Future Wave and Wind Projections for United States and United States-Affiliated Pacific Islands

455 Pages·2015·31.77 MB·English

by  Susan A. Cochran

Future Wave and Wind Projections for United States
and United States-Affiliated Pacific Islands

Open-File Report 2015–1001
U.S. Department of the Interior
U.S. Geological Survey
Cover image:
Aerial photograph of waves breaking on the fringing reef off Ennuebing Island, Kwajalein Atoll, Republic of
the Marshall Islands
Future Wave and Wind Projections for United States
and United States-Affiliated Pacific Islands
By Curt D. Storlazzi, James B. Shope, Li H. Erikson, Christie A. Hegermiller, and Patrick L. Barnard

Open-File Report 2015-1001

U.S. Department of the Interior
U.S. Geological Survey
U.S. Department of the Interior
SALLY JEWELL, Secretary
U.S. Geological Survey
Suzette M. Kimball, Acting Director
U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2015
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Suggested citation:
Storlazzi, C.D., Shope, J.B., Erikson, L.H., Hegermiller, C.A., and Barnard, P.L., 2015, Future wave and
wind projections for United States and United States-affiliated Pacific Islands: U.S. Geological Survey
Open-File Report 2015–1001, 426 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20151001.
ISSN 2331–1258 (online)
Contents
Abstract ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 1
Introduction...................................................................................................................................................................................... 2

Project Objectives ....................................................................................................................................................................... 3

Study Area................................................................................................................................................................................... 4

Methods........................................................................................................................................................................................... 4

Global Climate Model Input Data ................................................................................................................................................ 4

WAVEWATCH-III Wave Modeling ............................................................................................................................................... 5

Wave Parameter Statistics .......................................................................................................................................................... 6

Model Skill ................................................................................................................................................................................... 7

Results ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 8

Model Skill ................................................................................................................................................................................... 8

Regional Results ....................................................................................................................................................................... 10

Wave Climate Parameter Changes ....................................................................................................................................... 10

The Western Region ......................................................................................................................................................... 10

Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 10

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 12

Marianas Region ............................................................................................................................................................... 13

Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 13

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 15

Central Region .................................................................................................................................................................. 16

Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 16

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 18

Northeast Region .............................................................................................................................................................. 20

Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 20

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 22

Eastern Equatorial Region ................................................................................................................................................ 24

Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 24

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 26

Southern Region ............................................................................................................................................................... 27

Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 27

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 29

Wind Climate Parameter Changes ........................................................................................................................................ 30

Western Region ................................................................................................................................................................. 30

Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 30

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 31

Marianas Region ............................................................................................................................................................... 32

Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 32

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 34

Central Region .................................................................................................................................................................. 35

Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 35

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 37

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Northeast Region .............................................................................................................................................................. 39
Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 39

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 40

Eastern Equatorial Region ................................................................................................................................................ 42

Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 42

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 43

Southern Region ............................................................................................................................................................... 44

Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ............................................................................................................................................... 44

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 45

Discussion ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 46

Spatial and Temporal H and U Trends.................................................................................................................................... 47
s a

Significant Wave Heights ...................................................................................................................................................... 47

Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ................................................................................................................................................... 47

End-Century: 2081–2100 .................................................................................................................................................. 47

Mean Wind Speeds ............................................................................................................................................................... 48

Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ................................................................................................................................................... 48

End-century: 2081–2100 ................................................................................................................................................... 48

Spatial and Temporal T , D , and U Trends ............................................................................................................................. 49
p p θ

Peak Wave Periods ............................................................................................................................................................... 49

Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ................................................................................................................................................... 49

End Century: 2081–2100 .................................................................................................................................................. 49

Mean Wave Directions .......................................................................................................................................................... 49

Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ................................................................................................................................................... 49

End-Century: 2081–2100 .................................................................................................................................................. 50

Mean Wind Directions ........................................................................................................................................................... 51

Mid-Century: 2026–2045 ................................................................................................................................................... 51

End-Century: 2081–2100 .................................................................................................................................................. 51

Implications ............................................................................................................................................................................... 51

Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................................................... 53

Acknowledgments ......................................................................................................................................................................... 54

Additional Digital Information ......................................................................................................................................................... 54

Direct Contact Information ............................................................................................................................................................. 54

References Cited ........................................................................................................................................................................... 55

Appendix A. Wave Height, Wave Period, and Wave Direction Statistics .................................................................................... 227

Appendix B. Wind Speed and Wind Direction Statistics .............................................................................................................. 277

Appendix C. Monthly Trends in Wave Height .............................................................................................................................. 327

Appendix D. Monthly Trends in Wind Speeds ............................................................................................................................. 377

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Tables
1. Table of names and locations of WAVEWATCH III model points within the mid-to-western tropical Pacific
Ocean .......................................................................................................................................................................57
2. List of Global Climate Models used, wave model used, and the model resolutions .....................................................57

3. Table showing comparisons between hindcast significant wave height data, in meters, at the Molokai point
and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations throughout the Hawaiian Islands
by months .................................................................................................................................................................57
4. Table showing comparisons between hindcast significant wave height data, in meters, at the Big Island of
Hawaii point and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations throughout the
Hawaiian Islands by months. ....................................................................................................................................59
5. Table showing comparisons between hindcast significant wave height data, in meters, at the Kauai point
and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations throughout the Hawaiian Islands
by months. ................................................................................................................................................................59
6. Table showing comparisons between hindcast top 5 percent of significant wave height data, in meters, at
the Molokai point and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations throughout the
Hawaiian Islands by months. ....................................................................................................................................60
7. Table showing comparisons between hindcast top 5 percent of significant wave height data, in meters, at
the Big Island of Hawaii point and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations
throughout the Hawaiian Islands by months. ............................................................................................................60
8. Table showing comparisons between hindcast top 5 percent of significant wave height data, in meters, at
the Kauai point and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations throughout the
Hawaiian Islands by months. ....................................................................................................................................61
Figures
1. Map showing the locations of the 25 modeled points within the tropical Pacific Ocean used in this study. ................62
2. Map showing the locations of selected National Data Buoy Center stations, in purple, and modeled points,
in red, within in the Hawaiian Island Chain. ..............................................................................................................63
3. Plots showing comparisons of the empirical cumulative density functions of hindcasted (1986-2005)
Molokai point significant wave heights (H) in meters, from each GCM-driven WW3 model run with the
s
observed historical cumulative density function at each NDBC station.. ...................................................................64
4. Plots showing comparisons of the empirical cumulative density functions of hindcasted (1986-2005) Big
Island of Hawaii point significant wave heights (H) in meters from each GCM-driven WW3 model run
s
with the observed historical cumulative density function at each NDBC station. ......................................................65
5. Plots showing comparisons of the empirical cumulative density functions of hindcasted (1986-2005) Kauai
point significant wave heights (H) in meters from each GCM-driven WW3 model run with the observed
s
historical cumulative density function at each NDBC station. ...................................................................................66
6. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave
height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the
RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ...............................................................................................................................67
7. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave
height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5
future climatic scenario. ............................................................................................................................................68

v
8. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave
height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the
RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ...............................................................................................................................69
9. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave
height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under
the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. .........................................................................................................................70
10. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and
variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values
during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario.. ...............................................71
11. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and
variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values
during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ..............................................................72
12. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and
variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values
during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ............................................................73
13. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and
variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values
during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. .............................................74
14. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave
height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the
RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ...............................................................................................................................75
15. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave
height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5
future climatic scenario. ............................................................................................................................................76
16. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave
height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the
RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ...............................................................................................................................77
17. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave
height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under
the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. .........................................................................................................................78
18. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and
variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values
during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario.. ...............................................79
19. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and
variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values
during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ..............................................................80
20. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and
variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values
during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ............................................................81
21. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and
variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values
during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. .............................................82
22. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave
height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the
RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ...............................................................................................................................83

vi
23. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave
height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5
future climatic scenario. ............................................................................................................................................84
24. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave
height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the
RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ...............................................................................................................................85
25. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave
height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under
the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. .........................................................................................................................86
26. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and
variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values
during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ................................................87
27. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and
variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values
during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ..............................................................88
28. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and
variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values
during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ............................................................89
29. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and
variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values
during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. .............................................90
30. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave
height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the
RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ...............................................................................................................................91
31. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave
height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5
future climatic scenario. ............................................................................................................................................92
32. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave
height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the
RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean
significant wave heights during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes
correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in significant wave height during 2081–2100
from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters. .....................................................................................93
33. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave
height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under
the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. .........................................................................................................................94
34. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and
variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values
during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ................................................95
35. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and
variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values
during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ..............................................................96
36. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and
variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values
during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ............................................................97

vii
37. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and
variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values
during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. .............................................98
38. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the
years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5
future climatic scenario. ............................................................................................................................................99
39. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the
years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic
scenario. ................................................................................................................................................................. 100
40. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the
years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future
climatic scenario. .................................................................................................................................................... 101
41. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the
years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5
future climatic scenario. .......................................................................................................................................... 102
42. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant
wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the
years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5
future climatic scenario. .......................................................................................................................................... 103
43. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant
wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the
years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic
scenario. ................................................................................................................................................................. 104
44. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant
wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the
years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future
climatic scenario. .................................................................................................................................................... 105
45. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant
wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the
years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5
future climatic scenario. .......................................................................................................................................... 106
46. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the
years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5
future climatic scenario. .......................................................................................................................................... 107
47. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the
years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic
scenario. ................................................................................................................................................................. 108
48. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the
years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future
climatic scenario. .................................................................................................................................................... 109
49. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the
years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5
future climatic scenario. .......................................................................................................................................... 110
50. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant
wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the
years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5
future climatic scenario. .......................................................................................................................................... 111

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