Great Powers and Geopolitics: International Affairs in a Rebalancing World PDF
Preview Great Powers and Geopolitics: International Affairs in a Rebalancing World
Global Power Shift Aharon Klieman Editor Great Powers and Geopolitics International Aff airs in a Rebalancing World Global Power Shift Comparative Analysis and Perspectives SeriesEditor: XuewuGu CenterforGlobalStudies,UniversityofBonn,Germany ManagingEditor: EnricoFels CenterforGlobalStudies,UniversityofBonn,Germany InternationalAdvisoryBoard: LuisFernandes,PontificiaUniversidadeCatolicadoRiodeJaneiro,Brazil G.JohnIkenberry,PrincetonUniversity,USA CanrongJin,RenminUniversityofBeijing,China SrikanthKondapalli,JawaharlalNehruUniversity,India DingliShen,FudanUniversity,China KazuhikoTogo,KyotoSanyoUniversity,Japan RobertoZoboli,CatholicUniversityofMilan,Italy Ample empirical evidence points to recent power shifts in multiple areas of internationalrelationstakingplacebetweenindustrializedcountriesandemerging powers,andbetweenstatesandnon-stateactors.Yetthereisadearthoftheoretical interpretation and synthesis of these findings, and a growing need for coherent approachestounderstandandmeasurethetransformation. Thisedited seriesaims to bring together scholars from all major world regions as well as different disciplines in order to discuss and possibly blend their different approaches and providenewframeworksfortheunderstandingofglobalaffairsandthegovernance ofglobalpowershifts. More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/10201 Aharon Klieman Editor Great Powers and Geopolitics International Affairs in a Rebalancing World Editor AharonKlieman Tel-AvivUniversity,DepartmentofPoliticalScience Ramat-Aviv Israel ISSN2198-7343 ISSN2198-7351 (electronic) GlobalPowerShift ISBN978-3-319-16288-1 ISBN978-3-319-16289-8 (eBook) DOI10.1007/978-3-319-16289-8 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2015937358 SpringerChamHeidelbergNewYorkDordrechtLondon ©SpringerInternationalPublishingSwitzerland2015 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpartof the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilarmethodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexempt fromtherelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. Thepublisher,theauthorsandtheeditorsaresafetoassumethattheadviceandinformationinthis book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained hereinorforanyerrorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade. Printedonacid-freepaper Springer International Publishing AG Switzerland is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com) Preface The malcontents of this world—the militants, the jihadists, the marginalized, and the anti-status quo revisionists—are once again on the march. From the Crimea across the Middle East’s Arab heartland, and from Libya to Nigeria and Somalia through the interior and Horn of Africa all the way eastward to the South China Seas, global power is shifting in ways that are at once dramatic and disquieting, madethemoresoforhavingbeenlargelyunanticipated. Thrust back on the defensive is an entire post-Cold War international order, including the very foundational principles upon which it rests. Only yesterday, in enteringthisseconddecadeofthetwenty-firstcentury,twoalternativefuturesvied for acceptance. The first predicted a “Great Convergence” of mankind, generated by unprecedented economic and technological globalization, whereas the second foresaw an emerging “G-Zero” leaderless yet admirably egalitarian planet Earth madepossiblebytheincrementalandessentiallynonviolentreshufflingofgeopolitical power,prestige,andinfluence. Politicalrealitiesnowsuggestanaltogetherdifferentparadigm.Afundamental reordering,tobesure,butmorerevolutionarythanevolutionary;moresavagethan civil;andspearheadednotsomuchbytheacknowledgedgreatpowersasbyleaders ofdefiantweakerstates,pivotalregionalcountries,andaggressivenon-stateactors; and, most disconcerting, by fanatical religious movements unbound by any acceptedinternationalrules,Westernnorms,legalstandards,orsocialconventions. Howfarandhowfasthaveweretreatedfromthoseearlierconfidentreassurances ofa“democraticpeace”,orofa“longpeace”undertheaegisofabenevolent“Pax Americana.”WhenacivilianMalaysianairlinercanbeshotdownwithimpunity,and when peacekeepers functioning in southern Syria under a United Nations flag and mandate are fired upon and detained by al-Qaida affiliates, the evidence is all too patently and painfully clear that international society is under siege. Just as the international system itself and its stability and credibility are sorely tested should Russia’screepingarmedinvasionoftheUkraineproceedunchecked. Unless these destabilizing assaults on the global order are promptly and effec- tivelyrepulsed,then“Cry‘Havoc!’,andletslipthedogsofwar.”Hence,eveninthe v vi Preface midstofrapidlyunfoldingeventsworldwide,studentsofinternationalaffairsmust acceptthetwofoldimperativeofgrapplingwiththemoreseriousandmostimme- diate threats, while recommending serviceable tools of the statesman’s trade for guaranteeingifnottheidealofaKantianperpetualpeacethenatleastatolerable, functioningworldorder. Responding to the challenge, the scholars and specialists contributing to this collectionoftimelyessaysaddresshead-onthecurrenttransformationalmomentin world history and politics. In doing so, they tackle their respective assignments guidedbythefollowingquestions: • What constitute today the real sinews of national power? And what is the best mix of hard, soft, and smart power needed to cope with current as well as unanticipatedfuturechallenges? • Who are the resurgent and rising great powers? The prospective leading state andnon-stateactors? • Even in the throes of its own multiple crises at home, does the United States continuetobeindispensableoverseas?Canitbecountedupontoleadfromthe front? • Areweabletoidentifybothmechanismsandcoalitionsforconstructinganew, more stable equilibrium, preferably short of all-out war? An equilibrium accu- ratelyreflectingtherealdistributionofpowerandinfluenceworldwide,byfirst recognizing and then accommodating the ascendancy of pivotal leaders and countriesineachoftheirrespectiveregionalsubsystems. Usingthenotionofadynamic,ongoingbalancingofpowerprocessasaunifying theme, these essays serve to highlight those regional rivals and rivalries most criticalforinternationalstability. Surveying the scene in mid-summer 2014, one astute observer was led to conclude, “It is all gray and it is all grim.1” All gray, yes! All grim, definitely not! Great Powers and Geopolitics represents a serious attempt at providing a durable compass—the concept and the process of rebalancing power—for weathering the current storm and in offering authoritative guidance through the perplexitiesofaworldinflux. Throughtheirindividualcasestudiesandcollectiveeffort,theeditorandauthors hope to satisfy the increasingly urgent need for understanding shared by policymakersandacademicsalike.Aswellasbystudentsandcitizensaroundthe globe who share with us both a fascination with foreign affairs and a deepening concernatthestateoftheworld. Ramat-Aviv,Israel AharonKlieman 1LeonWieseltier,“Obamawaswrong:Theeraofhumanitarianinterventionisnotover,”New republic,27August2014. Acknowledgments The origins of this book trace back to a 3-day academic workshop convened in JerusaleminNovember2013,whichbroughttogether17scholarsfrom9countries representingarangeofcultures,disciplines,andperspectives.Althoughneitherthe organizers nor the participants could possibly have anticipated whatcourse world politics were about to take—where better than Jerusalem for cautioning against practicingthepropheticprofession?—thesingleconsiderationbringingustogether surelyhadtohavebeenasharedsensethat,quotingBobDylan,“thetimestheyare a-changin’.” AlreadyayearearliertheConferenceAnnouncementandInitialCallforPapers invitedwould-beparticipantstoconsiderastheirworkingpremisethatinternational affairs were poised on the threshold of a new era––a new era marked by a major realignment in the hierarchy and distribution of both political power and global influence. Nor were indicators lacking of deep systemic change about to take place well before Malaysian Airlines flight MH17, before the Crimean and Ukrainian crises, before the Gaza Strip, and before the meteoric rise of the ad-Dawla Islamiyya (IslamicState)movementinadisorderlyandpossiblydisintegratingMiddleEast. Eventhen,oursensorswere picking upstrongsignalsofaworld-wearyandwary America, increasingly exasperated by unappreciative friends and undisciplined foes, while from the other direction former supporting actors waited impatiently inthewingsforanopportunitytogaincenterstage. Both the preliminary Jerusalem Workshop and now this book represent an attempt at getting in front of events. Not in the sense of predicting their exact course but, rather, in framing on a larger canvas the dynamics of how and why power is in fact shifting on a global scale, as well as who are the prime movers behindthisrealignment. Publication of these selected Workshop papers—revised and updated for this volume—offers a perfect opportunity to express thanks to the several individuals and agencies without whose encouragement and material assistance this project couldnotandwouldnothaveprogressedfromstarttofinish.Firstandforemost,the vii viii Acknowledgments International Political Science Association (IPSA), for sponsoring the Jerusalem Workshop and for enabling several young scholars to participate through IPSA travel grants. One of the privileges in chairing IPSA’s Research Committee on GeopoliticsistheopportunitytoconcerteffortswithclosecolleaguesSharylCross in the United States, Igor Okunev in Russia, Ziv Rubinovitz in Israel, and Pere VilanovainSpain. That the Workshop sessions proved singularly successful—in the sense of serious questioning and earnest debate that led to a unique intellectual bonding— owes in no small measure to the spectacular setting offered on The Hebrew University’s Mount Scopus campus overlooking the Old City and Holy Basin, whose ancient ruins and sacred sites bear strong witness to the ebb and flow of history, to the wages of religious zealotry, and to the rise and fall of great and would-begreatpowers. Equallyconducive were the physical facilities provided by the management of TheBeitMaiersdorfcomplexwhereourguestsweregraciouslyandamplyhosted byTheLeonardDavisInstituteforInternationalRelations.Aspecialdebtofthanks is expressed, therefore, to Professor Piki Ish-Shalom, head of the Institute, for endorsing the Workshop idea and for his personal participation in one panel and to Chanoch Wolpe for converting that idea into a memorable reality by micro- managingthethree-dayeventwithaplombandgoodhumor. As Great Powers and Geopolitics enters into print, making it accessible to a wideraudience,sincerethanksarereadilyoffered,lastbutcertainlynotleast,tothe team of professionals at Springer, headed by Barbara Fess and Johannes Glaeser, andtoEnricoFels,whoservedintheindispensableroleof“honestbroker.” Contents Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 AharonKlieman PushingBack:TheBalanceandBalancingofPower. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 AharonKlieman TheRiseoftheOthers:CantheU.S.StayonTop?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 ZivRubinovitz Interdependence,BalancingandConflictinRussian–Turkish Relations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 TolgaDemiryol CongruousorConflicting?GreatPowerConfigurationsinthe Balkans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 MarinkoBobic´ CompetingHegemons:EUandRussianPowerProjectionintheSouth Caucasus. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 ScottNicholasRomaniuk RussianPerspectivesonUS–ChinaRelationsandthe Twenty-First-CenturyGlobalSystem. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 IgorZevelev IsRussiaaGreatPowerinAsia?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161 StephenBlank EurasianGreatPowerTriangle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 ArtyomLukin PullingTheirPunches:BRICForeignPoliciesintheMiddleEast. . . . . 207 GuyBurton ix
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