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GEOPOLITICS BY Axel Berkofsky The Asia-Pacific has become the Indo-Pacific region G E is Professor at the University as the US, Japan, Australia and India have decided O of Pavia and Co-Head P OTHER MEANS to join forces and scale-up their political, economic O of Asia Centre at ISPI. L Founded in 1934, ISPI is and security cooperation. The message coming from I T an independent think tank Washington, Tokyo, Canberra and Delhi is clear: China’s I C S THE INDO-PACIFIC REALITY committed to the study of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is no longer the only game B international political and in town and Beijing’s policymakers better get ready for Y economic dynamics. O fierce competition. Japan’s ongoing and future “quality T It is the only Italian Institute infrastructure” policies and investments in the Indo-Pacific H edited by Axel Berkofsky and Sergio Miracola E – and one of the very few in in particular make it very clear that Tokyo wants a (much) R introduction by Paolo Magri Europe – to combine research M bigger slice of the pie of infrastructure investments in the activities with a significant E region. China’s territorial expansionism in the South China A commitment to training, events, N Sea and its increasing interests and presence in countries S and global risk analysis for in South Asia have done their share to help the four . T companies and institutions. H ISPI favours an interdisciplinary aforesaid countries expand their security and defence ties. E I and policy-oriented approach Beijing, of course, smells containment in all of this and it N D made possible by a research probably has a point. O team of over 50 analysts and - Who will have the upper hand in shaping and defining P A an international network of 70 Asian security and providing developing South and C universities, think tanks, and I Southeast Asia with badly-needed infrastructure: the F I research centres. In the ranking C US and Japan together with its allies or the increasingly issued by the University of R assertive and uncompromising China’s BRI? E Pennsylvania, ISPI placed first A L worldwide as the “Think Tank I T to Watch in 2018”. Y euro 12,00 Geopolitics by Other Means the indo-pacific reality edited by Axel Berkofsky and Sergio Miracola © 2019 Ledizioni LediPublishing Via Alamanni, 11 – 20141 Milano – Italy www.ledizioni.it [email protected] Geopolitics by Other Means. The Indo-Pacific Reality Edited by Axel Berkofsky and Sergio Miracola First edition: February 2019 The opinions expressed herein are strictly personal and do not necessarily reflect the position of ISPI. Cover image created by Diana Orefice Print ISBN 9788867059287 ePub ISBN 9788867059294 Pdf ISBN 9788867059300 DOI 10.14672/67059287 ISPI. Via Clerici, 5 20121, Milan www.ispionline.it Catalogue and reprints information: www.ledizioni.it Table of Contents Introduction........................................................................ 7 Paolo Magri 1. What is the Indo-Pacific? The New Geopolitics of the Asia-Centred Rim Land........................................ 13 Gurpreet S. Khurana 2. The Indo-Pacific As a New Infrastructural and Economic-Trade Area: A Real Competitor to BRI?............................................ 33 Sergio Miracola 3. An Administration at War with Itself: The New US Strategy for the Indo-Pacific....................... 55 Brad Glosserman 4. India and the Pacific Ocean: The “Act East” Between Trade, Infrastructure and Security.............................................. 71 Jagannath P. Panda 5. Japan and the Indo-Pacific: Alive and Kicking............................................................ 97 Axel Berkofsky 6. Australia’s Economic, Infrastructural and Security Objectives in the Indo-Pacific...................... 115 John Hemmings 131 Conclusions and Recommendations for the EU.................. The Authors.........................................................................137 Introduction In 2007, in a speech before the Indian Parliament, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe brought back to light an ancient Asian geographical vision: the so-called “confluence of the two seas”. It referred to the idea of linking the Pacific with the Indian Ocean, as Japanese policymakers conceived the concept at the time. That would later become the “Indo-Pacific region”, replac- ing the “Asia-Pacific” as a geopolitical concept, thus incorporat- ing countries and countries’ policies deep inside but also outside the geographical boundaries of the Asia-Pacific. This is also the reason why Europe – or better – some individual European countries such as France and the UK, are currently developing and adopting policies and strategies in the name of the “Indo- Pacific”. It goes hand in hand with the increased presence of British and French navy vessels in Asian territorial waters. The “Indo-Pacific” concept turned into a more coherent con- struct when it was first discussed and announced – at the gov- ernmental level – in the 2013 Australian Defence White Paper. Hence, since 2013, the geopolitical concept of “Indo-Pacific” has begun to be conceived as a means to connect India to the Pacific Ocean, e.g. by establishing closer political and security relations between New Delhi and the other key East Asian state actors minus China. The concept also attracted interest within the administration of former US President Barack Obama, but it did not immediately push Washington to shift its strategic engage- ment in the region from the “Pivot to Asia” announced in 8 Geopolitics by Other Means. The Indo-Pacific Reality 2011 to a full-fledged “Indo-Pacific” strategy. However, after Donald Trump’s first trip to Asia in November 2017, the Indo- Pacific started to take shape as the geopolitical and concep- tual background of US security and strategic involvement in Asia. The former “Asia-Pacific” became the “Indo-Pacific” for Washington’s defence and security policy planners. Even if much needs to be decided and defined as far as further strategic, economic, and trade cooperation between the US, Japan, Australia, and India is concerned in the Indo-Pacific region, the US under Trump is putting significant political cap- ital and resources into expanding security relations with these major actors of the Indo-Pacific region. Needless to say, the Indo-Pacific concept is also gaining trac- tion because of China’s increasing foreign and security policy assertiveness (in the region and beyond). Currently, the outliers – as far as the expansion of security and defence ties are concerned – are Japan and India, also motivated by the expansive nature of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Joint Japanese- Indian concerns are indeed directly related to the kind of policies and strategies China pursues with countries collaborating with Beijing on BRI projects in Asia, Central Asia, Africa, and Europe. Neither Japan nor India are part of the BRI, and even if Japan no longer categorically excludes collaborating with China on BRI infrastructure and development-related projects, the prospects of Japanese contributions to China-driven BRI continue to remain very bleak. Tokyo links its contributions to a series of preconditions, which many of the BRI projects simply do not meet. However, not only Japan and India are expanding their on- the-ground cooperation to add substance and result-oriented projects to the concept of the Indo-Pacific. The US has begun to join Tokyo and New Delhi in promoting large infrastructure projects, either in a bilateral or multilateral framework. “Quality infrastructure” by Japan, the US, and India is what they promote, with an emphasis on quality as “sustainable” and “balanced” in opposition to Chinese-led mega-infrastructure Introduction 9 projects. These projects, critics point out, have led to a sharp increase in developing countries’ debts to China, beyond sustainable levels. Japan has successfully kept the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) alive, after Donald Trump decided to aban- don this inter-regional free trade agreement on his first day in office in January 2017. For its part, India continues adopting what since 2014 it refers to as “Look East” policies, i.e. India’s closer involvement in East and Southeast Asian politics and security. Australia, in turn, has since 2013 adapted its foreign policy strategy to the fast-changing Asian strategic landscape. The growing Chinese presence in the Pacific Ocean is further un- dermining Australia’s diplomatic leverage on the small Pacific Ocean countries. Thus, Canberra is aiming at closer cooperation with Japan, India, and the US. This quadrilateral relation- ship is gaining, in fact, a new momentum under the term and concept of “Quad”. However, if India, Japan, the US, and Australia are now firmly committed to the establishment of a new strategic area for regional interstate relations, China, of course, will not be sitting on its hands. The increased cooperation among those four democratic countries is perceived and interpreted in China as part of a US-driven containment strategy towards Beijing. To be sure, China will not passively wait for what it fears is US-Japanese-driven containment to materialise and has its own ideas on how to position itself – possibly with partners – in the Indo-Pacific region. Moreover, at this stage, China is also mov- ing towards the establishment of new strategic stances, with the objective of confronting those challenges, posed by real or im- aginary containment policies. From the Chinese perspective, the BRI is therefore not only a massive inter-regional infrastructure project but also an instrument to defend the country from US-driven geopolitical and economic encirclement. This Report aims to analyse the whole spectrum of geopolitical, strategic, and economic layers that together form the emerging “Indo-Pacific” reality. 10 Geopolitics by Other Means. The Indo-Pacific Reality To start with, Gurpreet S. Khurana investigates the origins of the “Indo-Pacific” concept. After examining the importance of India’s rise for the subsequent development and definition of the concept, he puts the spotlight on the evolving East Asian geopolitics and geo-economics after the establishment of this new strategic framework. Sergio Miracola investigates the infrastructural, economic, and trade importance of the new Indo-Pacific area and how – and to what extent – it can be seen as a counter-pole to China’s BRI. His chapter illustrates the major economic and infrastructural projects sponsored by Japan and the US and explains how these two state actors are expanding their diplomatic network in order to check China’s rise. Furthermore, the author analyses China’s strategic counter-response to what it perceives as a US- Japanese-Indian attempt to “encircle” China. Brad Glosserman devotes specific attention to the new American strategy for the Indo-Pacific. He divides his analysis into three dimensions: economic, infrastructural, and security. Glosserman explains how the US under Donald Trump is plan- ning to transform Obama’s “pivot to Asia” into a more compre- hensive and all-encompassing economic and security strategy in the Indo-Pacific region. He illustrates how Washington under Trump is funding new infrastructural projects for the region in order to offer an alternative model to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative. The so-called “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) strategy, above all endorsed and propagated by Tokyo and Washington, is part of their efforts to present actors inside and outside the region with an alternative to China’s BRI. India is at the core of Jagannath P. Panda’s analysis. The author points out that the economic and military rise of India is changing Asia’s geopolitical and geostrategic landscape. He gauges the new shifts of Indian foreign policy, especially under Narendra Modi, who has lately boosted Indian regional confidence through the “Act East Policy” (AEP). Particular attention is also given to New Delhi’s Pacific diplomacy towards the Pacific Island Countries (PICs), which are courted by both China and India.