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Growth, Trade and Endogenous Technology: A Study of OECD Manufacturing PDF

212 Pages·1996·50.815 MB·English
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GROWTH, TRADE AND ENDOGENOUS TECHNOLOGY Growth, Trade and Endogenous Technology A Study of OECD Manufacturing Orlando A. Ochoa Lecturer ill Erollomics Imlilllio de ESludor SUI'eriores de Adminis/racion Camca.I', Venezuela FiTS! published in G~al Britain 1996 by MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingsloke, lIampshire RG21 6XS and u>ndon Companies and representatives throughoUi the world A calalogue r« ord for this blM>k is available from the British Library. ISBN 978-1-349-39659-7 ISBN 978-0-230-37778-3 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230377783 rirst published in the United Stales of America 1996 by S1', MARTIN'S PRESS, INC., Scholarly and Reference Division. 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. lOOtO ISBN 978.(J·312·15845·3 Library of Congress Cataloging·in·Publication Data Ochoa, Orlando A. Growth, lrade and emlugenous lechnulugy: a SllJdy ufOECD manufacturing I Orlando A. tkhoa. p. em. The ~sult of the authur's dvctnr~1 research al Brasenose evllcgc, Oxfurd_ Includes bibliographical refereoces and index. ISBN 9711..Q-J t2-1 51145-3 (cloth) 1. Manufactures-Econometric models. 2. Organizati()n fur £Conumic Coopcr~lion and Development_ I. Title. HD9720.5.02S 1996 J38.4'767--dc20 96-4259 CIP C> Orlando A. Ochoa 1996 All rights reserved, No reproduction, copy Or Iransmissi,m of this publication may be made without writtcn pemlissiun. No paragraph uf Ihis pUblicatiun may be reproduced. copied or lIansmittcd save with written pennissiun or in accurdance with tile provi~ions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1998, or under the tenns of any licence perrniuing limited copying issued by lhe Cupyright Licensing Agency. 90 Tottenham Cuun Road, London W LP 9HE. Any person who docs any unauthorised act in relation to this piblication may ~ liable 10 crimina! prosecution and civil claims for damages. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 96 To my parents To Charo Contents List o/Tables IX Ackllowledgemems Xl! Tnt['oduction: Growth and Endogenous Technology 1.1 Background I 1.2 Objectives of the Book 4 [.3 Structure of the Book 6 2 The New Theories of Endogenous Growth 8 2.1 From the neoclassical growth model to the Lucas-Romer approach R 2.2 Growlh with endogenous technological change: Inc Romer model r 2 2.3 The growth-trade link in the Romer model 16 3 The Issues, the Empirical Approach and the Data 19 3.1 The Romer model: fundamental issues and empirical predictions 20 3.2 An empirical specification 20 3.3 Statistical and methodological issues in cross-country growth analysis 31 3.4 The manufacturing sector's performance. research effort and human capital: characteristics of the data 35 4 Modelling Output Growth Across Manufacturing $eclOrs: An Initial Approach 47 4.1 The sample. the data and the variables 48 4.2 The contribution of capital to output growth in the basic neoclassical model 55 4.3 Capital, technology and output growth: a lirst approach 60 4.4 Summary of the findings and their implications 69 5 Evidence of Endogenous Technological Change Across OECD Manufacturing 71 5.1 The interaction between capital and sources of endogenous technology: the Romer model 71 vii viii Contents 5.2 Some mode! specification tests: the role of trade and other competing hypotheses 85 5.3 Summary of the findings and their implications 92 6 Research Human Capital, Investment and Trade: Further Empirical Evidence 96 6.1 Kesearch activities, human capital, and the catching-up hypothesis 97 6.2 Empirical determinants of Ihc pauern of investment across manufacturing sectors 105 6.3 The pallern of trade and the sources of comparative advantage: a long-run approach 108 6.4 Endogenous technology, human capital and Ihe patterns of investment and trade: findings and implications 119 7 The Impact of Government Policy on Output Growth Across OECD Manufacturing 124 7.1 An empirical assessment of the impact of national technology policy on output growth in manufacturing 126 7.2 Infrastructure and output growth in manufacturing 133 7.3 Mal;IlX;CUUUJuic policy anu output g,owth iu manufacturing 139 7.4 Policy issues: findings and implications 145 8 Conclusions 148 8.1 The empirical findings 148 8.2 The broader interprctation 156 Appendix J: Data Sources and Variable.s 159 Appendix 2: Further Econometric Result.s 165 Appendix 3: Descriptive Stati.fties 170 Notes 174 References 188 Index 195 List of Tables 3.1 Sectoral share of IOtal manufacturing in the aggregate 10lals of the sample of II DECO countries 39 3.2 Economic indicators for the manufacturing groups in the subsample of G-5 countries 41 3.3 Economic indicators for the manufacturing groups in the subsampJc ofG-O countries 42 3.4 Percentage share of professional, technical and related workers in the labour force at country level and the annual rate of change 45 3.5 Percentage share of administrative, executive and managerial workers in the labour force at country level 46 4.1 The contributions of alternative measures of capital to growth: cross-section estimates across OECD manufacturing 57 4.2 Simple extension of the neoclassical growth model: cross-section estimates across QECD manufacturing 61 4.3 Descriptive statistics on variables in low-investment and high-investment subsamples of manufacturing sectors 66 5.1 The Romer growth model: cross-section estimates across OECD manufacturing 73 5.2 Descriptive statistics on the partial coefficients of elasticity for GK. LRSE and LRSERW as predicted by growth equations 1-3 in Table 5.1: subsamples by groups of countries 80 5.3 Descriptive statistics on the partial coefficients of elasticity for GK and LRSE as predicted by growth equations \-3 in Table 5.1: subsamples by manufacturing sector 81 5.4 Mean values and standard deviations for selected variables according to subsamples. by manufacturing activities 83 5.5 Some tests on the robustness of growth estimates across OECD manufacturing 87 5.6 Results of further tests on the robustness of growth estimates across OECD manufacturing 90 6.1 Estimates of the detenninants of the rate of change in scientific human capital employed across OECD manufacturing, 1970-87 98 "

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