Guide for making acute risk decisions

224 Pages·2020·3.37 MB·English

by  CCPS (Center for Chemical Process Safety)

GUIDE FOR MAKING ACUTE
RISK DECISIONS

GUIDE FOR MAKING ACUTE
RISK DECISIONS
CENTER FOR CHEMICAL PROCESS SAFETY
of the
AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF CHEMICAL ENGINEERS
New York, NY
This edition first published 2020
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CONTENTS
Contents................................................................................................... v
List of Tables .......................................................................................... xi
List of Figures ....................................................................................... xiii
Acronyms and Abbreviations ................................................................. xv
Glossary ................................................................................................ xix
Acknowledgements .............................................................................. xxxi
Preface ...............................................................................................xxxiii
Introduction ........................................................................................... 35
1.1 History of Approaches to Process Safety Management ................ 35
1.2 The Paradigm of Risk-Based Process Safety Management ........... 36
1.2.1 Risk Based Process Safety (RBPS) Management .................... 36
1.2.2 Risk Decisions Characteristics ............................................... 39
1.3 A Risk Decision Making Method ................................................... 40
1.4 Road Map and Relationship of this Book with Other Material ..... 41
1.5 Risk Decisions during Process Life Cycle ..................................... 43
1.6 Pros and cons ............................................................................... 44
1.7 Summary ...................................................................................... 44
Key Concepts in Risk Management ....................................................... 47
2.1 Risk Management Process ............................................................ 47
2.2 Risk Identification – Risk Scenario ............................................... 47
2.2.1 Risk Identification .................................................................. 49
2.3 Risk Analysis - Consequences and Frequency .............................. 49
2.3.1 Consequences and Impacts .................................................... 50
2.3.2 Frequency ............................................................................... 50
2.3.3 Risk Estimation ....................................................................... 51
2.4 Risk Evaluation ............................................................................. 56
2.4.1 Decision criteria ..................................................................... 56
2.4.2 Qualitative, Semi-Quantitative and Quantitative Risk Criteria
......................................................................................................... 59

v
vi GUIDE FOR MAKING ACUTE RISK DECISIONS
2.4.3 Risk Reduction Factor ............................................................ 61
2.5 Summary ...................................................................................... 62
Understanding Process Hazards, Consequences and Risks .................. 63
3.1 Process Hazards ........................................................................... 63
3.1.1. Acute Toxicity ........................................................................ 63
3.1.2 Flammability and Explosivity.................................................. 67
3.1.3 Chemical Reactivity ................................................................ 70
3.1.4 Significant or Large Environmental Release Hazards ............ 72
3.1.5 Other Process Hazards ........................................................... 72
3.2 Risk Identification ......................................................................... 73
3.3 Consequences and Impacts .......................................................... 73
3.4 Frequency ..................................................................................... 74
3.5 Risk ............................................................................................... 76
Risk Decisions and Strategies................................................................ 79
4.1 Objectives and attributes .............................................................. 79
4.1.1 Objectives ............................................................................... 79
4.1.2 Attributes ................................................................................ 79
4.2 Process Life Cycle and Alternatives. ............................................ 81
4.3 The Decision Process .................................................................... 82
4.3.1 Define the Problem. ................................................................ 82
4.3.2 Evaluate the Baseline Risk ..................................................... 83
4.3.3 Identify the Alternatives ......................................................... 83
4.3.4 Screen the Alternatives .......................................................... 84
4.3.5 Make the Decision .................................................................. 84
4.4 Objectives and Outcomes ............................................................. 84
4.5 Tradeoffs ....................................................................................... 85
4.6 Uncertainty ................................................................................... 87
4.7 Risk Tolerance .............................................................................. 90
4.8 Linked Decisions ........................................................................... 91
4.9 Decision trees ............................................................................... 92
Decision Making .................................................................................... 95
5.1 Defining the Decision Problem ..................................................... 95
CONTENTS vii
5.1.1 Types of Decisions .................................................................. 95
5.2 Selecting a Decision Tool .............................................................. 97
5.2.1 Progression of Risk Analysis Tools ......................................... 97
5.2.2 Factors in Decision Tool Selection ......................................... 98
5.3 Assembling the Appropriate Assessment Resources .................. 101
5.3.1 Team Members ..................................................................... 101
5.3.2 Opening Meeting .................................................................. 104
5.3.2 Tools/Methods ...................................................................... 104
5.3.3 Time ...................................................................................... 105
5.4 Define decision criteria............................................................... 105
5.4.1 Process Safety Risk Criteria ................................................. 105
5.4.2 Other Criteria ....................................................................... 107
5.5 Making the decision.................................................................... 107
5.5.1 Characteristics of Decision Aids ........................................... 107
5.5.2 Appling the Decision Tools, Aids, and Criteria ..................... 108
5.5.3 Recognizing and Dealing with Uncertainties ....................... 111
5.5.4 Recognizing the Need to Escalate the Decision ................... 113
5.6 Finalizing decision and the approval process ............................. 114
5.7 Communicating, Documenting, and implementing the Decision 114
5.7 Summary .................................................................................... 116
Potential Decision Traps ...................................................................... 117
6.1 Introduction ................................................................................ 117
6.2. Anchoring Trap .......................................................................... 117
6.2.1 Anchoring Trap Example, Titanic ......................................... 118
6.2.2 Countering the Anchoring Trap ............................................ 118
6.3 Status-Quo Trap .......................................................................... 119
6.3.1 Status Quo Examples ............................................................ 119
6.3.2 Countering the Status-Quo Trap .......................................... 120
6.4 Sunk-cost and escalation of commitment trap ............................ 120
6.4.1 Countering the Sunk-Cost Trap ............................................ 121
6.5 Confirming-Evidence Trap .......................................................... 121
6.5.1 Countering the Confirming Evidence Trap ........................... 122