Global Warming: The Potential Impact on Japan

250 Pages·1998·7.924 MB·English

by  Shinji Nakagawa, Masato Sugi, Tatsuo Motoi, Seiji Yukimoto (auth.), Shuzo Nishioka, Hideo Harasawa (eds.)

Springer
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s.
Nishioka, H. Harasawa
(Eds.)
Global Warming
The Potential Impact on Japan
With 50 Figures
Springer
Shuzo Nishioka
Director
Global Environment Research Group
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Environment Agency of Japan
16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0053, Japan
Hideo Harasawa
Section Head
Environmental Planning Section
Social and Environmental Systems Division
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Environment Agency of Japan
16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0053, Japan
ISBN-13: 978-4-431-68493-0 e-ISBN -13: 978-4-431-68491-6
DOl: 10.1007/978-4-431-68491-6
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Global warming: the potential impact on Japan I S. Nishioka, H.
Harasawa, eds.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
(hardcover: alk. paper)
1. Global warming. 2. Climatic changes-Environmental aspects
Japan. I. Nishioka, Shilzo. II. Harasawa, Hideo.
QC981.8.G56G5836 1998
363.738'74'0952-dc21 98-25967
Printed on acid-free paper
© Springer-Verlag Tokyo 1998
Softcover reprint of the hardcover I st edition 1998
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the
material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations,
recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in other ways, and storage in data
banks.
The use of registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the
absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws
and regulations and therefore free for general use.
Typesetting: Camera-ready by editors/ authors
SPIN: 10681395
Global Warming: The Potential Impact on Japan
Preface
What will be the potential impact of the anticipated climate change on Japan? This
book reviews and summarizes research from Japan on this issue through 1996.
Many difficulties are present in estimating precisely the impact of climate change.
The research results vary greatly depending on how regional climate scenarios are
chosen, what impact models are applied, whether enough geographical and social
data exist in each exposure unit, and what economic methods are used in
evaluating the impact. Although many such problems remain, the methodology to
evaluate climate change impacts has been fairly wel1 established and has been
applied to many regions and sectors, with the results reported in the impact report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Because response strategy poses a huge and costly effort, to identify which of
those anticipated impacts are serious to society is the key to policy making.
Deciding at what level we should stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gas at
what rate and along what path ful1y depends on whether those ecological and
economic effects are truly dangerous to nature and society.
For the reasons just stated, impact studies should be based strictly on research
carried out scientifical1y and objectively, and an assessment of the methodology of
the impact studies, summarizing existing studies and reports to the decision maker,
also should be carried out scientifical1y.
The IPCC report of 1995 stated that it is the role of policy makers to define the
level of danger, and that the role of scientists is to provide the scientific and
technical basis for policy decisions. This report on the impact of climate change on
Japan is predicated on this principle and serves as the basis for the cooperative
efforts of scientists and policy makers. How to evaluate the degree of seriousness
of the climate impacts reported here is the purview of policy makers and the
public.
This report has multiple objectives. First, it can be the basis for part of the
"National Communication-Potential Impacts of Climate Change in Japan," to be
reported to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). The
vulnerability of Japan to climate change thus can be reported worldwide. Second,
this report, translated into Japanese, can provide information to the people of
vi Preface
Japan, illustrating, with phenomena that are familiar to them, the necessity of a
response strategy. Third, this report can be used by researchers of climate impact
as a guideline for their next research target. Fourth, the interdisciplinary research
network will be strengthened through this collaborative editorial endeavor.
A similar project was undertaken in 1991. A Working Group for Impact
Studies, established under the Advisory Committee of Climate Change, edited
"The Potential Impacts of Climate Change in Japan" (published by the Center for
Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies
CGER/NIES), which has been distributed worldwide. A Japanese version was also
published.
Since 1991, when the above-mentioned report was compiled, Japanese research
societies have expanded their work in this field significantly with increased
research funding by the government. The present report collects these more
extensive and in-depth research results which have been reviewed systematically.
The general conclusion of this new report endorses that of the earlier effort.
How to incorporate the regional scenarios into individual local impact studies
is always controversial. Most of the research referred to in this report is based on
carbon-dioxide-doubling scenarios calculated from the global climate model
(GCM) published up to 1992, or is obtained through sensitivity analysis where
temperature/precipitation increases are rather arbitrarily determined. It should be
pointed out that Chapter 1 of this report, "Climate Change Projection," is not the
regional climate scenario on which the studies that follow are based. The
description in this chapter is based on the recent (up to 1996) results of GCMs, and
should be used to check whether the scenarios used in the studies reviewed here
have a reasonable or acceptable range. Chapter 1 also provides useful information
on a climate scenario that can be used for future impact studies.
An impact study needs more high-resolution scenarios, but climate models are
hesitant to posit them, considering the cost/benefit of high-resolution calculation
using limited computer resources, poor data, and poor understanding of the
mechanisms involved.
Another question arises as to whether impact studies should be limited only to
Japan. Japan depends on imports for 70% of its food, calculated in basic calories,
and the land used to produce those imported foods amounts to two or three times
the land area of Japan. The indirect impacts of climate change on Japan from
outside the country through the trade mechanism is something Japan should be
concerned about. The same is true of forestry and fishery resources. This report
has not dealt with these indirect impacts, and few studies have done so.
Preface vii
In December 1995, the Environment Agency of Japan established a Working
Group for Assessment of Climate Change Impacts as a part of the Advisory
Committee on Climate Change which has been responsible to the IPCC since
1988. The Working Group consisted of lead authors in eight major sectors of
importance, and each lead author organized a team of four to six experts, which
brought the total number of contributors to 30. The members collected and
reviewed the research papers in their specific fields. A workshop was held in July
1996 to coordinate their work and prepare a draft report, which was reviewed by
outside experts. All the work was supported by the Office of Research and
Communication of the Global Environment Division of the Environment Agency,
the Center for Global Environmental Research of the National Institute for
Environmental Studies, and the Global Environment Forum. and Mr. Fukuwatari
greatly contributed to coordinating this entire work.
This review project gave us rare and valuable opportunity to collaborate with
experts whose fields and disciplines differ widely, a perspective truly needed in the
field of global change research. Although a difficult task, the frank exchange of
diversified knowledge was an exciting and enjoyable exercise. Our heartfelt
appreciation goes to our colleagues who so generously and wholeheartedly
participated in this project.
Shuzo NISHIOKA
Hideo HARASAW A
viii
Contents
Preface ................................................................................. v
Editors, Authors and Reviewers ....................................... xii
Chapter 1 Climate Change Projections
Summary ............••.•..•.•....•....•.•..•.....•......•.•........•............•.•.•......•......•..•. 1
1.1 Introduction ....•...................•.................................•......................•.. 3
1.2 Global-scale climate change projection ....................................... 4
1.2.1 Emission scenarios of GHGs.................................................... 4
1.2.2 Projections of future climate change ........................................ 5
1.3 Climate change projections for Japan ......................................... 14
1.3.1 Changes in temperature and precipitation ............................... 14
1.3.2 Changes in meteorological phenomenon indigenous to Japan 23
1.4 Future subjects .................•..........•.............................•.................... 29
References ............................................................................................ 30
Chapter 2 Impacts on Natural Ecosystems
Summary .•..........................•........................................................•......... 35
2.1 Introduction •....•............................•.•...........................•.•.•............... 39
2.2 Impacts on mountainous region .................................................... 39
2.2.1 Impacts on geomorphological processes of mountains ............ 39
2.2.2 Impacts of global warming on forest distribution..................... 42
2.3 Impacts of global warming on grasslands in Japan..................... 65
2.3.1 Characteristics and vulnerability of grassland in Japan............ 65
2.3.2 Effects of global warming and human impact
on grasslands in Japan .............................................................. 67
2.3.3 Future problems ....................................................................... 70
2.4 Desertification: Effects on Japan across national borders ......... 71
2.4.1 Desertification ........................................................................ 71
2.4.2 Desertification in China .......................................................... 72
2.4.3 Impact on Japan....................................................................... 74
2.5 Impacts on wetlands....................................................................... 75
2.5.1 Wetlands characteristics and fragility...................................... 75
2.5.2 Effects of warming and human activities ................................. 76
2.6 Impacts on biodiversity and nature conservation areas.............. 81
2.6.1 Warming and rare species, extinction of distribution ally-
bound species ......................................................................... 83
Contents ix
2.6.2 Warming-induced degradation of conservation areas.............. 85
2.6.3 Compound effects from warming and human activity............. 87
References ............................................................................................. 88
Chapter 3 Impacts on Agriculture, Forestry and
Fisheries
Summary ..............................................................................•..........•..•.. 101
3.1 Introduction ....•.........................•.•..........•.••...............................•..•.. 104
3.2 Importance and vulnerability ........................................................ 105
3.2.1 Agriculture............................................................................... 105
3.2.2 Forest and forestry ................................................................... 106
3.3.3 Fisheries................................................................................... 107
3.3 State-of-art in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries
research sector .•.•....•................•..............•.•..•.............•.................... 108
3.3.1 Agriculture ............................................................................... 108
3.3.2 Forest and forestry ................................................................... 115
3.3.3 Fisheries................................................................................... 116
3.4 Future research needs .....•...•...........•.•..........................................•. 122
3.4.1 Agriculture .............................................................................. 122
3.4.2 Forest and forestry ................................................................... 123
3.4.4 Fisheries .................................................................................. 123
References •.•.••.•.••.•.•.................•.•...•.......•......•.•..•........•.•................•....•• 124
Chapter 4 Impacts on Hydrology / Water Resources
and Water Environment
Summary ............................................................................................... 131
4.1 Introduction •..........•....•.......•.•.•.•...•......•.•.•...•....•............................ 133
4.2 Hydrology and water resources .................................................... 133
4.2.1 Hydrology and water resources characteristics ....................... 133
4.2.2 Effect of warming on hydrology and water Resource/
countermeasures to warming .................................................... 134
4.2.3 River flow predictions based on warming scenarios and
long-term runoff models ........................................................... 135
4.2.4 Evaluation of effects based on Meteorological Agency
general circulation model and Ministry of Construction,
mesoscale hydro-meteorological models ................................. 140
4.2.5 Evaluation of effects based on CRIEPI regional
climate model .......................................................................... 141
4.2.6 Effects on snow and ice............................................................ 141
4.3 Freshwater ecosystem ..........•.............•...••.••.•.•••.•.•.•............•••••••... 142
4.3.1 Characteristics of freshwater ecosystem in Japan .................... 142
x Contents
4.3.2 Effects of climatic warming on freshwater ecosystem
in Japan..................................................................................... 143
4.4 Coastal and marine environment ................................................. 149
4.4.1 Characteristics of coastal and marine environments ................ 149
4.4.2 Impacts on coastal and marine environments .......................... 153
4.5 Future research needs ................................................................... 157
References ............................................................................................ 158
Chapter 5 Impacts on Infrastructure and Socio
economic System
Summary ............................................................................................... 165
5.1 Introduction .................................................................................... 168
5.2 Present situation and problems regarding coastal zones, human
settlements, social infrastructure, and industrial activities......... 168
5.2.1 Coastal zones .......................................................................... 168
5.2.2 Infrastructure ........................................................................... 172
5.2.3 Industry and energy ................................................................. 174
5.3 Researches on vulnerability of coastal zones, human settlement,
infrastructure, and industrial activities ....................................... 177
5.3.1 Impacts on coastal zones ......................................................... 177
5.3.2 Impacts on human settlement .................................................. 182
5.3.3 Impacts on infrastructures ....................................................... 186
5.3.4 Impacts and energy sector ........................................................ 189
5.4 Future research needs ................................................................... 195
References ............................................................................................ 197
Chapter 6 Impacts on Human Health
Summary .............................................................................................. 203
6.1 Direct Impacts of global warming on human health in Japan ••• 204
6.1.1 Introduction ............................................................................ 204
6.1.2 Impacts on heat waves on human health ................................. 205
6.1.3 Possible adaptability to heat stress ......................................... 207
6.2 Impacts on vector-borne diseases ................................................. 208
6.3 Impacts of warming on mortality ................................................. 209
6.3.1 Introduction ......................................................................... 209
6.3.2 Important issues for Japan ...................................................... 209
6.3.3 Recent research on mortality and temperature ........................ 210
6.3.4 Future research needs ............................................................. 212
References ............................................................................................ 212
Contents xi
Chapter 7 Vulnerability of Japan to Climate Change
Summary .......•..•..........•.....................•.•............•........................•.......... 215
7.1 Introduction .................................................................................. . 217
7.2 Vulnerability to extreme climate events in Japan ...................... . 217
7.2.1 Definition of extreme events ................................................... . 217
7.2.2 Description of extreme events in IPCC Second Assessment
Report .................................................................................... . 218
7.2.3 Vulnerability of Japan to extreme events ................................ . 218
7.2.4 Examples of vulnerability ........................................................ . 222
7.3 Impacts of global warming on environmental quality ...•..•.......•. 224
7.3.1 Impacts on atmospheric environment ..................................... . 224
7.3.2 Combined impacts of global warming and local
environmental pollution ........................................................... . 225
7.4 Impact of hot summers in 1994 and 1995 ................................... .. 227
7.4.1 Characteristics of climate/weather in 1994 and 1995 ............. . 228
7.4.2 Factors affected by hot summers ............................................ . 229
7.4.3 Potential impacts of global warming on daily living .............. . 232
7.5 Future research needs .................................................................. . 234
References 235
Index ....................................................................................................... .
239