Groundwater Contamination: Use of Models in Decision-Making: Proceedings of the International Conference on Groundwater Contamination: Use of Models in Decision-Making, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 26–29 October 1987, Organized by the International Ground PDF
Preview Groundwater Contamination: Use of Models in Decision-Making: Proceedings of the International Conference on Groundwater Contamination: Use of Models in Decision-Making, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 26–29 October 1987, Organized by the International Ground
GROUNDWATER CONTAMINATION: USE OF MODELS IN DECISION-MAKING ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The editors gratefully acknowledge the sponsorship of the following organizations: * The Ministry of Housing, Physical Planning and Environment (VROM), Leidschendam, The Netherlands. * The Ministry of Transport and Public Works, The Hague, The Netherlands. * The United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). Groundwater Contamination: Use of Models in Decision-Making Proceedings of the International Conference on Groundwater Contamination: Use of Models in Decision-Making, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 26-29 October 1987, Organized by the International Ground Water Modeling Center (IGWMC), Indianapolis -Delft edited by G.Jousma International Ground Water Modeling Center, Delft, The Netherlands J. Bear Technion, Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel Y. Y. Haimes University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, U.S.A. F. Walter TNO Institute of Applied Geoscience, Delft, The Netherlands KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS DORDRECHT / BOSTON / LONDON Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data ISBN-13: 978-94-010-7533-6 e-ISBN-13:978-94-009-2301-0 001: 10.1007/978-94-009-2301-0 Published by Kluwer Academic Publishers, P.O. Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, The Netherlands. Kluwer Academic Publishers incorporates the publishing programmes of D. Reidel, Martinus Nijhoff, Dr W. Junk and MTP Press. Sold and distributed in the U.S.A. and Canada by Kluwer Academic Publishers, 101 Philip Drive, Norwell, MA 02061, U.S.A. In all other countries, sold and distributed by Kluwer Academic Publishers Group, P.O. Box 322,3300 AH Dordrecht, The Netherlands. All Rights Reserved © 1989 by Kluwer Academic Publishers Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1989 No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical including photocopying, recording or by any in formation storage and retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner. PREFACE The protection of groundwater resources has emerged in recent years as a high priority topic on the agenda of many countries. In responding to the growing concern over deteriorating groundwater quality, many countries are developing a comprehensive regulatory framework for the management of subsurface water resources with management referring to both quantity and quality aspects. Within this framework, groundwater models are rapidly coming to playa central role in the development of protection and rehabilitation strategies. These models provide forecasts of the future state of the groundwater aquifer systems and/or the unsaturated zone in response to proposed management initiatives. For example, models will predict the effects of implementing a proposed management scheme on water levels and on the transport and fate of pollutants. The models are now used in the formulation of policies and regulations, the issuing of permits, design of monitoring and data collection systems, and the development of enforcement actions. The growth in the use of these sophisticated tools has led to many unforeseen problems in groundwater management. Lingering issues include reliability of codes, quality assurance in model development and applications, efficient utiliza tion of human and material resources, technology transfer and training. Some issues have legal ramifications, as in cases where the applications of models have been contested in courts. Many parties interact in this modelling and decision-making process, including decision-makers at the political level, managers and professionals dealing with the planning, development, and protection of water resources, and engineers involved in remedial actions and clean-up operations. These groups may belong to national or regional water authorities, research organizations, industry, consulting firms, or universities. The major objective of the conference was to bring all these groups together and to provide a platform for discussing the role and function of models in groundwater management. Many conferences focus on either the management or the scientific aspects of modelling. In line with its main mission, the International Ground Water Modeling Center organized this conference to address the interaction between modellers and decision-makers. The conference's theme of concern over groundwater contamina tion was harmonious with the European Commission's decision to call 1987 the 'European Year of the Environment'. This conference addressed the following questions: • What role do models play in the management and decision-making process, and do models supply the necessary information? • What is the state-of -the-art of modelling for management, especially in the area of preventing and mitigating groundwater contamination? • Do modellers have enough understanding and knowledge of the processes taking place in the subsurface to construct realistic models, and do these models provide reliable information for planners? v VI • What kind of field information is needed for model calibration such that the model will provide the information required for decision-making? Are the levels of data collection and data management in line with model develop ment needs? • What are the key problems in the management of modelling groundwater systems and what can be done to resolve them? How can the quality of the modelling effort be ensured? Several important conclusions emerged during the conference, including the need for: • More scientific work associated with the modelling of groundwater systems. Expanding the scientific base would improve our understanding of the complex causal relationships among the various interacting components of the groundwater system. • A proper balance in the accuracy and precision among the different sets of data used as inputs to groundwater models. In particular, the level of uncer tainty in socio-economic data varies significantly from the level of uncertainty in hydrologic data. The same discrepancy exists between data on sources of contamination and data on geophysical parameters. A fundamental question arises as to whether we are allocating our resources for data collec tion purposes wisely and cost-effectively. • More awareness of the uncertainties associated with groundwater systems, and thus the incorporation of risk analysis in groundwater management models. Furthermore, the fact that often the data base is sparse, scarce, and inade quate should lead to increased efforts in the development and use of risk-based models in decision-making. • The development of more groundwater management models and especially those that incorporate multiple objectives, since most groundwater systems are characterized by multiple non-commensurate, conflicting, and competing objectives. In particular, when risks, costs, and other non-monetary benefits are considered, the single-objective management models become inadequate and may lead to fallacious results. • More appreciation of human factors in groundwater management models. Human errors are prevalent in almost all modelling stages: model conception, development, verification, validation, use, and interpretation. And, most importantly, human errors are prevalent in the control and implementation of decisions and policies. • More involvement of decision-makers (DMs) in the modelling process; they must participate in defining the problem and become part of its solution. There is an urgent need for supporting the modelling effort from 'above'. This, however, can be achieved only when the DMs develop trust and confi- vii dence in the modeller and the modelling process as a whole. It is worth noting that the generic term DMs connotes decision-makers of different types and levels: appointed, elected, commissioned; power brokers, special interest groups, stakeholders; etc. • More appreciation on the part of the modellers of the limitations of models. Although models aimed at management problems attempt to capture the essence and needs of the problem in the most effective way, they often fail to do so. The fact that only limited aspects can be modelled means that model results represent a partial picture: a skewed view of the real world. Therefore, what might seem logical to the modeller with one vision can be perceived as illogical to the DMs with broader perspectives. In view of the many uncertainties inherent in the use of models (e.g. those related to the way the models describe real world processes and those related to the data used for deriving model coefficients) the role of models should be expanded beyond merely a tool for providing predicted numerical values as input for management models. Through sensitivity analysis and parametric runs, models will lead to a better understanding of the considered groundwater system, provide information on trends and directions of development and thus improve management decisions. Yacov Y. Haimes, Jacob Bear, Chairman Co-chairman Scientific Programme Committee Scientific Programme Committee CONTENTS v PREFACE ORGANIZATION Scientific Programme Committee XI Organizing Committee XU xm Session Chairmen Invited Speakers XIV Panel Members XV CONTRIBUTIONS Opening and Introduction 1 International Standpoints 17 Topic 1: Risk Assessment and Management 39 Topic 2: Models in Regulation and Legislation 73 Topic 3: Quality Assurance in Modelling 109 Topic 4: Parameter Estimation and Stochastic Modelling 149 Topic 5: Modelling Heat and Contaminant Transport 229 Topic 6: Geo-chemical and Bio-chemical Modelling 353 Topic 7: Modelling of Fractured Rock Aquifers 433 Topic 8: Regional Groundwater Contamination Studies 477 Topic 9: Solid and Hazardous Waste Management Studies 553 Panel I: The Role of Data in Modelling 637 Panel 2: Models in Regulation 651 ORGANIZATION SCIENTIFIC PROGRAMME COMMITTEE Y.Y. Haimes University of Virginia, (chairman) Charlottesville, Virginia, USA J. Bear Technion, Israel Institute of Technology, ( co-chairman) Haifa, Israel G. Gambolati Institute of Applied Mathematics, Padua, Italy S.M. Gorelick U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California, USA P.K.M. van der Heijde International Ground Water Modeling Center, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA J. Kindler Warsaw Technical University, Warsaw, Poland M.R. Llamas Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain G. de Marsily Ecole Nationale Superieure des Mines de Paris, Fontainebleau, France J.W. Mercer GeoTrans, Inc., Reston, Virginia, USA E.J. Plate University of Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, FRG A.P. Vernimmen Water Authority of North-Holland, Haarlem, The Netherlands C. Young Water Research Centre, Marlow, UK xi ORGANIZING COMMITTEE F. Walter TNO Institute of Applied Geoscience, (chairman) Delft, The Netherlands G. Jousma International Ground Water Modeling (scientific secretary) Center, Delft, The Netherlands Ms. S. van de Graaf TNO Corporate Communication Department, (organizing secretary) The Hague, The Netherlands P. Bourdeau CEC, Directorate General for Science, Research and Development (DG-Xll), Brussels, Belgium J.D. Bredehoeft U.s. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California, USA W. Cramer National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection, Bilthoven, The Netherlands S. Dumitrescu UNESCO, Division Water Sciences, Paris, France J.J. Fried President European Institute for Water, Varese, Italy O.L. Loucks Holcomb Research Institute, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA W.J.c. Melgert TNO Corporate Communication Department, The Hague, The Netherlands E. Romijn International Secretary-General of the International Association of Hydrogeologists, Arnhem, The Netherlands xii
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