Edited by Björn Hettne and Bertil Odén Global Governance in the 21st Century: Alternative Perspectives on World Order Björn Hettne Professor Department of Peace and Development Research Göteborg University P.O.Box 700 SE-405 30 Gothenburg,Sweden E-mail:[email protected] Bertil Odén Counsellor Embassy of Sweden P.O.Box 9274 Dar es Salaam,Tanzania E-mail:[email protected] Distributed by: Almkvist & Wiksell International P.O.Box 7634 SE-103 94 Stockholm,Sweden Fax:+46 8 24 25 43 E-mail:[email protected] Edita Norstedts Tryckeri AB 2002 i Table of Contents List of Acronyms and Abbreviations iii Introduction 1 Björn Hettne and Bertil Odén 1. In Search of World Order 6 Björn Hettne 2. The Liberal Globalist Case 26 Indra de Soysa and Nils Petter Gleditsch 3. Reprising Durable Disorder:Network War and the Securitisation of Aid 74 Mark Duffield 4. Reforming the World Order:Multi- and Plurilateral Approaches 106 Raimo Väyrynen 5. The Post-Westphalia Enigma 147 Richard Falk 6. Implications for International Governance and Development Cooperation 184 Bertil Odén Notes on Editors and Contributors 203 iii List of Acronyms and Abbreviations AIDS acquired immune deficiency syndrome APEC Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations CAP Common Agriculture Policy (of the European Union) CEO Chief Executive Officer CO carbon dioxide 2 ECOSOC Economic and Social Council (of the United Nations) ECHO European Commission Humanitarian Office EP European Parliament EMU European Monetary Union EU European Union FDI foreign direct investment G7 Group of seven G8 Group of eight GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GDP gross domestic product GNP gross national product GPA Global Peoples Assembly HIPC Heavily Indebted Poor Countries HIV human immunodeficiency virus ICC International Criminal Court ICEM International Federation of Chemical,Energy and Mine Workers’ Union IGOs inter-governmental organisations IFIs international financial institutions IMF International Monetary Fund IT Information Technology LDCs least developed countries MAI Multilateral Agreement on Investment MERCOSUR Mercade Commún del Sur (Common Market of the South) MDGs Millenium Development Goals MFN most favoured nation MNCs multinational corporations NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement NICs newly industrialised countries NPV net present value NGO non-governmental organisation ODA official development assistance OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PCM Project Cycle Management PPP purchasing power parity iv PRGF Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper SFA Strategic Framework for Afghanistan SSA Sub-Saharan Africa TNC transnational corporation UN United Nations UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNHCR United Nations High Commission for Refugees UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund UNIDO United Nations Industrial Development Organization UNITA National Union for the Total Independence of Angola UNRISD United Nations Research Institute for Social Development WOMP World Order Models Project WTO World Trade Organisation 1 Introduction This is a small book about big issues. It addresses the question of possible frameworks for global governance with particular regard to development and security, which are two converging areas today. The book deals with alternative forms of global governance (or world orders). It discusses ideas ranging from optimistic globalist liberal visions to more pessimistic views to the effect that disorder has become a more or less permanent condition,at least in the so-called South. Development assistance and conflict management are two international activities that necessarily take place within an international politico-juridical framework. Consequently, they are also largely shaped by this same framework. This is a neglected aspect in studies of these two activities. Furthermore this framework,often referred to as “the Westphalia order”,is currently in process of transformation.We are not quite sure into what,and naturally this dilemma does not simplify the relationships involved. This increases the need for a study of the possible governance implications of emerging conflict patterns that are challenging the international system.Our aim is to contribute to the ongoing discussion regarding the interrelationship between conflict and development at global, regional, national and local levels. By systematising emerging tendencies and their interplay between various levels of the global political economy,taking the possible future roles of the nation-state as the point of departure,an inventory of various options or “world order scenarios”has been attempted In the first chapter, by Björn Hettne, the future world order alternatives are spelt out in general terms with reference to earlier discourses on the fundamentals of international order and possible futures. We think it is meaningful to relate the art of political forecasting today to the methodology explored through earlier efforts in this difficult genre, and hope that this discussion will provide a relevant framework for the various contributions to this book. The first strand identified is based on a strong belief in the virtues of globalism, where most decisions regarding resource allocation can be successfully left to the market and the role of the nation-state is consequently reduced.This vision is designated the liberal globalist case.The second strand focuses on the vicious side of the globalisation process, also with reduced influence for the nation-state.This scenario is called durable disorder.The third strand describes how the international community,based on existing nation-states or a reformed nation-states system,should meet the globalising factors. There are two possibilities: one is called assertive multilateralism, relating to a UN focused order:the other is plurilateralism, based on a great power concert,for instance G8 or NATO.The fourth and final strand is based on increased influence on international governance for civil society within a framework of a global “normative architecture”.As part 2 of this strand a move from national to regional governance can be envisaged. This scenario is called global cosmopolitanismcombined with new regionalism. In the next four chapters,which make up the bulk of the book,some of the trends identified are further explored by internationally well known authors, chosen for their expertise on the various dimensions of the alternative world orders discussed.They have not been asked to produce a rigid elaboration of exactly those forms of governance presented in chapter one,which would have been a rather artificial exercise,but rather to further pursue their own lines of reasoning from their previous work. In chapter two, Indra de Soysa and Nils Petter Gleditsch, while not adhering to the hard globalist view that markets really can operate in a political vacuum, explore a link between globalisation and the growth of beneficent political institutions.Thus,they take their point of departure in the controversial phenomenon of globalisation that has such a surprising capacity for arousing diverging opinions.They stress the fact that the current debate is not very dissimilar to the old debate on modernisation vs. dependency,where the latter position blamed trade and foreign investment for making the poor countries poorer, whereas the former position considered underdevelopment was the result of bad governance and dirigiste practices.The authors build a case for the argument that increases in trade and investment will enhance the prospects for democracy and peace by strengthening interdependence among nations in a liberal world order. In chapter three, Mark Duffield critically discusses the more pessimistic scenario,called “durable disorder”in chapter one,but does not define this as a permanent retrograde crisis.The new conflicts are seen less as temporary crises, more as distinct economic and political projects. To Duffield, the paradox of globalisation is that deregulation and liberalisation also create the conditions for autonomy and resistance in the “peripheries”.The new wars are not forms of social regression but signs of actual development. In the emerging new political economy, the warring parties forge autonomous local-global networks as a means of marketing local resources and securing essential supplies.In the mainstream discourse,the new wars are interpreted as resulting from lack of development, which leads to a merger of development and security concerns for the purpose of conflict prevention, conflict resolution, and social reconstruction. The emerging forms of governance build on public-private networks of international assistance, convergence of development and security,and increasing coherence between various ministerial departments dealing with these issues.However,there are marked limits to international authority and governance in the “borderlands” in this new situation;hence the durability of disorder. In chapter four, Raimo Väyrynen analyses opportunities to reform the international order either by means of assertive multilateralism or various plurilateral approaches,by which he means a multitude of actors other than states.The Asian financial crisis of 1997 was a wake-up call,underlining the 3 need to strengthen global governance,if globalisation was to have a future. At present, a new consensus has emerged among governments, non- governmental organisations and international finance institutions, that the alleviation of poverty is a precondition for the creation of a more viable world order, globalisation with a human face. Even the transnational companies are in need of new ways to legitimise their behaviour.One lesson learnt from what happened to the Multilateral Agreement on Investment (MAI) as well as from subsequent anti-globalisation rallies may be that global rules for capitalism require that social, cultural and environmental standards are acceptable. In chapter five, Falk gives his outline of what may be called a post- Westphalia model by looking at two trends: the normative trend toward cosmopolitan democracy and the economic and political trend toward a new regionalism, both representing a positive conception of a preferred future. Cosmopolitan democracy emphasises the importance of extending demo- cratic notions of participation,accountability,transparency,rule of law,and social justice to all arenas of human interaction. The prospects for such “humane global governance” are crucially dependent on grassroots and transnational activism defining the reality of global civil society. It is the global civil society project.By contrast,regional initiatives reflect efforts by elites throughout the world to participate more effectively in the world economy.Such regionalism also expresses a sense of cultural,religious,and geographic affinity,representing erosion of allegiance to the sovereign state and a rise in regional civilisational identity.The stress on regional political community is also based on the assumption that the UN system, here designated assertive multilateralism, is not likely to be the core of a move toward humane global governance. It should be noted that the authors include some of the existing economic and social trends when drawing their logical conclusion. This means that they deliberately argue in favour of a clear-cut version of each scenario, without elaborate discussion of the counter-arguments.The scenarios should thus not be mistaken as projections. The point is that by refining some trends,their possible effects become clearer.Applying this method,the study hopes to contribute to further discussion of the balance between various globalisation forces and their implications for international governance.It is clear that the policies and means by which global challenges in the areas of security and development will be handled, depend on how the global framework for governance develops in the next few years. The great shock of September 11 happened as this book was being finalised,and it is legitimate to ask what impact it will have on the various forms of governance,or world orders,discussed in the book.The event and the counteractions that followed have been described as “the first war of the 21st century”.They have also been referred to as a “war against terrorism”, waged by an international coalition under the leadership of the USA.This 4 can in fact be seen as an instance of global governance, but what kind of world order is it an expression of? Even if the concept of war can be questioned, it is relevant in the sense that a war normally concentrates decision-making powers, silences opposition, and focuses on one particular aim and one particular option;hence other options are excluded for the time being. Furthermore, a war strengthens the state as well as its military arm and consequently weakens the subtler inter-state arrangements,not to mention more elaborate post-Westphalia forms of governance,such as a norms-based humane global governance.Thus,if a norms-based world order takes a long time to emerge, as Falk suggests, the current development is no improve- ment.Instead,the “unipolar movement”gains momentum. Thus, in view of the state-strengthening influence of war, we should perhaps expect neo-Westphalia forms, such as assertive multilateralism, to crystallise. The question can be raised, as to whether the international coalition against terrorism can be transformed into a solid institutionalised regime based on generally accepted principles, or if this turns out to be unilateralism (or perhaps,in consideration of the Anglo-Saxon brotherhood, bilateralism) in disguise. To the extent that the enemy can be dismissed as a sect with little popular support,the outcome of the first phase of the war may be seen as “the end of history”rather than “the clash of civilisations”,thus showing the strength of the liberal, globalist case of beneficent globalisation. To the extent that future developments may be seen as a new and coercive phase in metropolitan rule over the margins,we should rather speak of a more serious and violent stage of “durable disorder”.Thus,the events of September 11 will be interpreted differently within different paradigms, at least until the consequences are more evident than they are when this book goes to the printer. In the final chapter,Bertil Odén discusses what common features can be traced in the four alternative forms of global governance,and what tentative conclusions may be drawn regarding the role of development cooperation within their framework.It is obvious that any conclusions,based on the type of tentative trends that form the content of the four chapters,are venturous. Yet,a few remarks may be made. The authors agree that the state will not vanish or disintegrate.However, they also agree that the role of the state will change and the scope for governance at the nation-state level will change substantially.Whether the forces of change will be strong enough to transform the world order into something that could best be labelled post-Westphalia or whether neo- Westphalia is a more appropriate label is uncertain,particularly in the light of recent events. It seems the authors in this volume also share the opinion that the impact of homogeneous and territorial authorities will be reduced,while the impact
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