Great Western Mainline Route Utilisation Strategy

256 Pages·2010·4.08 MB·English

by  Network Rail

Great Western
Route Utilisation Strategy
March 2010
2
Foreword
I am delighted to present the Great Western Development of this strategy has followed
Route Utilisation Strategy (RUS), which sets a now well-established process. Initially, an
out the strategic vision for the future of this analysis was carried out into the capacity and
vital part of the rail network. As well as the capability of the existing network and train
Great Western Main Line itself, the strategy services taking into account major changes
covers the network north to Ashchurch and planned over the next 10 years. Future
Bicester Town and south to Basingstoke, demand was then analysed with a number of
Salisbury and Dorchester. “Gaps” identified and options to resolve these
gaps appraised. Those which demonstrated
This August will see the 175th anniversary
the best value for money are included in
of the Great Western Railway. Today, that
the strategy.
railway carries tens of millions of passengers
a year through the Thames Valley, the West The dominant issue is the need to provide
Country and Wales. Working closely with our sufficient capacity on peak services,
train operating customers, Network Rail is specifically to and from London but also for
delivering an ever improving service for those Bristol and Exeter. In the short to medium term
passengers, and for freight users. the approach focuses on enabling longer trains
to serve these routes, particularly through the
More people are choosing to travel by train,
introduction of IEP, which will increase capacity
and high levels of growth are predicted
through new rolling stock and an enhanced
to continue, particularly around London
timetable, but also through train lengthening
Paddington and Bristol. Demand for freight
for local services. The strategy also identifies
is also expected to continue to grow, as it is
future opportunities presented by electrification
increasingly recognised as an economically
such as a further review of the local network
sensible and environmentally efficient form
in Bristol building on the analysis of a ‘Bristol
of transport.
Metro’ service.
This success brings challenges. Already
This RUS was initially published in
the improvement work has begun – fixing
consultation form in September 2009. Many
the bottleneck at Reading, redoubling the
issues were raised during that consultation
Cotswold line, increasing the linespeed on the
that have influenced several aspects of
Bristol to Birmingham corridor, preparing for
the strategy. Network Rail has led the
Crossrail, and through development work on
production of this RUS, however it has
the Intercity Express Programme (IEP) and
been developed with the full input of the rail
electrification of the Great Western Main Line.
industry including passenger and freight
This investment is a massive boost for operators, the Department for Transport,
passengers, businesses and communities Transport for London, Passenger Focus and
along the route. When complete, more trains London TravelWatch. I thank them all for
will run, with better performance and greater their contribution.
environmental efficiency.
Iain Coucher
Chief Executive

Executive summary
Introduction The scope area adjoins the routes of the South
Route Utilisation Strategies (RUSs) seek West Main Line; Wessex; South and Central
to establish the strategic direction of the Wales and Borders; Chilterns and the West
railway from a systematic analysis of future Midlands. The RUS area plays a crucial role
requirements of the network. They seek to in the core cross-country network, linking the
balance capacity, passenger and freight South Coast, Thames Valley, West Country,
demand, operational performance and cost South Wales and South Midlands with the
whilst addressing the requirements of funders Midlands, Greater Manchester, Yorkshire, the
and stakeholders. Network Rail is developing North East and Scotland.
a programme of RUSs, in conjunction with
Timeframe
rail industry partners and wider stakeholders,
The Great Western RUS primarily focuses
which when complete, will cover the entire rail
on the next 10 years to 2019 but has also
network in Great Britain. This programme of
considered the implications of growth in
RUSs includes a Network RUS which reviews
demand over the next 0 years in the context
national issues such as stations, depots, rolling
of the Government’s 2007 White Paper
stock and electrification as well as presenting
“Delivering a Sustainable Railway”.
scenarios and forecasts for long distance
The period from 1 April 2009 to 1 March
passenger and freight markets with the
201 is Network Rail’s current Control Period
established Freight RUS providing a strategy
 (CP). Any known commitments to 201
to meet anticipated freight demand to 201.
that have either formed the High Level Output
This Great Western RUS provides a further
Specification (HLOS) or have committed
step towards achieving national coverage and
funding through other funding streams have
has followed the now well-established process.
been included as part of the Great Western
Scope
RUS base. Such capacity schemes and
The Great Western RUS sets out the strategic
other enhancements are described further in
vision for a particular part of the rail network.
Chapter 4.
The scope of the RUS is extensive and
CP marks a start of a new era for rail in Britain
diverse; the focal element being the Great
as this is the first review since the passing
Western Main Line (GWML) which operates
of the Railways Act 2005, and introduces a
over 20 miles and creates main line links
new process whereby the Secretary of State
from London to the West of England and South
issues a High Level Output Specification and
Wales. Extending from this are radial routes to
a Statement of Funds Available which sets
Oxford, the Cotswolds, Birmingham, the South
the scene for the next five years. From this,
Coast and South West. Branch lines into the
Network Rail has embarked on a national
London suburbs, to the Devon and Cornish
programme of expenditure targeted at building
coast and dedicated freight only lines complete
a bigger and better railway through over 500
the mix of routes considered.
schemes and projects aimed at providing
extra capacity or capability for passengers
and freight customers – this is the biggest
expansion of Britain’s railways since the 180s.

Within the Great Western RUS scope area The identified gaps have been analysed
there are a significant number of major, to understand how best to address them,
high-profile, high-investment enhancement taking into account any schemes already
schemes planned or proposed during CP proposed. In the course of this work, options
which continue into the next control period have been developed on an iterative basis
(Control Period 5 (CP5)) from 201 to 2019. until feasible solutions have been identified
These major enhancement schemes include with acceptable operational performance
the electrification of the Great Western that meets whole-industry value-for-money
Main Line; the Intercity Express Programme criteria. In some cases there may be further
(IEP); European Rail Traffic Management work required to identify additional benefits
System (ERTMS); the Reading Station Area in order to demonstrate a sufficiently strong
Redevelopment and Crossrail. Although economic return.
predominantly within the Thames Valley
The Great Western RUS has been developed
area, these schemes will resolve a number of
as a result of considerable analysis and close
current and future issues across the whole of
collaboration between Network Rail, the
the RUS area. The implementation of these
Department for Transport, the passenger and
interventions will significantly change the
freight operators, Transport for London, the
capacity and capability of the network.
Office of Rail Regulation, Welsh Assembly
Through the inclusion of these improvements Government, Passenger Focus and London
in the base, the RUS has been able to identify TravelWatch.
further prospective “Gaps”. The focus of
options to address these gaps being to input
recommendations for the longer-term strategy
to inform the Department for Transport’s (DfT)
next HLOS for CP5.
Process
The starting point for the Great Western RUS
has been to analyse the current base position
of the network, combined with any committed
schemes and known interventions. Demand
analysis has been undertaken to ascertain
the expected level of growth over the next
10 years taking into account the anticipated
drivers of change. The combined analysis
identifies where supply and demand is
mismatched now, and where it is expected to
be mismatched in the future.
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Gaps performance pinch-points and local and
The key themes that have emerged from regional connectivity. The following table
the analysis of the current railway and what presents the gaps identified and taken
is required of it in the future is capacity forward for further analysis under the Great
(at stations, on trains and of the network), Western RUS process.
1. Paddington peak capacity
2. I nner suburban service pattern
3. Paddington to Reading all day capacity
4. Paddington to Reading performance
5. Slough to Windsor all day capacity
6. Freight capacity and capability: in and around London and north-south
7. Reading peak capacity
8. Didcot to Wolvercot Jn performance
9. West Midlands to South Coast connectivity and all day capacity
10. Swindon to Gloucester performance
11. South Wales to South Coast all day capacity
12. West Midlands to South West connectivity and all day capacity
13. Bristol peak capacity
14. Bristol performance
15. Westbury area performance
16. Exeter and Plymouth area service pattern
17. Interurban journey times
18. Early morning arrivals at key regional centres
19. Station crowding
20. Seasonal fluctuations
21. Impact of Heathrow Airport expansion and western access
A number of strategic gaps were also identified the Strategic Freight Network (SFN) and the
which relate to the overall rail network. These Network RUS, and as such are not intended to
include the Intercity Express Programme, be duplicated by this RUS. However, elements
freight train length and network capability, of these gaps have been included, where
depot capacity and the Seven Day Railway necessary, within the appropriate gaps and
initiative (to improve network availability). options analysis of the Great Western RUS.
These strategic issues are being managed Further details on each of the generic gaps are
through other industry processes, such as provided in Chapter 4 and Chapter 6.

In developing the RUS, there were a number London Paddington and Reading. A scenario
of uncertainties. This is especially apparent matrix was developed to manage the known
with regards to the proposed timetables for proposals for IEP, electrification and Crossrail
IEP and Crossrail services. Draft service pre- and post-implementation.
specifications have been used as a basis for
Capacity analysis to 2019 showed sufficient
the RUS analysis; however these continue to
supply to cater for forecast growth on the
be developed and are yet to be finalised and
current Long Distance High Speed (LDHS)
confirmed. As such, the additional quantum of
services with IEP (either diesel or electric)
services expected from these interventions and
on the LDHS services and outer suburban
their proposed calling patterns has not been
services after the implementation of Crossrail.
explicitly modelled. Further timetable work is
The provision of freight paths in the latest
scheduled to combine and commit the service
Crossrail timetable proves sufficient to
specifications, along with the predicted freight
accommodate predicted freight growth as per
growth and pathing requirements, to ensure
the SFN forecasts to at least 200.
compatibility and accommodation on the
network, and as a result, further infrastructure The RUS describes the demand forecasting
enhancements may be necessary. and operational modelling work completed
under the scenario matrix and references
The GWML is currently the second busiest
the ongoing work taking place to deliver
freight corridor into London. This is expected
electrification, IEP and Crossrail. Chapters 4
to increase substantially with the levels of
and 9 provide greater detail on these schemes
predicted growth, particularly for aggregates
with regards to scope and the effect their
traffic, required for the construction of the
implementation will have on the RUS area.
Olympic infrastructure and Crossrail. Analysis
has included the current forecasts for freight The commitment to the electrification of
growth from the Freight RUS and the SFN the GWML provides the opportunity for
for various route sections within the RUS the extension of Crossrail services west of
area to ensure sufficient network capacity Maidenhead which could bring significant
and capability to accommodate growth in benefits, by giving the wider Thames Valley
passenger and freight markets. The forecasts direct rail access to central London and
for freight growth up to 2019 are still subject the City, while also creating extra capacity
to agreement and as such, the RUS has at London Paddington for longer distance
continued to use the latest estimates as services. The scheme sponsors, DfT and
assumptions for growth up to 2019. However, Transport for London, are reviewing this option.
during the consultation period of the RUS, the
Electrification will also enable the current
forecasts for growth up to 200 have been
Thames Valley suburban services into London
confirmed and these have been applied in the
Paddington to be operated by electric trains
RUS analysis.
instead of the existing diesel trains.
The gaps and options identified and
It is currently proposed that a number of the
appraised as part of the Great Western
existing Thameslink four-car electric trains will
RUS are summarised below with a more
be transferred onto the GWML, replacing the
detailed account, along with a description
current two and three-car diesel trains, when
and quantification of the gaps and option
the new Thameslink fleet is introduced. These
evaluation, provided in Chapter 6. vehicles could then operate on the suburban
Gaps 1 to  together with Gap 21 and part services between Oxford, Reading and London
of Gap , freight capacity and capability in Paddington by the end of 201. This proposal
the London area, were combined to form is subject to agreement and further review in
one option reviewing the corridor between CP5 in line with the latest rolling stock plan.
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All day capacity between Slough and Windsor many of the timetable issues could be resolved
and Eton Central station was assessed in through a recast of the Brighton Main Line and
line with the December 2008 timetable which Redhill corridors.
increased passenger services on the branch
Further analysis was undertaken by the Great
from two trains per hour to three trains per
Western RUS on the North Downs route
hour Monday to Friday. This proved sufficient
to review on-train crowding, specifically to
supply to cater for current and predicted
address perceived crowding at Guildford.
demand to 2019. First Great Western (FGW)
The analysis confirms the recommendation
revised the operation on Saturdays during the
to lengthen four peak services (two in each
summer months in 2009 to increase capacity
direction) by two-cars to address these
to a three-car train to assist with on-train
overcrowding issues. This enhancement
crowding. FGW has been unable to develop
includes the HLOS proposal to lengthen all
a positive business case for increasing the
the Reading to Gatwick Airport services to
service provision on a Saturday to three
three cars (as this forms part of the RUS
trains per hour; they will therefore continue to
base as a committed scheme). However, all
review the provision of three cars on weekend
proposals to lengthen services are subject to
services as necessary, although this is
rolling stock being available. The delivery plan
dependent on rolling stock availability during
for the extra vehicles is still to be determined
the summer months.
with an announcement expected in 2010. The
Capacity analysis on all services into and out RUS has therefore continued with the initial
of Reading during the peak periods identified assumptions made under the HLOS proposals
that on-train crowding would exist by 2019 on as the latest information available and
the Reading to Gatwick Airport corridor. This continued to use these assumptions as part of
supports, and is consistent with, the analysis the RUS base.
undertaken as part of the Sussex RUS which
Five infrastructure enhancements were
reviewed the service from Gatwick Airport
proposed to address capacity and
to Redhill. During the consultation period of
performance issues between Didcot and
the Sussex RUS further analysis has been
Wolvercot Jn specifically at Didcot East Jn,
undertaken to review the extension of services
Didcot North Jn and Oxford. A capacity study
from Redhill to Gatwick Airport. There is a
assessed the predicted growth in passenger
requirement of the Greater Western Franchise
and freight services, using the draft IEP
to provide two trains per hour on a standard
service specification and forecasts of freight
pattern between Reading and Gatwick Airport
growth from the SFN, and the impact this
and the potential remodelling at Redhill in CP5
would have on the current infrastructure. From
would facilitate this, enabling through services
this, the Draft for Consultation recommended
to operate to Gatwick Airport on a more
further evaluation of the options for enhancing
ordered pattern of service. A positive business
Didcot North Jn to provide the additional
case to extend these services would improve
capacity necessary to accommodate
the service frequency on the route between
such growth. This work identified that the
Reading and Gatwick Airport. However, at
infrastructure would only be required should
present, no case can be found to extend the
the current level of passenger services be
remaining 1 North Downs services which
increased with the introduction of an enhanced
terminate at Redhill through to Gatwick Airport.
IEP timetable. The current infrastructure
The Sussex RUS does, however, recommend
is sufficient to accommodate current and
that the second hourly service to Gatwick
predicted freight growth subject to the existing
Airport from the North Downs line should be
level of passenger services remaining
included as an option in the post Thameslink
constant. Should the level of passenger
timetabling work on the Redhill corridor as
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services increase, then a dynamic loop would of the passenger service on a two-hourly
be required to enable freight to continue to basis would not compromise predicted future
access Appleford sidings. The infrastructure is freight growth to 200 and that all services
therefore dependant on the number of services could be accommodated on the existing
proposed in the IEP service specification. infrastructure. The RUS therefore recommends
Further enhancement to Oxford station and this option subject to performance modelling
the areas into and out of the station area are of the proposed service extensions in the
also recommended as part of the Oxford Area Basingstoke station area.
Redevelopment scheme.
Alternative routeings for the existing Newcastle
On-train crowding was identified as a gap from to Reading service have also been reviewed by
the North to the South Coast and to the South the Great Western RUS to address connectivity
West on the interurban corridors between gaps between Coventry and the East Midlands
Manchester and Bournemouth; Newcastle and West Yorkshire. The RUS reviewed
and Reading; Edinburgh and Plymouth; and the expected level of demand that could be
Manchester and Bristol Temple Meads. Load generated should these services be routed
factor analysis of the current situation, using via Coventry and/or Leeds instead of via the
the latest passenger counts from May 2009, current routeing of Solihull and Doncaster. This
and that predicted to rise in 2019 with forecast follows on from the initial work on rerouteing
growth has enabled a business case to be the service via Leeds which was undertaken by
developed for additional vehicles. Various the Yorkshire and Humber RUS. By routeing
scenarios were modelled due to the train the service via Coventry and or/Leeds, demand
diagramming requirements currently being analysis shows increased train loadings
used and with the assumption that these can be particularly at Coventry and Birmingham New
further optimised in the future, the RUS identifies Street, however, the existing train formations
that between 8 and 19 additional vehicles in on the Newcastle to Reading corridor are
traffic can be supported. The final number of sufficient to accommodate this demand with no
vehicles required will be dependant on the ability additional vehicles required. The West Midlands
to optimise future train diagrams. and Chiltern RUS will develop this analysis
further by undertaking a detailed timetable
To improve connectivity, and assist with
study for these routeings to assess track and
capacity issues to the South Coast, the RUS
timetable capacity. The full results, including the
reviewed the option of extending the current
economic appraisal, will therefore be presented
Newcastle to Reading service to Southampton
in the West Midlands and Chiltern RUS.
and/or Bournemouth. A high level economic
appraisal proved that extending to To improve capacity and performance on
Southampton provided sufficient value for the Swindon to Gloucester route, the RUS
money for further consideration. Timetable supports the development of the Swindon to
analysis was undertaken on an hourly Kemble redoubling scheme with the inclusion
extension and a two-hourly option. The hourly of the incremental enhancement of additional
option was discounted due to the significant signals between Kemble and Standish
amount of infrastructure that would be Jn to improve capacity for normal service
required. The two-hourly option, providing an provision, as well as for diversionary working
additional six trains per day in each direction, as recognised under the Seven Day Railway
between Reading and Southampton proved initiative. The combined scheme is still subject
feasible on the current infrastructure and to full funding for its implementation.
was assessed against the proposed freight
Capacity analysis with predicted growth to
growth as per the SFN forecasts to 2019 and
2019 for the services between South Wales
200. The analysis proved that the extension
and the South Coast (specifically the Cardiff to
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Portsmouth and Bristol to Weymouth services) accommodate these services, longer turnaround
identified on-train crowding issues for which times are experienced at Bristol Temple Meads
the RUS recommends the lengthening of five which are resource-costly. Economic appraisal
peak services (by either one or two vehicles) results show that there is an insufficient Benefit
on the Cardiff to Portsmouth route and two Cost Ratio (BCR) to be able to recommend the
peak services (by one vehicle) on the Bristol enhanced service frequency between Bristol
to Weymouth route. This enhancement is over Temple Meads and Severn Beach. However,
and above the HLOS proposal for 12 additional to further improve the business case, and to
vehicles to lengthen services in the West of maximise the use of rolling stock and staff
England. In addition, a review of the service resources, the option of extending the service
proposition on the Cardiff to Portsmouth route to Bath Spa was reviewed. This utilises the long
results in the recommendation of one morning turnaround times at Bristol Temple Meads and
and one evening peak service becoming a enables a cross-Bristol service to operate with no
faster service through the removal of a number further rolling stock or resource costs. The option
of intermediate station calls between Westbury would provide an additional hourly service from
and Bristol Temple Meads. A separate Avonmouth to Bath Spa, calling all stations. This
stopping service would be introduced between option achieves a BCR of 1.8 which is above the
Westbury and Bristol to cater for passengers at recommendation threshold. There are therefore
these stations. This option provides additional three alternative options available for services
capacity as well as a significant improvement from Bath Spa to Bristol Temple Meads with
to journey time. possible through service opportunities:
To address current and predicted capacity Bristol Temple Meads to Bath Spa
issues to 2019 at Bristol Temple Meads the
Clifton Down to Bath Spa
RUS recommends an additional nine vehicles
in traffic to lengthen 11 morning and evening Avonmouth to Bath Spa
peak hour trains. An enhanced cross-Bristol
The RUS recommends the Bristol Temple
service will also be recommended in the
Meads to Bath Spa shuttle but notes the
RUS as a longer-term option to provide an
marginal case for the alternative options of
additional hourly Bristol Temple Meads to
extending the service to Avonmouth or Clifton
Yate service (subject to third party funding)
Down and it is therefore recommended that
through the extension of the existing Weston-
these options are considered in the future
super-Mare to Bristol Parkway service; and an
as part of timetable reviews associated with
additional hourly Bath Spa to Bristol Temple
electrification and IEP. It is appreciated that
Meads shuttle (calling all stations) subject
there are concerns over the potential negative
to performance validation with possible
impact on operational performance with regard
extensions to Clifton Down.
to services turning around at Bath Spa and
Following consultation responses, two further this option is therefore subject to performance
options have been assessed for enhanced modelling and should be reviewed in line with
Bristol services. The first reviewed an increased opportunities available from the electrification
frequency on the Severn Beach branch with of the Great Western Main Line. The Bath Spa
a half hourly clock face service from Bristol capacity upgrade which is currently progressing
Temple Meads to Avonmouth and incremental to GRIP1 stage  (Single Option Development)
to this, an hourly service to Severn Beach. will increase capacity in the station by reducing
Operationally, it has been proven that these platform reoccupation times and reducing
enhanced services can be accommodated on signalling headways. This will therefore assist
the existing infrastructure. However, in order to in improving performance.
1 GRIP being Network Rail’s “Guide to Railway Investment Projects” and the process by which investment schemes are managed
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