Global Finance (July/August 2005)

72 Pages·2005·4.286 MB·English

ALL CHANGE: TURKEY ASEAN NATIONS FIRMS WAKE UP TO
RECONSIDERS ITS BALANCE COMPETITION BENEFITS OF TAILOR-
OPTIONS AND COOPERATION MADE SOFTWARE
PAGE 22 PAGE 28 PAGE 48
S U R V E Y : T H E W O R L D ’ S B E S T S U B - C U S T O D I A N S
JULY/AUGUST 2005
The turmoil at the
heart of the EU
raises questions for
companies doing
business in Europe
EEUURROOPPEE
OONN TTHHEE BBRRIINNKK
PAGE 12

DEAR READER
JULY/AUGUST 2005 | VOL.19 NO.7
Continental Drift
A
s continental Europeans head to the coasts for their long
AROEPLCLT OICOSNHNSUASINDRGEVREE:S TYIUT:SRKTPEAHGYE E22 WABAOASNELDRAA CLNNODCNOE’AP SCTEOIROMBANTPESIEO STNITT PIAOGSEN 2U8BFBM-IECARNDMUEESSF SIWTTOSAOF KTODEWFI AUATRPANE ITLSOOPARGE- 48 summer holidays,they will travel through a Europe in
EDITOR IN CHIEF AND CHAIRMAN: PAOLO PANERAI
turmoil,a Europe that is struggling to remain competitive
JULY/AUGUST 2005
PUBLISHER AND PRESIDENT:JOSEPH D. GIARRAPUTO
in a global market,a community that is questioning the very
Thehaer ttu orfm tohiel aEtU the principles on which it was founded.Many of the difficulties the
raises questions for
cboumsipnaenssie isn dEouinrogp e continent is facing have existed for some time,but the euro’s EDITOR:DAN KEELER
EUROPE EDITOR/LONDON:ANITA HAWSER
dramatic recent slide against the dollar has rattled both investors
CONTRIBUTING WRITERS:
and corporations and has brought into sharper focus other,more GORDON W. PLATT, JR., PAULA L. GREEN, MARK LEHANE,
EEUURROOPPEE
LAURENCE NEVILLE, DENISE BEDELL, KEITH LOVEARD,
OONN TTHHEE BBRRIINNKK structural problems with which the European Union is wrestling. JOACHIM BAMRUD, AARON CHAZE, THOMAS CLOUSE,
PAGE 12 There is no doubt Europe is facing some immense challenges. ANTONIO GUERRERO, KIM ISKYAN
Italy is already in a technical recession,Germany and France are PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT (MILAN):GIULIANO CASTAGNETO
both foundering,and the proposed EU constitution lies in ruins,
ART DIRECTION:ER CREATIVITY/ENRICO REDAELLI,
despite Luxembourg’s belated attempt to resuscitate it.The CLARA CIOCCHINI
persistent malaise is encouraging the continent’s perennial COPY EDITOR: TINA ARIDAS
malcontents,who are becoming increasingly vocal in their
condemnation of last year’s enlargement that saw 10 nations join VICE PRESIDENTS, SALES:SEBASTIAN CAZEIRO,
LEWIS GALATI, PETER RIORDAN, THOMAS GEORGIADES,
the union in a flurry of optimism and comradely bonhomie.
GRAEME McQUEEN, SALES DIRECTOR, EUROPE AND ASIA,
The gloomiest pundits are predicting a rapid meltdown,with the RICHARD SCHOLTZ, SALES MANAGER, EUROPE
single currency disintegrating as one nation after another frees itself MKT’G COORD, SPECIAL PROJECTS/EVENTS:
NATASHA TRAJKOVA
from the straitjacket of the euro and reclaims its old currency—and
PUBLISHING ASSOCIATE:
the freedom to manage its own monetary policy.But,as we find
LAURA GALLETTI
out in this month’s cover story,Europe’s single currency is far from
MANAGING DIRECTOR, OPERATIONS:
down for the count.In fact,as the dollar rose sharply in early July, CHRISTOPHER GIARRAPUTO
it appears some Asian central banks took the opportunity to snap ACCOUNTING MANAGER:YAWO GBEGNEDJI
up some cheap euros,continuing their shrewd policy of balancing ADVERTISING OFFICES
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Not only is the single currency likely to claw its way back Agency. China: Mary Yao, Media Gateway International Ltd. Germany: Erhardt
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growth.Labor reform is progressing,albeit slowly,in Germany and
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France (see page 17),which will help them improve their Romero Goytortua. Pakistan:Imran Ahmad, Pace. Russia/CIS Baltic States:
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and energy to the EU that will fuel further growth in the years to GLOBAL FINANCE MEDIA INC
CHAIRMAN: P. PANERAI
come.With continued commitment and determination,the state of VICE CHAIRMAN:A. BASODAN
the union can only get better. DIRECTORS:G. CAPOLINO, J. GIARRAPUTO,
A.MATTEI, I. MAJEED, V. TERRENGHI
Until next month. SECRETARY:L. PANERAI
FOUNDING EDITOR:CARLG.BURGEN
July 2005, Volume 19, Number 7. Global Finance (ISSN 0896-4181/USPS 006-578) is
published monthly except a combined July/August issue in July by Global Finance
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2005 JULY/AUGUST 1
CONTENTS
JULY/AUGUST 2005 | VOL.19 NO.7
COVER STORY COVER STORY
REGULARS
BY MARK LEHANE
12 Europe on the Edge
The euro’s troubles have brought
1 Dear Reader
the problems of the European
A letter from the editor.
Union into focus.
4 Newsmakers
FEATURES REGIONAL REPORT: New Securities and Exchange Commission
17 Regional Report: EUROPE head expected to take softer stance;
BY ANITA HAWSER
Enrique V. Iglesias cuts short his tenure at
European Labor Reforms
the IADB; UStreasury secretary Snow
Countries that have failed to reform contends with Chinese bid for California
their labor markets will soon have oil company Unocal; and the Middle East
to bite the bullet. announces plans for its first energy
REGIONAL REPORT: futures exchange in Dubai.
20 Regional Report: EUROPEAN DEBT
BY LAURENCE NEVILLE
European Debt Markets 6 Milestones
Citigroup swaps its asset management
European companies are trapped in
business for the broker-dealer operations
the fallout from downgrades of
of LeggMason; rising oil prices hit Asian
General Motors and Ford. currencies hard; debt relief is the subject
COUNTRY REPORT: of “Four Weddings” screenwriter’s latest
22 Country Report: Turkey TURKEY venture ; and the UK leads growth in M&A
Turkey’s EU aspirations are BY PAULA L. GREEN activity.
faltering as the EU reconsiders its
future. 8 Emerging Markets Roundup
The latest news from China, India, Russia
28 Regional Focus: ASEAN and Brazil.
REGIONAL FOCUS:
SE Asia’s regional trade alliance
ASEAN
10 EM Investor
targets intra-regional cooperation. BY ANITA HAWSER
Key information for investors in emerging
32 Market Focus: markets.
Brazilian ADRs
60 Foreign Exchange
Strong liquidity in the US is
The European Monetary Union is not about
helping the ADRs of Brazilian COUNTRY REPORT:
to fall apart, despite the “no” votes in
MALAYSIA
companies perform well. BY KEITH LOVEARD France and the Netherlands on the EU
constitution, analysts say.
40 Country Report: Malaysia
Malaysia is ready for the next stage 65 Corporate Debt
in its development. US companies may repatriate billions of
dollars of foreign earnings to pay down
FINANCIAL SOFTWARE
48 Made-to-measure BY DENISE BEDELL their outstanding debt under a new law.
Finance Solutions
66 Global Equity/DRs
A custom-built finance solution is a
IPOs by China’s largest coal producer and
real alternative to buying out of the
its fifth-largest bank are the first of a slew
box.
of public offerings by Chinese companies
AWARDS scheduled for later this year.
51 The World’s Best
WORLD’S BEST
Sub-custodians SUB-CUSTODIANS 67 Mergers & Acquisitions
Global Finance selects the winners in Bank Austria Creditanstalt will become the
an area of finance that is critical to leading bank in Central and Eastern
global investing. Europe after Italy-based UniCredito buys
HVB, Germany’s second-largest bank.
2 JULY/AUGUST 2005

G
NEWSMAKERS GLOBAL F FINANCE
AROUND THE WORLD
UNITED STATES
LATIN AMERICA
PROPOSED SEC HEAD IGLESIAS' EARLY DEPARTURE
EXPECTED TO TAKE A PROMPTS RACE FOR SUCCESSOR
GENTLER APPROACH
Enrique V. Iglesias,
Judging by his past has received more than
president of the In-
actions,Christopher $254,000 in financial support
ter-American Devel-
Cox,the pro-business from securities firms during
opment Bank
California Republican his 16 years in Congress.He
(IADB), has decided
nominated by President Bush also opposed a move to treat to cut short his cur-
to head the Securities and stock options as an expense, rent five-year term
Exchange Commission,is pleasing his technology-firm in order to hand
likely to steer the agency constituents in California’s over control to "new
away from the activist path wealthy Orange County,or hands." Iglesias, 74,
followed by former chairman OC,as it is known in the has been at the mul-
tilateral bank's helm
William H.Donaldson,who Fox network TV show.
for 17 years and
resigned on June 30. Cox,a graduate of Harvard
leaves his successor
If confirmed by the Senate, Law School and Harvard
with some rather
Cox is likely to ease up on Business School,was a senior
large shoes to fill.
the crackdown on corporate associate White House IIgglleessiiaass::SStteeppppiinngg ddoowwnn
Elected to the
fraud led by his predecessor counsel in the Reagan bank's presidency in
in the wake of the Enron and administration.While he has 1988, as Latin America was emerging from its "lost decade" of
other financial scandals.The pledged to follow clear and runaway debt and inflation, Iglesias was re-elected in 1993,
agency already has tempered consistently enforced rules at 1998 and 2003. His latest term was slated to run through
its stance in recent months in the SEC,he is widely 2008. Under his watch the IADB's capital was raised from
reaction to a corporate expected to take a more $26.5 billion to $101 billion, while the investment grade-rated
bank became a frequent issuer on international debt markets.
backlash over the costs of business-friendly approach.
"It would be difficult to overstate the contribution that En-
complying with the He could back away from
rique has made to the Inter-American Development Bank and
Sarbanes-Oxley Act. regulation of hedge funds,for
to economic development in Latin American and Caribbean
Cox,a former securities example.
nations over the last 18 years," said US treasury secretary
attorney who wrote Wall Street observers are
John Snow in response to Iglesias' decision to step down on
legislation curbing curious to know whether he September 30.
shareholder lawsuits in 1995, will keep Linda Chatman Before joining the IADB—the world's oldest and largest re-
Thomsen on as gional development bank—Iglesias was president of Uruguay's
director of central bank and the country's foreign minister. He was also
enforcement.She was executive secretary of the United Nations Commission for
appointed on May 12 Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and chairman of the
conference that spawned the Uruguay Round of international
and was expected to be
trade negotiations. He will now become the first secretary
an aggressive enforcer.
general of the Ibero-American Summit.
Observers also will be
Iglesias is only the third IADB president since it was found-
watching to see if Cox
ed in 1959. So far, there is talk that, because the US is the
will reconsider the new
bank's largest shareholder, with 30% of the voting power, and
“trade through”rule hosts the IADB headquarters in Washington, the next presi-
requiring brokers to dent could be a Washington insider. By late June only Brazil-
accept the best price ian central bank governor João Sayad and his Nicaraguan
for a trade even if stock counterpart, Luis Alberto Moreno, were official candidates,
markets must fill the though others were expected to emerge.
order through a Member nations have until July 16 to submit nominations,
with elections set for July 27. —Antonio Guerrero
competitor.
CCooxx::BBuussiinneessss--ffrriieennddllyy
—Gordon Platt
4 JULY/AUGUST 2005
G
NEWSMAKERS GLOBAL F FINANCE
AROUND THE WORLD
UNITED STATES
SNOW FINDS HIMSELF IN ANOTHER
TIGHT SPOT REGARDING CHINA
When it comes to being in the China “hot seat,”US treasury secre- the United States,or CFIUS,which is being urged by many law-
tary John Snow is an old hand.He has been pressuring China for makers to scrutinize the CNOOC bid to make sure that it doesn’t
the past few years to revalue its currency,while trying to head off threaten national security.Congressional critics argue that energy is
protectionist actions against Chinese goods by the US Congress. a strategic resource and that Unocal’s seismic technology could be
Now he has another red-hot issue easily converted to military purposes.
to contend with:the $18.5 billion Meanwhile,CFIUS also is charged with maintaining the cred-
bid by Chinese oil company ibility of the US open-investment policy and preserving the con-
CNOOC to acquire California- fidence of foreign investors in the US.The committee also seeks
based Unocal,the ninth-largest US to assure that US investors abroad are not subject to retaliatory
oil company,which has a majority discrimination.
of its oil and gas reserves in Asia. Earlier this year,CFIUS approved the purchase by China’s Leno-
The cash bid,largely backed by vo Group of IBM’s personal-computer business,despite Congres-
loans from CNOOC’s state-owned sional concerns that China one day could corner the PC market.As
parent, represents a premium of Global Financewent to press,Snow said it was too early to start a re-
about 10% to US oil company view of CNOOC’s bid for Unocal,but the White House promised
Chevron’s $16.4 billion cash-and- an appropriate national and economic security review if the Chinese
stock offer. firm is the winning bidder.
Snow is chairman of the Com- For its part,China says the offer should be considered as a normal
Snow:Watching CNOOC
mittee on Foreign Investments in business deal without political interference. —GP
MIDDLE EAST/UNITED STATES
MIDDLE EAST LOOKS TO ENERGY FUTURES
The Middle East has taken formative steps toward the establish- Holding, said its priority now
ment of the region’s first energy futures exchange with the an- was to build on the agreement
nouncement of a joint venture between Dubai Holding and the with NYMEX by developing “a
New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) estimated to be worth platform for managing risk
$10 million. which reflects the increased
Commenting on NYMEX’s first overseas joint venture, Mitchell financial sophistication of the
Steinhause, NYMEX chairman, said that the new Dubai Mercantile region’s capital markets.” He
Exchange (DME) would help bridge the time-zone gap between said DME would build on
trading in Europe and Asia by creating energy futures products Dubai’s reputation as a major
that addressed the growing needs of the regional market. “The financial and trading hub.
contracts traded on DME will be tailored to the needs of the mar- In a separate development,
ketplace and may include physical delivery alternatives that rep- the Dubai International Finan-
resent the physical trade flows,” commented James Newsome, cial Exchange, which aims to
president of NYMEX. become the main exchange
Dubai Holding will reportedly make the bulk of the cash invest- between Western Europe and
ment required to establish the DME, while NYMEX’s expertise in East Asia targeting issuers in NYMEX’s Steinhause
compliance, marketing, research and IT will underpin the develop- the UAE, Gulf Cooperation
ment of the new exchange’s trading platform. Trades executed on Council states and the Middle East, as well as Africa, Turkey and
the DME, which is expected to open for business early next year, will Central Asia, is scheduled to commence operations on September
also be cleared through NYMEX’s clearinghouse in New York. 26. Gergawi said that Dubai had played an integral role in trading
The DME’s platform is intended to provide price transparency for commodities and that the DME “would serve the greater need of
sour crude and fuel oil trades. Mohammed Al Gergawi, CEO of Dubai the Middle East energy markets.” —Anita Hawser
2005 JULY/AUGUST 5
G
MILESTONES GLOBAL F FINANCE
TAKING NOTE
ASIA
UNITED STATES
ASIAN CURRENCIES CITIGROUP-LEGG MASON DEAL
TUMBLE AS RISING SENDS MESSAGE TO WALL STREET
OIL PRICES HIT THE
The time was, not so
REGION HARD
many years ago,
when the stock mar-
ket was soaring,
Call it the non-petro relatively buoyant US
that every invest-
currency.The Japanese economy.US consumer
ment bank had to
yen fell to an 8.5-month confidence hit a three-year
own a money man-
low against the dollar in late high in June,suggesting that
ager in order to be a
June,as oil prices rose above spending will remain strong.
true financial super-
$60 a barrel.Other Asian With a revaluation of the market.
currencies,such as the South Chinese currency expected Apparently, times
Korean won and the Taiwan later this year,the slump in are changing. On
dollar,also suffered declines Asian currencies may not last June 24 Citigroup
on worries about the region’s for long,however.Hiroshi agreed to a $3.7 bil-
vulnerability to ever-more- Watanabe,Japanese vice lion deal under
which it will swap
expensive overseas oil. finance minister in charge of
the bulk of its asset-
While the fall in the yen international relations,said in
management busi-
and the other Asian late June that the yen could
n ess fo r t h e
currencies is good news for rise on speculation following broker-dealer oper- CCiittiiggrroouupp’’ss CChhaarrlleess PPrriinnccee
the region’s exporters,since a change in China’s exchange
ations of Baltimore,
they will gain a competitive rate.Watanabe said the Maryland-based Legg Mason.
edge,the jump in oil prices revaluation of the yuan Citigroup also will receive $1.5 billion of Legg Mason
raised concern about a should not be too small, stock, while the Baltimore firm will borrow $550 million for
potential slowdown in global since that could lead to five years from Citigroup’s corporate and investment bank.
demand. speculation on the need for a Citigroup kept its asset-management business in Mexico
Record prices for crude follow-up move even higher and its retirement-services business in Latin America, as
well as its interest in CitiStreet, a global benefits provider
oil could also dampen the in the exchange rate.
that is a joint venture with State Street.
fragile Japanese economy, —Gordon Platt
The asset swap will put Citigroup in a neck-and-neck race
since the country imports
with Merrill Lynch as the leading US broker. Citigroup will
almost all of its oil.The
also post an after-tax gain of about $1.6 billion when the
Tokyo Stock Exchange
deal closes. The New York-based bank will continue offering
clung to a gain of only asset-management products under a three-year global
0.5% in the year-to-date agreement with Legg Mason.
as of late June.The Legg Mason—which in a separate transaction also ac-
Japanese economy quired Permal Group, one of the largest funds-of-hedge-
continues to struggle funds managers—will emerge as a leading global money
following last year’s manager, with $830 billion in assets under management.
In a candid comment to analysts, Citigroup CEO Charles
recession,and the
Prince said, “Our performance in asset management is not
country’s trade surplus
what we had hoped for it to be.” He suggested that the re-
shows signs of weakening.
sources would be better directed elsewhere. What’s more
Analysts say the fall in
important, the swap enabled both firms to extricate them-
the Asian currencies has
selves from the conflicts of interest that are unavoidable
been amplified by the when the same company offers investment advice and sells
general rising trend of the its own funds. Other Wall Street firms are expected to get
dollar.The greenback has the message. “I think this will be widely perceived on the
been supported by higher Street over time,” Prince said. —GP
Japan’s Hiroshi Watanabe
US interest rates and a
6 JULY/AUGUST 2005
G
MILESTONES GLOBAL F FINANCE
TAKING NOTE
UNITED KINGDOM
FOUR WEDDINGS SCREENWRITER LENDS A
ROMANTIC INTERPRETATION TO DEBT RELIEF
First it was Bono,singer of the rock band placed high on the summit agenda,and in
U2,and other musicians and activists who early June the G-8 finance ministers finally
pushed political and economic leaders of the hammered out an accord to write off $40
industrial nations to forgive the debt of the billion in debt for the world’s poorest na-
world’s poorest nations. tions.Late in June the United Nations held
Now it’s Hollywood’s turn.HBO Films a two-day meeting of finance and develop-
and BBC Productions have co-produced a ment ministers and financial institutions to
film,“The Girl in the Café,”that has the find ways to push the debt relief program
Herculean task of turning world poverty and forward and finance the work of the Mil-
the political choices global leaders face at the lennium Development Goals,or MDGs.
July G-8 Summit in Scotland into an artistic The MDGs are a central theme of Curtis’s
endeavor that people will watch. film,which traces the journey of a lonely
Bono with Tony Blair
The romantic comedy by screenwriter English bureaucrat working for the British
Richard Curtis,who also wrote the success- finance ministry and a mysterious woman he
ful films “Four Weddings and a Funeral,”“Notting Hill”and “Brid- meets in a café on Downing Street.They go to a G-8 conference in
get Jones’Diary,”builds on the momentum of debt cancellation that Reykjavik,Iceland,and the romance plays out as the British nego-
has been gaining in circles from London to New York to Hollywood tiating team pushes an agenda to meet the MDGs and greatly de-
over the past several years. crease poverty by 2015.It might not make for great cinema,but if
British Prime Minister Tony Blair,the current chairman of the life really does imitate art,the stage will be set for a breakthrough in
G-8 group, has aggressively pushed for debt cancellation to be debt relief. —Paula L.Green
GLOBAL
WESTERN EUROPE STREAKS PAST US IN M&A ACTIVITY
To the casual observer it might look as though M&A activity glob- of Ford and GM in March—has played a major role
ally during the firsthalf of 2005 was less than inspiring. Activity did in the growth of M&A activity. “The volatility that
increase when compared with the same period last year, but growth we have seen in recent months has only affected
was modest. A closer look, however, reveals hotspots such as the UK fringe players,” explains Collins. “Private equity
market, which grew 40%, and important developments such as houses still have access to huge sums for invest-
Western Europe overtaking the US by deal value and volume. ment, and for corporates the bank lending mar-
Consultancy KPMG’s corporate finance division estimates that ket is as attractive as it has ever been. Banks are
globally at the end of the first half $771 billion of deals and 12,400 extremely liquid and have to invest that money
deal closures will have been completed — a 14% increase on both the somewhere.”
value and the volume of deals closed in the first half of 2004, based At first glance some of the areas of greatest
on figures from investment banking information provider Dealogic. growth seem counterintuitive: UK real estate is a
“There is a feeling that hope is coming back to the market,” says sector many consider overvalued while Western
SSiimmoonn CCoolllliinnss
Simon Collins, CEO of KPMG’s UK corporate finance team. “In the Europe and Japan are widely perceived to be eco-
UK and Western Europe there is a good story unfolding, and, of nomically stagnant. But, as Collins explains, M&A is not necessarily
course, activity in Asia-Pacific is rampant. On the downside, activity driven by boom times. “The role of M&A in restructuring is just as
in the US market appears to be dwindling.” Collins notes that one important as it is during buoyant economic conditions,” he says.
global trend is the increase in the number of large deals. “The mar- “CEOs don’t necessarily need strong economic conditions or even
ket is now largely driven by a handful of mega-deals,” he says. strong financial markets to do deals, although it helps. What they re-
The continued strength of the debt and equity capital mar- ally need is confidence, and what we are seeing now are cautious
kets—despite the spate of volatility resulting from the downgrade forays into M&A and growing confidence.” —Laurence Neville
2005 JULY/AUGUST 7