future jihad: terrorist strategies against america

288 Pages·2006·1.22 MB·English

PRAISE FOR WALID PHARES AND FUTURE JIHAD
“Phares understands the language of Jihadism and analyses Arab Islamicpolitics
authoritatively.He is a leading educator to the public and an eye opener to decision
makers.Right on the subject and says it like it is.”
—Dr. Jacob Keryakes, NBC Arabic Translator and Linguist
“Dr. Walid Phares is an experienced expert whom the media trusts to provide
accurate and timely insights on the nature of jihad and Islamic-based terrorism.
His book is a ‘must read’on the threats we face in the future.”
—Andrew Cochran, Founder & Editor, The Counterterrorism Blog
“Dr.Phares’comments and analysis are always insightful and provide a cultural
‘insider’s view’of the Middle East and the global jihad movement.”
—Rick Hahn, Former FBI Terrorism expert. MSNBC Counter Terrorism analyst
“Dr. Phares has an unmatched knowledge of the Middle East with its tightly
interwoven tapestry of language, religion, history and politics. He can bring an
inter-disciplinary approach to complex security issues.Unlike somany analysts,he
can conveyhis encyclopedic knowledge of the Middle Eastin multiple languages.”
—Colonel Kenneth Allard, USA (Ret.), Former Dean,
National War College and NBC Defense Analyst
“Walid Phares’precise,‘pulls no punches’analysis of an extremely complex and
difficult issue should be required reading in the counterterrorism community.”
—Col. Rick Francona, Retired intelligence officer, CNBC News analyst
“Walid Phares is a uniquely perceptive expert on radical Islamism,terrorism,and
related issues.”
—Cliff May, President, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies
“Walid Phares’academic analysis of the politics of Jihad ideologies and movements
and their perception of international relations is unique.His book,Future Jihad,is
pioneering in the new field of post 9/11 clash of ideas.His deep understanding and
equal of Arab and Western political cultures enables him to tell the story entirely as
he frequently does in writing but also on al jazeera,al Hurra,and the many Western
networks such as NBC,CNN,Fox News,CBC,and BBC.”
—Dr. Franck Salameh, Professor of Arab Culture, Boston University
MORE PRAISE FOR WALID PHARES AND FUTURE JIHAD
“Walid Phares’ expert analysis on Jihad terrorism and its future possibilities is
unparalleled. His depth and breadth of knowledge on Jihad terrorism and its
historical roots is essential to understanding the enemy we face.His arguments that
wemust know and understand our adversary in order to confront it are extremely
convincing. Phares’ analysis is fundamental to defeating the Jihadis and their
ideology. His book is a must-read for students and policy-makers around the
world.”
—Stephen Shellman, Ph.D., Co-Director,
Workshop on Teaching about Terrorism and Professor, College of William & Mary
“Walid Phares is the ultimate ‘connect-the-dots’analyst.Where others see a blur
disconnected facts,he sees a picture,and he is a master at describing what he sees
to audiences as diverse as college students,federal courts,and the viewers of CNN.
If you want to know who the jihadist enemies of America and the West are,what
they are doing and why,and what must be done to defeat them,there is no better
guide than Walid Phares.”
—Dennis Hale, Associate Professor, Boston College
“The concept of ‘jihad terrorism’presented by Dr.Walid Phares puts the West on
notice as to the true nature of the enemy and the parameters of what is,essentially,
a total war between competing and incompatible worldviews.”
—Earl Tilford, Professor of History, Grove City College
“Walid Phares is a daring historian.He plays towards the Arab and Muslim world
the role of Russian thinker Andrei Amalrik towards the Soviet Union: Speaking the
truth.”
—Dr. Jean Aucagne S.J, Saint Joseph University, Beirut
F U T U R E
J I H A D
Terrorist Strategies against America
WALID PHARES
FUTUREJIHAD
Copyright © Walid Phares,2005.
All rights reserved.No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner
whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in
critical articles or reviews.
First published 2005 by
PALGRAVE MACMILLAN™
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Houndmills,Basingstoke,Hampshire,England RG21 6XS.
Companies and representatives throughout the world.
PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan
division of St.Martin’s Press,LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd.Macmillan® is a
registered trademark in the United States,United Kingdom and other countries.Palgrave is a
registered trademark in the European Union and other countries.
ISBN 1-4039-7074-2 hardback
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Phares,Walid,1957–
Future Jihad : terrorist strategies against America / Walid Phares.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 1-4039-7074-2 (alk.paper)
1. Terrorism—United States. 2. Terrorism—Islamic countries. 3. Terrorism—
Religious aspects—Islam. 4. Jihad. 5. Qaida (Organization) 6. War on Terrorism,
2001– 7. Anti-Americanism. I. Title.
HV6432.P493 2005
363.32’0973—dc22
2005049892
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Design by Letra Libre,Inc.
First edition: November 2005.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Printed in the United States of America
CONTENTS
Acknowledgments vii
List of Illustrations ix
Introduction 1
Chapter One
The Historical Roots of Jihad 17
Chapter Two
Who Are the Jihadists? 47
Chapter Three
After the Caliphate 69
Chapter Four
The Nazi Alliance 77
Chapter Five
The Communist Dilemma 83
Chapter Six
Israel’s Fate 87
Chapter Seven
What the Cold War Meant for the Future 99
Chapter Eight
The New Jihad 113
Chapter Nine
Jihadist Strategies against America 133
Chapter Ten
The Inevitability of 9/11 153
Chapter Eleven
Bin Laden’s Strategy against America 161
Chapter Twelve
The Root Causes of America’s Failure 171
Chapter Thirteen
Projecting Future Jihad 179
Chapter Fourteen
The Clash of Strategies: America Versus Jihad 195
Chapter Fifteen
America: Jihad’s Second Generation 211
Chapter Sixteen
Mutant Jihad 239
Chapter Seventeen
Guidelines and Prescriptive Policies 247
Conclusion 253
Notes 259
Index 273
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This book is the result of a lifetime of observation and analysis.Its findings
weredrawn from decades of reading and research and patient listening to
opinions expressed in a variety of forms.The birth of the book has to be cred-
ited to an endless number of people I have met in my long journey across the
world.
My first acknowledgment must be to my readers, audiences, and faithful
participants in the many forums to which I have made presentations. I must
thank everyone who over the years had encouraged me to put these thoughts
into writing.
My second acknowledgment is to Cliff May,the president of the Founda-
tion for the Defense of Democracies in Washington.I owe Cliff for his contin-
uous support for my projects,and,along with my colleagues at the Foundation,
I thank him for hosting me as a senior fellow and for deeply understanding the
importance of my work and promoting it.
My third acknowledgment goes to the team to which I owe the publish-
ing project. Lynne Rabinoff, my very patient agent, never lost hope in this
book, even as I postponed my decision for two years. She relentlessly en-
couraged me to take the step and make this book a reality.Airié Stuart,my ed-
itor, editorial director at Palgrave Macmillan, understood the message and
importance of the book and guided me through the publishing process,
strategizing with me and editing. I thank her for championing this book. I
would also like to thank Bruce Murphy and the editors for their valuable
comments on the manuscript,and also thank the production and marketing
teams for their efficiency.
My fourth acknowledgment is directed toward those who have influenced
my thinking and methods.I hold a special regard for those instructors who im-
pacted my intellectual evolution in my formative classroom years.My thanks
also go to all the various editors,network producers and administrators,jour-
nalists,publishers,anchorpeople,writers,and intellectuals on three continents
who valued my remarks and my work and made it possible for me to share it
with the public for over a quarter of a century.But,above all,I owe my thought
process to my older brother,Sami,who decades ago opened my eyes.He was
my mentor in the adolescence of my research life, and I cannot thank him
enough for the light he shed during those early years.
viii FUTURE JIHAD
My final acknowledgment extends toward those in my personal life,those
who have been affected by the time taken away from them and instead focused
on this book.I must thank my loved ones and family,who stood by me during
the hard times and shared the burden of a life filled with difficulties.I know my
work would make them proud.My particular thoughts go to my mother and my
sister,witnesses to my sacrifices.My strength comes from their understanding
of my dedication to my work.
And beyond the frontiers of life,I owe to my late father my constant desire
to bring truth to people.He taught and convinced me that truth brings justice;
he used to say: “Bring knowledge around you,that’s your mission.”
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
Fig.8.1.Jihad against the United States: 1980s/1990s 129
Fig.8.2.Jihad Battlefields: The 1990s 129
Fig.9.1.A Power Map of the Jihadist Lobby inside the United States 150
Fig.13.1.Projected Jihad States,2001–2008 185
Fig.14.1.Future Jihad Objective: New Caliphate 209
Fig.14.2.Dar el Harb 209