GCC Hydrocarbon Economies and COVID: Old Trends, New Realities

329 Pages·2023·3.591 MB·English

by  Nikolay Kozhanov, Karen Young, Jalal Qanas

GCC Hydrocarbon
Economies and
COVID
Old Trends, New Realities
Edited by
Nikolay Kozhanov · Karen Young ·
Jalal Qanas
GCC Hydrocarbon Economies and COVID
Nikolay Kozhanov · Karen Young ·
Jalal Qanas
Editors
GCC
Hydrocarbon
Economies
and COVID
Old Trends, New Realities
Editors
Nikolay Kozhanov Karen Young
Gulf Studies Center Center on Global Energy Policy
Qatar University Columbia University
Doha, Qatar New York, NY, USA
Jalal Qanas
College of Business and Economics
Qatar University
Doha, Qatar
ISBN 978-981-19-5461-0 ISBN 978-981-19-5462-7 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-5462-7
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer
Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the
Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights
of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction
on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and
retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology
now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are
exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and
information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication.
Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied,
with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have
been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published
maps and institutional affiliations.
Cover credit: © Alex Linch shutterstock.com
This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature
Singapore Pte Ltd.
The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore
189721, Singapore
A
cknowledgments
The editors would like to thank all the authors involved in this book as
well as the Gulf Studies Center at Qatar University that supported this
project and made it possible.
v
c
ontents
1 Introduction 1
Nikolay Kozhanov
2 Challenges Facing the Gulf Petroleum Industry:
Covid-19, New Technologies, Energy Transition 13
Naji Abi-Aad and Nikolay Kozhanov
2.1 Introduction 13
2.2 The Petroleum Industry & New Technologies:
More Production… 14
2.3 .… but Less Demand! 16
2.4 Opportunity for Reforms 17
2.5 The Peak of Oil Is Inevitable, but Not Near 20
2.6 Keep Calm and Pump Oil 22
2.7 The Gulf Goes “Green” 24
2.8 It Is Not Going to Be That Simple 26
2.9 Road Ahead 27
Bibliography 28
3 Qatar’s Energy Sector in the Post-COVID Era 31
Steven Wright
3.1 The Emergence of Qatar as a Global LNG Power:
A Brief History 33
3.2 Navigating Regional Political and Economic Stability 36
vii
viii CONTENTS
3.3 A New Era of Great Power Engagement:
The Rise of China 39
3.4 The Context of Regional Relations: The
Post-Blockade Era 42
3.5 Global Observations of the LNG Sector 44
3.6 Global Carbon–Neutral Goals and a Blue
Ammonia Future 48
3.7 Concluding Observations 52
References 53
4 GCC Renewable Energy Development Amid COVID-19
Pandemic 57
Aisha Al-Sarihi, Noura Mansouri, and Sarah Al-Otaibi
4.1 Introduction 57
4.2 Why Scaling up the Deployment of Renewable Energy
Technologies 59
4.3 The State of Renewable Energy in the Six GCC States
Pre-COVID-19 Pandemic 63
4.4 COVID-19 Pandemic and the Gulf Renewable
Energy 71
4.5 Challenges Ahead 79
4.6 Conclusions and Policy Insights 84
References 86
5 The Covid Response in the GCC: Making a Durable
Economic Policy Agenda 91
Karen Young
5.1 The Economic Recovery Outlook 91
5.2 Economic Recovery Mechanisms—Some
Orthodoxy and Discipline 97
5.3 The Saudi Economy: The Reopening and Recovery 103
5.4 After Covid, What Comes Next? 105
Bibliography 107
6 Dealing with the Challenges: GCC Institutional
Responses to the Covid-19 and Arab Spring 111
Luciano Zaccara and Nesibe Hicret Battaloglu
6.1 Introduction 111
6.2 The GCC Social Institutions and the Arab Spring 114
CONTENTS ix
6.3 The GCC and the Covid-19 Pandemic
Social Implications 117
6.4 The Impact of Covid-19 on the GCC Foreign Policies 127
6.5 Conclusions 133
Bibliography 135
7 Gulf’s Migrant Workers Amidst Covid-19 and Workforce
Nationalization: A Focus on Qatar’s Social Protection
Systems 141
Lakshmi Venugopal Menon
7.1 Seven Phases of Migration to the Gulf 143
7.2 Covid-19 in the GCC: Patterns, Policies, Responses,
and Health Care Policies 148
7.3 The Intensification of Workforce
Nationalization Policies 152
7.4 Social Protection Systems—Where Do
They Stand in Qatar? 159
7.5 A Fundamental Issue in Perception 164
7.6 Reconciling Rights of Migrants and Workforce
Nationalization: What Can Be Done? 165
7.7 Conclusion 168
Bibliography 169
8 Climate Change and the GCC: Economic and
Environmental Impact 173
Greg Shapland
8.1 The Impact of the Covid Pandemic on
GCC Countries’ Adaptation to Climate Change 173
8.2 The Likely Direct Impacts of Climate
Change on GCC Countries 174
8.3 Higher Temperatures and Humidity 175
8.4 Reduced and More Variable Precipitation,
for Most of the GCC 179
8.5 Sea-Level Rise (SLR) and Storm Surges 180
8.6 Cyclones 183
8.7 Higher Sea-Surface Temperatures (SSTs)
and More Dust-Storms and Sand-Storms 184
8.8 The Energy Transition, the Demand for
Hydrocarbons and the Availability of Forex 185
x CONTENTS
8.9 The Possible Impact of Climate Change on Food
Security in GCC Countries 188
8.10 How Can GCC Countries Adapt to the Effects
of Climate Change? 190
8.11 Official Adaptation Strategies 190
8.12 How GCC States Can Adapt to Climate Change 191
8.13 Conclusions 195
Bibliography 196
9 Gulf Energy Security During the COVID-19: From the
Security of Supply to the Security of Demand 201
Nikolay Kozhanov
9.1 Introduction 201
9.2 Energy Security Concept and the GCC Oil
Producers 202
9.3 Global Oil Market and GCC Energy Security
after the Abqaiq Incident 209
9.4 COVID-19 and the Issue of the GCC Energy
Security 215
9.5 Conclusion 220
Bibliography 222
10 Energy Security and Diplomacy: A Double-Edged
Sword. The Case Study of Saudi Arabia and Iran 225
Mahjoob Zweiri, Farah Al Qawasmi, and
Thomas Bonnie James
10.1 Introduction 225
10.2 Understanding the Role of Energy Security
on State Relationships: The Case Study of
Iran and Saudi Arabia 227
10.3 Iran and Saudi Arabia: A Game of Tug-of-Wars 233
10.4 How Did Covid-19 Influence Iran and Saudi
Arabia? The Effects of Covid-19 on Iran 237
10.5 Covid Impact on the Global Energy Market 239
10.6 Reimagining the Arabian Gulf 241
10.7 Is There a Future of Peace and Diplomacy Between the
Two States? 242
CONTENTS xi
10.8 Conclusion 244
Bibliography 247
11 Oil Market Recovery and the Future of OPEC+:
Exit the Bear? 249
Colby Connelly
11.1 Introduction 249
11.2 OPEC and Non-OPEC Cooperation: From 2016 Till
Present 252
11.3 Lagging OPEC+ Production 256
11.4 Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Enter the Bear 264
11.5 Prospects for Future OPEC+ Cooperation 269
11.6 Conclusion 275
Bibliography 276
12 China and the Gulf States: Economic Relationship,
Challenges and Future 283
Jalal Qanas
12.1 Introduction 283
12.2 Sino-GCC Relations: Growing Interdependency 284
12.3 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) 286
12.4 Limitations: Can Pax Sinica Replace Pax Americana
in the New Future? 292
12.5 Concerns over Possible Debt Trap 297
12.6 China and GCC—Free Trade Agreement 299
12.7 Factors Driving China–GCC Trade Relations 300
12.8 China–GCC Relations—A Critical Analysis 303
12.9 US Pressure and Sino-GCC Relations 307
12.10 Conclusion 308
Bibliography 309
Index 311