God, Chance and Purpose: Can God Have It Both Ways? PDF
Preview God, Chance and Purpose: Can God Have It Both Ways?
MMMM This page intentionally left blank GOD, CHANCE AND PURPOSE Scientificaccountsofexistencegivechanceacentralrole.Atthe smallestlevel,quantumtheoryinvolvesuncertainty,andevolution isdrivenbychanceandnecessity.Theseideasdonotfiteasilywith theology,inwhichchancehasbeenseenastheenemyofpurpose. Oneoptionistoargue,asproponentsofIntelligentDesigndo,that chanceisnotrealandcanbereplacedbytheworkofaDesigner. OthersadheretoadeterministictheologyinwhichGodisintotal control. Neither of these views, it is argued, does justice to the complexityofnatureorthegreatnessofGod.Thethesisofthisbook isthatchanceisneitherunrealnornon-existentbutanintegralpart ofGod’screation.Thisviewisexpounded,illustratedanddefended bydrawingontheresourcesofprobabilitytheoryandnumerous examplesfromthenaturalandsocialworlds. David J. Bartholomew isEmeritusProfessorofStatisticsat theLondonSchoolofEconomicsandPoliticalScience.Hisnumer- ouspublicationsincludeMeasuringIntelligence:FactsandFallacies (2004). GOD, CHANCE AND PURPOSE CanGodHaveItBothWays? DAVID J. BARTHOLOMEW CAMBRIDGEUNIVERSITYPRESS Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB28RU, UK Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521880855 © David J. Bartholomew 2008 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provision of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published in print format 2008 ISBN-13 978-0-511-38620-6 eBook (EBL) ISBN-13 978-0-521-88085-5 hardback ISBN-13 978-0-521-70708-4 paperback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of urls for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. Contents Listoffigures page vii Preface ix 1 1 Whatistheproblem? 2 16 Whatischance? 3 28 Orderoutofchaos 4 55 Chaosoutoforder 5 67 Whatisprobability? 6 77 Whatcanverysmallprobabilitiestellus? 7 CanIntelligentDesignbeestablished 97 scientifically? 8 116 Statisticallaws 9 136 God’sactioninthequantumworld 10 156 Thehumanuseofchance 11 173 God’schance 12 196 Thechallengetochance v vi Contents 13 211 Choiceandchance 14 223 Godandrisk 243 References 248 Furtherreading 250 Index Figures 3 1 . Theformoftheexponentialfrequency 35 distribution page 3 2 . Theformofthenormalfrequency 37 distribution 81 . Thefrequencydistributionofthetwo 122 outcomesinasingletossofafaircoin 82 . Thefrequencydistributionofrunlengthin 123 successivetossesofafaircoin 83 . Thebinomialdistributionofthenumberof 124 headsinfourtossesofafaircoin vii
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