Springer Theses Recognizing Outstanding Ph.D. Research Rutger van Haasteren Gravitational Wave Detection and Data Analysis for Pulsar Timing Arrays Springer Theses Recognizing Outstanding Ph.D. Research For furthervolumes: http://www.springer.com/series/8790 Aims and Scope The series ‘‘Springer Theses’’ brings together a selection of the very best Ph.D. theses from around the world and across the physical sciences. Nominated and endorsed by two recognized specialists, each published volume has been selected for its scientific excellence and the high impact of its contents for the pertinent fieldofresearch.Forgreateraccessibilitytonon-specialists,thepublishedversions includeanextendedintroduction,aswellasaforewordbythestudent’ssupervisor explaining the special relevance of the work for the field. 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Rutger van Haasteren Gravitational Wave Detection and Data Analysis for Pulsar Timing Arrays Doctoral Thesis accepted by the University of Leiden, The Netherlands 123 Author Supervisor Dr. Rutgervan Haasteren Yuri Levin Max PlanckInstituteforGravitational School ofPhysics Physics(Albert EinsteinInstitute) Monash Center forAstrophysics Hannover Clayton Germany Australia ISSN 2190-5053 ISSN 2190-5061 (electronic) ISBN 978-3-642-39598-7 ISBN 978-3-642-39599-4 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-39599-4 SpringerHeidelbergNewYorkDordrechtLondon LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2013944542 (cid:2)Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg2014 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpartof the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation,broadcasting,reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherphysicalway,andtransmissionor informationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. 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While the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication,neithertheauthorsnortheeditorsnorthepublishercanacceptanylegalresponsibilityfor anyerrorsoromissionsthatmaybemade.Thepublishermakesnowarranty,expressorimplied,with respecttothematerialcontainedherein. Printedonacid-freepaper SpringerispartofSpringerScience+BusinessMedia(www.springer.com) Supervisor’s Foreword Pulsars are among the most extraordinary objects in the universe. They are pro- ducedinextremelyluminoussupernovaevents,duringwhichthecoreofamassive starcollapsesintoaneutronstaraboutthesizeofamajorcityandmoredensethan anatomicnucleus.Pulsarsareasub-classofneutronstarsthataredistinguishedby bright,stronglycollimated,andcoherentradioemission.Asthepulsarspinsonits axis, the lighthouse-like radio beams swing across the Galaxy to be observed at Earth as a series of periodic pulses. Some pulsars possess phenomenal rotational stability,whichisnotfarbelowthatofthebestatomicclocksonEarth.Thismakes them unique instruments for experimental exploration of gravity. Relativistic gravitationaleffectssuchasorbitalprecession,Shapirodelay,geodeticprecession, and shrinking of the pulsar orbit due to the emission of gravitational waves have beenmeasuredwithexquisiteprecisioninsystemswhereapulsarisamemberofa tight binary, and have been found to be in excellent agreement with general relativity. The major current quest is to use pulsars for direct detection of long-period (monthstoyears)gravitationalwaves,thatareexpectedtobeproducedbybinaries of supermassive black holes at the centers of distant galaxies, as well as (more speculatively)byoscillatingcosmicstringloops.Inordertoachievethis,scientists carryoutlong-termtimingcampaignsofsets(alsoknownasarrays)ofparticularly stablyrotatingmillisecondpulsars.Thedeviationsfromregularpulsearrivaltimes (the so-called timing residuals) contain information about the dynamical space- timedistortionsofthegalaxy;thegravitationalwavesleaveacorrelatedimprintin the timing residuals that is different from all other known sources of timing irregularities. Three major collaborations (the Pulsar Timing Arrays, or PTAs) of radio astronomers and gravitational-wave theorists have formed around the world during the last decade. The Australian-based Parkes PTA uses the data from the Parkestelescope;theNorthAmericanNANOgravcollaborationutilizestheGreen Bank Telescope and Arecibo, while the European PTA is fundamentally a multi- telescope project that uses radio dishes at Nancay in France, Jodrell Bank in the United Kingdom, Effelsberg in Germany, Westerbork in The Netherlands, and Sardinia in Italy. The super-array, called the International PTA, has also been formed and will utilize the timing residuals obtained by all of the PTAs to carry out a joint search for gravitational waves. v vi Supervisor’sForeword The thesis presented in this book deals with how one takes thousands of seemingly random timing residuals that are measured by pulsar observers, and extracts information about the presence and character of the gravitational waves with months-to-years periods that are washing over our galaxy. During his Ph.D. work at Leiden Observatory, Rutger van Haasteren developed from scratch a sophisticatedmathematicalalgorithmthatdealswiththisissue,andthatiscurrently in active use within the PTA community (van Haasteren et al. 2009, Chapter 2). Moving beyond purely theoretical work, van Haasteren studied the observational procedure in depth (which he learned partly during his first 2-month stay in Aus- tralia), and, together with Gemma Jansen (then a postdoctoral fellow at Jodrell Bank), led the joint effort offive teams of pulsar observers on the European con- tinent,tocombinetheirEuropanPulsarTimingArray(EPTA)datasetsinorderto searchforgravitationalwaves.Thisstudyhasplacedthemoststringentpublished limittodate(March2013)ontheintensityofgravitationalwavesthatareproduced bypairsofsupermassiveblackholesdancingaroundeachotherindistantgalaxies, as well as those that may be produced by vibrating cosmic strings. The signature EPTApaper(vanHaasterenetal.2011,Chapter3)developstheprocedureofhow totreatthedatacombinedfrommultipleradiotelescopes,thatwilllikelyserveasa templatefortheupcomingIPTAgravitationalwavesearches.Thealgorithmofvan Haasterenetal.(2009)hasnowbeenimplementedandfurtherdevelopedbyseveral groups around the world: Vallisneri and colleagues at JPL, Cornish at Montana StateUniversity,Lentati,Taylor,Gair,andothersatCambridgeUniversity,andvan Haasteren himself. Some elements of the algorithm (in particular its emphasis on the time domain rather than the frequency-domain formalism) have been adopted for the recentNANOGrav study by Demorest et al. (2012). Apart from the gravitational-wave search, van Haasteren carried out two the- oretical projects during his Ph.D.. In the first one, he showed that PTAs are sensitivetotheChristodouloumemoryburstsfrommergersofsupermassiveblack holes,andestimatedtheeventratethatwillbeseenbytheongoingandfuturePTA experiments(van Haasterenand Levin 2010, Chapter 4;similar calculations were independently and simultaneously carried out by two other groups). A significant part of this chapter (Sect. 3) is devoted to the methodological question that goes beyond a particular gravitational-wave source that was considered, of how to incorporate the timing-model fitting into the search for gravitational waves pro- ducedbyasinglesource.Inthesecondtheoreticalproject,vanHaastereninvented a new computational procedure for evaluating the Bayesian evidence using Mar- kov Chains (van Haasteren, Chapter 5). For the work described in this book, Rutger van Haasteren has been awarded with the Gravitational Waves International Committee (GWIC) thesis prize for 2011,thatisgivenannuallytothebestthesisongravitationalwavescienceamong those defended during that year world-wide. van Haasterens award was the first GWIC thesis prize given for the work on Pulsar Timing Arrays. Clayton, Australia, March 17 2013 Yuri Levin Acknowledgments Beforedivinginthetechnicaldetailsofmyresearch, Iwouldliketofillthispage with some words of gratitude toward people who have not directly contributed to theresearchinthisthesis,butwhostillhavehadapositiveeffectontheresearchin this thesis. One of the most important lessons I have learned during my Ph.D. research is that I do not want to be a successful scientist if I cannot have a successful and happy life next to it. As with everything in life, it is about the balance. The balance between passionate research and a healthysocial life in this case. For this lesson I have to thank everyone in my social circle. Additionally, a rich social life does not just provide distractions, but also inspiration and good ideas. TheSterrewacht,whereIhavespentabigportionofmydailylifeforyears,is home to numerous colleagues that have helped me in one way or the other to produce the work you are now reading. All of you, thank you very much for allowingmetoenjoymyselfthere!Thereare,however,afewpeoplethatIwould like to mention by name. First my office mate Chael. Thanks for putting up with meforyears,andforbeingthefirstinlinetotalkscienceto.Maarten,Ihopeyou have come to appreciate me and my great sense of humor just as much as I have cometolikeourdailylunchbreaks.Ann-Marie,thankyouformakingMelbourne as awesome as it was. We’ll keep that up. Ialsowanttothankmy‘‘cordialgenoten’’forthewonderfultimeIhavealways had with them. Some of these guys I want to name specifically. Boot,you were a wonderful flatmate, and I will always think of our time at the Wagenstraat with fond memories. P, the number of years of my life that I have wasted hanging out with you I have been able to reclaim quadratically in good times. What would I havedonewithoutyou?Ralph,squashwasalwaysahighlightintheweek,andthe conversations were always high quality. And of course I should also mention the good times in or outside of the pub with the standard crew members Gijs, Vuijk, IJs, and Jap. AtMonash,thewholegangImetthere,youallmadeitaverypleasantplaceto work.AndthanksforintroducingmetoalltheotherthingsthatmakeMelbournea nice place to live. Amanda, thank you for your hospitality and the good times. Remko, naturally I cannot forget you here. I will soon drop by for an old fashionedevening.Caroline,eventhoughithasonlybeenoneyear,thankyoufor your love and support. Lucy, thanks for the wonderful conversations and the vii viii Acknowledgments inspiration. Sonja, my dear sister, although you were far away, I have always enjoyed our skype sessions. And finally, mom and dad: words can never describe what you have done for me. I love you. All of you. March 1 2011 Rutger van Haasteren References vanHaasterenR.,LevinY.,McDonaldP.,LuT.,2009,MNRAS,395,1005 vanHaasterenR.,LevinY.,JanssenG.H.,LazaridisK.,KramerM.,StappersB.W.,DesvignesG., PurverM.B.,etal.,2011,MNRAS,414,3117 vanHaasterenR.,LevinY.,2010,MNRAS,401,2372 Contents 1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.1 General Relativity and GR Tests. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1.1.1 Black Holes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1.1.2 Black Hole Binaries: Sources for GW Emission. . . . . . . 5 1.2 Pulsars and Pulsar Timing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 1.2.1 Pulsar Timing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 1.2.2 GR Tests with Pulsar Timing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1.3 Current GW Experiments, and PTAs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 1.3.1 GW Detectors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 1.3.2 Pulsar Timing Arrays . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 1.4 Bayesian PTA Data Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 1.4.1 Modelling the PTA Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 1.4.2 Markov Chain Monte Carlo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 1.5 Thesis Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 2 On Measuring the Gravitational-Wave Background Using Pulsar Timing Arrays . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 2.2 The Theory of GW-Generated Timing Residuals. . . . . . . . . . . . 25 2.2.1 Timing Residual Correlation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 2.3 Bayesian Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 2.3.1 Basic Ideas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 2.3.2 Removal of Quadratic Spindown and Other Systematic Signals of Known Functional Form. . . . . . . . 29 2.3.3 Low-Frequency Cut-Off. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 2.4 Numerical Integration Techniques. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 2.4.1 Metropolis Monte Carlo. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 2.4.2 Current MCMC Computational Cost. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 2.4.3 Choosing a Suitable Prior Distribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 2.4.4 Generating Mock Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 2.5 Tests and Parameter Studies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 2.5.1 Single Dataset Tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 2.5.2 Multiple Datasets, Same Input Parameters . . . . . . . . . . . 38 ix
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