Globalization and National Economic Welfare M. Panic Globalization and National Economic Welfare Also by M. Pani´c CAPACITY UTILISATION IN UK MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA (co-editor with A. Vacic´) EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION: Lessons from the Classical Gold Standard NATIONAL MANAGEMENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY PRODUCT CHANGES IN INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES’ TRADE: 1955–1968 (with A. H. Rajan) REFORM OF THEINTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM (with A. E. Astapovich and others) UK AND WEST GERMAN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY 1954–72 (editor) Globalization and National Economic Welfare M. Panic´ Fellow of Selwyn College University of Cambridge, UK © Dr Milivoje Panic´ 2003 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 20 (cid:17)(cid:20) All rights reserved.No reproduction,copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced,copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright,Designs and Patents Act 1988,or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency,90 Tottenham Court Road,London W1T 4LP. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2003 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Houndmills,Basingstoke,Hampshire RG21 6XS and 175 Fifth Avenue,New York,N.Y.10010 Companies and representatives throughout the world PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St.Martin’s Press,LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan® is a registered trademark in the United States,United Kingdom and other countries.Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN 0–333–77283–0 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Panic´,M. Globalization and national economic welfare/M.Panic´ p.cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1.International economic relations.2.Globalization 3.National state.I.Title HF1418.5.P364 2003 337—dc21 2002030796 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 ISBN 978-1-349-41587-8 ISBN 978-0-230-51248-1 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230512481 To the memory of my parents This page intentionally left blank Contents List of Tables viii List of Figures ix Preface x Acknowledgements xvi Part I Introduction 1 Globalization: The Meaning, the Claims and the Reality 3 Part II The Dynamics of Macroeconomic Organization 2 Economic Progress and Organization in Capitalist Economies 53 3 International Economic Integration and the Changing Role of National Governments 72 4 The Future Role of the State in Eastern Europe 96 Part III The Origins of Globalization: Institutional and Spontaneous 5 Economic Development and Trade Policy 117 6 Transnational Corporations and the Nation State 148 Part IV Globalization, Cooperation and Supranationalism 7 The Aspirations Gap, Interdependence and Global Inflation 177 8 International Interdependence and the Debt Problem 191 9 Banking Supervision in Conditions of Deregulation and Globalization 208 10 The Bretton Woods System: Concept and Practice 228 11 The End of the Nation State? 245 Bibliography 260 Index of Names 275 Subject Index 279 vii List of Tables 3.1 Factors which determine the effectiveness of government economic policies 75 3.2 Long-term economic performance of 16 leading industrial countries, 1870–1989 79 3.3 Exchange rate changes and overall economic performance of selected industrial countries, 1976–89 88 5.1 Rank correlations of per capita levels of GDP/GNP and industrialization, 1913–80 134 5.2 Rank correlations of growth of GDP per capita and levels and changes in protection (all imports), 1965–80 137 5.3 Rank correlations of protection levels and per capita levels of GDP and industrialization, 1913–80 138 7.1 Average annual increases in consumer prices, 1959–74 178 7.2 Level of income, income inequality and industrial strife 180 8.1 Total debt disbursed at year end and debt service ratios, 1971–82 193 8.2 Growth and trade, 1968–82 (average annual percentage changes) 196 8.3 Non-oil-developing countries: exports and trends in interest payments on medium and long-term debt (average annual percentage changes) 198 8.4 Major banks’ average credit ratings of country groups, 1979–83 199 8.5 Increasing disequilibria in industrial countries, 1968–82 202 viii List of Figures 5.1 A taxonomy of protection levels 130 5.2 Tariff levels on all imports and GDP per capita, 1913 139 5.3 Tariff levels on all imports and GDP per capita, 1965 141 5.4 Tariff levels on all imports and GDP per capita, 1980 142 5.5 Levels of managed trade in manufactured goods and industrialization per capita, 1979 143 5.6 Long-term changes in the ranking of 15 countries according to their tariff levels and GDP per capita 144 ix