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Generalizability Theory PDF

543 Pages·2001·11.573 MB·English
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Statistics for Social Science and Public Policy Advisors: S.E.Fienberg D.Lievesley 1.Rolph Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg GmbH Statistics forSocial Science andPublic Policy Brennan:GeneralizabilityTheory. Devlin/Fienberg/Resnick/Raeder(Eds.):Intelligence, Genes,andSuccess: Scientists RespondtoTheBellCurve. Finkelstein/Ievin:StatisticsforLawyers,SecondEdition. Gastwirth(Ed.):StatisticalScienceintheCourtroom. HandcockiMorris:RelativeDistributionMethodsintheSocialSciences. JohnsoniAlbert: OrdinalDataModeling. Morton/Rolph: PublicPolicyandStatistics:CaseStudiesfromRAND. Zeisel/Kaye:ProveItwithFigures:EmpiricalMethodsinLawandLitigation. Robert L. Brennan Generalizability Theory Springer RobertL. Brennan IowaTestingPrograms UniversityofIowa IowaCity, IA52242-1529 USA Advisors: StephenE.Fienberg DeniseLievesley DepartmentofStatistics Institutefor Statistics CarnegieMellon University Room H.113 Pittsburgh, PA 15213 UNESCO USA 7 Placede Fontenoy 75352 Paris 07 SP France lohn Rolph DepartmentofInformation and Operations Management Graduate SchoolofBusiness UniversityofSouthern California LosAngeles, CA90089 USA LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData Brennan,Robert L. Generalizabilitytheory/Robert L. Brennan p. cm.- (Statisticsforsocial science andpublic policy) Includes bibliographiealreferences(p. )and indexes. I. Psychometries. 2. Psychology-Statisticalmethods. 3. Analysisof variance. 1. Title. H. Series. BF39.B755 2001 150'.1'5I95-dc2I 2001032009 Printedonacid-free paper. ©2001Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg OriginallypublishedbySpringer-VerlagBerlinHeidelbergNewYorkin200I. SoftcoverreprintofthehardcoverIstedition200I All rights reserved.This work may not be translated or copied in whole or in part without the written permission of the publisher (Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg GmbH), except for brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis. Use in connection with any form of information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation,computersoftware,or bysimilarordissimilarmethodology now known or hereafter developedisforbidden. The use of general descriptive names, trade names, trademarks, etc., in this publication, even if the former are not especially identified, is not to be taken as a sign that such names, as understoodbytheTrade Marks and Merchandise MarksAct, may accordinglybeused freely by anyone. ProductionmanagedbyAllanAbrams; manufacturingsupervisedbyJeffrey Taub. Photocomposedcopy preparedbytheauthor using It<TEX. 987 654 3 2 I ISBN978-1-4419-2938-9 ISBN978-1-4757-3456-0(eBook) DOI10.1007/978-1-4757-3456-0 Springer-Verlag NewYork Berlin Heidelberg Amember0/BertelsmannSpringerScience+BusinessMedia GmbH To Cicely Preface In 1972 a monograph by Cronbach, Gleser, Nanda, and Rajaratnam was published entitled The Dependability of Behavioral Measurements. That bookincorporated,systematized,and extended their previousresearchinto what came to be called generalizability theory, which liberalizes classical test theory, in part through the application of analysis of variance proce dures that focusonvariancecomponents.Generalizabilitytheoryisperhaps the most broadly defined measurement model currently in existence, and the Cronbach et al. (1972) treatment ofthe theory represents a major con tribution to psychometrics. However,as Cronbach et al. (1972, p. 3) state, their book is "complexlyorganized and by no meanssimpleto follow" and, ofcourse, it is nearly 30years old. In 1983, ACT, Inc. published my monograph entitled Elements of Gen eralizability Theory,withaslightlyrevised version appearingin 1992.That treatment is considerably less comprehensive than Cronbach et al. (1972) but still detailed enough to convey much ofthe richness ofthe theory and to facilitate its application. However, the 1983/1992 monograph is essen tiallytwodecadesold,it does not cover multivariategeneralizability theory in depth,and it does not incorporate recent developments instatisticsthat bear upon the estimation of variance components. Also, of course, there have been numerous developments in generalizability theory in the last 20 years. This book provides a much more comprehensive and up-to-date treat ment of generalizability theory.It covers allofthe major topics that have been discusscd in generalizability theory, as weIlas some new ones. In ad- viii Preface dition, it provides asynthesisofthose partsofthe statistiealliteraturethat are directly applicable to generalizability theory. The principalintendedaudience ismeasurement practitionersand upper level graduate students in the behavioral and social sciences, particularly education and psychology.Generalizability theory has broader applicabil ity, however. Indeed, it might be used in virtually any field that attends to measurements and their errors. Readers willbenefit from some familiar ity with classieal test theory and analysis of variance, but the treatment of most topics does not presume specific background. In particular, vari ance components are a central focus of generalizability theory, but it is not assumed that readers are familiar with them or with procedures for estimating them. Although the statistieal aspects of generalizability theory are undeni ably important,perhaps the most distinguishingfeature ofthe theory isits conceptual framework, whieh permits a multifaceted perspective on mea surement error and its components. What makes generalizability theory both challenging and useful is that it marries this rieh conceptual frame work with powerful, but sometimes complicated, statistieal procedures. This book gives substantial attention to both aspects of generalizability theory-the conceptual framework and the statistieal machinery. However, the book per seisneither a treatise on the philosophy ofmeasurement, nor a textbook on statistieal procedures. Rather, it integrates those parts of both topics that bear upon generalizability theory. Precursors to generalizability theory are evident in papers written as long aga as the 1930s.However,generalizability theory per se is relatively new, it is evolving, and there are a few somewhat different perspectives on the theory. Most ofthese perspectives are complementary, or might be viewedasspecial casesorextensions.Evenso,Ijudgedit necessary to adopt one principal perspective and maintain it throughout this book. That per spective is closelyaligned with Cronbach et al. (1972), but there are some occasional differences. For example, except for the last chapter, this book does not emphasize regressed score estimates of universe scores nearly as muchas Cronbach et al. (1972).Also,thereare somenotationaldifferences, especially in those chapters that treat multivariate generalizability theory. There are three sets ofchapters in this book. They are ordered in terms of increasing complexity. The fundamentals of univariate generalizability theory are contained in Chapters 1to 4. They might be used as part of a graduate--levelcourseinadvanced measurement.Additional, morechalleng ingtopies in univariatetheoryare coveredin Chapters 5to 8,and Chapters 9to 12provide myownperspectiveon multivariate generalizabilitytheory. The treatment of multivariate generalizability theory is inspired by the workof Cronbach et al. (1972), but there are notieeable differencesin em phasis, coverage, and notational conventions. I have tried to provide the reader with different ways of thinking about multivariate generalizability theory,and I have tried to illustrate its similarities to and differencesfrom Preface IX univariate theory. An important goal of this book is to make multivariate generalizability theory more accessible to practitioners. More consideration is given to reliability-likecoefficients than is necessi tated by the theory. However, in my experience, many students and mea surement practitioners have great difficulty, at least initially, in appreciat ing the applicability and usefulness of generalizability theory unless they can relate some of its results to classical reliability coefficients. For this reason, such coefficients are actively considered, although the magnitudes of variance components, and particularly error variances,are clearly more important. Manyofthetopicscoveredherecould betreated usingmatrixoperators. With the exception of one appendix, however, matrix operators are not employed, because doingso would render the content inaccessible to many students and practitioners who might benefit from the theory. I am grateful to ACT, Inc., for permitting me to use parts of Brennan (1992a). That monograph clearly infiuenced my treatment of Chapters 2 to 5 and several appendices. Also, Chapter 1is largely a revised version of Brennan (1992b) used with the permission of the publisher, the National Council on Measurement in Education, and parts of Section 5.4 are from Brennan (1998) used with permission of the publisher, Sage. I am also grateful to ACT, Inc. for permitting me access to ACT Assessment data used for various multivariate examples in the later chapters of this book, toSuzanneLanefor permitting meto usethe QUASAR data referenced in Section 5.4, to Clare Kreiter for the opportunity to analyze data discussed in Section 8.3, and to Judy Ru at Iowa Testing Programs (ITP) for her assistance with ITP data. I especiallywant to acknowledgethe considerablebenefit I havereceived over the last 30 years from numerous communications with Lee Cronbach. Also, I am particularly gratefulto Michael Kane, whose research,insights, criticisms, and support have contributed greatly to my own thinking, re search, and writings about generalizability theory. I have benefited as weil from joint research with Xiaohong Gao, especially in the area of perfor mance assessments. Others who have infiuenced my workinclude David Jarjoura, Joe Crick, Richard Shavelson, Noreen Webb, Gerald Gillmore, and Dean Colton. Fi nally,Iwant to thank mystudents, especiallyWon-Chan Lee,Scott Bishop, Guemin Lee, Dong-In Kim, Janet Mee, Ping Yin, and Steven Rattenborg. They have assisted me in numerous ways. In particular, their questions and comments have often infiuenced how I think about and present the theory. My thanks to all of them. Finally, I am grateful to my secretary, Sue Wollrab,for her help in preparing the manuscript. Iowa City, IA Robert L. Brennan January, 2001 Contents Preface vii Principal Notational Conventions xix 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Framework of Generalizability Theory . . . . . . . . . . .. 4 1.1.1 Universe of Admissible Observations and G Studies. 5 1.1.2 Infinite Universe of Generalization and D Studies .. 8 1.1.3 Different Designs and/or Universesof Generalization 13 1.1.4 Other Issues and Applications . 17 1.2 Overview of Book . 18 1.3 Exercises .... . 19 2 Single-Facet Designs 21 2.1 G Study p x i Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 2.2 G Study Variance Components for p x i Design 24 2.2.1 Estimating Variance Components . 25 2.2.2 Synthetic Data Example . 28 2.3 D Studies for the p x I Design 29 2.3.1 Error Variances . . . . . . 31 2.3.2 Coefficients.... .... 34 2.3.3 Synthetic Data Example . 35

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