Geography of Poverty in Pakistan - ppaf.org.pk

140 Pages·2016·5.94 MB·English

Geography of Poverty in Pakistan
– 2008-09 to 2012-13:
Distribution, Trends and Explanations
ARIF NAVEED, GEOF WOOD, MUHAMMAD USMAN GHAUS
JOINT REPORT BY:
Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund &
Sustainable Development Policy Institute
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or
transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical,
including photocopying, recording or information storage and
retrieval system, without prior written permission of the publishers.
A joint publication of the Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund
(PPAF) and Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI).
The opinions expressed in the paper are solely those of the author,
and publishing them does not in any way constitute an endorsement
of the opinion by the PPAF or the SDPI.
The Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund is a not-for-pro�it company
that represents an innovative model of public private partnership
for poverty reduction in Pakistan. Sustainable Development Policy
Institute is an independent, non-pro�it research institute on
sustainable development.
© 2016 by the Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund & Sustainable
Development Policy Institute
Geography of Poverty in Pakistan – 2008-09 to 2012-13: Distribution, Trends and Explanations

Contents

Acknowldegment
List of Tables
List of Maps
List of Figures
Acronyms

Foreword ........................................................................................................................................................... i
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ iii

Chapter 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1
Chapter 2 Conceptual Approach, Methodology and Data ............................................................. 5
Chapter 3 Poverty Headcount Ratio .................................................................................................... 19
Chapter 4 Depth of Deprivation: Intensity of Poverty .................................................................. 33
Chapter 5 Adjusted Headcount Ratio: Index of Multidimensional Poverty ........................... 43
Chapter 6 Extreme Poverty..................................................................................................................... 53
Chapter 7 Drivers of Multidimensional Poverty .............................................................................. 63
Chapter 8 Towards Explaining and Addressing the Diversity of Poverty in Pakistan:
Moving from Quantitative to Qualitative Analysis .................................................... 71

References ....................................................................................................................................................... 97
Annexures ....................................................................................................................................................... 99

Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund & Sustainable Development Policy Institute
Acknowledgement
The authors are thankful to Qazi Azmat Isa and Samia Liaquat Ali Khan
both at Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF), and Abid Suleri at
Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) for their tremendous
support in producing this report. This report has greatly bene�itted from the
feedback on earlier draft by Hari Lohano, Sajid Amin Javed, Ra�i Amir Uddin
and Adnan Ra�iq. The authors also acknowledge the coordination support
provided by Uzma Nomani, research assistance provided by Ayesha Qaisrani
and Hina Khayyam, and the editorial support by Imrana Niazi and Anija Dokter.
Copy editing provided by Saleem Khilji is also greatly acknowledged.
Authors also thank Javed Ashraf at PPAF for providing GIS maps presented
in this report, and Mohsin Jamal for designing and layout of the report.
Authors take the full responsibility of the views expressed and any errors
and omissions.
Geography of Poverty in Pakistan – 2008-09 to 2012-13: Distribution, Trends and Explanations

List of Tables

Table 2.1: Dimensions, indicators, cut-off points and weights ..................................................................................................... 14
Table 2.2: PSLM Sample Size (individual) 2008-09, 2010-11, 2012-13 ................................................................................... 15
Table 2.3: Indicator wise deprivation in total population Pakistan 2008-09 to 2012-13 ................................................. 16
Table 3.1: Estimates of poverty headcount at the national level 2008-09 to 2012-13 ...................................................... 19
Table 3.2: Province wise headcount ratio with rural-urban disaggregation ........................................................................... 20
Table 3.3: Bottom/5th Quintile of Districts over Poverty Headcount Ratio .......................................................................... 23
Table 3.4: 4th Quintile of Districts over Poverty Headcount Ratio ........................................................................................... 24
Table 3.5: Districts with the Highest Share to the Headcount Ratio 2012-13 ...................................................................... 27
Table 3.6: Top Quintile of Districts with the Highest Reduction in Headcount Ratio ......................................................... 29
Table 4.1: Estimates of Intensity of Poverty at the National Level 2008-09 to 2012-13 .................................................. 33
Table 4.2: Intensity of Poverty by Provinces and Rural Urban Population ............................................................................. 34
Table 4.3: 5th Quintile of Districts with the Highest Intensity of Poverty in Pakistan ....................................................... 35
Table 4.4: 4th Quintile of Districts with the Highest Intensity of Poverty in Pakistan ....................................................... 37
Table 4.5: Top Quintile of Districts with the Greatest Reduction in Intensity ....................................................................... 40
Table 5.1: Adjusted Headcount Ratio at the National Level 2008-09 to 2012-13 ............................................................... 44
Table 5.2: Adjusted Headcount Ratio by Provinces (2008-09 to 2012-13) ............................................................................ 44
Table 5.3: Bottom/5th Quintile of Districts on the Adjusted Headcount Ratio .................................................................... 46
Table 5.4: 4th Quintile of Districts over Adjusted Headcount Ratio ......................................................................................... 47
Table 5.5: Top Quintile of the Districts with the Greatest Decrease in the Value of the
Index of Multidimensional Poverty (2008-09 to 2012-13) ...................................................................................... 50
Table 6.1: Extreme Poverty in Pakistan (2008-09 to 2012-13) ................................................................................................... 53
Table 6.2: Provincial Level Estimates of Extreme Poverty (2008-09 to 2012-13) ............................................................... 54
Table 6.3: The Bottom Quintile of Extreme Poor Districts in Pakistan – (2008-09 to 2012-13) ................................... 56
Table 6.4: 4th Quintile of Districts over Extreme Poverty ............................................................................................................ 57
Table 6.5: Highest contributors to Extreme Poverty 2012-13 .................................................................................................... 59
Table 6.6: Top quintile of extreme poverty change (reduction) 2008-09 to 2012-13 ........................................................ 60
Table 7.1: Censored Headcount Ratios Rural and Urban Pakistan 2008-09 to 2012-13 ................................................. 64
Table 7.2: Relative share of dimensions/indicators to Adjusted Headcount Ratio – Pakistan
(2008-09 to 2012-13) .............................................................................................................................................................. 66
Table 7.3: Trends in the contribution of dimensions/indicators in the Adjusted Headcount
Ratio by province 2008-09 to 2012-13 ............................................................................................................................ 68
Table 8.1: Zones of Poverty ....................................................................................................................................................................... 73
Table 8.2: Zone wise estimates of poverty 2008-09 to 2012-13 ................................................................................................ 74
Table 8.3: Governance and Public Service Delivery across Zones of Poverty (2012-13) .................................................. 77

Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund & Sustainable Development Policy Institute
Geography of Poverty in Pakistan – 2008-09 to 2012-13: Distribution, Trends and Explanations

List of Maps

Map 3.1: District Level Estimates of Poverty Headcount Ratio 2012-13 .............................................................................. 26
Map 3.2: Contribution to National Headcount Ratio by District 2012-13 ........................................................................... 28
Map 3.3: Change in poverty headcount ratio from 2008-09 to 2012-13 .............................................................................. 30
Map 4.1: Distribution of Intensity of Poverty across Districts of Pakistan 2012-13 ........................................................ 38
Map 4.2: Relationship between Headcount Ratio and Intensity of Poverty 2012-13 ...................................................... 39
Map 5.1: Distribution of Poverty Headcount Ratio and Adjusted Headcount Ratio Across Districts 2012-13 ..... 49
Map 5.2: Change in the Adjusted Headcount Ratio from 2008-09 to 2012-13 .................................................................. 51
Map 6.1: Extreme poverty across districts 2012-13 ...................................................................................................................... 58
Map 6.2: Change in Extreme Poverty 2008-09 to 2012-13 ........................................................................................................ 61
Map 8.1: Classification of districts inot poverty zone and zone level headcount ratio 2012-13 ................................. 75

List of Figures

Figure 5.1: Relationship between Headcount Ratio, Intensity of Poverty, and Adjusted Headcount Ratio 2012-13 ................... 49
Figure 8.1: Model for Wellbeing Regimes .............................................................................................................................................. 87

Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund & Sustainable Development Policy Institute
Geography of Poverty in Pakistan – 2008-09 to 2012-13: Distribution, Trends and Explanations

Acronyms

BHU Basic Health Unit
CPI Consumer Price Index
DG Khan Dera Ghazi Khan
DI Khan Dera Ismail Khan
FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas
HIES Household Income and Expenditure Survey
IRM Institutional Responsibility Matrix
KP Khyber Pakhtunkhwah
MDGs Millennium Development Goals
MICS Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey
MPI Multidimensional Poverty Index
OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
PDHS Pakistan Demography and Health Survey
PPAF Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund
PRA Participatory Rural Appraisals
PSLM Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement
SDGs Sustainable Development Goals
SDPI Sustainable Development Policy Institute
UNDP United Nations Development Programme

Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund & Sustainable Development Policy Institute

Geography of Poverty in Pakistan – 2008-09 to 2012-13: Distribution, Trends and Explanations

Foreward

Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund has been promoting access to opportunities and incomes for
the poorest and most marginalized communities across the country. PPAF’s core values of
democratic governance, transparency and accountability, social inclusion and sustainability
form the heart of our work. We also critically depend upon robust evidence and reliable
knowledge that can enhance our policies and priorities within the vast field of development
and poverty alleviation. This realization has led PPAF to increasingly collaborate with actors
engaged in producing knowledge that generates insights into the dynamics of poverty and
inequality in Pakistan.

PPAF collaborated with the Sustainable Development Policy Institute in 2015 to undertake
this study to look into multidimensional poverty in Pakistan at the national, provincial and
district levels from 2008-09 to 2012-13. It reports the stark rural-urban, inter-provincial and
intra-provincial (district level) inequalities in the levels of poverty. By using four measures of
poverty, headcount ratio, extreme poverty, intensity of poverty, and the index of
multidimensional poverty, it ranks districts on the MPI, and tracks the change in poverty in
these districts over the five years. As districts vary in population density, it also identifies the
districts with the largest number of the poor in Pakistan. This report goes beyond ranking the
districts on poverty measures, and classifies the districts into five distinct zones of poverty:
Extreme Poverty Zone – 1, Extreme Poverty Zone – 2, High Poverty Zone – 1, High Poverty
Zone – 2, and Low Poverty Zone. Such a zoning provides a starting point to develop a typology
of poverty as a lens to conceptualise regional differences and the clustering of poverty across
the country by taking the geographic, economic, social, cultural, political, natural and
environmental factors into account.

This report also offers some of the potential explanations underlying the differential
distribution of various measures of poverty across districts. These include differences in:
population density, governance (access to and quality of public services), industrial
agglomeration, natural resource endowment, patterns of migration, gender relations, and
natural and manmade disasters. The report makes a strong case for the overall development
and poverty reduction policies that need to be prioritised in the districts that have the highest
incidence of poverty as well as those that host the largest number of poor.

Coming out of this understanding of poverty are the pathways to tacking poverty through
prudent policy measures that would ensure horizontal as well as vertical equality in regions,
take people where the opportunities are, and capitalizing on new opportunities. These policy
guidelines will benefit the country’s poor and the Government of Pakistan, as well as PPAF, in
particular, as it strives to contextualize its poverty reduction programme in the country’s
overall economic and development plans while taking cognizance of regional diversity.

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