Table Of Content

Global Warming: A Very Short Introduction http://avaxhome.ws/blogs/ChrisRedfield Very Short Introductions are for anyone wanting a stimulating and accessible way in to a new subject. They are written by experts, and have been published in more than 25 languages worldwide. The series began in 1995, and now represents a wide variety of topics in history, philosophy, religion, science, and the humanities. Over the next few years it will grow to a library of around 200 volumes – a Very Short Introduction to everything from ancient Egypt and Indian philosophy to conceptual art and cosmology. Very Short Introductions available now: ANARCHISM Colin Ward CHRISTIANITY Linda Woodhead ANCIENT EGYPT Ian Shaw CLASSICS Mary Beard and ANCIENT PHILOSOPHY John Henderson Julia Annas CLAUSEWITZ Michael Howard ANCIENT WARFARE THE COLD WAR Robert McMahon Harry Sidebottom Continental Philosophy THE ANGLO-SAXON AGE Simon Critchley John Blair COSMOLOGY Peter Coles ANIMAL RIGHTS CRYPTOGRAPHY David DeGrazia Fred Piper and Sean Murphy ARCHAEOLOGY Paul Bahn DADA AND SURREALISM ARCHITECTURE David Hopkins Andrew Ballantyne Darwin Jonathan Howard ARISTOTLE Jonathan Barnes Democracy Bernard Crick ART HISTORY Dana Arnold DESCARTES Tom Sorell ART THEORY Cynthia Freeland DRUGS Leslie Iversen THE HISTORY OF THE EARTH Martin Redfern ASTRONOMY Michael Hoskin EGYPTIAN MYTH Geraldine Pinch Atheism Julian Baggini EIGHTEENTH-CENTURY Augustine Henry Chadwick BRITAIN Paul Langford BARTHES Jonathan Culler EMOTION Dylan Evans THE BIBLE John Riches EMPIRE Stephen Howe BRITISH POLITICS ENGELS Terrell Carver Anthony Wright Ethics Simon Blackburn Buddha Michael Carrithers The European Union BUDDHISM Damien Keown John Pinder CAPITALISM James Fulcher EVOLUTION THE CELTS Barry Cunliffe Brian and Deborah Charlesworth CHOICE THEORY FASCISM Kevin Passmore Michael Allingham THE FRENCH REVOLUTION CHRISTIAN ART Beth Williamson William Doyle FREE WILL Thomas Pink NORTHERN IRELAND Freud Anthony Storr Marc Mulholland Galileo Stillman Drake PARTICLE PHYSICS Frank Close Gandhi Bhikhu Parekh paul E. P. Sanders GLOBALIZATION Manfred Steger Philosophy Edward Craig GLOBAL WARMING Mark Maslin PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE HEGEL Peter Singer Samir Okasha HEIDEGGER Michael Inwood PLATO Julia Annas HIEROGLYPHS Penelope Wilson POLITICS Kenneth Minogue HINDUISM Kim Knott POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY HISTORY John H. Arnold David Miller HOBBES Richard Tuck POSTCOLONIALISM HUME A. J. Ayer Robert Young IDEOLOGY Michael Freeden POSTMODERNISM Indian Philosophy Christopher Butler Sue Hamilton POSTSTRUCTURALISM Intelligence Ian J. Deary Catherine Belsey ISLAM Malise Ruthven PREHISTORY Chris Gosden JUDAISM Norman Solomon PRESOCRATIC PHILOSOPHY Jung Anthony Stevens Catherine Osborne KAFKA Ritchie Robertson Psychology Gillian Butler and KANT Roger Scruton Freda McManus KIERKEGAARD Patrick Gardiner QUANTUM THEORY THE KORAN Michael Cook John Polkinghorne LINGUISTICS Peter Matthews ROMAN BRITAIN LITERARY THEORY Peter Salway Jonathan Culler ROUSSEAU Robert Wokler LOCKE John Dunn RUSSELL A. C. Grayling LOGIC Graham Priest RUSSIAN LITERATURE MACHIAVELLI Quentin Skinner Catriona Kelly MARX Peter Singer THE RUSSIAN REVOLUTION MATHEMATICS S. A. Smith Timothy Gowers SCHIZOPHRENIA MEDICAL ETHICS Tony Hope Chris Frith and Eve Johnstone MEDIEVAL BRITAIN SCHOPENHAUER John Gillingham and Ralph A. Griffiths Christopher Janaway MODERN IRELAND Senia Pasˇeta SHAKESPEARE MOLECULES Philip Ball Germaine Greer MUSIC Nicholas Cook SOCIAL AND CULTURAL Myth Robert A. Segal ANTHROPOLOGY NIETZSCHE Michael Tanner John Monaghan and Peter Just NINETEENTH-CENTURY SOCIOLOGY Steve Bruce BRITAIN Christopher Harvie and Socrates C. C. W. Taylor H. C. G. Matthew SPINOZA Roger Scruton STUART BRITAIN John Morrill TWENTIETH-CENTURY TERRORISM Charles Townshend BRITAIN Kenneth O. Morgan THEOLOGY David F. Ford Wittgenstein A. C. Grayling THE TUDORS John Guy WORLD MUSIC Philip Bohlman Available soon: AFRICAN HISTORY Habermas Gordon Finlayson John Parker and Richard Rathbone HIROSHIMA THE BRAIN Michael O’Shea B. R. Tomlinson BUDDHIST ETHICS HUMAN EVOLUTION Damien Keown Bernard Wood CHAOS Leonard Smith INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS CITIZENSHIP Richard Bellamy Paul Wilkinson CLASSICAL ARCHITECTURE JAZZ Brian Morton Robert Tavernor MANDELA Tom Lodge CLONING Arlene Judith Klotzko THE MIND Martin Davies CONSCIOUSNESS Sue Blackmore MODERN ART David Cottington CONTEMPORARY ART NATIONALISM Steven Grosby Julian Stallabrass PERCEPTION Richard Gregory THE CRUSADES PHILOSOPHY OF RELIGION Christopher Tyerman Jack Copeland and Diane Proudfoot Derrida Simon Glendinning PHOTOGRAPHY Steve Edwards DESIGN John Heskett THE RAJ Denis Judd Dinosaurs David Norman THE RENAISSANCE DREAMING J. Allan Hobson Jerry Brotton ECONOMICS Partha Dasgupta RENAISSANCE ART THE ELEMENTS Philip Ball Geraldine Johnson THE END OF THE WORLD ROMAN EMPIRE Bill McGuire Christopher Kelly EXISTENTIALISM Thomas Flynn SARTRE Christina Howells FEMINISM Margaret Walters THE SPANISH CIVIL WAR THE FIRST WORLD WAR Helen Graham Michael Howard TIME Leofranc Holford-Strevens FOUCAULT Garry Gutting TRAGEDY Adrian Poole FUNDAMENTALISM THE TWENTIETH CENTURY Malise Ruthven Martin Conway For more information visit our web site www.oup.co.uk/vsi Mark Maslin GLOBAL WARMING A Very Short Introduction 1 3 Great Clarendon Street, Oxford ox2 6dp Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide in Oxford New York AucklandBangkokBuenos AiresCape TownChennai Dar es SalaamDelhiHong KongIstanbulKarachiKolkata Kuala LumpurMadridMelbourneMexico CityMumbaiNairobi São PauloShanghaiTaipei TokyoToronto Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries Published in the United States by Oxford University Press Inc., New York © Mark Maslin 2004 The moral rights of the author have been asserted Database right Oxford University Press (maker) First published as a Very Short Introduction 2004 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics rights organizations. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above You must not circulate this book in any other binding or cover and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Data available Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Data available ISBN 0–19–284097–5 1357910864 2 Typeset by RefineCatch Ltd, Bungay, Suffolk Printed in Great Britain by TJ International Ltd., Padstow, Cornwall Contents Acknowledgements ix Abbreviations xi List of illustrations xiii Introduction 1 1 What is global warming? 4 2 A brief history of the global warming hypothesis 23 3 Your viewpoint determines the future 36 4 What is the evidence for climate change? 43 5 How do you model the future? 67 6 What are the possible future impacts of global warming? 83 7 Surprises 102 8 Politics 118 9 What are the alternatives? 134 10 Conclusion 146 Further reading 151 Index 153 This page intentionally left blank Acknowledgements The author would like to thank the following people: Johanna and Alexandra Maslin for being there; Emma Simmons and Marsha Filion for their excellent editing and skill of finally extracting the book from me; Catherine D’Alton and Elanor McBay of the Department of Geography Drawing Office UCL; John Adams for helping me develop my critical view of this debate; Richard Betts and Eric Wolff for their insightful and extremely helpful reviews; and all my colleagues in climatology, palaeoclimatology, social science, and economics who continue to strive to understand and predict our influence on climate.