Futures of food provision

22 Pages·2016·1.02 MB·English

Futures of food provision
Four possible scenarios for the
AgriFood industry
€ 1,264
billion
spent on food and
drink in EU
See page 6
18
million
employees working in
European AgriFood
industry
See page 6
100%
rise in milk
consumption in China
in 6 years time
See page 10
www.pwc.nl/agrifood
Executive Summary
Fünf Megatrends beeinflussen die gesamte Wertschöpfungs kette Technologien auch für die Schaffung weit verzweigter globaler
der Agrifood Industrie. Wo immer diese aufeinandertreffen, Versorgungsketten, über die große Mengen an Nahrungsmitteln
ist mit gravierenden Folgen und Störungen in der Branche zu auf umweltfreundliche Weise geliefert werden können. Der
rechnen. Zwei Einflussfaktoren betreffen die Agrifood Industrie Indoor­Anbau spielt dabei eine wesentliche Rolle. In einer
insbesondere: Wird es möglich sein, die Probleme, welche vergleichsweise stark fragmentierten Branche finden sich
aus dem Klimawandel und der Verkanppung von Ressourcen zahlreiche größere und kleinere Akteure. Die Preise wie auch
resultieren, durch Technologien zu lösen? Und: Wie wird sich die Gewinnmargen innerhalb der Lieferkette steigen leicht an.
die Nachfrage der Konsumenten in den nächsten zehn Jahren Gewinner sind diejenigen, denen es gelingt, einen klaren Nutzen
weltweit verändern? Stellt man die Implikationen dieser beiden für die Konsumenten zu schaffen und ihre Lieferkette für die
Unsicherheitsfaktoren anhand zweier Achsen dar, so ergibt dies Konsumenten nachvollziehbar zu machen.
eine Matrix mit vier möglichen Zukunftsszenarien. Wir haben
diese vier Szenarien betrachtet, um herauszufinden, wie sich die Im Szenario „Two-tier production“ interessieren sich die
Agrifood Industrie in Zukunft entwickeln könnte. Konsumenten weltweit ebenfalls für mehr nachhaltig produzierte
und gesunde Bio­Lebensmittel. Doch Klimawandel und
Im Szenario „Food for all“ verbreitet sich der auf Fleisch, knappe Ressourcen wirken sich verstärkt auf die weltweite
Getreide, Milch und Softdrinks basierende westliche Ernährungs­ Lebensmittelproduktion aus und die Preise steigen. Für diejenigen,
stil weltweit. Die Erträge werden durch agrartechnische die es sich leisten können, gewinnt die Mikroproduktion
Maßnahmen, Smart Farming und Präzisions landwirtschaft an Bedeutung: gesunde Lebensmittel von regionalen und
gesteigert und versorgen die Welt bevölkerung reichlich mit Nischenanbietern sowie aus Eigenanbau. Für alle anderen wird
Nahrung. Das Überangebot lässt die Lebensmittel preise sinken. es Standardlösungen geben. Die Agrar lebensmittel produzenten
Übernahmen in bislang nicht gekanntem Ausmaß treiben die werden einen stark differenzierten Markt bilden, in dem sich
Konsolidierung der Agrifood Industrie voran. Die vertikale diverse multinationale Konzerne ebenso finden wie zahlreiche
Integration führt durch zunehmend komplexe Lieferketten zu regionale und Nischenanbieter. Gewinner werden diejenigen
Effizienz gewinnen. Die aus diesem Prozess hervorgehenden regionalen und Nischenanbieter sein, die Kooperationen offen
multinationalen Konzerne kontrollieren die Lieferketten und gegenüberstehen, sowie größere Unternehmen, die ihr Angebot
können den weltweiten Lebensmittelbedarf steuern. Gewinner dank verschiedener Lieferketten und Bezugsquellen stark
in diesem Szenario werden die größten und effizientesten diversifizieren.
Unternehmen sein.
Im Szenario „Renationalisation“ schließlich ist die Lebensmittel­
Im Szenario „Leading the diversified field“ erzielen nachhaltig versorgung infolge von Klimawandel und Ressourcen knappheit
produzierte und gesunde Biolebensmittel einen Marktanteil, hochgradig volatil. Da die Mehrheit der Bevölkerung nach
der umso höher ist, je mehr sich die Konsumenten darüber stark protein­ und kalorienhaltigen Nahrungsmitteln verlangt,
definieren, wie sie essen. Die Hersteller von Lebensmitteln intensiviert sich der Wettbewerb. Es kann dazu kommen,
versorgen die Weltbevölkerung dank neuer Technologien mit dass Lebensmittel teuer und zugleich qualitativ minderwertig
ökologischen und gesunden Lebensmitteln und nutzen neue werden. Die Lebensmittelproduzenten in vielen ärmeren
2 PwC
Ländern werden zu staatseignen oder de facto staatseigenen
Betrieben gemacht. Die asiatischen Staaten beanspruchen eine
zunehmend wichtige Rolle innerhalb der weltweiten Lebensmittel­
Wertschöpfungskette. In Ländern, in denen nicht der Staat zum
größten Anteilseigner wird, konzentriert sich die Kontrolle der
Lebensmittelversorgung in den Händen einiger weniger mächtiger
Konglomerate, bei denen Größenvorteile und die Fähigkeit, sich
an verändernde Umweltbelastungen anzupassen, von zentraler
Bedeutung sind. Den Gewinnern in diesem Szenario gelingt es,
Versorgungs verträge mit der Regierung abzuschließen oder bei
Bedarf mit Regierungsstellen zusammenzuarbeiten.
Diese vier Szenarien skizzieren mögliche künftige Entwicklungen.
In der Praxis wird es sicherlich Überschneidungen zwischen den
Szenarien geben. Auch wenn uns heute das eine oder das andere
Szenario am wahrscheinlichsten scheint, ist die Zukunft ungewiss.
Die Unternehmen der Agrar­ und Ernährungs industrie werden
eine stimmige Strategie benötigen, die ihrer Marktpositionierung
im Außenmarkt, den Fähigkeiten, die sie für die Bereitstellung
ihrer Leistungen benötigen, wie auch der Art und Weise ihres
Handelns eine gemeinsame Richtung gibt. Ihre Botschaften
an die Kunden und Konsumenten müssen transparent und
nachvollziehbar sein.
Für Fragen zu diesem und angrenzenden Themen stehen wir
Ihnen gern zur Verfügung. Wir freuen uns auf den Austausch mit
Ihnen über die Zukunft der Agrar­ und Ernährungsindustrie und
Ihres eigenen Unternehmens.
November 2016
Peter Hoijtink, Jan­Willem Velthuijsen, Gerd Bovensiepen
Futures of food provision - Four possible scenarios for the AgriFood industry 3
Table of contents
1. Introduction 5
2. Setting the AgriFood scene 6
3. Disruptions in the AgriFood Industry 8
4. Four Scenarios on the Future 11
5. What do these scenarios mean for your organisation? 17
6. A Capabilities-Driven Strategy 20
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1. Introduction
The global population is currently growing by 1 million These possible futures look very different, but all are based
people per week. That number is already hard to imagine, on extrapolations of current trends. In practice, of course, no
but let’s consider what it actually means for global food single scenario is neatly ring­fenced. Nonetheless, by thinking
demand. For example, the Indian population traditionally has carefully about and expanding upon these different scenarios,
a vegetarian and vegan lifestyle. Lately, the Indian population companies will be able to evaluate their current strategy and
has been increasing its poultry and egg consumption, to plans, as well as the implications for their operating model
62 eggs per capita. In Germany, egg consumption is almost and capabilities.
four times higher. If the Indian population started eating as
many eggs as the German, we would need almost 700 million We believe the industry has a huge responsibility to recreate
additional hens to accommodate demand. We would also itself as an industry that not only feeds the world, but does
need many more poultry farms and much more poultry feed so sustainably. Deploying innovation in a highly efficient
to accommodate the future demand for eggs.1 manner will therefore require more effort and investment
in innovation and technology, as well as more collaboration
Will we be able to accommodate future food demand, across the various value chains. Governments, especially
knowing that climate change and resource scarcity put those in Europe, will have to step up their game to create an
additional pressure on the global food supply? Or will environment that will allow these innovations to flourish.
innovation and new technologies such as Agtech increase
yields and improve production methods fast enough to meet
increasing demand and counteract the negative effects of
climate change and resource scarcity?
We see several challenges ahead for the global food industry,
and for us as individual consumers as well. This paper
addresses the impact of these scenarios and supports you
in this challenge, as we have developed a framework for
considering potential futures. After comprehensive desk
research, we interviewed more than twenty executives in
the European AgriFood industry and asked them to share
their views on disruptions in the AgriFood industry. In
collaboration with our own internal experts, we used these
results to create four scenarios for the future.
1 Source: Statista, PwC Analysis
Futures of food provision - Four possible scenarios for the AgriFood industry 5
2. Setting the AgriFood scene
The scenarios in this paper take a look at how the European AgriFood industry may evolve over the next five to ten years by
considering the potential disruptors to the sector. To provide some context, we first take a brief look at the sector’s current
position.
AgriFood industry is a major
contributor to society Key indicators of the European AgriFood industry in 2014
Providing the population with safe,
affordable, and accessible food and € 2,726 € 114 billion € 129 billion 18 million € 1,264 billion
beverage is the underlying purpose of the billion imports exports employees spent on household
turnover consumption of
AgriFood industry. In Europe, consumers
food and drink
spend EUR 1,264 billion on food and
drinks per year. The AgriFood industry
has a huge social and economic impact
on society. What, where, and how food is
sourced, produced, sold, and consumed
is becoming increasingly important to Source: Eurostat.
consumers.
interweaving transport and government Pressure on prices and margins
From an economic perspective, with an throughout the chain. In Europe in 2015, The first decade of the 21st century saw
estimated annual turnover of EUR 2,726 almost 10.8 million farms, 300,000 food increasing of agricultural commodities
billion and added value of EUR 518 and beverage processing companies, and and food prices, together with growing
billion, the AgriFood industry2 is a major 2.8 million enterprises within the food volatility. Several factors contributed to
contributor to the European economy. distribution and food service industry higher agricultural commodity prices, such
The AgriFood value chain stretches from delivered food to over 500 million European as an increasing demand for both food
fertiliser and seed producers to farmers, consumers. In this report, we focus mainly and industrial use due to the rising world
food processing companies, and retailers, on that part of the AgriFood value chain population and a growing middle class,
that precedes retail.
PwC agribusiness value chain view
The agribusiness value chain comprises “field to market” lifecycle capabilities across food, beverage, flavor and textile commodities.
Raw Processing Brand    
Materials Producer Aggregator (multiple) Manufacturer Distribution Retailer Consumer
TRANSPORTATION
Biotechnology Farming Co-ops Animal protein Grocery Retail Grocery Experience
& Biosciences (meat, dairy) products distribution ratings
Livestock Traders networks Mass
Nanotechnology Grains Household Merchants SmartLabel
Forestry Consortiums (soybean, corn) goods Food service
Agrochemicals & other crops distribution Restaurants Social
Fishery and Exporters Food service networks networks
Fertilizers Aquaculture Biofuels industry products Hotels
(ethanol, Export Blogs
Agricultural Hydroponics biodiesel,biomass) networks Venues
Machinery &
Implements Tobacco Schools
Animal Feed Wineries Hospitals
Animal Health Care Centers
2 Excluding the retail and food service industries.
Source: European Commission (2015a)
6 PwC
increasing prices of inputs such as energy, the largest global multinationals. For this as well as the increased complexity of
seed, fertiliser, adverse weather conditions, survey, we interviewed several players in compliance with multi­jurisdictional
and financial speculation in agricultural the European AgriFood industry. They all regulations, are increasing the complexity
markets. expect further consolidation across the of supply chains. With a more global
value chain in the coming years. As one of footprint, different products are being
However, after several years of high yields, our interviewees indicated: “Consolidation directed to more diverse customers via
lower oil prices, and weakening demand could balance the distribution of different distribution channels which
growth due to the overall economic power across certain supply chains.” require different supply chains.
slowdown, prices for dairy, crops, and meat Consolidation will facilitate dealing
fell sharply, signalling that the era of high with increased legislative pressure while “Massive capital from Asian state-owned
prices for agricultural products might be enabling players to compete on a European companies and increases in wealth will
over. and global level. create more competition from the East.”
Gerd Bovensiepen, PwC
Margins vary within the value chain, Globalisation versus protectionism
depending on bargaining power. Whereas The European AgriFood industry plays An important question, however, is how
farmers are suffering from extremely low an important role in the world market. consumers, politicians, and the media
margins at the moment, international Since 2013, Europe has been the will react to this increasing globalisation.
trading houses can maintain relatively world’s leading exporter of AgriFood Trade agreements are already being met
good margins by hedging their derivative commodities and products. Currently, with scepticism. Will the market­oriented
trades. Players in other sectors of the the top five destinations for European AgriFood industry regress towards
AgriFood industry maintain their margins AgriFood exports are the U.S., China3, protectionism?
by creating added value for their customers Switzerland, Russia, and Japan, all of
or by improving their bargaining power by which are experiencing growth in imports
achieving scale. from Europe. Rising standards of living
in developing economies are creating
Increasing consolidation in the value opportunities for incumbent AgriFood
chain companies to expand their footprint
In recent years, consolidation has been further. These are also bringing new
one of the key drivers of growth in the competitors however, including a new
AgriFood industry, from dairy farms to breed of powerful state­owned companies,
regional food processing companies and onto the world stage. Both of these factors,
Commodity prices, indexed
200
ultimo 2010 = 100 in real US dollars
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Crude oil, average Soybeans Beef Sugar, EU Raw milk
Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data and European Commission Milk Market Observatory
3 Excluding Hongkong
Futures of food provision - Four possible scenarios for the AgriFood industry 7
3. Disruptions in the AgriFood industry
In our previous research,4 we described five megatrends that heavily impact each link in the AgriFood value chain: demographic
changes, urbanisation, climate change and resource scarcity, economic power shifts, and technological breakthroughs. Where
these megatrends collide, the AgriFood industry is prone to suffer major upheaval and disruption. We discussed the megatrends
and disruptions in significant detail with various stakeholders in European AgriFood companies. The interviewees most
frequently mentioned climate change and consumer behaviour as the most disruptive factors in the next ten years. They are
primarily concerned with two uncertainties in particular: will technology be able to solve the problems caused by climate change
and resource scarcity, and how will global consumer demand change over the next ten years? Will the Western diet be adopted
globally? Or will it become more sustainable and more diversified?
Climate change and resource scarcity 40 percent by 2050. Climate change will Can technology reduce the effects of
threaten AgriFood impact agricultural yields, food prices, climate change?
Climate change, resource scarcity, and supply reliability, food quality, and food The picture is not uniformly bleak,
sustainability are closely intertwined safety. Gradual climate change, combined however. Technological advances in seeds,
with the triad of water, energy, and food. with weather shocks, will impact yields fertilisers, and animal feed, as well as in
Resource scarcity continuously poses and change the usual functioning of supply farms and greenhouses, have increased
challenges to the way we produce, source, chains. These factors will also make large the yield per hectare, while reducing
and consume. swathes of previously arable land dry and energy and water use. HPP1, PEF2, and
unsuitable for crops, creating pressure on cold plasma have extended shelf life, while
As the global population is set to grow to the amount of agricultural land available. nanofiltering has increased the yield of
9.7 billion by 2050, global agricultural This will be particularly pronounced fermentation. This is only the start of what
production will have to grow by 70 percent in African and equatorial countries. promises to be a new Green Revolution.
by 2050, and by nearly 100 percent in fast­ Developed countries will not escape For the first time, smart breeding, genome
growing economies, to meet food demand. this impact. Even in traditionally milder editing and genetic modification – still a
Without a significant increase in arable climates, weather extremes will cause more very sensitive topic in the European Union
land or yields, this will put an enormous harvests to be wasted; witness the recent – are being adapted to tropical crops and
strain on resources. On top of this, up to 80 greenhouse­destroying hail storms in the may even be able to produce drought­ and
percent more energy and 55 percent more southern Netherlands. heat­resistant crops that mitigate the
water will be needed globally by 2050. effects of global warming. Yield­boosting
“Evidence suggests that the risk of a 1-in- microbes are being cultivated as natural
In Asia, wheat and corn yields have already 100 year production shock from extreme fertilisers to replace traditional chemical
reached a plateau and are now decreasing weather could increase to a 1-in-30 year fertilisers.
by 2 percent a decade. Meanwhile, water or more in the next few decades.”
consumption has risen at twice the rate of UK-US Taskforce on Extreme Weather
population growth for the past 100 years. and Global Food System Resilience As extreme weather conditions prevail,
By 2025, 1.8 billion people will live in farmers, insurance companies, and
regions with absolute water scarcity. All of this will impact food supply and governments need to be prepared
price. Conversely, global warming is for wasted harvests. Rather than
“If the rest of the world was able to proving to be a boon for some farmers. compensating affected farmers,
achieve similar yields to those currently Thawing permafrost in Canada and Russia governments may subsidise insurance.
achieved in for instance the Netherlands may create new arable land. Higher
and the U.S., we would be able to feed 9.3 temperatures in northern Europe are In the Netherlands, the number of
billion people, but at what environmental actually increasing yields in some cases. farmers using subsidies for weather
cost? More is needed to create a insurance doubled between 2010 and
sustainable future for the AgriFood “A change of climate will undoubtedly 2015, to almost 1,200.
industry and the world as well.” cause damaging weather extremes, but a
Peter Hoijtink, Strategy& warmer and sufficiently humid climate
may also increase the potential of land
Climate change will significantly affect the area available for overall productive
global food system. For example, rising dairying in regions with actually too
water temperatures will reduce yields of severe continental climate conditions.”
countries dependent on fishing by Milcobel
4 Megatrends impacting the Dutch agrifood industry: Towards a cleaner, healthier, safer, fairer, smarter and stronger sector (May 2014) and
Megatrends impacting the European agrifood industry: A brief look at business issues (January 2015).
8 PwC
“A dichotomy is arising between high- “Robotics is changing the nature of
tech food and organic food.” farming.” ForFarmers Farms are starting to spring up
Peter Hoijtink, Strategy& in unexpected places. Growing
Global consumer demand is changing Underground is just one of a new
The role of tech in yield management is The world’s population is set to grow from generation of urban farms tackling
already significant and it is set to grow 7.3 billion in 2015 to 8.5 billion in 2030 the urban environment. Growing
further. Big data is set to play a big role and to 9.7 billion by 2050. Together, the Underground is located in a World War
in valorising scientific knowledge. Smart countries in Asia and Africa are expected II­era bomb shelters beneath Clapham,
farming is a growing phenomenon, making to add over 6 million people a year to the south London. Light is provided by LEDs
use of live data­monitoring, hydroponics, global population. Not only is the global tuned so that the light that they emit is
and computer­controlled sowing, watering, population growing, its composition, social optimal for the plants’ photosynthesis.
fertilising, and harvesting. An entire structures, and habits are changing as well. Twenty types of salad plant are grown
industry is booming in what has come to in this artificial urban environment
be known as Agtech. Drones, satellites, and Traditional family structures and roles are – intended for London’s chefs and
light aircraft are being deployed to survey changing and households are becoming sandwich shops.
farms from above and collect data to be smaller. The effect on food consumption is
processed. significant. Families have fewer communal In The Hague, UrbanFarmers built a
meals, and the demand for convenience rooftop farm of 1,200 m2 and a fish
“Robots will be a part of our industry.” and takeout food is increasing. pond of 370 m2 on top of an old factory.
BayWa According to UrbanFarmers Benelux,
“Social change is happening: family this is the largest commercial urban
The use of tech promises to revolutionise structures, traditional food rituals, rooftop facility in Europe. The farm will
the way we think about agriculture, as but also the labour market and leisure produce 50 tonnes of fresh vegetables
well as to create huge new disruptions and time are changing.” The Federation of and 20 tonnes of fresh fish every year.
opportunities. This promises not only to German Food and Drink Industries
boost farmers’ profits on high­value crops
in the short term, but possibly to save The elderly population, defined as those
water, increase yields, and make more of aged sixty and older, is expected to grow
the world’s surface “arable” in the long from 670 million in 2005, to 2 billion
term – even cities (see inset). by 2050, representing a change from
Three common imperatives are driving future investments across agribusiness markets
Farmers that deliver profitability across all three imperatives will likely expand their acreage and become enterprise agribusiness leaders in their markets.
Improving yields Improving assets productivity Improving sustainability
Livestock | Herd IOT Field Monitoring Adaptive Input Equipment | ERP - Farm Packaging | Food Recovery
Management Platforms Irrigation Efficiency Asset Tracking Post-harvest
Data | Analytics Imagery Analytics Irrigation Sensors Field Monitoring ERP - Packing | Traceability |
(Platform) Hardware Sensor Solutions Processing Safety
Imagery Systems Animal Health Market Variable Rate UAV Platforms | Irrigation Adaptive
Technologies Information Tech Analytics Systems Hardware Irrigation
Field Monitoring VRT Data | Analytics Collaboration
Sensor Solutions Applications (Platform) Resources
Source: AgTech Insight and PwC Analysis
Futures of food provision - Four possible scenarios for the AgriFood industry 9
Milk consumption (liters per capita) sourced ingredients are most important
to consumers in Asia­Pacific and Latin
America, with 43 percent of respondents
Australia
in each region stating that sustainably
United Kingdom sourced ingredients are “very important.”
Sweden
“Sustainability is a trend driven not only
Spain
by government regulations, but also by
United States NGOs, and especially by consumers.”
Dr. Oetker
Brazil
Germany “Organic could become mainstream,
but this will take a generation (say 12 to
France
20 years).” Iglo Netherlands
Netherlands
India Another major factor influencing
food choices is consumer perception
Russia
surrounding the food chain. In the past
China few years, several food scandals revealed
major flaws in the traceability of the food
Turkey
supply chain that have impacted consumer
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 trust. Consumers expect governments
and companies themselves to improve
2009 2014
the way food companies are governed.
Source: International Dairy Federation and Statistics Canada Consumers are increasingly expecting
their brands to do the right thing and
are holding food companies primarily
10 percent to 22 percent of the global striking in China, where milk consumption responsible for transparency throughout
population. This effect is currently most jumped from approximately 9 litres per their supply chain. Such transparency is
pronounced in the West, but is expected to capita annually in 2009 to 18 litres in relevant to many aspects of the supply
follow on a global scale. Elderly consumers 2014. The trend will grow as the Indian chain, including health and safety, impact
spend less and spend differently, on smaller population introduces poultry and eggs on the environment, and livestock well­
packages and private label goods for into its diet, moving away from a vegan and being. Traceability, following the farm­to­
instance. They represent the wealthiest vegetarian lifestyle. fork paradigm, is the key to enhancing food
consumer group in many countries and safety standards.5
continents, making their spending habits “In the past few years, Asian players
increasingly relevant. have been buying large volumes of wines “The factors credibility, trustworthiness
from exclusive and popular chateaus. and reliability will play a stronger role
“Middle-aged people have an increasing Competition for these exclusive and in the food business in the future.”
focus on healthy food, and this will only popular wines is increasing globally.” Dr. Oetker
grow in the next five to ten years.” Sligro
Iglo Netherlands
Digitally connected millennials, concerned
In the emerging world, the size of the for the future of their planet and spurred
middle class is undergoing a seismic shift, by NGOs and retailers, are seeking
with a pronounced effect on diets. In the sustainably, locally sourced, or ethically
Asia Pacific region alone, the middle class traded foods. They are leading a growing
is set to rise from 525 million in 2009 to trend: in a survey conducted by BBMG, 66
3.2 billion by 2030. This middle­class percent of respondents said that they “feel Chinese consumers buy directly in
boom has increased the disposable income a sense of responsibility” to society, and the Netherlands
of families in emerging economies, and 65 percent said they felt a responsibility Recently, Chinese e­commerce platform
brought with it a change in tastes. As to purchase products that are good for the Alibaba announced a collaboration with
disposable income increases in middle­ environment and society. This trend is not Dutch webshop Hollandbuy. Chinese
income families, they tend to spend more exclusive to the West. In fact, 82 percent of consumers can buy food products
of it on wheat, meat, milk, convenience respondents in developing markets also felt directly from Dutch food producers and
food, and soft drinks, as they adopt this responsibility. Furthermore, a recent have it home­delivered.
Western eating habits. The trend is most Nielsen poll suggests that sustainably
5 For more information on the issues raised by Food Trust and Food Security see PwC’s Food Supply Integrity services.
10 PwC