Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climatic Change: A Critical Appraisal of Simulations and Observations

599 Pages·1991·16.62 MB·English

by  M.E. Schlesinger (Eds.)

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Greenhouse-Gas-
Induced Climatic Change:
A Critical
Appraisal of Simulations
and Observations
Edited by
M.E. SCHLESINGER
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USA
ELSEVIER
Amsterdam — New York — Oxford — Tokyo 1991
ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBLISHERS B.V.
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Library of Congress Cataloglng-in-PublicatIon Data
Greenhouse-gas-iinduced climatic change : a critical appraisal of
simulations and observations / edited by M. Schlesinger.
p. cm. — (Developments in atmospheric science ; 19)
Papers from a Workshop on Greenhouse-Gas-induced Climatic Change:
A Critical Appraisal of Simulations and Observations, held at the
University of Massachusetts, Amherst, May 8-12, 1989.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-444-88351-7
1. Climatic changes—Mathematical models—Congresses.
2. Greenhouse gases—Mathematical models—Congresses. 3. Greenhouse
effect, Atmospheric—Mathematical models—Congresses.
4. Pa 1eoc1ima to 1ogy—Mathematical models—Congresses.
I. Schlesinger, M. E. (Michael Ε.) II. Workshop on Greenhouse-Gas
-induced Climatic Change: A Critical Appraisal of Simulations and
Observations (1989 : University of Massachusetts, Amherst)
I:I. Ser i es.
G; 981.8.C5G725 1991
551.6—dc20 91-3196
CIP
ISBN 0-444-88351-7
© Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., 1991
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any
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sion of the Publisher, Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., P.O. Box 211,1000 AE Amsterdam, Netherlands.
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Printed in The Netherlands
Preface ix
Preface
This book is the culmination of a Workshop on Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climatic
Change: A Critical Appraisal of Simulations and Observations which was held at the
University of Massachusetts, Amherst, during 8-12 May 1989. The objectives of the
Workshop were to: (1) present and evaluate the current status of climate model simu-
lations of greenhouse-gas-induced changes of both the equilibrium and nonequilibrium
(transient) climates; (2) present and assess the current status of the observations of global
and regional climates from the beginning of the industrial revolution to the present, circa
1850 to 1989; (3) present reconstructions of climatic change during the last millennium
to determine the "natural variability" of climate on the intra-century time scale; (4) crit-
ically evaluate whether or not the climate has changed from circa 1850 to 1989; and (5)
compare the observations with the model simulations to ascertain whether a greenhouse-
gas-induced climatic change has occurred and, if not, to estimate when in the future such
a climatic change will likely become detectable against the background of the "natural
variability."
This book contains 35 chapters divided into five parts: (1) Model Validation: How Good
are the Models in Simulating the Present and Past Climates?, (2) Climate Model Projec-
tions of Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Equilibrium Climatic Change: What Are the Expected
Climatic Changes?, (3) Observations of Climate Circa 1850 to the Present: Has the Cli-
mate Changed?, (4) Forcing Other Than by Greenhouse Gases: What Has Caused the
Variations in the Observed Climatic Record, and (5) Comparison of Model Simulations
and Observations: Has a Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climatic Change Been Detected? A
sixth part contains the reports of the three Working Groups on Observations, Model
Simulations, and Greenhouse Signal Detection.
Preface xi
Acknowledgements
I thank Ray Bradley, Henry Diaz and Tom Karl for their guidance and assistance as mem-
bers of the Workshop Organizing Committee. I particularly thank Ray Bradley for all his
efforts as Local Organizer to make the Workshop a success. I also thank Deborah Salkaus
of University Conference Services, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, for her help
with the arrangements for the Workshop. I thank Tim Barnett, Mike MacCracken and
Kevin Trenberth for their efforts as chairmen of the Working Groups whose reports appear
herein. I express my gratitude to Susan McKinney for her efforts in the preparation of
this book. The Workshop was sponsored by the Carbon Dioxide Research Program - At-
mospheric and Climate Research Division, Office of Health and Environmental Research
of the U.S. Department of Energy.
Michael E. Schlesinger
13 October 1990

1 4
52 53
1. Washington 9. Angell 17. Zebiak 25. Schonwiese 33. Crowley 41. Vinnikov 49. Gates
2. Ellsaesser 10. Mitchell 18. Wigley 26. Wood 34. Parker 42. Beran 50. Zwiers
3. Harvey 11. Bradley 19. McAvaney 27. Jones 35. Folland 43. Robock 51. Stenchikov
4. Kerr 12. Diaz 20. Stouffer 28. Meleshko 36. Hoffert 44. Cane 52. Barnett
5. Schlesinger 13. Katz 21. Jenkins 29. Meehl 37. Watts 45. Elliott 53. Jenne
6. MacCracken 14. Levitus 22. Grotch 30. Groisman 38. Etkins 46. Hecht 54. Cubasch
7. Karl 15. Ropelewski 23. Rind 31. Barry 39. Santer 47. Karoly 55. Oort
8. McFarland 16. Wang 24. Manabe 32. Trenberth 40. Riches 48. Hunt 56. Flannery
List of Participants
xv
Participants
ANGELL, J. K. CUBASCH, U.
NOAA Max-Planck Institut fur Météorologie
Gramax Building - Room 913 Bundesstrasse 55
8060 13th Street 2 Hamburg 13
Silver Springs, MD 20910 GERMANY
USA
DIAZ, H. F.
BARNETT, T. R NOAA/ERL
Climate Research Group, A-024 325 Broadway
Scripps Institution of Oceanography Boulder, CO 80303
University of California, San Diego USA
La Jolla, CA 92093
USA ELLIOTT, W. P.
NOAA ARL
BARRY, R. G. R/E/AR
World Data Center A - Glaciology 8060 13th St.
CIRES, Campus Box 449 Silver Spring, MD 20910
University of Colorado USA
Boulder, CO 80309
USA ELLSAESSER, H.
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
BERAN, M. L-262, P. O. Box 808
Institute of Hydrology Livermore, CA 94550
Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX 10 8BB USA
UNITED KINGDOM
ETKINS, R.
BRADLEY, R. S. NOAA/Naitonal Climate Program Office
Department of Geology and Geography Suite 518
University of Massachusetts 1825 Connecticut Ave. NW
Amherst, MA 01003 Washington, DC 20235
USA USA
CANE, M. A. FLANNERY, B. P.
Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory Exxon Research and Engineering Com-
Columbia University pany
Palisades, NY 10964 Clinton Township
USA Route 22 East
Annandale, NJ 08801
CROWLEY, T. J. USA
Applied Research Corporation
ARC Technologies
305 Arguello Dr.
College Station, TX 77840
USA
List of Participants
XVI
FOLLAND, C. K. HECHT, A.
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Environmental Protection Agency
Research Office of International Activities
U.K. Meteorological Office 401 Maine Avenue SW
London Road Washington, DC 2046
Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 2SZ USA
UNITED KINGDOM
HOFFERT, M. I.
GATES, W. L. New York University
Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Department of Applied Science
Intercomparison 26-36 Stuyvesant St.
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory New York, NY 10003
L-264, P.O. Box 808 USA
Livermore, CA 94550
USA HUNT, B. G.
Australian Numerical Meteorology Re-
GORNITZ, V. search Center
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center P. O. Box 5089 AA GPO
Institute for Space Studies Melbourne, 3001
2880 Broadway AUSTRALIA
New York, NY 10025
USA JENKINS, G.
Meteorological Office, Met. 020
GROISMAN, P. Ya. London Road
State Hydrological Institute Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 2SZ
23 Second Line UNITED KINGDOM
199053 Leningrad
USSR JENNE, R. L.
National Center for Atmospheric Research
GROTCH, S. L. P. O. Box 3000
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boulder, CO 80307
L-262, P. O. Box 808 USA
Livermore, CA 94550
USA JONES, P. D.
Climatic Research Unit
HANSEN, J. E. University of East Anglia
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Norwich NR4 7TJ
Institute for Space Studies UNITED KINGDOM
2880 Broadway
New York, NY 10025 KARL, T.
USA National Climatic Data Center
Climate Analysis Division
HARVEY, L. D. D. Federal Building
Department of Geography Asheville, NC 28801
University of Toronto USA
100 St. George St.
Toronto M5S 1A1 KAROLY, D. J.
CANADA Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Pro-
gram
Princeton University
P.O. Box 308
Princeton, NJ 08540
USA
List of Participants xvii
KATZ, R. MEEHL, G. A.
National Center for Atmospheric Research National Center for Atmospheric Research
P.O. Box 3000 P.O. Box 3000
Boulder, CO 80307 Boulder, CO 80307
USA USA
KERR, R. A. MELESHKO, V. P.
Science Magazine Main Geophysical Observatory
1333 H Street, NW Karbyshev St., 7
Washington, DC Leningrad 194018
USA USSR
LEV1TUS, S. MITCHELL, J. F. B.
NODC NOAA-NESDIS Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and
1825 Connecticut NW Research
Washington, DC 20235 U.K. Meteorological Office
USA London Road
Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 2SZ
LORENZ, Ε. N. UNITED KINGDOM
Department of Meteorology
MIT OORT, A.
Cambridge, MA 02139 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Labora-
USA tory/NOAA
Princeton University
MacCRACKEN, M. C. P. O. Box 308
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Princeton, NJ 08520
L-262 USA
P. O. Box 808
Livermore, CA 94550 PALTRIDGE, G. W.
USA C/IASOS University of Tasmania
GPO Box 252C
MANABE, S. Hobart, Tasmania
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Labora- AUSTRALIA 7001
tory/NOAA
Princeton University PARKER, D. E.
P.O. Box 308 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and
Princeton, NJ 08520 Research
USA U.K. Meteorological Office
London Road
McAVANEY, B. Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 2SZ
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre UNITED KINGDOM
GPO Box 1289K
Melbourne Vic. 3001 RICHES, M. R.
AUSTRALIA Department of Energy
Office of Energy
McFARLAND, N. Research ER-12
Canadian Climate Centre Washington, DC 20545
Atmospheric Environment Service USA
Department of the Environment
4905 Dufferin St.
Downsview, Ontario M3H 5T4
CANADA