Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean PDF
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Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean PREPUBLICATION COPY Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean Committee on Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean Polar Research Board Division on Earth and Life Studies This prepublication version of Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean has been provided to the public to facilitate timely access to the report. Although the substance of the report is final, editorial changes may be made throughout the text and citations will be checked prior to publication. The final report will be available through the National Academies Press by winter 2011. THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, N.W. • Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by the National Science Foundation under contract number ANT-1062149. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsoring agency or any of its sub agencies. International Standard Book Number-XXXXXX International Standard Book Number-XXXXXX Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. PREPUBLICATION COPY Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org PREPUBLICATION COPY Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean PREPUBLICATION COPY Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean COMMITTEE ON FUTURE SCIENCE OPPORTUNITIES IN THE ANTARCTIC AND SOUTHERN OCEAN WARREN M. ZAPOL (Chair), Harvard Medical School and Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston ROBIN E. BELL, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York DAVID H. BROMWICH, Ohio State University, Columbus THOMAS F. BUDINGER, University of California, Berkeley JOHN E. CARLSTROM, University of Chicago, Illinois RITA R. COLWELL, University of Maryland, College Park SARAH B. DAS, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts HUGH W. DUCKLOW, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts PETER HUYBERS, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts JOHN LESLIE KING, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor RAMON E. LOPEZ, University of Texas, Arlington OLAV ORHEIM, Research Council of Norway, Oslo STANLEY B. PRUSINER, University of California, San Francisco MARILYN RAPHAEL, University of California, Los Angeles PETER SCHLOSSER, Columbia University, Palisades, New York LYNNE D. TALLEY, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California DIANA H. WALL, Colorado State University, Fort Collins NRC Staff EDWARD DUNLEA, Study Director LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant PREPUBLICATION COPY v Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean POLAR RESEARCH BOARD JAMES W. C. WHITE (Chair), University of Colorado, Boulder SRIDHAR ANANDAKRISHNAN, Pennsylvania State University, University Park JULIE BRIGHAM-GRETTE, University of Massachusetts, Amherst DAVID H. BROMWICH, Ohio State University, Columbus JENNIFER A. FRANCIS, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey EILEEN E. HOFMANN, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia BERNICE M. JOSEPH, University of Alaska, Fairbanks AMY LAUREN LOVECRAFT, University of Alaska, Fairbanks MOLLY E. MCCAMMON, Alaska Ocean Observing System, Anchorage ELLEN S. MOSLEY-THOMPSON, Ohio State University, Columbus GEORGE B. NEWTON, QinetiQ North America, Marstons Mills, Massachusetts CARYN REA, ConocoPhillips, Anchorage, Alaska VLADIMIR E. ROMANOVSKY, University of Alaska, Fairbanks GAIUS R. SHAVER, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts ALLAN T. WEATHERWAX, Siena College, Loudonville, New York Ex-Officio Members: JACQUELINE M. GREBMEIER, University of Maryland, Solomons MAHLON C. KENNICUTT II, Texas A&M University, College Station TERRY WILSON, Ohio State University, Columbus NRC Staff CHRIS ELFRING, Board Director LAURIE GELLER, Senior Program Officer EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer LAUREN BROWN, Research Associate AMANDA PURCELL, Senior Program Assistant PREPUBLICATION COPY vi Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean Preface The purpose of science, in the broadest sense, is to expand the frontier of human understanding. Antarctica and the Southern Ocean have always been, and remain, a frontier – both an unexplored place and an untapped library of knowledge. In the past 50 years, scientists have made tremendous progress in Antarctic and Southern Ocean science. But there are still many frontiers to explore in the coming decades. Scientific inquiry in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean is helping to answer questions that are important to understanding the planet: its history, its processes, and how it is changing. The gas inside of a tiny bubble of air trapped in the Antarctic ice miles below the surface can help us understand how the climate of the whole planet is changing. A temperature sensor strapped to a seal swimming deep in the ocean under sea ice in the Southern Ocean can ultimately help us understand how sea levels might rise in Washington, DC. There are also mysteries to be solved about how the world and the Universe work. Light from earliest seconds of the formation of the Universe that is collected at telescopes at the South Pole can help unlock the mysteries of dark matter. In this report, the Committee on Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean was asked to identify the important questions that will drive scientific research in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean over the next two decades. This report is intended to inform the work of the National Science Foundation’s Office of Polar Programs and in particular a Blue Ribbon Panel that is reviewing the logistical support of NSF’s U.S. Antarctic Program. In doing its work, the Committee has tried to highlight important areas of research by encapsulating each in an overarching question. The questions fall into two themes –observing and understanding global change and fundamental discovery. Research support in the South requires considerable resources, so the Committee has also attempted to identify key opportunities to be leveraged in the effort to enhance scientific research in the Antarctic region. In looking forward, the Committee has identified a need for new initiatives to further develop an observing network and improve scientific modeling capabilities. Through the process of gathering information for this report, the Committee heard from many people in the Antarctic and Southern Ocean science community and we thank everyone for their thoughts (see Acknowledgments section). The Committee relied upon a large number of reports from the community, and we would like to thank the community at large for all of their work in these efforts over the years. In addition, we want to thank the Office of Polar Programs for providing information as we needed it, and for being open to receiving advice. Finally, this report would not have been possible without the dedication and contributions of the NRC staff: Edward Dunlea, Lauren Brown, Amanda Purcell, and Chris Elfring. PREPUBLICATION COPY vii Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean viii Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean The Office of Polar Programs has a big job to do in supporting and enhancing scientific research in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, and it is very important for understanding our world. We hope that this report offers advice to guide their efforts in the coming decades. Sincerely, Warren M. Zapol PREPUBLICATION COPY Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Sridhar Anandakrishnan, Pennsylvania State University Gerald T. Garvey, Los Alamos National Laboratory Thom J. Hodgson, North Carolina State University Gretchen E. Hofmann, University of California, Santa Barbara Barbara Methe, The Institute for Genomic Research Ellen S. Mosley-Thompson, Ohio State University Claire L. Parkinson, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Steve Rintoul, CSIRO Colin P. Summerhayes, University of Cambridge Although the reviewers listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the views of the workshop participants, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by David Karl, University of Hawaii, and Martha Haynes, Cornell University, appointed by the Division on Earth and Life Studies and the Report Review Committee, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring panel and the institution. In addition, the Committee would like to thank in particular for their contributions during the study process: Karl Erb, Scott Borg, Brian Stone, Kate Moran, Joel Parriott, John Calder, Waleed Abdalati, Tom Wagner, Jerry Mullins, Larry Hothem, LCDR Michael Krause, Mahlon (Chuck) Kennicutt, Meredith Hooper, John Goodge, Helen Fricker, Eric Rignot, Sarah Gille, Jim Bishop, Donal Manahan, Alton Romig, Scott Doney, Allan Weatherwax, Lawson Brigham, and Alexandra Isern. The Committee would also like to thank all of the online questionnaire respondents who provided their thoughts on the future of science in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. PREPUBLICATION COPY ix Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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