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This page intentionally left blank Global Warming TheCompleteBriefing ThirdEdition Global warming and the resulting climate change are among the most serious environmental problems facing the world community. Global Warming:TheCompleteBriefingisthemostcomprehensiveguideavail- able to the subject. A world-renowned expert, Sir John Houghton ex- plores the scientific basis of global warming and the likely impacts of climatechangeonhumansociety,beforeaddressingtheactionthatcould betakenbygovernments,byindustryandbyindividualstomitigatethe effects.Thefirsttwoeditionsreceivedexcellentreviews,andthiscom- pletelyupdatedneweditionwillprovetobethebestbriefingthestudent orinterestedgeneralreadercouldwishfor.   .  ,  is a former Chairman of the Scientific Assessment Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Chairman of the UK’s Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, Vice President of the World Meteorological Organization, President of the Royal Meteorological Society, and Professor of Atmospheric Physics at Oxford University. He was Chief ExecutiveoftheUKMeteorologicalOfficefrom1983tohisretirement in1991.Aswellasthepreviouseditionsofthisbook,heisauthorofThe PhysicsofAtmospheres(CambridgeUniversityPress,inthreeeditions), and has published numerous research papers and contributed to many influential research documents. Sir John and his wife Sheila live in Wales. Fromreviewsofpreviouseditions ‘ItisdifficulttoimaginehowHoughton’sexpositionofthiscomplexbodyof informationmightbesubstantiallyimprovedupon...Seldomhassucha complextopicbeenpresentedwithsuchremarkablesimplicity,directnessand crystallineclarity...Houghton’scompletebriefingiswithout doubtthebest briefingtheconcernedcitizencouldhopetofindwithinthepagesofa pocketablebook.’ JohnPerry,BulletinoftheAmericanMeteorologicalSociety ‘Icanrecommend(thisbook)toanyonewhowantstogetabetterperspective onthetopicofglobalwarming...averyreadableandcomprehensiveguideto thechangesthatareoccurringnow,andcouldoccurinthefuture,asaresultof humanaction...bringstheglobalwarmingdebaterightuptodate...Read Houghton’sbookifyoureallywanttounderstandboththescientificand politicalissuesinvolved.’ WilliamHarston,TheIndependent ‘...preciseaccountofthescience,accompaniedbyfigures,graphs,boxeson specificpoints,andsummariesattheendofeachchapter,withquestionsfor students...rangesbeyondthescienceintothediplomacy,politics,economics andethicsoftheproblem,whichtogetherpresentaformidablechallengeto humanunderstandingandcapacityforaction.’ SirCrispinTickell,TheTimesHigherEducationSupplement ‘...awidelypraisedbookonglobalwarminganditsconsequences.’ TheEconomist ‘...aninterestingaccountofthetopicforthegeneralreader.’ EnvironmentalAssessment ‘...verythoroughandpresentsabalanced,impartialpicture.’ JonathanShanklin,JournaloftheBritishAstronomicalAssociation ‘Iwouldthoroughlyrecommendthisbooktoanyoneconcernedaboutglobal warming.Itprovidesanexcellentessentiallynon-technicalguideonscientific andpoliticalaspectsofthesubject.Itisanessentialbriefingforstudentsand scienceteachers.’ TonyWaters,TheObservatory ‘Forthenon-technicalreader,thebestprogramguidetothepoliticaland scientificdebateisJohnHoughton’sbookGlobalWarming:TheComplete Briefing.Withthisbookinhandyouarereadytomakesenseofthedebateand reachyourownconclusions.’ AlanHecht,ClimateChange ‘Thisisaremarkablebook...Itisamodelofclearexpositionand comprehensiblewriting...Quiteapartfromitsvalueasabackgroundreader forscienceteachersandstudents,itwouldmakeasplendidbasisforacollege generalcourse.’ AndrewBishop,AssociationforScienceEducation ‘GlobalWarmingremainsthebestsingle-volumeguidetothescienceof climatechange.’ GregTerrill,TimesLiterarySupplement ‘Thisveryreadableandinformativebookisvaluableforanyonewantinga broadoverviewofwhatweknowaboutclimatechange,itspotentialimpactson societyandthenaturalworld,andwhatcouldbedonetomitigateoradaptto globalwarming.Tothisend,discussionquestionsareincludedattheendof eachchapter.Thepaperbackeditionisespeciallygoodvalue...Houghton’s compactbookisanaccessible,well-researched,andbroadlybasedintroduction totheimmenselycomplicatedglobalwarmingproblem.’ DennisL.Hartmann,DepartmentofAtmosphericSciences,UniversityofWashington, Seattle,USA ‘Ihavenohesitationinendorsingthisimportantbook.’ WilfridBach,InternationalJournalofClimatology ‘...ausefulbookforstudentsandlaymentounderstandsomeofthe complexitiesoftheglobalwarmingissue.Questionsandessaytopicsattheend ofeachchapterprovideusefulfollow-upworkandtherangeofmaterial providedunderonecoverisimpressive.Atastudent-friendlyprice,thisisa booktobuyforyourselfandnotrelyonthelibrarycopy.’ AllenPerry,Holocene ‘InsummaryIwouldthoroughlyrecommendthisbooktoanyoneconcerned aboutglobalwarming.Itprovidesanexcellentnon-technicalguideon scientificandpoliticalaspectsofthesubject.Itisanessentialbriefingfor studentsandscienceteachers.’ TonyWaters,Weather ‘ThisbookisoneofthebestIhaveencountered,thatdealwithclimatechange andsomeofitsanthropogeniccauses.Wellwritten,wellorganised,richly illustratedandreferenced,itshouldberequiredreadingforanybodyconcerned withthefateofourplanet.’ ElmarR.Reiter,MeteorologyandAtmosphericPhysics ‘SirJohnHoughtonisoneofthefewpeoplewhocanlegitimatelyusethe phrase“thecompletebriefing”asasubtitleforabookonglobalwarming...Sir Johnhasdoneusallagreatfavourinpresentingsuchawealthofmaterialso clearlyandaccessiblyandindrawingattentiontotheethicalunderpinningsof ourinterpretationofthisareaofenvironmentalscience.’ ProgressinPhysicalGeography ‘...thiscompletebriefingonglobalwarmingisremarkablyfactualand inclusive.Houghton’sconcernaboutplanetEarthanditspeopleblendswell withthishishopesforglobalcooperationinconcertwiththespiritofthe IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.’ Choice ‘Throughoutthebookthisargumentiswelldevelopedandexplainedinaway thattheaveragereadercouldunderstandespeciallybecausetherearemany diagrams,tables,graphsandmapswhichareeasytointerpret.’ SATYA ‘...thisbookisthemostcomprehensiveguideavailable.Ignoreitatyourperil.’ TheCanadianField-Naturalist Global Warming The Complete Briefing THIRD EDITION Sir John Houghton cambridge university press Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge cb2 2ru, UK Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521528740 © C J. T. Houghton 1994, 1997, 2004 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provision of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published in print format 2004 isbn-13 978-0-511-21276-5eBook (EBL) isbn-10 0-511-21276-3 eBook (EBL) isbn-13 978-0-521-52874-0paperback isbn-10 0-521-52874-7 paperback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of urls for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guaranteethatanycontentonsuchwebsitesis,orwillremain,accurateorappropriate. Tomygrandchildren, Daniel,Hannah,Esther,Max,Jonathan,JemimaandSamand theirgeneration