Hedging Strategies in Southeast Asia: ASEAN, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam and their Relations with China

163 Pages·2022·4.863 MB·English

by  Alfred Gerstl

Hedging Strategies in
Southeast Asia
Introducing a re-conceptualized comprehensive hedging framework, this
book analyses the relations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN), Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam with China in the con-
text of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the South China Sea dispute.
The author argues that ASEAN and the three Southeast Asian govern-
ments pursue a hedging strategy towards the rising China. They seek closer
economic relations with Beijing while maintaining strong security relations
with Washington. Hedging expands the strategic options of small and mid-
dle powers which are in Neorealism often restricted to bandwagoning and
balancing. A hedging strategy, however, can simultaneously contain both el-
ements of bandwagoning (e.g., in economics) and balancing (e.g., in security
affairs). By examining the relations of ASEAN, Malaysia, the Philippines,
and Vietnam with China, but also the US as well as additional partners such
as Japan, Australia, India, South Korea, Russia, and the European Union,
the book puts forward a new, re-conceptualized hedging concept that com-
bines foreign and security policy with economics.
Adding significant new empirical knowledge, the book will be of interest
to researchers in the fields of International Relations, Security Studies, Po-
litical Geography, Economics, History, and Asian Studies.
Alfred Gerstl is Associate Professor at the Department of Asian Studies,
Palacký University in Olomouc, Czech Republic and Adjunct Professor at
the University of Vienna, Austria. A specialist on International Relations in
the Indo- Pacific, notably on Southeast Asia and China’s rise, symbolized in the
Belt and Road Initiative, he is also President of the Central European Insti-
tute of Asian Studies (CEIAS), a transnational think tank.
Routledge Contemporary Southeast Asia Series
The aim of this series is to publish original, high-quality work by both new
and established scholars on all aspects of Southeast Asia.
The Protection of Refugees in Southeast Asia
A Legal Fiction?
Sébastien Moretti
International Norms and Local Politics in Myanmar
Yukiko Nishikawa
Pathways for Irregular Forces in Southeast Asia
Mitigating Violence with Non-State Armed Groups
Atsushi Yasutomi, Rosalie Arcala Hall and Saya Kiba
Okinawan Women’s Stories of Migration
From War Brides to Issei
Johanna Zulueta
Myanmar’s Peace Process and the Role of Middle Power States
Chiraag Roy
Conflict, Continuity and Change in Social Movements in Southeast Asia
Abdul Rohman
Hedging Strategies in Southeast Asia
ASEAN, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam and their
Relations with China
Alfred Gerstl
For more information about this series, please visit: www.routledge.com/
Routledge-Contemporary-Southeast-Asia-Series/book-series/RCSEA
Hedging Strategies in
Southeast Asia
ASEAN, Malaysia, the Philippines, and
Vietnam and their Relations with China
Alfred Gerstl
First published 2022
by Routledge
4 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
and by Routledge
605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2022 Alfred Gerstl
The right of Alfred Gerstl to be identified as author of this work
has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the
Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or
reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical,
or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including
photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or
retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks
or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and
explanation without intent to infringe.
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Gerstl, Alfred, 1971– author.
Title: Hedging in Southeast Asia : ASEAN, Malaysia, the
Philippines, and Vietnam and their relations with China /
Alfred Gerstl.
Description: Abingdon, Oxon ; New York, NY : Routledge, 2022. |
Series: Routledge contemporary Southeast Asia series | Includes
bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2022000172 (print) | LCCN 2022000173 (ebook) |
ISBN 9781032075167 (hardback) | ISBN 9781032079400 (paperback) |
ISBN 9781003212164 (ebook)
Subjects: LCSH: Southeast Asia—Foreign economic relations—
China. | China—Foreign economic relations—Southeast Asia. |
Southeast Asia—Foreign relations—China. | China—Foreign
relations—Southeast Asia. | Balance of power.
Classification: LCC HF1591.Z4 C6375 2022 (print) |
LCC HF1591.Z4 (ebook) | DDC 337.1/590951—dc23/eng/20220121
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2022000172
LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2022000173
ISBN: 978-1-032-07516-7 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-1-032-07940-0 (pbk)
ISBN: 978-1-003-21216-4 (ebk)
DOI: 10.4324/9781003212164
Typeset in Times New Roman
by codeMantra
Contents
List of tables vii
List of abbreviations ix
Foreword xi
Abstract xiii
1 The Belt and Road Initiative, Southeast Asia, and the South
China Sea – an overview 1
1.1 Introduction of the topic and research questions 1
1.2 The Belt and Road Initiative 5
1.3 Southeast Asia in the BRI 8
1.4 The South China Sea dispute 10
2 The theoretical-methodological framework:
a re-conceptualized hedging concept 15
2.1 Hedging – a plurality of concepts 15
2.2 Introducing a re-conceptualized hedging concept 19
2.3 Application of hedging on Southeast Asia:
Introductory remarks 24
3 ASEAN’s hedging strategy towards China 27
3.1 Introduction 27
3.2 ASEAN’s relations with China 29
3.3 ASEAN’s hedging strategy – a strategy without alternatives 30
3.3.1 ASEAN’s perceptions of risks and opportunities 30
3.3.2 Political-diplomatic engagement 34
3.3.3 Economic engagement 36
3.3.4 Limited balancing 38
3.3.5 Limited bandwagoning 41
3.4 Conclusion 42
vi Contents
4 Malaysia’s hedging strategy towards China under Mahathir
Mohamad 2.0 46
4.1 Introduction 46
4.2 Malaysia, the BRI, and the South China Sea dispute 47
4.3 Malaysia’s cohesive hedging strategy 50
4.3.1 Mahathir’s perceptions of risks and opportunities 50
4.3.2 Political-diplomatic engagement 54
4.3.3 Economic engagement 57
4.3.4 Limited balancing 59
4.3.5 Limited bandwagoning 62
4.4 Conclusion 63
5 The Philippines’s hedging strategy towards China
under Rodrigo Duterte 66
5.1 Introduction 66
5.2 The Philippines, the BRI, and the South China Sea dispute 67
5.3 The Philippines’s reactive hedging strategy 71
5.3.1 Duterte’s perceptions of risks and opportunities 71
5.3.2 Political-diplomatic engagement 76
5.3.3 Economic engagement 78
5.3.4 Limited balancing 80
5.3.5 Limited bandwagoning 84
5.4 Conclusion 85
6 Vietnam’s hedging strategy towards China 89
6.1 Introduction 89
6.2 Vietnam, the BRI, and the South China Sea dispute 90
6.3 Vietnam’s robust hedging strategy 95
6.3.1 Vietnam’s perceptions of risks and opportunities 95
6.3.2 Political-diplomatic engagement 99
6.3.3 Economic engagement 101
6.3.4 Limited balancing 104
6.3.5 Limited bandwagoning 108
6.4 Conclusion 109
7 Conclusion: similarities and differences of the four
hedging strategies 112
References 119
Index 145
Tables
2.1 Hedging – components and criteria 24
3.1 ASEAN’s hedging strategy towards China (2013–2021) 44
4.1 Malaysia’s hedging strategy towards China under Mahathir
(2018–2020) 65
5.1 The Philippines’s hedging strategy towards China under
Duterte (2016–2021) 88
6.1 Vietnam’s hedging strategy towards China (2013–2021) 111

Abbreviations
16(17)+1 China’s cooperation format in Central Eastern and
Southeastern Europe
1MDB 1Malaysia Development fund
ADB Asian Development Bank
ADMM+ ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus
AEC ASEAN Economic Community
AFC Asian Financial Crisis
AIES Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy
AIIB Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
AMM ASEAN Ministerial Meeting [of the Foreign Ministers]
AMTI Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative
APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
APSC ASEAN Political-Security Community
APT ASEAN Plus Three
ARF ASEAN Regional Forum
ARIA Asia Reassurance Initiative Act
ASCC ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations
BN Barisan Nasional
BRI Belt and Road Initiative
CAFTA China-ASEAN Free Trade Area
CEIAS Central European Institute of Asian Studies
CFR Council on Foreign Relations
CLCS Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf
CoC Code of Conduct
COMECON Council for Mutual Economic Assistance
COSCO China Ocean Shipping Company
COVID-19 Corona virus disease 2019
CPC Communist Party of China
CPTTP Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-
Pacific Partnership
DFA Department of Foreign Affairs of the Philippines
DOC ASEAN-China Declaration of Conduct on the Parties in
the South China Sea