Georgia: Pawn in the New Great Game

271 Pages·2010·4.401 MB·English

by  Per Gahrton

GEORGIA
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Georgia
Pawn in the New Great Game
Per Gahrton
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First published 2010 by Pluto Press
345 Archway Road, London N6 5AA and
175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010
Distributed in the United States of America exclusively by
Palgrave Macmillan, a division of St. Martin’s Press LLC,
175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010
www.plutobooks.com
Copyright © Per Gahrton 2010
The right of Per Gahrton to be identified as the author of this work has
been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and
Patents Act 1988.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
ISBN 978 0 7453 2860 7 Hardback
ISBN 978 0 7453 2859 1 Paperback
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data applied for
This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully
managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufactur-
ing processes are expected to conform to the environmental standards of
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Designed and produced for Pluto Press by
Curran Publishing Services, Norwich
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CONTENTS
List of photos ix
List of acronyms xi
Preface xiii
Map of Georgia xv
1 The geopolitical setting – a renewed Great Game 1
A troubled area 1
The new Silk Road 4
The Western offensive 6
A regional alternative? 9
Russia’s comeback 10
Chechnya – all about oil? 14
New Russian strategy 15
Will Obama make a difference? 16
Notes 18
2 Puppet or buffer? 20
Paradoxes 20
National or private religion? 24
Georgianization 26
Javakheti – far from Tbilisi 28
A transit country 30
Puppet or buffer? 32
Notes 32
3 A history of failed independence 34
Long before Christ 35
Georgievsk 1783 – occupation or protection? 36
The first modern independence 38
Soviet Georgia = occupied territory? 41
Notes 44
4 The dissolution of the Soviet Union – blessing or disaster? 46
Perestroika 48
Social collapse, political pluralism 49
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vi CONTENTS
On the brink of civil war 53
Western indifference to Russian suffering 55
Notes 55
5 The breakaway regions – Russian stooges or freedom
seekers? 57
South Ossetia 57
Abolishing the autonomy 58
Years of relative calm 60
Attempts at reconquest 61
Abkhazia 63
Countdown towards war 64
The fall of Sukhumi, and Georgian mass flight 67
Russia – culprit or scapegoat? 69
Renewed tension 71
Peace efforts 73
Waiting for a Georgian de Gaulle 74
Notes 75
6 Gamsakhurdia, the tactical fanatic 78
April 9, 1989 79
Good liberator, poor administrator 81
Dark legacy 82
Notes 84
7 Shevardnadze, the failed saviour 86
Contradicting moods 86
Shevardnadze’s comeback 90
Shevardnadze’s first ‘realistic’ phase 92
2000: cracks in the wall 94
Shevardnadze turns to the West 97
Escalation 98
Preparing for Shevardnadze’s exit 102
Back to Russia? 102
Notes 103
8 Kmara – enough! The Rose Revolution 105
Did the opposition win? 108
Fear of Abashidze 111
Peaceful takeover 112
Was it a CIA-led coup? 114
Notes 118
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CONTENTS vii
9 The revolutionary honeymoon 119
Successes and failures 120
The presidential election of 2004 121
The brain of the revolution 124
Towards one-party democracy? 126
Reconciliation with Russia? 127
Deteriorating relations with Russia 128
The end of the honeymoon 129
Notes 132
10 The death of Zhvania – the revolution loses its brain 134
A Green realist 134
Zurab as political psychotherapist 138
Was Zhvania assassinated? 142
Repercussions of the death of Zhvania 146
A great loss 149
Notes 150
11 Saakashvili, the failed liberator 151
Minister, mayor, president 152
The November crisis, 2007 155
The presidential election of 2008 158
The parliamentary election of 2008 167
Good for business, not for the poor 170
Notes 173
12 The Ossetia War 2008 – a conspiracy, but by whom? 176
The final escalation 177
‘Operation Clear Field’ 178
Ceasefire 179
The aftermath 180
Contradictory conspiracy theories 182
A struggle about democracy? 184
Countermoves against Russian re-emergence? 186
Dissident voices 187
The European Union blames Georgia most, which
embarrasses the EU presidency 188
Notes 191
13 After the war: renewed political clashes 195
Attempted coup – or fake? 197
Repressive tolerance 200
Notes 202
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viii CONTENTS
14 Georgia and Russia, the prodigal son and the Big Brother 204
Russia’s whiplashes 205
Escalation 207
No anti-Russian feelings 210
Russians against anti-Georgian policy 212
Is a Russian carrot impossible? 213
Notes 215
15 Georgia’s future: Caucasian, European and nonaligned 216
NATO: no solution 216
Why not a Finnish option? 218
Cyprus repeated in the Caucasus? 220
What carrot for Russia? 222
Russian neocolonialism – or just globalization? 225
Options for Georgia 227
The need for alternative policy 229
Notes 232
Bibliography 237
Index 243
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PHOTOS
1 The author with vice premier Gia Baramidze, former
Green activist, who considers the strategic partnership
agreement concluded with the United States in January
2009 as almost equivalent to a Membership Action Plan
and an important step towards NATO membership for
Georgia 17
2 The heritage of Stalin is a complicated aspect for many
Georgians. There is still a huge statue of him in his town
of birth, Gori 43
3 The author with Edward Shevardnadze in 2000 (in the
middle is the head of the EU delegation in Tbilisi) 96
4 Shalva Natelashvili (here on an election poster 2008),
the leader of Labour, the only major party with a
genuinely alternative programme, could have achieved a
strategic position after the 2003 elections had there not
been the Rose Revolution 110
5 Zurab Zhvania founded the Green Party, then became
Shevardnadze’s designated successor, but he changed
parties in 2001 and was one of the leaders of the Rose
Revolution in 2003. Here with the author and other
Green MEPs in 2000 135
6 A poster used by the opposition during the election
campaign of May 2008, saying: ‘Zhvania is dead,
everything is possible’. Most Georgians believe that the
premature and mysterious death of Zhvania has had
negative repercussions for their country 143
7 The new presidential palace overlooking Tbilisi,
constructed on the model of the White House in
Washington DC. The Italian architect was granted
Georgian citizenship as a reward for his work 153
8 Saakashvili addressing an election rally. He was elected
in the first round, which according to the opposition was
a result of fraud. This started a campaign which is still
ongoing demanding the resignation of the president 160
9 During three months, from April to July 2009, mock
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