
to joining the U.S. Department of State, he worked in
Miami as the business manager of the Latin American
Bureau of CBS News. Mr. Brown holds a B.A. in gov-
ernment (political science) from Cornell University;
an MBA from the University of Chicago, specializing
in finance; and an MBA from the University of Lou-
vain, Belgium, with majors in econometrics and inter-
national business.
vii