Geopolitics of Energy in South Asia

273 Pages·5.674 MB·English

by  Lall.

The Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS) was established in July 2004 as an
autonomous research institute within the National University of Singapore (NUS).
The establishment of the Institute reflects the increasing economic and political
importance of South Asia, and the strong historical links between South Asia and
Southeast Asia.
The Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) was established as an autonomous
organization in 1968. It is a regional centre dedicated to the study of socio-political,
security and economic trends and developments in Southeast Asia and its wider
geostrategic and economic environment. The Institute’s research programmes are the
Regional Economic Studies (RES, including ASEAN and APEC), Regional Strategic
and Political Studies (RSPS), and Regional Social and Cultural Studies (RSCS).
ISEAS Publishing, an established academic press, has issued almost 2,000 books
and journals. It is the largest scholarly publisher of research about Southeast Asia from
within the region. ISEAS Publishing works with many other academic and trade
publishers and distributors to disseminate important research and analyses from and
about Southeast Asia to the rest of the world.
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I S E A S S E R I E S O N E N E R G Y
EDITED BY
MARIE LALL
INSTITUTE OF SOUTH ASIAN STUDIES
Singapore
INSTITUTE OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN STUDIES
Singapore
First published in Singapore in 2009 by
ISEAS Publications
Institute of Southeast Asian Studies
30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace, Pasir Panjang
Singapore 119614
E-mail: [email protected] • Website: bookshop.iseas.edu.sg
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval
system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the Institute of Southeast Asian
Studies.
© 2009 Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore
The responsibility for facts and opinions in this publication rests exclusively with the authors
and their interpretations do not necessarily reflect the views or the policy of the publisher or
its supporters.
ISEAS Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
The Geopolitics of energy in South Asia / edited by Marie Lall.
Papers originally presented to a Conference on Geopolitics of Energy in South Asia,
Singapore, 14 August 2007, organised by Institute of South Asian Studies.
1. Power resources—South Asia—Congresses.
2. Energy policy—South Asia—Congresses
I. Lall, Marie.
II. National University of Singapore. Institute of South Asian Studies.
III. Conference on Geopolitics of Energy in South Asia (2007 : Singapore)
HD9502 S642G34 2009
ISBN 978-981-230-827-6 (hard cover)
ISBN 978-981-230-828-3 (PDF)
Typeset by International Typesetters Pte Ltd
Printed in Singapore by Utopia Press Pte Ltd
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To Viren,
my perpetual inspiration
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Contents
List of Tables and Figures ix
Foreword xii
Director, ISAS
Foreword xiv
Director, ISEAS
The Contributors xv
Introduction 1
by Marie Lall
1 Oil and Gas Pricing Policies in India 14
by S. Narayan
2 India’s New Foreign Policy: The Journey from Moral 27
Non-Alignment to the Nuclear Deal
by Marie Lall
3 Regional Integration in South Asia and Energy Cooperation: 51
Opportunities and Challenges
by Aparna Shivpuri Singh
4 Pakistan’s Energy Crisis: Challenges and Opportunities 83
by Iftikhar A. Lodhi
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viii Contents
5 Energy Security and Geopolitics in South Asia: Historical 94
Baggage, Global Powers, and Rational Choice
by Iftikhar A. Lodhi
6 Energy Cooperation between India and Bangladesh: 123
Economics and Geopolitics
by M. Shahidul Islam
7 Sino-Indian Energy Politics 152
by Mingjiang Li
8 Linkages in Urban and Energy Policies: An Analysis of 162
China and India
by Indu Rayadurgam
9 Strategic Petroleum Reserves in China and India 192
by Elspeth Thomson
10 New Partnerships in Energy in Asia between India, Japan, 213
and Singapore
by Mark Hong
11 The Geopolitics of Energy in India: Implications for 223
Southeast Asia
by Deepak L. Waikar
Concluding Remarks: The Context for India’s Energy Geopolitics 243
by Ann Florini
Index 247
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List of Tables and Figures
TABLES
Table 0.1 Key Economic Indicators of Selected South Asian 3
Countries, 2005
Table 0.2 Energy Status Indicators of India, Pakistan, and 4
Bangladesh (mtoe), 2004
Table 0.3 Short-to-Medium Term Forecast of Commercial 7
Energy Demand in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh
Table 3.1 Intra-regional Trade (as a percentage of total trade 54
between 1980–2004)
Table 3.2 Percentage Share of SAARC Countries in India’s Total 55
Trade
Table 3.3 Access to Electricity, 2005 58
Table 3.4 Per Capita Commercial Energy Consumption 60
Table 3.5 Import Dependence of Energy Sector in South Asia 60
Table 3.6 Oil Reserves, Production, and Consumption in South 61
Asia
Table 3.7 Natural Gas Reserves, Production, and Consumption 61
in South Asia
Table 3.8 Coal Reserves, Production, and Consumption in 62
South Asia
Table 3.9 Hydropower in South Asia 62
Table 3.10 Energy Basket of South Asia (percentage) 63
Table 3.11 Sales of Power from Bhutan to India (millions of 72
Ngultrum)
Table 3.12 Revenue Generated in Nepal from Electricity Sale to India 73
Table 3.13 Medium-Term Forecast of Commercial Energy 75
Demand, 2002–10
Table 3.14 Long-Term Forecast of Commercial Energy Demand, 76
2010–20
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xx List of Tables andC Fonigtuenretss
Table 3.15 Existing Regional Power Pools 79
Table 4.1 Pakistan Energy Mix and Demand Forecasts 85
Table 4.2 Pakistan Multiple Energy Scenarios (2025) 88
Table 4.3 Pakistan Power Generation Plans, 2006–07 90
Table 4.4 Pakistan Installed Power Generation Capacity, 90
2006–07
Table 5.1 Economic and Energy Indicators, 2006–07 101
Table 6.1 Comparison of Empirical Results from Developing 127
Countries
Table 6.2 Key Economic Indicators of India and Bangladesh, 129
2005
Table 6.3 Key Energy Indicators of India and Bangladesh, 2004 129
Table 6.4 Bangladesh’s GDP and Gas Demand Forecasts, 2025 137
Table 6.5 Gas Supply-demand Summary: Scenario A 138
Table 6.6 Gas Supply-demand Summary: Scenario B 139
Table 8.1 Demand for Energy in Transport Sector: OECD and 169
Non-OECD Countries
Table 8.2 Current Energy Situation in India 172
Table 8.3 China: Share of Total Primary Energy Supply 173
Table 8.4 China and India: Comparative Indicators 179
Table 8.5 Energy Saving Potential in India 182
Table 8.6 Energy Saving Potential in China 182
Table 9.1 Comparative Oil Production/Consumption and 194
Refining Capacity (end of 2006)
Table 9.2 Comparative per Capita Oil Consumption, 2003 196
(barrels per day per 1,000 people)
Table 9.3 China’s Main Sources of Crude in 2006 (percentage) 197
Table 9.4 China’s Total Energy Breakdown, 2004 (thousand 202
tonnes oil equivalent on a net calorific basis and
percentages)
Table 9.5 Electricity Generation by Source in China and India, 203
2004 (Gigawatt-hours and percentages)
Table 9.6 India’s Total Energy Breakdown, 2004 (thousand tonnes 204
oil equivalent on a net calorific basis and percentages)
Table 11.1 India’s Power Sector 229
Table 11.2 Indian Power Sector (Distribution by Fuel Type) 229
Table 11.3 Indian Power Sector (Distribution of Thermal Power 230
by Type)
Table 11.4 International Cooperation in the Coal Sector 231
Table 11.5 Summary of Perceived Potential Implications 237
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