Geodetic and Geophysical Effects Associated with Seismic and Volcanic Hazards

303 Pages·2004·10.172 MB·English

by  José Fernández (auth.), José Fernández (eds.)

Geodetic and Geophysica l
Effects Associated w i th
Seismic and Volcanic Hazards
Edited by
Jose Fernandez
2004 Springer Basel AG
Reprint from Pure and Applied Geophysics
(PAGEOPH), Volume 161 (2004), No. 7
Editor:
Jose Fernandez
Instituto de Astronomia y Geodesia
Facultad de Ciencias Matematicas
Ciudad Universitaria
Pza. de Ciencias, 3
28040 Madrid
Spain
e-mail: [email protected]
A CIP catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress,
Washington D.C., USA
Bibliographic information published by Die Deutsche Bibliothek:
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ISBN 978-3-7643-7044-2 ISBN 978-3-0348-7897-5 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-0348-7897-5
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© 2004 Springer Basel AG
Originally published by Birkhiiuser Verlag, Basel - Boston - Berlin in 2004
Printed on acid-free paper produced from chlorine-free pulp
ISBN 978-3-7643-7044-2
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Contents
1301 Introduction
J. Fernandez
1305 StressChangesModelledfortheSequenceofStrongEarthquakesintheSouth
Iceland SeismicZone since 1706
F. Roth
1329 3-D Modelling of Campi Flegrei Ground Deformations: Role of Caldera
BoundaryDiscontinuities
F. Beauducel, G. De Natale, F. Obrizzo, F. Pingue
1345 Comparison of Integrated Geodetic Data Models and Satellite Radar
Interferograms to Infer Magma Storage During the 1991-1993 Mt. Etna
Eruption
A. Bonaccorso, E. Sansosti, P. Berardino
1359 GPSMonitoringintheN-WPartoftheVolcanicIslandofTenerife,Canaries,
Spain: Strategyand Results
J. Fernandez, F. J. Gonzalez-Matesanz, J. F. Prieto, G. Rodriguez-Velasco,
A. Staller, A. Alonso-Medina, M. Charco
1379 Far-fieldGravityandTiltSignalsbyLargeEarthquakes:RealorInstrumental
Effects?
G. Berrino, U. Riccardi
1399 StudyofVolcanicSourcesatLongValleyCaldera,California,UsingGravity
Dataand a Genetic Algorithm InversionTechnique
M. Charco, J. Fernandez, K. Tiampo, M. Battaglia, L. Kellogg, J. McClain,
J. B. Rundle
1415 Gravity Changes and Internal Processes: Some Results Obtained from
Observationsat ThreeVolcanoes
G. Jentzsch, A. Weise, C. Rey, C. Gerstenecker
1433 New Results at Mayon, Philippines, from a Joint Inversion ofGravity and
Deformation Measurements
K. F. Tiampo, J. Fernandez, G. Jentzsch, M. Charco, J. B. Rundle
1453 The Interpretation ofGravity Changes and Crustal Deformation in Active
Volcanic Areas
M. Battaglia, P. Segall
1469 Intrusive Mechanisms at Mt. Etna Forerunning the July-August 2001
Eruption from Seismicand Ground Deformation Data
A. Bonaccorso, S. D'Amico, M. Mattia, D. Patane
1489 Methodsfor Evaluation ofGeodeticDataand Seismicity Developed
with Numerical Simulations: Review and Applications
K. F. Tiampo, J. B. Rundle, J. S. Sa Martins, W. Klein, S. McGinnis
1509 A Free BoundaryProblem Related to the Location ofVolcanic Gas Sources
J. I. Diaz, G. Talenti
1519 HighCO LevelsinBoreholesatEITeideVolcanoComplex(Tenerife,Canary
2
Islands): Implications for Volcanic Activity Monitoring
V. Soler, J. A. Castro-Almazan, R. T. Vinas, A. Eff-Darwich,
S. Sanchez-Moral, c. Hillaire-Marcel, I. Farrujia, J. Coello, J. de la Nuez,
M. C. Martin, M. L. Quesada, E. Santana
1533 Simulation of the Seismic Response of Sedimentary Basins with Vertical
Constant-Gradient Velocity for Incident SHWaves
F. Luzon, L. Ramirez, F. J. Sanchez-Sesma, A. Posadas
1549 The Use of Ambient Seismic Noise Measurements for the Estimation of
Surface Soil Effects: The Motril CityCase (Southern Spain)
Z. Al Yuncha, F. Luzon, A. Posadas, J. Martin, G. Alguacil, J. Almendros,
S. Sanchez
1561 Results ofAnalysis ofthe Data ofMicroseismicSurvey at Lanzarote Island,
Canary, Spain
A. V. Gorbatikov, A. V. Kalinina, V. A. Volkov, J. Amoso, R. Vieira, E. Velez
1579 MicrotremorAnalysesatTeideVolcano(CanaryIslands,Spain): Assessment
of Natural Frequencies ofVibration Using Time-dependent Horizontal-to
vertical Spectral Ratios
J. Almendros, F. Luzon, A. Posadas
1597 Tilt Observations in the Normal Mode Frequency Band at the Geodynamic
ObservatoryCuevade los Verdes, Lanzarote
A. V. Kalinina, V. A. Volkov, A. V. Gorbatikov, J. Amoso, R. Vieira,
M. Benavent
©BirkhiiuserVerlag,Basel,2004
Pureappl. geophys. 161 (2004) 1301-1303 I
0033-4553/04/071301-3 Pureand Applied Geophysics
001 1O.1007/s00024-004-2505-6
Geodetic and Geophysical Effects Associated
with Seismic and Volcanic Hazards
Introduction
At present, one of the priorities of research should be to study all the aspects
correlated with natural hazards, in particular those of geological origin, in an
endeavour to reduce the vulnerability associated with them and therefore improve
the quality oflife, especially ifour society at least purports to be a welfare society.
Two ofthe natural hazards ofgeological origin that cause the greatest impact and
pose the biggest risk to society are volcanic and seismic activity (e.g., ISDR, 2002;
EM-DAT, 2003). Consequently, any advances in ascertaining the different physical
processes linked to the several stages associated to these phenomena are highly
important and clearly apply in day-to-day monitoring techniques. The final
implication ofany method capable ofdetecting and even predicting natural hazard
precursory phenomena is that it could help to prevent the damage to people and
property that such events might produce. Achieving this goal, which obviously has
cleareconomicadvantages, involvesascertainingevery possibleaspectofprecursory
phenomena(zonedependency,estimated size,etc.). Theexperimentaland theoretical
aspects ofthis task are highly complex, and must be combined if the best possible
research results are to be attained. Volcanic and seismic hazards are very hard to
predict, and though in recent years significant progress has been made with current
monitoring systems, much remains to be done before such phenomena can be
detected accurately (e.g., RUNDLE et al., 2000; SIGURDSSONet al., 2000; STEIN etal.,
2000; MATSU'URA et al., 2002a,b; ONU; 2003; SPARKS, 2003; USGS, 2003). Both
kind ofphenomena produce effects before, during, and after the activity, and even
between events. On the basis ofthis fact and the high levels ofprecision attainable,
many geophysicalandgeodetictechniqueshaveprovento benecessaryandpowerful
tools in themonitoringofvolcanicandseismicactivity. Applyingsuchtechniques to
routine monitoring of active zones inevitably involves data processing and
subsequent final interpretation ofobserved records. The advent ofnew techniques,
such as the space-based geodetic techniques SAR Interferometry (InSAR) and
continuous GPS, or the use ofcontinuous gases measurements, has provided very
powerfulsourcesofinformationforgainingin-depthknowledgeofthesephenomena,
and at a reasonable cost. However, more sophisticated and realistic mathematical
1302 J. Fernandez Pureappl.geophys.,
models,aswellasmodern techniquesforsolvingtheinverseproblem,arerequiredto
understand thenewandmorecomplex records.
Itwas in this framework that the International ComplutenseSeminar(Seminario
Internacional Complutense) "Geodetic and geophysical effects associated with
seismic and volcanic hazards, Theory and observation." was organized and held at
the School of Mathematics of University Complutense of Madrid from 8 to II,
October 2001. This Special Issue contains eighteen papers, most of which were
presented at the International Seminar, and addresses different topics: geodetic,
geophysical and geochemical effects caused by seismic and volcanic activity;
monitoring ofvolcanic and seismic processes using space and terrestrial techniques;
complementarity ofthese techniques; theoretical modelling ofvolcanic and seismic
processes; inverse problem; interpretation of observations; hazards; seismicity
patterns and application. Other articles presented in the Seminar were published in
the Complutense University journal Fisica de fa Tierra (FERNANDEZ and LUZON,
2002).
The following reviewers are acknowledged for their assistance: F. Amelung,
J.-P. Avouac, P. Baldi, G.W. Bawden, F. Beauducel, R. Bermejo, M.J. Blanco,
M. Bonafede, S. Bonvalot, M. Bouchon, AG. Camacho, B. Capaccioni, V. Cayol,
F. Cornet, A. Correig, P.M. Davis, M. Diament, A. Donnellan, M. Dravinski,
A Folch, J. Fonseca, G.R: Foulger, A Gudmundsson, S. Gurrieri, R. Hanssen,
T. Jahr, P. Keary, J. Langbein, P. Lundgren, R. Madariaga, I. Main, K. Makra,
J. Marti, c.L. Moldoveneanu, F. Mulargia, M. Navarro, D, Pyle, L. Rivera,
R. Scandone, P. Segall, N. Segovia, O. Sotolongo-Costa, R. Stein, K.F. Tiampo,
P.Vincent,G. WadgeandW. Ziirn. Inparticular,Iwould liketo thankF. Cornetfor
his assistance and support in editing this Special Issue. His useful advice and
suggestions are sincerely appreciated.
Iwould like to take this opportunityto thank theVicerrectoratefor International
Relationsofthe ComplutenseUniversityofMadrid for itssupportin organizingthe
International Seminar, and itsentirestaffandpersonnelfor theirsupport beforeand
during the seminar. I am also grateful for the support given by the Institute of
Astronomy and Geodesy, a Spanish Council for Scientific Research-University
ComplutenseofMadridJoint ResearchCentre. Finally,theeditorwishes tothankall
the authors ofthis Special Issue for their contributions.
REFERENCES
EM-OAT(2003),TheOFDAfCREDInternationalDisasterDatabase- www.cred.befemdat-Universite
CatholiquedeLouvain, Brussels, Belgium.
FERNANDEZ, J., and Luz6 , F. (Eds.) (2002), Geodetic and Geophysical Techniques, Models and
Applications, FisicadelaTierra 14.
ISDR(2002), LivingwithRisk: AGlobalReviewofDisasterReductionInitiatives. http://www.unisdr.org/
unisdrfGlobalreport.htm
Vol. 161,2004 GeodeticandGeophysical Effects 1303
MATSU'URA, M., MORA, P., DONNELLAN, A., and YIN, X. C. (EdS.) (2002a), Earthquake Processes:
PhysicalModelling,NumericalSimulationandDataAnalysis.PartI,PureApp!.Geophys. 159(9),1905
2168.
MATSU'URA, M., MORA, P., DONNELLAN, A., and YIN, X. C. (Eds.) (2002b), Earthquake Processes:
PhysicalModelling,NumericalSimulationandDataAnalysis.PartII,PureApp!.Geophys.159(9),2169
2536.
ONU(2003),http://www.unisdr.org
RUNDLE, J. B., TURCOTTE, D. L., and KLEIN, W. (Eds.) (2000), GeoComplexity and the Physics of
Earthquakes, Geophysical MonographSeries,AGU, Washington, 284pp.
SIGURDSSON,H.,HOUGHTON,B.,McNuTT,S.R.,RYMER,H.,andSTIX,J.(Eds.)(2000),Encyclopediaof
Volcanoes,AcademicPress,SanDiego.
SPARKS, R. S. J. (2003),Forecasting VolcanicEruptions,EarthPlanet.Sci. Lett.210,1-15.DOI:IO.1016/
SooI2-82IX(03)00124-9.
STEIN,S.,HAMBURGER,M.,DIXON,T.,andOWEN,S.(2000), UNAVCOConferenceExploresAdvancesin
VolcanicGeodesy, EOSTransactions, AGU81, 121, 126.
USGS(2003), http://www.usgs.gov
Editor
Jose Fernandez
Instituto de Astronomia y Geodesia (CSIC-UCM)
Facultad de Ciencias Matematicas
Ciudad Universitaria
Pza. de Ciencias, 3
28040-Madrid
Spain
E-mail: [email protected]
© BirkhauserVerlag, Basel,2004
Pureappl. geophys. 161 (2004) 1305-1327 I
0033-4553/04/071305-23 Pureand Applied Geophysics
DOl 10.1007/s00024-004-2506-5
Stress Changes Modelled for the Sequence of Strong Earthquakes
in the South Iceland Seismic Zone Since 1706
FRANK ROTH]
Abstract- TheSouthIcelandseismiczoneis, roughlyspeaking,situatedbetweentwosectionsofthe
mid-Atlantic ridge, i.e., the ReykjanesRidgesouthwestofIcelandand theEastern VolcanicZoneonthe
island.Itisatransformzone,whereearthquakesareexpectedtooccuronE-W-trendingleft-lateralshear
faults,equivalenttoconjugate,N-S-oriented right-lateral, ruptureplanes.Infact, earthquakestakeplace
on en-echelon N-S-oriented faults, which is indicated by the distribution of main shock intensities,
aftershocksaswellasbysurfacefaulttraces. Thestressfield continuouslygeneratedinthefaultzoneby
openingoftheadjacentridgesiscomputedandsuperimposedonthestressfieldchangesinducedbyaseries
of13earthquakes(M~6)between1706and2000.Thelevelofthepre-seismicstressfield isanalysedas
wellasthesizeoftheareaunderhighstress.Finally,thepost-seismicstressfieldofJune2000isanalysed,
toseewherehighstressesmighthaveaccumulated.Themodellingindicatesthattheruptureplaneslocated
on separated parallel N-S-striking zones are dense enough to lead to an area-wide stress release by the
seriesofevents.Theobtainedpre-seismicstresslevelformosteventsishighandstablewiththeexception
ofsituationswhenseveralstrongshocksoccuroveratimespanofseveraldays, i.e.,displaytypicalmain
shock-aftershockpatterns.Thesizeofareasunderhighstressasidefrom oftheruptureplane,i.e.,where
noeventoccursatthespecifictime,isofmediumtosmallsize.
Keywords: Earthquakeseries, rifting,shearstress, modelling,dislocations.
1. Introduction
Seismiceventsoften occuraftera period ofquiescence; a pattern that is repeated
several times at a fault zone. Thiscan beexplained by stresses accumulated by plate
motionandreleasedinearthquakes, aseismicsliporinelasticcreep. In the following,
a modelisdescribed thataccounts for platemotionsandearthquakes onIceland. In
the framework ofthe European Community funded project 'Earthquake Prediction
Research in a Natural Laboratory', a model study was performed to obtain models
ofthe stress field and stresschanges in space and time for the South Iceland seismic
zone(SISZ). Thiscomprisedthechangesincrustalstressdueto rifting, earthquakes,
and aseismic movement in the interacting fault system. Usually, for earthquake
hazard estimation, the location, the magnitude and the statistically estimated
1Section: Natural Disasters. Department: Physics ofthe Earth. GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam,
Telegrafenberg,D-14473Potsdam,Germany. E-mail: [email protected]
1306 Frank Roth Pureappl. geophys.,
recurrence period offormer events is used. To improve this, here the rupture length
and width as well as the tectonic setting and the crustal deformation rates are
considered while calculating the space time development of the stress field. The
targets were to achieve a better understanding ofthe distribution of seismicity, its
clustering and migration, and finally to improve the forecasting offuture events in
this populatedandeconomicallyimportantregion ofIceland, i.e., to indicateat least
areas of stress concentrations if the specification of a time window for their
occurrence is not possible. We tried to answer the following questions: Do these
events, placedonparallelfaults, releaseall theenergystoredin the3-Dvolumeofthe
SISZ? Do the earthquakes always take place in areas of high stress? What is the
critical stress level? How large is its variability? Where are the highest stresses at
present?
2. The Tectonic Setting
TheSouthIcelandseismiczone(SISZ)issituatedbetweentwosectionsofthemid
Atlanticridge, theReykjanesridge(RR),especiallyitstransitionalongtheReykjanes
peninsula into the Western Volcanic Zone, and the EasternVolcanic Zone(EVZ; cf.
Fig. la). Even though there is no clearexpression ofan E-W trending fault and the
anglebetweentheSISZandtheneighbouringridgesisfarfrom90°,itisconsideredas
a transform zone (cf. BERGERAT; and ANGELIER, 2000; BJARNASON et al., 1993;
GUOMUNDSSON, 1995, 2000; GUOMUNDSSON and HOMBERG, 1999; SIGMUNDSSON
et al., 1995). Following this hypothesis, left-lateral shear stress isexpected along the
E-W striking zone. This is equivalent to right-lateral shear stress on N-S oriented
rupture planes. In fact, earthquakes seem to occuron N-S trendingen-echelonfaults
as can be seen in Figure Ib (cf., BELARDINELLI et al., 2000; EINARSSON et aI., 1981;
HACKMAN et aI., 1990, and further references there). They are located between the
Hengill-Olfustriplejunction,wheretheRRmeetstheWesternVolcanicZone(WVZ),
andHeklavolcano,intheEVZ(cf.,EINARSSONetal., 1981).Aswefurtherknowfrom
theanalysisofearthquakefault planesolutions(cf. ANGELIERetaI., 1996;BERGERAT
Figure I
(a)MapofIcelandandsurroundingarea. Thicklinesindicatemid-Atlanticridgesegments,asusedinthe
models. The smaller box shows the region ofthe model on the South Iceland seismic zone. The SISZ
extendsapproximatelybetween(21.4°W,64°N)to(l8.8°W,64°N).- RR: Reykjanesridge,RP:Reykjanes
peninsula, KR: Kolbeinsey ridge, WVZ/EVZ: Western/Eastern Volcanic Zone, SISZ: South Iceland
seismiczone, TFZ: Tjornes fracture zone. (b) The South Iceland seismiczone showing mapped surface
breaksand (shaded) regionsin which overhalfofthe buildingsweredestroyed in historicseismicevents
(redrawn after EINARSSON et al., 1981). The north-south dashed line near Vatnafjoll (19.8°W, 63.9°N)
indicates the estimated location of the fault on which the May 25, 1987, earthquake occurred (after
BJAR ASON and EINARSSON, 1991). The structural features and the coastline are after EINARSSO and
SJEMUNDSSON 1987.