Guidance document MAN-MADE hazards and ACCIDENTAL AIRCRAFT CRASH hazards ...

143 Pages·2017·2.35 MB·English

Advanced Safety Assessment
ASAMPSA_E
Methodologies: extended PSA

"NUCLEAR FISSION "
Safety of Existing Nuclear Installations

Contract 605001

Report 6: Guidance document
MAN-MADE hazards and
ACCIDENTAL AIRCRAFT CRASH hazards modelling and implementation
in extended PSA

Reference ASAMPSA_E
Technical report ASAMPSA_E/WP21&WP22 / D50.20/ 2017-38
Reference IRSN PSN/RES/SAG/2017- 00013

S. Kahia (NRG), H. Brinkman (NRG), A. Bareith (NUBIKI), T. Siklossy (NUBIKI), T. Vinot
(IRSN), T. Mateescu (IRSN), J. Espargillière (IRSN),L. Burgazzi (ENEA), I. Ivanov (TUS),
D. Bogdanov (TUS), P. Groudev (INRNE), S. Ostapchuk (SSTC), O. Zhabin (SSTC), T.
Stojka (VUJE), R. Alzbutas (LEI), M. Kumar (LR), M. Nitoi (RATEN ICN), M. Farcasiu
(RATEN ICN), M. Borysiewicz (NCBJ), K. Kowal (NCBJ), S. Potempski (NCBJ)

Period covered: from 01/07/2013 to 31/12/2016 Actual submission date: 31/12/2016
Start date of ASAMPSA_E: 01/07/2013 Duration: 42 months
WP No: 21/22 Lead topical coordinator : H. Brinkman, S. Potempski His organization name : NRG, NCBJ

Project co-funded by the European Commission Within the Seventh Framework Programme (2013-2016)
Dissemination Level
PU Public Yes
RE Restricted to a group specified by the partners of the ASAMPSA_E pro- No
ject
CO Confidential, only for partners of the ASAMPSA_E project No
Advanced Safety Assessment
ASAMPSA_E
Methodologies: extended PSA

ASAMPSA_E Quality Assurance page
Partners responsible of the document : IRSN
Nature of document Technical report
Reference(s) Technical report WP21&WP22 / D50.20/ 2017-38
Reference IRSN PSN/RES/SAG/2017-00013
Title Report 6: Guidance document - MAN-MADE hazards and ACCIDENTAL AIR-
CRAFT CRASH hazards modelling in extended PSA
Author(s) S. Kahia (NRG), H. Brinkman (NRG), A. Bareith (NUBIKI), T. Siklossy (NUBIKI),
T. Vinot (IRSN), T. Mateescu (IRSN), J. Espargillière (IRSN),L. Burgazzi
(ENEA), I. Ivanov (TUS), D. Bogdanov (TUS), P. Groudev (INRNE), S. Ostap-
chuk (SSTC), O. Zhabin (SSTC), T. Stojka (VUJE), R. Alzbutas (LEI), M. Kumar
(LR), M. Nitoi (ICN), M. Farcasiu (ICN), M. Borysiewicz (NCBJ), K. Kowal
(NCBJ), S. Potempski (NCBJ)
Delivery date 31th December 2016
Topical area PSA, external hazards, man-made hazards, aircraft crash, extended PSA
For Journal & Conf. papers No

Summary :
This report provides guidance on modelling and implementation of MAN-MADE hazards and ACCIDENTAL AIRCRAFT
CRASH hazards in Extended Level 1 PSA.
This report is a deliverable of the ASAMPSA_E work packages WP21 (“Initiating events (internal and external haz-
ards) modelling”) and WP22 (“How to model and introduce hazards in L1 PSA and all possibilities of events combi-
nations”) aiming at identifying good practices on the modelling and implementation of extreme events related
hazards of low probability in L1 PSA.
The End Users recommendations formulated at the beginning of the ASAMPSA_E project (work package WP10) have
been taken into account as far as possible and also the recommendations of the ASAMPSA_E final survey and exter-
nal review of draft guidance reports.

Visa grid
Main author(s) : Verification Approval (Coordinator)
S. Kahia (NRG), S.
Name (s) H. Brinkman (NRG) E. Raimond (IRSN)
Potempski (NCBJ)
Date 16-01-2017 16-01-2017 16-01-2017
Guidance on the verification and
ASAMPSA_E improvement of SAM strategies
with L2 PSA

MODIFICATIONS OF THE DOCUMENT

Version Date Authors Pages or para- Description or comments
graphs modified
1 15-10-2015 S. Kahia (NRG), H. Brink- All First version available for
man (NRG) (coordinating the ASAMPSA_E technical
authors) meetings in November 2015,
Fontenay-aux-Roses, France
5 15-04-2016 M. Borysiewicz , K. Kowal, All First complete version
S. Potempski (NCBJ) coor- available for approval be-
dinating authors) with fore release for external
support of other authors review.
(see above)
6 23-05-2016 E. Raimond (IRSN) Final review (approval).
Editorial modifications and
few additions. There is a
need to suppress little du-
plication in the report in the
final version. Some con-
sistency modifications re-
lated to other ASAMPSA_E
reports shall also be done in
the final version.
7 13-11-2016 H. Brinkman (NRG), All End user comments related
S. Potempski (NCBJ) mostly to conclusions and
list of open issues added
following September 2016
workshop in Vienna. Editori-
al modifications made and
duplications removed.
8 14-12-2016 M. Kumar (LR) All Consistency modifications
with other ASAMPSA_E re-
ports done.
9 16-12-2016 H. Brinkman (NRG), All Final check, list of publica-
S. Potempski (NCBJ) tions corrected.
10 13-01-2017 E. Raimond Few Approval and final editorial
reading.

Report IRSN/PSN-RES-SAG 2017-00013 Technical report ASAMPSA_E/WP21&WP22 / D50.20/ 2017-38 3/142
Guidance on the verification and
ASAMPSA_E improvement of SAM strategies
with L2 PSA

LIST OF DIFFUSION

European Commission (scientific officer)

Name First name Organization
Passalacqua Roberto EC

ASAMPSA_E Project management group (PMG)

Name First name Organization
Raimond Emmanuel IRSN Project coordinator
Guigueno Yves IRSN WP10 coordinator
Decker Kurt Vienna University WP21 coordinator
Klug Joakim LRC WP22 coordinator until 2015-10-31
Kumar Manorma LRC WP22 coordinator from 2015-11-01
Wielenberg Andreas GRS WP30 coordinator until 2016-03-31
WP40 coordinator
Löffler Horst GRS
WP30 coordinator from 2016-04-01

REPRESENTATIVES OF ASAMPSA_E PARTNERS

Name First name Organization Name First name Organization
Grindon Liz AMEC NNC Pierre Cecile AREVA
Mustoe Julian AMEC NNC Kollasko Heiko AREVA
Cordoliani Vincent AREVA Pellisseti Manuel AREVA
Dirksen Gerben AREVA Michaud Laurent AREVA
Godefroy Florian AREVA Hasnaoui Chiheb AREXIS
Hurel François AREXIS Bordes Dominique EDF
Schirrer Raphael AREXIS Brac Pascal EDF
De Gelder Pieter Bel V Coulon Vincent EDF
Gryffroy Dries Bel V Gallois Marie EDF
Jacques Véronique Bel V Hibti Mohamed EDF
Van Rompuy Thibaut Bel V Jan Philippe EDF
Cazzoli Errico CCA Lopez Julien EDF
Vitázková Jirina CCA Nonclercq Philippe EDF
Passalacqua Roberto EC Panato Eddy EDF
Banchieri Yvonnick EDF Parey Sylvie EDF
Bernadara Pietro EDF Romanet François EDF
Bonnevialle Anne-Marie EDF Rychkov Valentin EDF
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Advanced Safety Assessment
ASAMPSA_E
Methodologies: extended PSA

Vasseur Dominique EDF Prošek Andrej JSI
Burgazzi Luciano ENEA Volkanovski Andrija JSI
Hultqvist Göran FKA Alzbutas Robertas LEI
Kähäri Petri FKA Matuzas Vaidas LEI
Karlsson Anders FKA Rimkevicius Sigitas LEI
Ljungbjörk Julia FKA Häggström Anna LRC
Pihl Joel FKA Klug Joakim LRC
Löffler Horst GRS Kumar Manorma LRC
Mildenberger Oliver GRS Olsson Anders LRC
Sperbeck Silvio GRS
Borysiewicz Mieczyslaw NCBJ
Tuerschmann Michael GRS
Kowal Karol NCBJ
Wielenberg Andreas GRS
Potempski Slawomir NCBJ
Benitez Francisco Jose IEC
La Rovere Stephano NIER
Del Barrio Miguel A. IEC
Vestrucci Paolo NIER
Serrano Cesar IEC
Brinkman Hans NRG
Apostol Minodora RATEN ICN
Kahia Sinda NRG
Farcasiu Mita RATEN ICN
Bareith Attila NUBIKI
Nitoi Mirela RATEN ICN
Lajtha Gabor NUBIKI
Groudev Pavlin INRNE
Siklossy Tamas NUBIKI
Stefanova Antoaneta INRNE
Caracciolo Eduardo RSE
Armingaud François IRSN
Morandi Sonia RSE
Bardet Lise IRSN
Dybach Oleksiy SSTC
Bonnet Jean-Michel IRSN
Gorpinchenko Oleg SSTC
Bonneville Hervé IRSN
Claus Etienne TRACTEBEL
Clement Christophe IRSN
Dejardin Philippe TRACTEBEL
Corenwinder François IRSN
Grondal Corentin TRACTEBEL
Denis Jean IRSN
Mitaille Stanislas TRACTEBEL
Duflot Nicolas IRSN
Oury Laurence TRACTEBEL
Duluc Claire-Marie IRSN
Yu Shizhen TRACTEBEL
Dupuy Patricia IRSN
Zeynab Umidova TRACTEBEL
Georgescu Gabriel IRSN
Bogdanov Dimitar TUS
Guigueno Yves IRSN
Ivanov Ivan TUS
Guimier Laurent IRSN
Holy Jaroslav UJV
Lanore Jeanne-Marie IRSN
Hustak Stanislav UJV
Laurent Bruno IRSN
Jaros Milan UJV
Ménage Frédéric IRSN
Kolar Ladislav UJV
Pichereau Frederique IRSN
Kubicek Jan UJV
Rahni Nadia IRSN
Decker Kurt UNIVIE
Raimond Emmanuel IRSN
Halada Peter VUJE
Rebour Vincent IRSN
Prochaska Jan VUJE
Scotti Oona IRSN
Stojka Tibor VUJE
Report IRSN/PSN-RES-SAG 2017-00013 Technical report ASAMPSA_E/WP21&WP22 / D50.20/ 2017-38 5/142
Advanced Safety Assessment
ASAMPSA_E
Methodologies: extended PSA

REPRESENTATIVE OF ASSOCIATED PARTNERS (External Experts Advisory Board (EEAB))

Name First name Company
Hirata Kazuta JANSI
Hashimoto Kazunori JANSI
Inagaki Masakatsu JANSI
Yamanana Yasunori TEPCO
Coyne Kevin US-NRC
González Michelle M. US-NRC

Report IRSN/PSN-RES-SAG 2017-00013 Technical report ASAMPSA_E/WP21&WP22 / D50.20/ 2017-38 6/142
Report 6: Guidance document – Modelling and Implementation of MAN-MADE Hazards and
ASAMPSA_E ACCIDENTAL AIRCRAFT CRASH Hazards in Extended PSA

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The goal of this report is to provide guidance on practices to model man-made hazards (mainly external fires and
explosions) and accidental aircraft crash hazards and implement them in extended Level 1 PSA. This report is a
joint deliverable of work package 21 (WP21) and work package 22 (WP22). The general objective of WP21 is to
provide guidance on all of the individual hazards selected at the first ASAMPSA_E End Users Workshop (May 2014,
Uppsala, Sweden). The objective of WP22 is to provide the solutions for purposes of different parts of man-made
hazards Level 1 PSA fulfilment. This guidance is focusing on man-made hazards, namely: external fires and explo-
sions, and accidental aircraft crash hazards. Guidance developed refers to existing guidance whenever possible.
The initial part of guidance (WP21 part) reflects current practices to assess the frequencies for each type of
hazards or combination of hazards (including correlated hazards) as initiating event for PSAs. The sources and
quality of hazard data, the elements of hazard assessment methodologies and relevant examples are discussed.
Classification and criteria to properly assess hazard combinations as well as examples and methods for assessment
of these combinations are included in this guidance. In appendixes additional material is presented with the
examples of practical approaches to aircraft crash and man-made hazard.
The following issues are addressed:
1) Hazard assessment methodologies, including issues related to hazard combinations.
2) Modelling equipment of safety related SSC,
3) HRA,
4) Emergency response,
5) Multi-unit issues.

Recommendations and also limitations, gaps identified in the existing methodologies and a list of open issues are
included.
At all stages of this guidance and especially from an industrial end-user perspective, one must keep in mind that
the development of man-made hazards probabilistic analysis must be conditioned to the ability to ultimately ob-
tain a representative risk analysis.
As it was recommended by end users (WP10), this guidance covers questions of developing integrated and/or sepa-
rated man-made PSA models. Methods to model the combinations/correlations/dependencies of hazards, possible
secondary effects, mitigating and aggravating factors are also proposed in the report. This report contains ap-
proaches to model mobile equipment but despite this fact, input data related to this (reliability and related hu-
man actions, assessment of time for its running) remains a source of significant uncertainty.
From an industrial end-user perspective, the PSA methodology must be proportionate to the importance of risks
(this can be also required by national laws such as the French Law). The adoption of a graded approach for Exter-
nal Hazards PSA would better focus resources and direct them to identify and address issues that present the high-
est significance to NPP Risks and Safety. Therefore, there is no relevance to use complex methodologies if a sim-
plified analysis gives sufficient and representative insights.
Report IRSN/PSN-RES-SAG 2017-00013 Technical report ASAMPSA_E/WP21&WP22 / D50.20/ 2017-38 6/142
Report 6: Guidance document – Modelling and Implementation of MAN-MADE Hazards and
ASAMPSA_E ACCIDENTAL AIRCRAFT CRASH Hazards in Extended PSA

ASAMPSA_E PARTNERS

The following table provides the list of the ASAMPSA_E partners involved in the development of this document.

1 Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety IRSN France
5 Lloyd's Register Consulting LRC Sweden
10 Nuclear Research and consultancy Group NRG Netherlands
11 IBERDROLA Ingeniería y Construcción S.A.U IEC Spain
12 Electricité de France EDF France
13 Lietuvos energetikos institutas (Lithuanian Energy Institute) LEI Lithuania
14 NUBIKI NUBIKI Hungary
17 NCBJ Institute NCBJ Poland
18 State Scientific and Technical Center for Nuclear and Radiation Safety SSTC Ukraine
19 VUJE VUJE Slovakia
25 Institute of nuclear research and nuclear energy – Bulgarian Academia of science INRNE Bulgaria
26 Regia Autonoma Pentru Activatati Nucleare Droberta Tr. Severin RA Suc INR/RAAN Romania
27 Technical University of Sofia – Research and Development Sector TUS Bulgaria

Report IRSN/PSN-RES-SAG 2017-00013 Technical report ASAMPSA_E/WP21&WP22 / D50.20/ 2017-38 7/142
Report 6: Guidance document – Modelling and Implementation of MAN-MADE Hazards and
ASAMPSA_E ACCIDENTAL AIRCRAFT CRASH Hazards in Extended PSA

CONTENT
MODIFICATIONS OF THE DOCUMENT................................................................................................................................................. 3
LIST OF DIFFUSION ............................................................................................................................................................................ 4
Executive SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................................................................... 6
ASAMPSA_E Partners ..................................................................................................................................................................... 7
CONTENT ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 8
GLOSSARY .................................................................................................................................................................................... 12
DEFINITIONS ................................................................................................................................................................................ 13
1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................................................ 16
1.1 Background ........................................................................................................................................................................... 16
1.2 Starting considerations .......................................................................................................................................................... 16
1.3 Structure of the report ............................................................................................................................................................ 18
2 DATA FOR HAZARD CHARACTERISATION ........................................................................................................................ 19
2.1 Data related to hazard sources ............................................................................................................................................... 19
2.2 Data related to plant design ................................................................................................................................................... 20
3 HAZARD ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGIES ........................................................................................................................ 22
3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................................... 22
3.1.1 External fire and explosion ............................................................................................................................................. 22
3.1.2 Aircraft crash .................................................................................................................................................................. 23
3.2 Hazard Categorization ........................................................................................................................................................... 24
3.2.1 External fire and explosion ............................................................................................................................................. 24
3.2.2 Aircraft crash .................................................................................................................................................................. 25
3.3 Frequency Assessment Methodology .................................................................................................................................... 27
3.3.1 External fire and explosion ............................................................................................................................................. 27
3.3.2 Aircraft crash .................................................................................................................................................................. 29
3.4 Consequence Analysis ........................................................................................................................................................... 30
3.5 Uncertainty Assessment ........................................................................................................................................................ 32
3.6 From hazard to initiating event .............................................................................................................................................. 33
3.6.1 External Fires and explosions ......................................................................................................................................... 33
3.6.2 Aircraft crash .................................................................................................................................................................. 34
3.7 Limitations and gaps in existing methods.............................................................................................................................. 36
3.7.1 External Fires and explosions ......................................................................................................................................... 36
3.7.2 Aircraft crash .................................................................................................................................................................. 36
4 HAZARDS COMBINATIONS .................................................................................................................................................... 38
4.1 External explosions ............................................................................................................................................................... 38
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Report 6: Guidance document – Modelling and Implementation of MAN-MADE Hazards and
ASAMPSA_E ACCIDENTAL AIRCRAFT CRASH Hazards in Extended PSA

4.1.1 Explosion hazard correlations ........................................................................................................................................ 38
4.1.2 Combinations of explosion and other external hazards .................................................................................................. 39
4.1.3 Screening of explosions and hazards combinations with explosions .............................................................................. 39
4.2 External fires ......................................................................................................................................................................... 41
4.2.1 Causally connected fire hazards – correlated fire hazards .............................................................................................. 42
4.2.2 Associated fire hazards ................................................................................................................................................... 43
4.2.3 Screening of fire ............................................................................................................................................................. 43
4.2.4 Examples of hazard combinations .................................................................................................................................. 45
4.2.5 Assessment of coincident hazards based on estimates of duration time of hazard ......................................................... 46
4.2.6 Worst case hazard combinations .................................................................................................................................... 46
4.3 Aircraft crash ......................................................................................................................................................................... 46
4.3.1 Identification of Hazard Combinations ........................................................................................................................... 47
4.3.2 Causally Connected Hazards .......................................................................................................................................... 47
4.3.3 Associated Hazards ........................................................................................................................................................ 48
4.3.4 Combination of Independent Hazards ............................................................................................................................ 48
4.3.5 Evaluation of Identified Hazard Combinations .............................................................................................................. 49
5 METHODS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF HAZARDS COMBINATIONS .............................................................................. 51
5.1 General description................................................................................................................................................................ 51
5.2 Data needs ............................................................................................................................................................................. 51
5.3 Initiating events ..................................................................................................................................................................... 51
5.4 Reference to known methods ................................................................................................................................................ 52
5.5 Best practices......................................................................................................................................................................... 54
6 STRUCTURE OF MAN-MADE HAZARDS AND AIRCRAFT CRASH PSA ......................................................................... 56
7 SOLUTION FOR THE MODELLING OF MAN_MADE HAZARDS AND AIRCRAFT CRASH FOR L1 PSA .................... 62
7.1 Use of L1 Internal Events and Hazards PSA ......................................................................................................................... 62
7.2 State of the Art Methodology for PSA Model Development ................................................................................................. 62
7.2.1 Consequence analysis of PSA Initiating Events ............................................................................................................. 62
7.2.2 Accident Sequences ........................................................................................................................................................ 66
7.2.3 Development of Accident Sequence Models .................................................................................................................. 67
7.3 Limitations and Gaps in Existing Methods ............................................................................................................................ 67
8 SOLUTION TO MODEL THE EQUIPMENT SSCS FOR MAN-MADE HAZARDS AND AIRCRAFT CRASH PSA .......... 69
8.1 Definition of Failure Modes for SSCs ................................................................................................................................... 69
8.2 Categorization of Failure Modes as Transient Initiating Events and Failures in Mitigation Systems.................................... 71
8.3 Event tree construction .......................................................................................................................................................... 71
8.3.1 Initiating events .............................................................................................................................................................. 71
8.3.2 Additional systems modelling ........................................................................................................................................ 73
8.4 Fault Tree Development ........................................................................................................................................................ 75
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