Gas and Oil Reliability Engineering. Modeling and Analysis

795 Pages·2016·56.485 MB·English

by  Eduardo Calixto

Gas and Oil Reliability
Engineering
Modeling and Analysis
Second Edition
Dr. Eduardo Calixto
Federal Fluminense University - LATEC
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To my parents,
Jose de Arimatea and Maria Auxiliadora Calixto
and to my son,
Leonardo Calixto
Preface
The oil and gas industry is a competitive market that requires high-performance assets that can be
translated into high operational availability, production efficiency, reliability, and maintainability of
all assets. Nowadays, to achievesuch high performance, itis necessary toextendthisexpectation to
vendors.Thereforereliabilityengineering toolsareveryimportanttothisindustryandhavecontrib-
uted greatly toits success during the last severaldecades.
Reliabilityengineeringshouldbeappliedsystematicallyintheoilandgasindustrytosupportthe
assets to achieveand maintain high performance. To meet this goal, it is necessary to establish the
reliabilitymanagementprogram,whichmuststartattheverybeginningoftheassetlifecyclephase
andmustbepartofdailyoperations.Thereliabilitymanagementprogramincludestheapplicationof
differentqualitativeandquantitativemethodsthroughouttheassetlifecyclesuchasALT (acceler-
atedlifetest),HALT(highacceleratedlifetest),RGA(reliabilitygrowthanalysis),DFMEA(design
failure mode and effects analysis), PFMEA (process failure mode and effects analysis), SFMEA
(systemfailuremodeandeffectsanalysis),WA(warrantyanalysis),FRACAS(failurereportanalysis
andcorrectionactionssystem),PDA(probabilisticdegradationanalysis),RCM(reliability-centered
maintenance), RBI (risk-based inspection), ReBI (reliability-based inspection), ReGBI (reliability
growth-based inspection), ORT (optimum replacement time), RAM (reliability, availability, and
maintainability) analysis, FTA (fault tree analysis), ETA (event tree analysis), LOPA (layers of
protection analysis),SIL (safety integrity level)analysis, bowtie analysis,HRA(humanreliability
analysis), and APO (asset performance optimization).
Indeed,forcompanieswithassetssuchasoperationalplants,platforms,andotherfacilities,quan-
titative and qualitative techniques are required during different phases of the life cycle. In project
(concept, predesign, and design) and operational phases, DFMEA, SFMEA, RCM, RBI, WA,
FRACAS, ReBI, ReGBI, ORT, RAM, APO, and HRA can be applied to support decisions for
achieving and maintaining high performance in plant facilities and equipment. In addition, safety
is one of the most important performance aspects of the oil and gas industry, and quantitative risk
analysis methods, such as FTA, ETA, LOPA, SIL, and bow tie analysis, as well as qualitative risk
analysis such as HAZOP, HAZID, PHA, and FMEA, can be implemented during the project
(concept, predesign, and design) and operational phases.
Moreover, when equipment is being developed by vendors, ALT, HALT, RGA, and DFMEA are
highly important for supporting productdevelopment and achieving the performance targets defined
in WA byoil and gas companies.
This book discusses all of these techniques and includes examples applied to the oil and gas
industry. In addition, reliability engineering program implementation as well as asset management
is introduced with examples andcase studies.
Asset management aims to drive action to achieve high-performance assets during the life cycle
phases.Assetmanagementisintegratedwiththecompany’sstrategy,businessplan,andperformance
atallorganizationlevels.Thereforereliabilityengineeringplaysanimportantroleinanassetmanage-
ment program that encompasses asset integrity and integrated logistic support programs, as will be
described inthis book.
Topresentallreliabilityengineeringmethodsaswellasreliabilityengineeringprogramandasset
management concepts and applications, this book is organizedintodifferent chapters asfollows.
xv
xvi Preface
Chapter1:Themainobjectiveoflifetimedataanalysis(LDA)istopredictthereliabilityandfail-
urerateforaspecificperiodoftimebasedonPDF(probabilitydensityfunction)parameters.Therefore
thedescriptionofhistoricalfailureandrepairdata,thetypeofdata(complete,censored,andinterval),
andhowtoobtaininformationfromthespecialistsarerelevantandwillbediscussed.SuchPDFplots
the reliability and failure rate function. However, the main issuewhen performing LDA is to define
which PDF fits better with the historical data. Thus different goodness of fit methods, such as the
plot, rank regression, maximum likelihood, chi square, SmirnoveKolmogorov, and Crame´revon
Mises are discussed in this chapter with examples applied to the oil and gas industry. In addition,
the different types of PDFs, such as exponential, Weibull, lognormal, loglogistic, normal, logistic,
Gumbel,gamma,andR,generalizedGama,Rayleigh,andtheirparametercharacteristics,arealsodis-
cussedincludingtheimportanceofconfidencelimitsbasedontheFishermatrixconcept.Attheendof
thischapter,LDAcasestudiesappliedtooilandgasequipmentsuchaspumps,valves,compressors,
heatexchangers,pipelines,andfurnacesarepresentedtoclarifytheconceptofLDAinrealapplica-
tionsbased onsoftware tools.
Chapter2:Thischapterdescribestheimportanceofqualitative(HALTandHASS)andquantitative
(ALT, RGA, and PDA) reliability engineering methods to understand product weakness under high
operationalstressandalsotopredictreliabilityconcerningstressfactorsthatinfluenceequipmentper-
formance.Duringthedesignphase,ALT,HALT,HASS,andRGAareappliedtopredictassetfailures
and reliability in early design stages as well as to support equipment development and performance
target achievement. The PDA is applied during the operation phase to predict equipment reliability
based on equipment degradation caused by failure cumulative effects. The ALT methodology will
bedescribedbasedondifferentmethodssuchasArrhenius,Eyring,inversepowerlaw,temperaturee
humidity,temperatureenonthermal,generalloglinear,proportionalhazardmodel,andthecumulative
risk model. In addition, reliability growth analysis methodology will also be described based on
different methods such as Duane, CroweAMSAA (NHPP), LloydeLipow, Gompertz, logistic,
Crowextended,andpowerlaw.ThePDAmethodologywillpresentdifferentmethodssuchaslinear,
exponential, power, logarithmic, and the phase exponential model. All these methods are described
mathematically with examplesand graphs applied tothe oil andgasindustry.
Chapter3:ThischapterbeginswiththeconceptsoffailureanddifferentFMEAexamples.Further-
more,the qualitativeapproach todefinecriticalequipment based ondifferent criteria such assafety,
environment, production, and cost will be discussed. To clarify the different maintenance strategies
appliedtoRCMtheconceptofpreventivemaintenanceaswellasdifferenttypesofpredictivemain-
tenancewillbeintroducedwithexamples.Theaimofthischapteristointroducereliabilityengineer-
ing,qualitativemethodsrelatedtomaintenancesuchasFMEA,RCM,andRBIaswellasquantitative
methodssuchasReBI,RGBI,andORT.Inaddition,FRACASandWAwillbediscussedasabaseline
forareliabilitydatabasetoenabletheLDAdiscussedinChapter1.Attheendofthechapter,several
FMEA,RCM,andRBIcasestudieswillbedemonstratedrelatedtothemaincriticalequipmentforthe
oilandgasindustrysuchaspumps,valves,compressors,vessels,pipelines,tanks,andflexiblerisers.
Chapter4:Theaimofthischapteristodemonstratetheconceptofsensors,performanceindexes
such as reliability, availability, and production efficiency as well as the approach to predict such
performance indexes based on RAM methodology. Therefore RAM analysis is the basis of complex
system performance analysis. To demonstrate such methodology, RAM analysis steps such as scope
definition, LDA, modeling, simulation, critical analysis, sensitivity analysis, and conclusions will
be discussed. In fact, RAM analysis simulates the system behavior in terms of subsystem and
Preface xvii
equipmentfailuresoverthelifecycle.Toperformsuchsimulationthereliabilityblockdiagrammodel
is necessary, as will be demonstrated. In addition, rather than predicting the performance index the
main object of RAM analysis is to analyze the influence of external factors on system performance,
suchaslogistics,spareparts,redundancyconfiguration,aswellastheeffectofpreventivemaintenance
inperformance indexes.Each ofsuch externalfactor influences willbedemonstrated byexample in
this chapter. Moreover, to predict the necessary performance improvement, improvement allocation
andoptimizationconceptswillbediscussed.Thechapterwillpresent10differentcasestudiesapplied
to oiland gas onshore andoffshoreassets during projects and the operation phase.
Chapter5:ThischapteraimstopresentdifferentHRAstomodelhumanerrorduringthedifferent
asset life cycles, such as design, manufacturing, commissioning, operation, as well as transportation
andmaintenance.Inadditiontohumanerrorprobabilityassessment,thehumanperformancefactors
will be analyzed to minimize the factors that influence human error such as internal (psychological,
social, physical, and mental) and external (technology, procedures, ergonomic, and layout). HRA
can be performed by different methods such as THERP (technique for human error rate prediction),
OAT (operator action tree), ASEP (accident sequence evaluation program), HEART (human error
assessment reduction technique), STAHR (social technical analysis of human reliability), SPAR-H
(standardized plant analysis risk human reliability), SLIM (success likelihood index method),
SHERPA (systematic human error reduction and prediction approach), and Bayesian networks. The
advantagesanddisadvantagesofimplementingeachHRAmethodwillalsobediscussed.Inaddition,
casestudiesappliedtosafety,operational,andmaintenancerelatedtotheoilandgasindustrywillbe
presented.
Chapter6:Thischapteraimstopresenttheconceptofriskmanagementovertheassetlifecycle
basedonhazardidentification,riskanalysis,riskevaluation,andriskmitigation.Toproceedwiththe
riskanalysis,differentqualitativeandquantitativemethodswillbepresentedwithexamplesapplied
totheoilandgasindustry.QualitativeriskmethodssuchasHAZOP,HAZID,PHA,andFMEAwill
demonstrate examples applied to the oil and gas industry to identify different types of hazard and
analyze the risk qualitatively. In addition, quantitative risk analysis methods applied to predict the
risk,suchasFTA,ETA,LOPA,SIL,andbowtieanalysis,willbepresentedwithoilandgasexam-
ples. At the end, casestudies will demonstratethedifferentcombinations ofqualitativeandquanti-
tative risk methods as well as the combination of risk analysis with other methods such as RAM
analysis and HRA.
Chapter7:Theaimofthischapteristodiscusstheprocessofbuildingupasuccessfulreliability
engineering program in the oil and gas industry. In this way, the first step will be to understand the
competitiveness of the oil and gas industry based on different factors such as customers, suppliers,
competitors,regulators,andsubstituteproducts.Afurtherstepwillbetounderstandtheapplication
of different reliability methods over enterprises’ life cycles. Once the importance of each method
application is understood, the successful factors that influence reliability engineering programs,
suchasculture,organizationalframework,resource,andworkroutine,willbepresented.Inaddition,
10reliabilityengineeringpitfallswillbepresentedtoavoidcommonmistakesthat havebeenmade
fordifferentorganizationsaroundtheword.Despitetheseimportantfactors,therearemanybarriers
toimplementingreliabilityengineeringprogramsinmanyorganizations,suchasleaderprofile,fast
food culture, and a standard approach. Finally, successful cases of reliability engineering organiza-
tionsaswellasorganizationsthatpromotereliabilityengineeringaroundtheworld,includingBayer,
USNRC,ESRA,ESReDA,SINTEF,KarlsruheInstituteTechnology,IndianInstituteofTechnology
xviii Preface
Kharagpur, University of Strathclyde Business School, and University of Stavanger, will be
presented.
Chapter 8:Theaim ofthischapter is tointroduce the conceptofasset managementby including
reliability engineering, asset integritymanagement, and integrated logistics support programs. Asset
management hasthemainobjectiveofsupportingtheassetstoachievehighperformance.Therefore
differentmethodsbasedonreliabilityengineering,riskmanagement,humanreliability,aswellaslife
cyclecostmustbeperformedinadifferentassetlifecycleasdefinedbytheassetmanagementplan.
The chapter also presents standards such as PAS 55 and ISO 5500 and additional references such as
KP3assetintegrityprogramandtheconceptsofJP886standardsrelatedtoILS.Moreover,thechapter
proposesthequantitativeassetmanagementevaluationmethodologybasedonISO55000andquality
awardmethodology.Toclarifytheassetmanagementconcepts,fourcasestudiesrelatedtoassetman-
agement are presented. The first one describes asset integrity management during the design phase
applied to a subsea asset. The second case study describes the recovery sulfur plant asset integrity
implementationduringthepredesignphase.Thethirdcasestudydescribestheintegratedlogisticssup-
port program applied during the design phase for subsea assets. The fourth case study describes an
asset management program applied to anintegrated offshore system.
Thebenefitsofthis bookinclude:
• Understandinghowtousefailureandrepairhistoricaldatatopredictreliabilitybasedonexamples
andcase studies;
• Understanding howtopredict reliabilityduring the designphase, consideringstressorfactorsas
well ashowtoimprovesuch reliability;
• Predicting reliabilitybased onthe cumulativeeffect offailures;
• Understandingtheconceptofdifferentmethodsappliedtorepairableequipmentandsystemswith
severalexamplesof FMEA, RCM, andRBI applied tothe oil and gas industry;
• Predicting andoptimizing complexasset performance, such asrefineryplants, utility facilities,
subsea, and platform,considering different factors such as reliability, maintainability, preventive
maintenance, spare parts, logistics, andlife cyclecost;
• UnderstandingtheapplicationofHRAbyconsideringtheinfluenceofhumanerroronassetsafety,
operation, and maintenancetaskperformance;
• Understandingtheeffectofsafetyonassetperformancebyconsideringtherelationbetweensafety,
reliability, and maintenance;
• Understanding the importanceof areliability program over the assetlife cycleas well asthe
applicationofdifferentreliabilityengineeringmethodsindifferentassetphases:the10reliability
pitfalls aswell asthe reliability program barrierswill also be clearly understood;
• Understanding the asset management program concepts andthe relation of asset management to
other important programs such as reliabilityengineering, assetintegrity,and integrated logistic
support.
The new edition of this book is based on the author’s knowledge and experience over the past
13yearsasareliabilityengineerintheoilandgasindustrybyapplyingconsultantservicesandpro-
posingsolutionsfordifferentoilandgascompaniesfromtheUnitedStates,SouthAmerica,Europe,
Asia, Africa, Australia, and the Middle East.
Acknowledgment
ThankyoutomymastersfromFluminenseFederalUniversity,GilsonBritoAlvesLimaandOswaldo
Luiz Gonc¸alvesQuelhas, for supporting and sponsoring myengineering career.
I also thank the following teammates: Joao Marcus Sampaio Gueiros, Jr., Carlos Daniel, Wilson
Alves dos Santos, Geraldo Alves, Cid Atusi, Darlene Paulo Barbosa, Leonardo Muniz Carneiro,
Aneil Souza, Michael Sabat, Carlos Hanriot, Willyane Castro, Paulo Ricardo, Ronaldo Priante,
Oswaldo Martins, Istone R., Alexandre Nunes, Milton Igino, Jose Luiz Nunes, Fernando Sigiliao,
Joao Eustaquio, Carlos Eustaquio Soukef, Fabio Franca, Nelmo Furtado, Carlos Andre, Delton
Correa, Miguel Ricardo, Rafael Ribeiro, Marcio Bonfa, Jorge Fernandes, Claudio Garcia, Joseane
Garcia, Paulo Rijo, Manoel Coelho, Antoˆnio Ribeiro Louzana, Wilson Antunes, Jr., Marco
Evangelista,MarianoPacholok,MauricioRequiao,RicardoAlexandre,AmauridosSantosCardoso,
Helio Goes, Manoel Jose Gomez, Romeu Wachburger, Gustavo de Carvalho, Jorge Luiz Ventura,
Douglas Tirapani, Borges Ezequiel, Adelci Menezes, Aldo Silvestre, Tony Lisias, Frederico Vieira,
Mario Barros, Paulo Rosemberg, Francisco Bezerra, Eduardo Guerra, William Frederic Schmitt,
Antonio Carlos Freitas Araujo, Luiz Eduardo Lopes, Gustavo Furtado, Emerson Vilela, Carlos
Frederico Eira, Marcelo Ramos, Atila R., and Professor Carlos Amadeu Palerosi for supporting
my reliability analysis over the years.
Forcontributingtothisbookandtomyreliabilityengineeringcareer,IthankJoaoMarcusSampaio
Gueiros,Jr.fromPetrobras,ClaudioSpanofromReliasoftBrazil,CidAugustofromReliasoftBrazil,
PauliAdrianodeAmadaGarciafromFluminenseFederalUniversity,andPauloRenatoAlvesFirmino
from UFRPE.
IhavealsotothankStephenLauriefromFronticaBusinessSolutions(UK),DavidThompsonfrom
RAMsoftLtd.(UK),DougOgdenfromReliasoftCorporation(USA),YzakBotfromBQRReliability
Ltd.(Israel),andAndrzejKozakfromUDT,SafetyInspectionOffice(Poland)foralltheirsupporton
my internationalcareer asa reliabilityengineer.
Tomy wife Isabel Katrin Calixto: thankyou for all yoursupportduring this time.
xix