Globalization, War, and Peace in the Twenty-First Century Also by William R. Nester Globalization: A Short History of the Modern World (Palgrave Macmillan, 2010) Globalization, Wealth, and Power in the Twenty-First Century (Palgrave Macmillan, 2010) Globalization, War, and Peace in the Twenty-first Century William R. Nester Palgrave macmillan GLOBALIZATION, WAR, AND PEACE IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY Copyright © William R. Nester, 2010. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2010 978-0-230-10699-4 All rights reserved. First published in 2010 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN® in the United States—a division of St. Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-29043-7 ISBN 978-0-230-11739-6 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230117396 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Nester, William R., 1956– Globalization, war, and peace in the twenty-first century / William R. Nester. p. cm. 1. War. 2. Politics and war. 3. World politics—21st century. 4. Globalization—Political aspects. I. Title. JZ6385.N47 2010 303.696—dc22 2010014446 A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. Design by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd., Chennai, India. First edition: December 2010 Contents List of Tables vii Acknowledgments ix Introduction 1 1 The Nature, Creation, and Assertion of Power 3 2 Why Nations Go to War and Stay at Peace 27 3 Warfare in the Twenty-First Century 55 4 Terrorism and Counterterrorism 77 5 Weapons of Mass Destruction 95 6 War, Peace, and the Global Community 127 7 Consequences 165 Notes 173 Index 191 Tables 3.1 Merchants of Death?: The Top Ten Arms Exporters, 2000–2009 66 5.1 Nuclear Weapons by Country, 2010 97 5.2 Nuclear Weapons Tests 98 6.1 R ecent Conventional and Nuclear Restriction Treaties 147 Acknowledgments I want to express my deepest appreciation to Farideh Koohi-Kamali, the Editorial Director, Erin Ivy, the Production Manager, and Rohini Krishnan, the proofreader for all their wonderful support in produc- ing my book. They are all as nice as they are true professionals. Introduction There is nothing so likely to produce peace as to be well prepared to meet our enemies. George Washington A country cannot simultaneously prepare and prevent war. Albert Einstein Violence is as old as humanity. Organized violence or war is as old as the first organized societies. Throughout history most states were preparing for, engaging in, or recovering from war. Yet recently the threat or use of violence in international relations, known as geopoli- tics, has sharply diminished as nearly all states are at peace all or most of the time. The reason is globalization. Globalization is just another word for the ever more complex eco- nomic, technological, psychological, social, legal, cultural, environ- mental, and, thus, political interdependence embracing, in varying ways and degrees, all nations and individuals on the planet.1 Thomas Friedman explains the paradoxes at globalization’s heart: “global- ization is everything and its opposite. It can be incredibly empow- ering and incredibly coercive. It can democratize opportunity and it can democratize panic . . . While it is homogenizing cultures, it is also enabling people to share their unique individuality farther and wider . . . It enables us to reach into world as never before and it enables the world to reach into each of us as never before.”2 That entangling web of ever denser interdependence does pose risks. For many the images of Osama bin Laden cradling a Kalashnikov and airliners exploding into skyscrapers define the times in which we live. Yet, for many others, that image obscures rather than illu- minates the nature of today’s world. Their worry is not that some terrorist will take their lives, but that poor but bright, skilled peo- ple in China, India, or elsewhere will take their jobs. They contend that globalization is accelerating the pace of a race to the bottom in 2 GLOBALIZATION, WAR, AND PEACE wages, work conditions, and pollution. While people in rich countries might enjoy the cheaper prices for products that corporations have outsourced to cheaper labor markets overseas, over the long term, the First World’s economies will be locked into a vicious cycle in which national wealth, worker wages, and government revenues drop, while joblessness, crime, and despair rise. Also, there are those whose pri- mary fear is that the world as we today know it may die with the proverbial whimper rather than a bang. Global warming has a deadly boomerang effect. We are contributing to it and it will inflict ever worse economic and human disasters upon us, its creator. Nonetheless geopolitical conflicts and violence instigated by rogue states, militant ideologies, transnational terrorist groups, revolution- ary movements, voracious, ruthless economic interests, and environ- mental collapse continue to plague countries and regions around the world. Although each geopolitical conflict has unique causes, under- lying them all is some volatile mix of the best and worst of human nature. Many a war has been fought under the lofty banner of jus- tice, freedom, and equality, whether those goals were sincere or not. Regardless, nearly all are provoked by the far darker motives of greed, aggression, fear, vengeance, hatred, and ignorance. Globalization, War, and Peace in the Twenty-first Century explores humanity’s most persistent and tragic problem by answering five cru- cial questions: How is power in general and military power in par- ticular best created and asserted? Why do nations go to war or stay at peace? What continuities and changes characterize recent warfare? What are the sources, methods, and results of terrorism and counter- terrorism? What are weapons of mass destruction and what is the like- lihood of them being used? What constraints, if any, do international laws and organizations have on war? All along, this book reveals why war persists even though the ever thickening web of interdependent relations among nation-states and peoples, known as globalization, sharply raises its costs and reduces its benefits.3