Governing without a Majority: Dilemmas for Hung Parliaments in Britain PDF
Preview Governing without a Majority: Dilemmas for Hung Parliaments in Britain
GOVERNING WITHOUT A MAJORITY Also by David Butler * THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1951 THE ELECTORAL SYSTEM IN BRITAIN 1918--1951 * THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1955 THE STUDY OF POLITICAL BEHAVIOUR * ELECTIONS ABROAD (editor) * THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1959 (with Richard Rose) *THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1964 (with Anthony King) *THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1966 (with Anthony King) * POLITICAL CHANGE IN BRITAIN (with Donald Stokes) *THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1970 (with Michael JDinto-Duschinsky) * THE CANBERRA MODEL * THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF FEBRUARY 1974 (with Dennis Kavanagh) * THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF OCTOBER 197 4 (with Dennis Kavanagh) *THE 1975 REFERENDUM (with Uwe Kit:dnger) * COALITIONS IN BRITISH POLITICS (editor) * POLICY AND POLITICS (with A. H. Halsey) *THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1979 (with Dennis Kavanagh) REFERENDUMS (with A. Ranney) EUROPEAN ELECTIONS AND BRITISH POLITICS (with David Marquand) DEMOCRACY AT THE POLLS (with H. JDenniman and A. Ranney) * THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1983 (with Dennis Kavanagh) DEMOCRACY AND ELECTIONS (with V. Bogdanor) *PARTY STRATEGIES IN BRITAIN (with JDau/jowett) A COMPENDIUM OF INDIAN ELECTIONS (with Ashok Lahiri and JDrannoy Roy) * BRITISH POLITICAL FACTS 1900--1985 (with Gareth Butler) * also published by Palgrave Macmillan GOVERNING WITHOUT A MAJORITY Dilemmas for Hung Parliaments in Britain DAVID BUTLER Fell ow of N uffield College, Oxford Second Edition M ©David Butler 1983 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 2nd edition 1983 978-0-333-43488-8 All rights reserved, No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1956 (as amended). Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. First edition (Collins) 1983 Second edition (Macmillan) 1986 Published by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG2l 2XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Butler, David, 1924-- Governing without a majority: dilemmas for hung parliaments in Britain.-2nd ed. I. Cabinet system-Great Britain 2. Coalition governments-Great Britain I. Title 354.41 JN405 ISBN 978-0-333-43489-5 ISBN 978-1-349-18472-9 (eBook) DOl 10.1007/978-1-349-18472-9 CONTENTS List of tables 6 Preface to the second edition 7 1 A changing constitution 9 2 Electoral systems and hung parliaments 20 3 Past British experience 35 4 Experience abroad 56 5 Forming a government 72 6 The nature of the bargain 110 7 The problem of dissolution 122 8 Wider considerations 135 Notes 147 Bibliography 151 Index 153 LIST OF TABLES Table Page Change of Conservative share of two-party vote 1955-83 22 2 Conservative share of seats in various regions 1955-83 22 3 Results and majorities 1950-83 26 4 Gap in votes between Conservative and Labour 1950-83 26 5 Five hypothetical pictures of votes and seats 28 6 Five scenarios for three-way outcomes 30 7 Irish elections 1969 and 1973 33 8 Nature of British governments 1900-1986 36 9 Election results 1906 and 1910 39 10 General election 14 December 1918 42 11 General election 6 December 1923 44 12 General election 30 May 1929 45 13 General election 27 October 1931 47 14 General election 28 February 1974 51 15 General election 10 October 1974 52 16 Variations on a hung parliament 74 17 General election 28 February 1974 102 18 Two hypothetical election outcomes 140 6 PREFACE This book was first written in 1982. It followed two conferences in Nuffield College which the author arranged with Vernon Bogdanor. We and our colleagues were concerned to think about the general problems that would follow from a hung parliament or still more from a series of hung parliaments. Our discussions did not assume that a hung parliament would occur in the next election (or even in the election after that) but we took it for g•anted that the arrival of a third party and the new volatility of voters had greatly increased the likelihood of an election result in which no one party secured a clear majority. In October 1985, under the auspices of the Constitutional Reform Centre, a third conference was held. This second edition draws on all three conferences. But it remains the sole responsibility of one author. Vernon Bogdanor has set out his own conclusions in Multi-Party Politics and the Constitution (Cambridge, 1983) and in a more recent Constitutional Reform Centre pamphlet No Overall Majority (CRC, 1986). In the pages that follow, I have largely kept to my 1983 text, updating and amplifying the argument where it seems appropriate. This book is to appear in 1986 but, like its predecessor, it is not based on a prediction that the next election will result in a hung parliament. It merely assumes that some time between now and the end of the century, one or more hung parliaments are likely to occur and it explores the constitutional problems that may well follow. 7 8 PREFACE The unwritten rules of the game of British politics are deeply intertwined with the assumption that one party will win a clear majority and rule the roost. If that assumption is no longer valid, a very large proportion of the normal conventions of government would come under challenge. This book results from a belief that it is well to think in advance about the problems that will anse. I have drawn heavily on the writings and the friendship of Vernon Bogdanor in preparing this book. I should also, without committing anyone to anything I have said, acknowledge how much I owe to those who attended one or all of the N uffield conferences: Alan Beith, MP Geoffrey Marshall Lord Blake Robert McLennan, MP John Curtice Austin Mitchell, MP S. E. Finer Charles Morrison, MP Sir Henry Fisher Sir Patrick Nairne Sir John Herbecq Sir Michael Palliser Richard Holme Peter Pulzer RobertJackson, MP Geoffrey Smith Peter Jenkins Michael Steed Paul McKee Anthony Teasdale David McKie William Wallace David Marquand Philip Williams I should thank especially the critical readers of my text, including John Curtice, David Bradley, Dennis Kavanagh, Hugh Berrington, James Mitchell, Hugh Morrison, Chris Patten and Paul Jowett as well as several of the conferees listed above. Audrey Skeats persuaded a word-processor to produce a manuscript that was in typography, if nothing else, immaculate. David Butler Nuffield College, May 1986 CHAPTER ONE A Changing Constitution THE PEOPLE OF BRIT I~ have been accustomed to making a simple political choice. In each general election the voters have, effectively, been asked to decide which of two parties should govern. Over the last 55 years, with one slight exception, they have always sent a clear Conservative majority or a clear Labour majority to the House of Commons. Since 1945 every government has been formed entirely from one party. The King or Queen has never been faced with a real dilemma over who should be asked to be Prime Minister. Events have fostered in politicians, in civil servants, and in ordinary citizens a habit of mind that assumes the conduct of government to rest in the hands of a single party that commands a parliamentary majority. But there is, of course, nothing inevitable about such a situation. Most of the democracies in the world have multi-party governments; indeed, many have had no experience of one party obtaining an absolute majority. And Britain in the 1980s is the scene ofd evelopments which make the uninterrupted continuance of the decisive majorities of the 1950s and 1960s more and more unlikely. However, neither public opinion nor constitutional arr angements seem prepared for the problems that must arise when elections fail to produce dear decisions. If three parties emerge with roughly equal numbers of MPs (and if, perhaps, several other significant groups are represented in Parliament), what will, or what should follow? What should the sovereign do? How should the party leaders react? And, 9 D. Butler, Governing without a Majority © David Butler 1983
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