Guide to Methods & Tools for Airline Flight Safety Analysis

198 Pages·2003·4.49 MB·English

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Guide to

METHODS & TOOLS

FOR AIRLINE
FLIGHT SAFETY
ANALYSIS

Prepared by: GAIN Working Group B, Analytical Methods and Tools

Second Edition – June 2003
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GAIN Guide to Methods & Tools for Airline Flight Safety Analysis

Table of Contents
Page
Foreword...................................................................................................................................v
Acknowledgements.................................................................................................................vi
1.0 Introduction.......................................................................................................................1
1.1 Purpose of Guide.........................................................................................................1
1.2 GAIN Overview..........................................................................................................1
1.3 Working Group B: Analytical Methods and Tools .....................................................1
1.4 Scope...........................................................................................................................2
1.5 Definitions...................................................................................................................2
1.6 Review of Methods and Tools.....................................................................................2
1.7 Organization of this Guide..........................................................................................3
1.8 Changes Made to this Edition of the Guide.................................................................4
1.9 Guide Update and Feedback........................................................................................5
2.0 Application of Analytical Tools to Airline Flight Safety...............................................6
2.1 Types of Airline Flight Safety Data.........................................................................6
2.1.1 Occurrence Reports..........................................................................................7
2.1.2 Digital Flight Data............................................................................................8
2.1.3 Safety Audits and Assessments........................................................................8
2.2 Types of Tools for Airline Flight Safety Analysis..................................................8
2.2.1 Flight Safety Event Reporting and Analysis Systems......................................8
2.2.2 Flight Data Monitoring Analysis and Visualization Tools...............................9
2.2.3 Human Factors Analysis Tools......................................................................10
2.2.4 Special Purpose Analytical Tools...................................................................10
2.3 Summary..................................................................................................................12
3.0 Flight Safety Event Reporting and Analysis Systems .................................................13
3.1 Safety Report Management and Analysis Systems..............................................14
• Aeronautical Events Reports Organizer (AERO)................................................14
• Aviation Quality Database (AQD).......................................................................15
• AVSiS ..................................................................................................................16
• British Airways Safety Information System (BASIS).........................................17
• First Launch Safety Report System (SRS)...........................................................18
• INDICATE Safety Program.................................................................................19
3.2 Descriptive Statistics and Trend Analysis............................................................20
• HeliStat................................................................................................................20
• Microsoft Excel....................................................................................................21
• Statgraphics Plus..................................................................................................22
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GAIN Guide to Methods & Tools for Airline Flight Safety Analysis

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4.0 Flight Data Monitoring Analysis and Visualization Tools........................................24
• Aircraft Flight Analysis & Safety Explore (AirFASE)........................................25
• Analysis Ground Station (AGS)..........................................................................26
• Aviation Performance Measuring System (APMS).............................................26
• AVSCAN.flight...................................................................................................27
• BASIS Flight Data Tools.....................................................................................28
• Cockpit Emulator for Flight Analysis (CEFA)....................................................29
• Event Measurement System (EMS).....................................................................29
• FlightAnalyst........................................................................................................30
• FlightTracer..........................................................................................................31
• FlightViz..............................................................................................................31
• FltMaster..............................................................................................................32
• GRAF Vision – Flight Data Animator.................................................................32
• Ground Recovery & Analysis Facility (GRAF) for Windows and PERMIT......33
• Line Operations Monitoring System (LOMS).....................................................34
• Recovery, Analysis, & Presentation System (RAPS) & Insight..........................35
• Software Analysis for Flight Exceedance (SAFE)..............................................35
5.0 Human Factors Analysis Tools....................................................................................37
• Aircrew Incident Reporting System (AIRS)........................................................37
• Cabin Procedural Investigation Tool (CPIT).......................................................38
• Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)...........................39
• Integrated Process for Investigating Human Factors ..........................................40
• Procedural Event Analysis Tool (PEAT).............................................................41
• Ramp Error Decision Aid (REDA)......................................................................42
• ReVision..............................................................................................................43
6.0 Special Purpose Analytical Tools..................................................................................45
6.1 Occurrence Investigation and Analysis................................................................46
• Investigation Organizer........................................................................................46
• REASON 5...........................................................................................................47
• TapRooT..............................................................................................................48
6.2 Text/Data Mining and Data Visualization............................................................50
• Aviation Safety Data Mining Workbench...........................................................50
• Brio Intelligence 6................................................................................................51
• FERRET Q...........................................................................................................52
• NetOwl.................................................................................................................53
• PolyAnalyst..........................................................................................................54
• QUORUM Perilog...............................................................................................55
• Spotfire.................................................................................................................56
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GAIN Guide to Methods & Tools for Airline Flight Safety Analysis

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6.3 Risk Analysis...........................................................................................................58
• @RISK.................................................................................................................58
• Fault Tree+ (Event Tree Module).........................................................................59
• Fault Tree+ (Fault Tree Module)..........................................................................61
• FaultrEASE..........................................................................................................62
• Markov Latent Effects Tool for Organizational and Operational
Safety Assessment ..........................................................................................63
• Quantitative Risk Assessment System.................................................................65
• RISKMAN...........................................................................................................66
• WinNUPRA.........................................................................................................67
7.0 Analytical Methods.........................................................................................................68
7.1 Descriptive Statistics and Trend Analysis.............................................................68
• Characterization/Trend/Threshold Analysis........................................................68
7.2 Human Factors Analysis.........................................................................................69
• Reason Model......................................................................................................69
7.3 Occurrence Investigation and Analysis.................................................................70
• Integrated Safety Investigation Methodology (ISIM)..........................................70
• Multilinear Events Sequencing (MES)................................................................70
7.4 Risk Analysis............................................................................................................71
• Fault Hazard Analysis (FHA)..............................................................................71
• Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) / Failure Modes, Effects,
and Criticality Analysis (FMECA).................................................................72
• Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)..................................................................72
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GAIN Guide to Methods & Tools for Airline Flight Safety Analysis

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Appendices
Appendix A: Example Applications of Selected Tools.......................................................A-1
Safety Report Management and Analysis Systems
A.1 Aviation Quality Database..................................................................A-2
A.2 AvSiS...................................................................................................A-14
Descriptive Statistics and Trend Analysis Tools
A.3 HeliStat...............................................................................................A-20
A.4 Microsoft Excel..................................................................................A-25
Flight Data Visualization Tools
A.5 FlightTracer.......................................................................................A-32
Human Factors Analysis Tools
A.6 Aircrew Incident Reporting System..................................................A-37
A.7 Procedural Event Analysis Tool........................................................A-46
Text/Data Mining Tools
A.8 Aviation Safety Data Mining Workbench.........................................A-52
A.9 PolyAnalyst.......................................................................................A-59
Appendix B: Capabilities and Features of Flight Safety Event Reporting and
Analysis Systems...........................................................................................B-1
Appendix C: Capabilities and Features of FOQA/Digital Flight Data Analysis Tools......C-1
Appendix D: Methods and Tools Under Development......................................................D-1
Human Factor Analysis
• Flight Crew Human Factors Integration Tool...................................D-2
Risk Analysis
• Aircraft Performance Risk Assessment Model (APRAM)...............D-2
• Flight Operations Risk Assessment System (FORAS).....................D-3
Appendix E: List of Acronyms...........................................................................................E-1
Appendix F: Feedback Form..............................................................................................F-1
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GAIN Guide to Methods & Tools for Airline Flight Safety Analysis

Foreword
This guide to methods and tools useful or potentially useful for airline flight safety analysis is the
first in a continuing series that the Global Aviation Information Network (GAIN) Working
Group B (Analytical Methods and Tools) plans to issue. In its efforts to increase the awareness
of analytical methods and tools in the aviation community, Working Group (WG) B has begun to
identify and review analytical methods and tools to support the major segments of aviation,
focusing initially on airline flight safety. WG B has also begun to identify and document
analytical methods and tools for safety analysis in air traffic management. In the future, the WG
plans to address analytical methods and tools to support other aviation segments such as airline
maintenance safety, and airport safety.
This guide is not a comprehensive inventory of analytical methods and tools that could be used
in airline flight safety analysis. Rather, the intent of the WG in this second edition of the Guide
is to document an expanded set of methods and tools that appear useful to airlines in particular,
as well as other aircraft operators, together with some example applications of how these tools
could be applied in flight safety analysis. The group would like to receive feedback on the
experience that the aviation community has had with the methods and tools included in this issue
as well as suggestions for additional methods and tools with which they are familiar. The reader
should view this guide as a living document that will be updated periodically with improved
coverage of methods and tools.

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GAIN Guide to Methods & Tools for Airline Flight Safety Analysis

Acknowledgements
The following GAIN WG B members were primarily responsible for the preparation of this
Second Edition of the guide to methods and tools for airline flight safety analysis:
Geoff Gosling, Aviation System Planning Consultant
Andy Muir, FAA Office of System Safety
Christina Hunt, Phaneuf Associates Incorporated (PAI)
Grant Schneemann, Abacus Technology Corporation
Jean-Jacques Speyer, Airbus
WG B members and others who contributed their ideas and comments on this Second
Edition of the guide, who assisted in the review and documentation of specific methods and
tools, or who conducted an independent review are as follows:

Sergei Ananyan, Megaputer Intelligence Jeff Julias, Scientech Incorporated
Incorporated Thom Mayer, Austin Digital Incorporated
Robert Batson, University of Alabama Michael McGreevy, NASA Ames
Jim Blanchard, FleetSecure, LLC Geoff McIntyre, FAA Office of System Safety
Mark Blazy, FAA Office of System Safety Dominique Mineo, CEFA Aviation
Jefferey Bogan, Stransim Aeronautics Mike Moodi, Boeing Commercial Airplane
Corporation Group
David Bristol, Palisade Corporation Patrick Moylan, Abacus Technology
Tom Chidester, NASA Ames Corporation
Peter Clapp, Spirent Systems Zohreh Nazeri, MITRE Corporation
Simon Earthrowl, First Launch Jari Nisula, Airbus
Carolyn Edwards, FAA Office of Lee Nguyen, FAA Aircraft Certification Service
System Safety Tom O’Kane, formerly of British Airways
Tim Fuller, AvSoft Michael Poole, Flightscape Incorporated
Yuri Gawdiak, NASA Alexander Pufahl, SimAuthor Incorporated
Sue Glyde, Superstructure Eddie Rogan, British Airways
Michael Goodfellow, International Air Transport Alex Richman, AlgoPlus Consulting
Association Shifra Richman, AlgoPlus Consulting
Don Gunther, Continental Airlines Simon Rose, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Keith Hagy, Air Line Pilots Association, Edward Skompski, System Improvements
International Nigel Summerhayes, British Airways
Tamas Igloi, Teledyne Controls Brad Wacker, FAA Office of System Safety
Jason Elliot Jones, Decision Systems Jack Wojciech, formerly of FAA Office of
Incorporated System Safety

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