Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country

203 Pages·2007·1.5 MB·English

by  William R. Cline

GLOBAL WARMING
and AGRICULTURE
Impact Estimates by Country

GLOBAL WARMING
and AGRICULTURE
Impact Estimates by Country
William R. Cline
CENTER FOR GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
PETERSON INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
Washington, DC
July 2007
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William R. Clineis a senior fellow jointly Copyright © 2007 by the Center for Global
at the Center for Global Development Development and the Peterson Institute
(since 2002) and the Peterson Institute for for International Economics. All rights
International Economics (since 1981). reserved. No part of this book may be
During 1996–2001, he was deputy manag- reproduced or utilized in any form or by
ing director and chief economist at the any means, electronic or mechanical,
Institute of International Finance. He was a including photocopying, recording, or by
senior fellow at the Brookings Institution information storage or retrieval system,
(1973–81); deputy director of development without permission from the Center and
and trade research, office of the assistant the Institute.
secretary for international affairs, US
Treasury Department (1971–73); Ford For reprints/permission to photocopy
Foundation visiting professor in Brazil please contact the APS customer service
(1970–71); and lecturer and assistant pro- department at Copyright Clearance Center,
fessor of economics at Princeton University Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA
(1967–70). He is the author of 22 books, 01923; or email requests to:
including The United States as a Debtor [email protected]
Nation(2005), Trade Policy and Global Poverty
(2004),Trade and Income Distribution(1997), Printed in the United States of America
International Debt Reexamined(1995), and 09 08 07 5 4 3 2 1
The Economics of Global Warming (1992),
which was selected by Choicefor its 1993
“Outstanding Academic Books” list and Library of Congress Cataloging-in-
was the winner of the “Harold and Publication Data
Margaret Sprout Prize” for best book of
1992 on International Environmental Cline, William R.
Affairs, awarded by the International Global warming and agriculture :
Studies Association. impact estimates by country /
William R. Cline.
p. cm.
CENTER FOR GLOBALDEVELOPMENT Includes bibliographical references and
1776 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Third floor index.
Washington, DC 20036 ISBN-13: 978-0-88132-403-7 (alk. paper)
[phone] FAX: [phone]. Global warming—Environmental
www.cgdev.org aspects. 2. Plants—Effect of global warm-
ing on. 3. Crops and climate. I. Title.
Nancy Birdsall, President
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Contents
Preface ix
Acknowledgments xv
1 Introduction and Overview 1
Main Features of the Book 3
Plan of the Book 3
2 Brief Survey of Existing Literature 7
3 Key Issues: Carbon Fertilization, Irrigation, and Trade 23
Carbon Fertilization 23
The Irrigation Question 26
Trade as Moderator? 32
4 Country-Level Climate Projections 35
The Climate Models 35
Country-Level Climate Results: Present Day and for 2070–99 37
5 Country-Level Agricultural Impact Estimates 43
Mendelsohn-Schlesinger Agricultural Response Functions 43
Mendelsohn-Schlesinger Estimates for the United States 46
Ricardian Estimates for Developing Countries and Canada 47
Sensitivity to Climate Models 59
Rosenzweig et al. Crop Model Results 61
Synthesis of Preferred Estimates 63
Comparison to Estimates in the Model-Source Studies 80
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6 Dynamic Considerations 87
7 Conclusion 95
Appendix A Standardizing Global Grids of Climate Change Data 101
Appendix B Mapping Grid Cells to Countries 105
Appendix C Calculating the Geographical Area of the Grid Cell 109
Appendix D Definitions of Countries, Regions, and Subzones 111
Appendix E Estimating Farm Area and Agricultural Output
by Country, Region, and Subzone 115
Appendix F Country-Level Results with the Mendelsohn-Schlesinger
Functions 123
Appendix G Ricardian Models for India, Africa, and Latin America 137
Appendix H Monthly Climate Data, 1961–90 and 2070–99 141
Appendix I Dispersion of Climate Projections Across General
Circulation Models 163
References 169
Glossary 175
Index 179
Tables
Table 4.1 General circulation models used for scenarios 36
Table 4.2 Present and future climate: Average temperature
and precipitation 38
Table 4.3 Global land-based climate averages and changes,
1961–90 to 2070–99 42
Table 5.1 Impact of baseline global warming by the 2080s on
US agricultural potential using the Mendelsohn-
Schlesinger functions (without carbon fertilization) 47
Table 5.2 Impact of global warming by the 2080s on Indian
agricultural productivity using the Mendelsohn-
Dinar-Sanghi model 50
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Table 5.3 Impact of climate change by the 2080s on African
agriculture, World Bank Ricardian models
(without carbon fertilization) 51
Table 5.4 Weighted average impact of global warming by
the 2080s on African agriculture 54
Table 5.5 Impact of global warming by the 2080s on
agricultural potential in major Latin American
countries (without carbon fertilization),
World Bank studies 57
Table 5.6 Dispersion of Mendelsohn-Schlesinger Ricardian
model estimates across climate models
(without carbon fertilization) 60
Table 5.7 Rosenzweig-Iglesias agricultural impact estimates
for the 2080s, four major grains and oilseeds 64
Table 5.8 Preferred estimates of impact of baseline global
warming by the 2080s on world agriculture 67
Table 5.9 Change in agricultural capacity by regional aggregates 77
Table 5.10 Agricultural impact by major regions: Developing
and industrial countries 79
Table 6.1 Production of four major crops, by major producers
and world, 2001–04 annual average 90
Table 6.2 Average annual increase in yields per hectare 92
Table 6.3 Meat consumption per capita 93
Table 7.1 Summary estimates for impact of global warming
on world agricultural output potential by the 2080s 96
Table D.1 Subzones of largest countries 112
Table E.1 Estimated land area, farm area, and agricultural
output by country, region, and subzone 119
Table F.1 Impact of climate change by 2070–99 on agricultural
output: Mendelsohn-Schlesinger reduced form
model 125
Table F.2 Impact of climate change by 2070–99 on agriculture:
Mendelsohn-Schlesinger cross-section Ricardian
model 130
Table G.1 Ricardian model for India 138
Table G.2 Ricardian models for Africa 139
Table G.3 Ricardian functions for Argentina, Brazil, Chile,
and Ecuador 140
Table H.1 Average temperature, January–June 142
Table H.2 Average temperature, July–December 147
Table H.3 Average precipitation, January–June 152
Table H.4 Average precipitation, July–December 157
Table I.1 Coefficient of variation for future climate projections
of six models 165
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Figures
Figure 3.1a Irrigation and temperature for US states 28
Figure 3.1b Irrigation and precipitation for US states 28
Figure 5.1 Iso-production curves for the Mendelsohn-Schlesinger
reduced form function 44
Figure 5.2 Impact on agricultural productivity without carbon
fertilization 74
Figure 5.3 Impact on agricultural productivity with carbon
fertilization 75
Figure 5.4 Percent change in agricultural capacity by the 2080s
in 47 countries and regions (without carbon
fertilization) 76
Figure 6.1 Income elasticity of demand for food, tobacco,
and beverages and purchasing power parity
income per capita 88
Box
Box D.1 Multicountry regions 113
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Preface
Public policy on global warming has reached a critical new phase. Calls for
action are escalating, reflecting such developments as heightened public
awareness after Hurricane Katrina, the influential documentary film by
former US Vice President Al Gore, and the high-profile “Stern Review” by
Sir Nicholas Stern for the UK Treasury. In the United States, several states
are adopting measures to discourage carbon dioxide emissions, and the
Supreme Court has ruled that CO is a pollutant to be regulated by the En-
2
vironmental Protection Agency. Internationally, the European Union has
established a functioning system of trading in carbon emission permits.
Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, ne-
gotiations could begin later this year on the post-Kyoto regime after 2012.
Relatively little attention has gone, however, to the likely impact of
global warming at the country level, especially in the developing world,
and the social and economic implications in China, India, Brazil, and the
poor countries of the tropical belt in Africa and Latin America. This book,
on the stakes for world agriculture, by William R. Cline of the Center for
Global Development and the Peterson Institute for International Eco-
nomics, makes a major contribution on this score. Cline’s analysis has
sobering implications for all concerned about global poverty and long-
term economic development. This study starkly confirms the asymmetry
between potentially severe agricultural damages in many poor countries
and milder effects in rich countries.
Cline provided an early broad analysis of climate change 15 years ago in
the pioneering Institute book, The Economics of Global Warming. In this new
study, he uses agricultural impact models of two separate types, “Ricar-
dian” statistical economic models and process-based agronomic crop mod-
els, combined with leading climate model projections, to develop compre-
hensive estimates for agricultural effects in over 100 countries. He develops
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