Future US Security Relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan - RAND

183 Pages·2008·0.98 MB·English

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Future U.S. Security
Relationships with
Iraq and Afghanistan
U.S. Air Force Roles
David E. Thaler, Theodore W. Karasik, Dalia Dassa Kaye,
Jennifer D. P. Moroney, Frederic Wehrey, Obaid Younossi,
Farhana Ali, Robert A. Guffey
Prepared for the United States Air Force
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
PROJECT AIR FORCE
The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States
Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information
may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of
Plans, Hq USAF.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Future U.S. security relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan : U.S. Air Force roles /
David E. Thaler ... [et al.].
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8330-4197-5 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Iraq—Military relations—United States. 2. United States—Military
relations—Iraq. 3. Afghanistan—Military relations—United States. 4. United
States—Military relations—Afghanistan. 5. United States. Air Force.
I. Thaler, David E.
DS79.76.F88 2008
355'.031097309567—dc22
2008023903
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Preface
President Bush’s National Security Strategy describes the current cir-
cumstance as one in which “America is at war,” prompted by “the rise
of terrorism fueled by an aggressive ideology of hatred and murder.”
The strategy highlights a parallel policy of “fighting and winning the
war on terror and promoting freedom as the alternative to tyranny and
despair.”1
Iraq and Afghanistan are centerpieces of this strategy, giving the
United States a huge stake in their long-term development. Not only
is the United States heavily invested diplomatically, economically, and
militarily in these two nations, but the countries are also situated in
geostrategically critical locations. Iraq and Afghanistan are the nexus
of many interrelated threats, including terrorism, insurgency, trans-
national crime, and trade in narcotics and weapons. Developments in
these nations will affect the futures and regional ambitions of their
neighbors, for good or for ill. A stable and secure Afghanistan and Iraq
could be key partners with the United States and others in meeting the
challenges they face in the Middle East and Central and South Asia—
even as weak and ineffective governments and resulting instability in
these two nations could once again create severe security concerns for
the United States.
This monograph seeks to provide U.S. defense decisionmakers
and planners with insights into the role that America’s armed forces,
especially its Air Force, might be called upon to play in forging durable
1 George W. Bush, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, March
2006, Washington, D.C.: The White House, p. 1 of opening statement.
iii
iv Future U.S. Security Relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan
U.S.-Afghan and U.S.-Iraqi security relationships for the long term—
both as direct providers of security to what will remain fragile and vul-
nerable states and as shapers of a regional environment within which
Iraq and Afghanistan can thrive.
The research reported here was sponsored by the U.S. Air Force
Director of Operational Plans and Joint Matters (A5X), Headquarters
United States Air Force, and conducted within the Strategy and Doc-
trine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE for a fiscal year 2006
study, “Future U.S. Security Relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan.”
It should be of interest to U.S. security policymakers, military plan-
ners, and analysts and observers of regional affairs in the Middle East
and Central and South Asia.
The bulk of the research was completed in late 2006. To the
extent practicable, the authors have updated major events and condi-
tions described throughout the monograph through summer 2007. As
any observer of Iraq and Afghanistan can attest, however, these devel-
opments are very fast paced and pose a challenge to analysis of long-
term trends and factors. The authors fully expect some of the references
in the document to appear dated to readers by the time of publication.
Nevertheless, the findings and recommendations contained herein are
designed to withstand the ebb and flow of near-term events and to
remain relevant as a vision for the future.
RAND Project AIR FORCE
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ration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and develop-
ment center for studies and analysis. PAF provides the Air Force with
independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development,
employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aero-
space forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Aerospace Force
Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Manage-
ment; and Strategy and Doctrine.
Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site:
http://www.rand.org/paf/
Contents
Preface ............................................................................. iii
Figures and Table ................................................................ ix
Summary .......................................................................... xi
Acknowledgments ............................................................ xxiii
Abbreviations ..................................................................xxvii
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction ....................................................................... 1
U.S., Iraqi, and Afghan Security Objectives .................................... 4
U.S. Interests in the Surrounding Regions ................................... 4
U.S. Interests in Iraq and Afghanistan ....................................... 4
Iraqi and Afghan Security Objectives ......................................... 8
Alternative Outcomes in Iraq and Afghanistan ...............................10
Toward Compatibility and Security ..........................................13
Toward Incompatibility and Insecurity ......................................14
Toward Incompatibility and Security ........................................15
Concluding Remarks .............................................................16
CHAPTER TWO
Perspectives on Potential Threats to Stability and Security in Iraq,
Afghanistan, and the Surrounding Regions ...........................19
Introduction .......................................................................19
Threats to Iraqi and Afghan Security .......................................... 20
Threat Perceptions of Iraq’s Domestic Groups ............................. 20
Threat Perceptions of Afghanistan’s Domestic Groups .....................21
v
vi Future U.S. Security Relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan
The Evolution of Terrorism and Insurgency in Afghanistan
and Iraq .................................................................... 22
The Breakdown of Central Authority in Afghanistan and Iraq .......... 28
Regional Threat Perceptions .....................................................31
Saudi Arabia and Other Gulf Cooperation Council States ................33
Turkey ........................................................................... 36
Iran ...............................................................................37
Pakistan ..........................................................................41
Threat Perceptions and Alternative Outcomes in Iraq and
Afghanistan .................................................................. 43
Concluding Remarks ............................................................ 46
CHAPTER THREE
Alternative Security Relationships ...........................................47
The Context of Future Regional Security Frameworks ...................... 48
Continued Competitive Bilateralism ........................................ 50
Cooperative Bilateralism: Enhancing Cooperative Partnerships ..........51
Competitive Multilateralism: NATO in the Middle East? ................53
Cooperative Multilateralism ...................................................55
A Layered Regional Security Framework ....................................61
Bilateral U.S. Security Relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan ...........62
Formal Defense Pacts ...........................................................63
Strategic Partnerships ...........................................................65
Situational Partnerships ........................................................67
Minimal or No Security Ties ..................................................70
Preferred U.S. Bilateral Security Ties with Iraq and Afghanistan ........71
Building Future Security Cooperation with Iraq and Afghanistan .........73
Shaping Partners Through Security Cooperation ...........................73
Current Security Cooperation Activities .................................... 77
Security Cooperation with Afghanistan Under Alternative
Outcomes ...................................................................79
Security Cooperation with Iraq Under Alternative Outcomes ............83
Concluding Remarks ............................................................ 88
Contents vii
CHAPTER FOUR
Long-Term Roles for the U.S. Air Force in Iraq and Afghanistan .....89
Roles of Iraqi and Afghan Security Forces .....................................91
Developing Iraqi and Afghan Forces ...........................................93
Building Iraqi Airpower ....................................................... 97
Building Afghan Airpower .................................................. 102
Building Air Capability in the Iraqi and Afghan Police Forces ......... 105
Encouraging Cooperation Among Regional Air Forces .................. 106
Concluding Remarks ......................................................... 108
USAF Direct Operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the
Surrounding Regions ...................................................... 108
Operational Tasks USAF Assets Will Be Asked to Accomplish ......... 110
Ensuring “Jointness” in Planning in the Theater .......................... 113
USAF Posture in the Theater ................................................ 115
A Sustained Level of Effort .................................................... 117
Implications of Alternative Iraqi and Afghan Outcomes ................... 118
Concluding Remarks ........................................................... 123
CHAPTER FIVE
Conclusions and Recommendations ....................................... 125
Recommendations for the USG and the DoD .............................. 126
Regional Partnerships and Security Structures ............................ 127
U.S. Partnerships with Iraq and Afghanistan ............................. 128
Recommendations for the U.S. Air Force .................................... 129
Building Iraqi and Afghan Capacity for Independent Air
Operations ................................................................ 130
Direct Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan ............................... 132
Planning for a Long-Term Role ............................................. 134
APPENDIX
Force Structure Data, Iraqi and Afghan Air Arms, May 2007 ........ 137
Bibliography .................................................................... 139