Global Cement - Cement industry in EM turmoil

167 Pages·2015·4.21 MB·English

Global Building Materials
September 2015
Global Cement
Cement industry in EM turmoil
Our analysis of global cement markets points to record low 70% EM capacity
utilisation, a long way from the level required to turn more positive on
profitability, and the outlook for volume recovery is uncertain at best
Lafarge’s merger with Holcim is no panacea and in our view generates little
incremental pricing power to offset EM exposure. We reiterate our Reduce
rating on LafargeHolcim (target price cut to CHF42 from CHF66)
Sector exposure should be skewed to the US and selectively Europe
and this can be achieved through Cemex (target price USD10.15) and
HeidelbergCement (target price EUR81 from EUR91, EUR73 valuation with
Italcementi). We see downside in our Indian and Indonesian coverage
By John Fraser-Andrews, Jigar Mistry, Wei Sim, Shishir Kumar Singh,
Patrick Gaffney and Jonathan Brandt
Disclosures and Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and analyst
certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it
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Global Building Materials
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September 2015

Contents

Investment summary 2

Thematic analysis 11

Regional analysis 43

Europe 44
North America 51
China 57
India 64
South-east Asia 71
MENAT 81
LatAm 91
Company profiles 99

Disclosure appendix 161

Disclaimer 164

We would like to acknowledge the contribution of
Bangalore Associates Brijesh Kumar Siya, Ishan Jain and
Shubhi Bansal to this report.
THIS CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA
(THE "PRC") (EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF HONG KONG AND MACAO)
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September 2015
Investment summary
We remain cautious on trading prospects in emerging markets (EM)
and believe that it is too early to invest for a rebound in share prices.
We re-iterate our Reduce rating on industry leader LafargeHolcim
(TP CHF42 from CHF66), our India coverage (ACC, Ambuja and
Ultratech), Indocement and Holcim in Indonesia (two of three
Indonesian stocks under coverage). We prefer developed markets at
present, particularly US-exposed global majors, with a small Buy list
headed by Cemex (TP USD10.15) and HeidelbergCement
(TP EUR81 from EUR91).

Cement stocks weighed down by EM turmoil
This report is a bottom-up review of the global cement industry, drawing on the insights and forecasts of six
analysts covering twenty-seven cement producers including the global majors (Europe listed and Cemex),
and mostly single-country producers in India, China, Indonesia, Thailand, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
Although the share prices of LafargeHolcim and our emerging country cement coverage have fallen by an
average 20% from their respective 2015 highs, we believe it is too early, for the most part, to invest for a
rebound and we explain why in this report.
We prefer exposure to the US and Europe. Here we flag Cemex (Buy, TP USD10.15), which should also
benefit from a recovering Mexico heartland; HeidelbergCement (Buy, TP EUR81 from EUR91) and
Buzzi (Buy, TP EUR17.5 from EUR16.9), which are both significantly weighted to the US.
Continued margin squeeze and depressed return on capital outlook
We expect real cement prices in EM to continue to fall through our 2017 forecast horizon, eroding gross
margins further and leading to Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) at depressed levels for the global
majors (Italcementi and LafargeHolcim at the bottom of a 2017 4.4% to 8.8% range) and our China, India
and Indonesia coverage.
Our analysis is based on the following key assumptions:
 Our country-by-country review of global capacity combined with our expectations of weak volume
growth in EM at a 2015-17e CAGR of 2.5% (excl. China, India and Eastern Europe) mean that
capacity utilisation sinks to a record low 69% in 2015e, rising to only 70% by 2017e, substantially
below the 85-90% trend level of price and cost inflation equilibrium (Exhibit 1).
 Our in-depth analysis of key cement trading routes which show the vulnerability of cement prices in
West Africa and France (combined 5% LafargeHolcim cement capacity) to imports/internal expansion,
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September 2015
although we conclude that China lacks the trading infrastructure to destabilise prices on a widespread
basis in the event of a “hard landing”. Furthermore, we conclude from our country-by-country analysis
of cement producer concentration, that the mergers of Lafarge/Holcim and
HeidelbergCement/Italcementi will have negligible impact on industry pricing power.
 On the costs front, our analysis shows that the tailwind of lower international energy prices is
mitigated in EM by lower subsidies and FX devaluation increasing US-dollar denominated costs.
Exhibit 1: Emerging market (ex-China) volume growth to Exhibit 2: Significant cut to our EM ex-China, India and East
remain below capacity growth until 2016e Europe volume forecasts
12% 100%
6%
10% 90%
5%
8% 80%
4%
6% 70%
3%
4% 60%
2%
2% 50%
0% 40% 1%
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 5e 6e 7e
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0%
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 2 2015e 2016e
Volume growth LHS Capacity growth LHS
Capacity utilisation RHS Trend utilisation RHS 26-Sep-14 22-Jan-15 Current
Source: Global Cement Report (11th Edition), International Cement Review,
Company data, HSBC estimates Source: HSBC estimates

Significant cuts to our sales and EBITDA estimates
We cut our EM excl. China, India and Eastern Europe volume growth forecast in 2015 to 1.1% (3.5% on
22 January 2015, Weak foundations neuter energy boost, Exhibit 2) and forecast only a tepid pick-up in
2016 and 2017 to 2.5% and 3.9% growth respectively. Although we forecast pick-ups from government
infrastructure action plans in India, Indonesia and Mexico in 2015-16, we are forecasting further volume
falls in 2016 in Brazil, Russia and Malaysia.
Weak volumes in emerging countries have slowed price growth in composite to just above zero (0.5%) in
our 2015 forecast, rising to only 1.9% in 2016 and significantly lower than our forecasts on
22 January 2015 at 1.6% and 2.9% respectively.
As a result of the weakness of EM cement markets, our 2015 EBITDA forecasts for our Chinese, Indonesian
and Indian coverage are respectively nearly 30%, 25% and 15% lower than one year ago (Exhibit 4), published
in separate reports over that time period. In this report, we cut our EBITDA forecasts through to 2017 for the
Indian companies by 4-8% and the European listed global majors by generally less than 5%. The exceptions
are CRH and Buzzi, where we increase EBITDA by c2-5%, whilst for recently merged and nearly 60% EM
exposed LafargeHolcim, we cut EBITDA forecasts by 6-18% through to 2017.
More optimistic in the US and Europe
The European listed global majors and Cemex should generally benefit from their exposure to continued
robust recovery in the US and a modest pick-up in demand in Europe and Canada. We expect a gradual
recovery in European cement markets as construction data and lead indicators show that more countries
are recovering and should reach a trough in output in 2014-15. This specifically benefits Cemex’s and
HeidelbergCement’s heavy exposures to the US and the UK.
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Exhibit 3: HSBC global cement coverage versus MSCI World Index
250
220
190
160
130
100
70
2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5
Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1
Global maj. Turkey Saudi Arabia China India
Indonesia Thailand LatAm HSBC Cement MSCI World

Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters Datastream

Consequently, our EBITDA forecasts are within 5% of Bloomberg consensus through 2017 in all
territories except for India (in 2017), Turkey (in 2016-17) , LafargeHolcim (where we are 6-7% below),
and up to 25% lower for Indonesia.
Exhibit 4: Current EBITDA estimates versus a year ago – Exhibit 5: …and we are below consensus across the
cuts across the board with the exception of Turkey… globe (EBITDA)
15% 5%
10%
0%
5%
0% -5%
-5% -10%
-10%
-15% -15%
-20% -20%
-25%
-25%
-30%
2015e 2016e 2017e
-35% -30%
Global maj. Turkey2015e audi Arabia China 2India016e Indonesia Thailand Global maj. Turkey audi Arabia China India Indonesia Thailand
S S
Source: HSBC estimates Source: Bloomberg, HSBC estimates

Cautious on EM stocks, prefer DM exposure
We remain cautious, with only a handful of Buys in EM despite share price falls
We are mostly cautious in EM, with Reduce ratings on all of the three Indian companies under coverage:
ACC (TP INR1,165), Ambuja (TP INR186) and Ultratech (TP INR2,083) and two of the three companies
in our Indonesian coverage: Indocement (TP IDR15,600) and Holcim Indonesia (TP IDR650). Our South
East Asia cement analyst upgraded market-leader Semen Indonesia to Hold on 4 September 2015 on
valuation grounds.
Of the global majors, we prefer Cemex (Buy, TP USD10.15) and HeidelbergCement (Buy, TP EUR81,
EUR73 valuation with Italcementi acquisition) because of their strong exposure to the US and recovering
European markets. Cemex should also benefit from a 20% exposure to Mexico, one of the few emerging
countries where we are expecting robust volume and price growth in 2015-17.
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We reiterate our Reduce rating on global industry leader LafargeHolcim, with a target price reduced to
CHF42 from CHF66.
Our regional stances on the cement producers and preferred stocks therein are summarised as follows:
 Divergent view on global majors with our Buy ratings on Cemex and HeidelbergCement for their
US, Mexico (Cemex only) and UK exposures. We are also positive on Buzzi (Buy, TP EUR17.5)
because of a favourable combination of US exposure and stock value. CRH remains Hold because of
valuation, (TP EUR27 from EUR28). We re-iterate our Reduce rating on LafargeHolcim (Reduce,
TP CHF42 from CHF66), whose EM exposure we expect to lead to a fall in EBITDA and ROIC
below the level of 2014 and the cost of capital.
 More constructive on China coverage, but mostly because of valuation. Although our EBITDA
forecasts are an average 9% lower in 2017 versus 2014, which assumes stabilisation of cement volume
and prices in 2016, we believe that the just over 25% share price fall in our basket of Chinese cement
companies since 24 April 2015 has oversold some stocks. We rate Anhui Conch (TP HKD27.1) and
BBMG (TP HKD7.7) Buy, having upgraded them post Q2 results and after the sell-off since the end of
April. We rate the other four companies in our China cement coverage Hold.
 Cautious on Indonesia. Following the 30% sell-off in the year to date, we have partly moderated our
long-term bear stance on the Indonesia cement sector. We upgraded market leader Semen Indonesia to
Hold on 4 September 2015 (TP IDR8,600), on valuation grounds, although our target price still implies
12% downside. We expect a new capacity surge in 2015-16 and beyond to undermine pricing power,
margin and return on capital across our coverage. We rate Indocement and Holcim Indonesia Reduce.
 Reduce on all of our Indian coverage. Despite the 14% aggregate fall in their share prices since the
beginning of March 2015, our valuations of the three cement companies in our coverage still imply
an average 18% downside. Although we are forecasting a strong recovery in margins and return on
invested capital, these only go back to trend levels of return, whereas the enterprise multiples of
invested capital are all at premia to trend (Exhibit 6). Sector leader Ultratech (UW, TP INR2,083) is
our key Reduce call and trades at elevated prospective multiples.
 Only three Buy ratings within other emerging countries. Our list of Buy rated stocks in other
emerging countries is short and includes Cemex Latam Holdings (TP COP16,300) and two Saudi
Arabian companies, Yamamah Cement Company (TP SAR47) and Saudi Cement Company
(TP SAR89). For more on these names see Jonathan Brandt’s LatAm Cement: Key markets providing
support, 21 September 2015 and Patrick Gaffney’s Saudi Cement: Selectivity is key, 17 September 2015.
Global valuation screen supports cautious stance
Our stock valuations and target prices are based on different methodologies that relate to the sector within
the local market. However, for the purposes of identifying and comparing value across the global cement
coverage, we use a comparison of 2016e EV/IC multiples with ROICs in Exhibit 6. The majority of our
coverage trades on either side of 1.0, which implies that their ROICs are earning WACC and are fairly
priced on 2016 metrics. We expand this analysis in Exhibit 7, where we look at the premium/discount of
each stock’s current EV/IC to their respective long-term averages.
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 Of the global majors only CRH trades at a significant premium to par (1.4x), with the other companies
trading between par and a 10% premium. We forecast LafargeHolcim to generate ROIC substantially
below cost of capital in 2016-17, justifying our target price EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.0x.
 The Indian cement companies trade at high multiples of EV/IC (ACC, Ambuja and Ultratech) and big
premia to their long-term average multiples (Exhibit 7). We believe that these premia anticipate a
recovery beyond our forecasts, which fits the investment thesis of our uniform Reduce ratings.
 Two of the Indonesian cement companies (Indocement and Semen Indonesia) also trade at high
multiples of EV/IC albeit at discounts to their long-term average trading multiples (Exhibit 7). Semen
Indonesia is one of the cheapest in our coverage relative to its long-term average multiple, with the
other two companies in close proximity within our coverage ranking. However, we believe that these
discounts to the long-term average are fully justified by the challenged industry outlook in the
country, reflected in the average 26% share price downside that we project.
 Our China coverage screens well at 2016e absolute EV/IC discounts (except highest ROIC generating
market leader Anhui Conch) and at significant discounts to the long-term averages (Exhibit 7). This
supports our more positive stance on Anhui Conch and BBMG.
 The high EV/IC multiples of the Saudi producers (Buy on Yamamah and Saudi and Hold on Yanbu
and Qassim) is reflected in their high ROICs.
Exhibit 6: 2016e EV/IC vs ROIC for the global cement producers
4.5
4.0
IndocemenStiam City
3.5 Ultratech
Yamamah
ACC
3.0 Saudi
Ambuja
V/IC 2.5 Yanbu Akcansa
2016e E 2.0 Semen Indonesia Cimsa
1.5 CRH Siam Cem
Shanshui Buzzi Conch
LafargeHolcim HeidelbergCement
1.0Italcementi CNBMCRC
Holcim Indo
BBMG
0.5
AC China
0.0
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%
2016e ROIC

Source: HSBC estimates

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Exhibit 7: Premium/discount of 2016e EV/IC to long-term average
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
Akcansa ACC Cimsa Ultratech Italcementi Buzzi Qassim Siam Cement HeidelbergCement Yamamah Saim City Cement CRH Saudi Ambuja CRC AC China Yanbu CNBM ex Latam Holdings Indocement Anhui Conch Holcim Indonesia Semen Indonesia BBMG
m
e
C

Source: Company data, HSBC estimates

Increased dividends for global majors and Indian companies
We are forecasting the global majors to make a concerted effort to slow down investment in new plant in
2015-16, to increase free cash flows and reduce indebtedness. They pay low dividend yields because
ROICs are low and Lafarge, HeidelbergCement and Italcementi have been repairing their balance sheets.
Increasingly, our company coverage in EM is also reducing capital investment in new plant, after
significant increases in China, India, Indonesia and Thailand up to 2015.
We forecast little and no improvement in dividend yield respectively in China and Indonesia because the
ROICs and free cash flows are not improving. Our Turkish and Saudi Arabian coverage offer the highest
prospective dividend yields courtesy of their high payout ratios and high ROICs.
Exhibit 8: Net debt to EBITDA falling in all regions except Indonesia
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 5e 6e 7e
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 2
Global maj. LatAm Turkey China India Indonesia Thailand Saudi Arabia

Source: Company data, HSBC estimates

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Exhibit 9: Saudi and Turkish stocks lead on dividend yield
____________ Dividend yield ____________ ______________ Payout ratio _____________
2015e 2016e 2017e 2015e 2016e 2017e
Global majors 1.7% 1.9% 2.8% 53.3% 43.3% 37.5%
LatAm 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Turkey 8.6% 9.4% 9.0% 78.0% 78.5% 76.0%
China 1.6% 1.9% 2.0% 50.8% 40.2% 42.3%
India 1.6% 1.8% 2.5% 50.8% 40.2% 42.3%
Indonesia 5.1% 4.2% 3.9% 82.7% 78.3% 73.4%
Thailand 3.6% 3.7% 4.0% 58.9% 56.4% 54.8%
Saudi Arabia 8.0% 7.2% 5.9% 91.6% 96.6% 94.2%
Source: Company data, HSBC estimates

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Exhibit 10: Global HSBC cement universe valuation summary
SGG
18-Sep-15 RIC Curr Target Current Upside Rating Mkt cap __ EV/EBITDA ___ ______ PE _______ ____ EV/IC ______ ____ ROIC ______ _ EBITDA margin __ _ Dividend yield __ eplolo
price price /downside USDm 2015e 2016e 2017e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2015e 2016e 2017e tembbal Cbal B
GBCuRlozHbz ia l majors BCZUR.HM.II EEUURR 172.57 2155..68 125%% HBouldy 233,,396358 1102..93 98..63 77..09 2202..55 1145..97 1121..71 11..0389 11..0346 11..0291 64..03%% 57..15%% 68..68%% 169..97%% 1181..80%% 2101..89%% 02..35%% 02..65%% 32..28%% er 2015 ement uilding Ma
HeidelbergCement HEIG.DE EUR 81 65.1 24% Buy 13,921 8.2 7.6 7.0 13.5 11.5 9.8 1.04 1.01 0.98 6.0% 6.6% 7.2% 18.7% 19.0% 19.4% 2.6% 3.0% 4.1% te
Italcementi ITAI.MI EUR 10 10.0 0% Hold 3,982 9.9 8.7 7.5 nm 37.3 19.3 1.01 1.00 0.99 2.7% 3.5% 4.4% 15.7% 16.4% 17.5% 0.9% 0.9% 1.8% ria
ls
LafargeHolcim LHN.VX CHF 42 56.9 -26% Reduce 36,331 10.0 9.2 8.0 30.3 24.2 16.4 0.98 0.98 0.97 3.7% 4.5% 5.3% 19.5% 20.4% 21.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%
Cemex CX.N USD 10.15 7.7 32% Buy 8,691 9.7 8.4 7.1 nm 27.4 12.5 1.05 1.00 0.96 4.6% 5.8% 6.8% 18.6% 19.6% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Latin America
Cemex Latam Holdings CLH.CN COP 16,300 12,840 27% Buy 2,395 7.3 6.8 5.8 10.4 10.2 9.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 10.1% 10.0% 10.6% 33.2% 34.1% 35.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Turkey
Akcansa AKCNS.IS TRY 15.2 13.75 11% Hold 881 5.7 5.1 4.6 9.3 8.3 7.8 2.20 2.16 2.10 26.7% 28.6% 30.9% 29.3% 29.9% 30.0% 8.6% 9.2% 9.6%
Cimsa CIMSA.IS TRY 16.6 14.9 11% Hold 673.84 5.2 4.9 4.6 8.8 8.4 8.1 1.68 1.64 1.59 21.5% 22.5% 23.3% 30.8% 29.8% 29.4% 8.7% 9.6% 9.5%
China
Anhui Conch 0914.HK HKD 27.1 24.9 9% Buy 15,838 6.9 6.0 5.6 17.8 14.8 14.5 1.39 1.29 1.20 20.7% 20.6% 20.3% 32.9% 32.0% 31.4% 2.4% 2.8% 2.9%
CRC 1313.HK HKD 4.4 3.8 15% Hold 3,220 6.1 6.1 5.7 10.2 9.6 8.8 1.04 0.90 0.89 9.5% 7.8% 8.0% 21.5% 21.7% 21.3% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%
CNBM 3323.HK HKD 5.03 4.9 3% Hold 3,386 8.4 8.8 8.8 11.4 8.1 7.9 0.91 0.90 0.89 4.9% 4.6% 4.5% 22.6% 21.5% 21.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
AC China 0743.HK HKD 2.2 2.3 -6% Hold 473 9.0 6.5 5.6 47.6 11.4 11.5 0.58 0.55 0.52 2.0% 2.7% 3.2% 14.4% 18.1% 19.1% 0.0% 1.7% 2.5%
BBMG 2009.HK HKD 7.7 5.8 33% Buy 2,939 12.4 12.4 10.7 11.7 9.8 7.6 2.03 1.95 1.88 6.2% 7.6% 9.2% 16.5% 16.3% 18.1% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4%
India
ACC ACC.BO INR 1,165 1,375 -15% Reduce 3,926 15.8 11.4 9.2 34.0 23.0 17.5 3.20 3.05 2.96 9.5% 13.8% 17.5% 13.2% 16.0% 17.6% 2.5% 2.9% 2.9%
Ambuja ABUJ.BO INR 186 210 -11% Reduce 4,950 10.3 7.5 5.7 29.3 21.7 15.7 1.94 1.85 1.80 11.4% 10.1% 13.8% 15.4% 18.6% 20.9% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1%
Ultratech* ULTC.BO INR 2,083 2,938 -29% Reduce 12,259 19.3 13.7 NA 29.6 20.7 NA 3.54 3.42 NA 10.3% 15.3% NA 20.0% 23.2% NA 0.3% 0.3% NA
Indonesia
Semen Indonesia SMGR.JK IDR 8,600 9,775 -12% Hold 4,033 8.1 8.2 7.5 13.6 14.9 13.8 2.18 2.06 1.93 18.2% 15.0% 15.5% 26.9% 24.1% 23.2% 3.8% 3.0% 2.7%
Indocement INTP.JK IDR 15,600 18,800 -17% Reduce 4,814 10.6 10.8 10.3 16.5 17.6 17.5 3.59 3.36 3.22 24.3% 20.0% 19.4% 31.1% 28.1% 27.0% 7.2% 5.9% 5.5%
Holcim Indonesia SMCB.JK IDR 650 990 -34% Reduce 528 8.1 8.2 8.1 18.7 23.0 24.3 0.88 0.88 0.88 4.5% 4.1% 4.1% 16.8% 15.0% 14.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.6%
Thailand
Siam Cement SCC.BK THB 433 490 -12% Reduce 16,556 9.2 9.9 8.6 13.6 15.1 13.9 2.26 2.21 1.95 16.5% 13.9% 13.9% 16.3% 15.1% 15.7% 3.1% 3.0% 3.2%
Siam City Cement SCCC.BK THB 370 358 3% Hold 2,318 11.5 9.7 8.8 18.1 15.2 13.6 3.55 3.42 3.31 20.4% 23.3% 25.0% 22.2% 23.3% 24.3% 4.2% 4.5% 4.7%
Saudi Arabia
Qassim Cement 3040.SE SAR 90 79.8 13% Hold 1,914 9.1 10.2 11.7 12.3 13.9 16.4 5.24 5.26 5.30 47.4% 42.4% 36.3% 67.0% 62.1% 56.9% 7.5% 6.9% 6.0%
Yamamah 3020.SE SAR 47 39.01 20% Buy 2,089 7.2 7.8 8.8 12.5 14.1 16.7 3.03 3.18 3.37 29.6% 28.2% 25.2% 63.1% 58.3% 51.6% 7.8% 7.1% 5.2%
Yanbu 3060.SE SAR 60 54.2 11% Hold 2,247 8.4 9.8 11.9 11.6 14.3 18.7 2.36 2.42 2.52 20.6% 17.6% 14.0% 62.7% 55.9% 48.3% 7.5% 6.7% 5.2%
Saudi Cement 3030.SE SAR 89 72.0 24% Buy 2,897 8.7 9.8 10.8 10.3 12.0 13.6 3.03 3.10 3.18 28.0% 25.0% 23.1% 64.1% 57.8% 51.2% 9.2% 8.1% 7.4%
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC
*Fiscal year ending March

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