FUTURE GAS: FROM NORTH, SOUTH OR EAST? Africa and Middle East Perspective

28 Pages·2013·1.09 MB·English

by  Akmal Zaghloul

The 17th European Gas Conference, Oslo, Norway
F : N , S E ?
UTURE GAS FROM ORTH OUTH OR AST
Africa and Middle East Perspective
Khaled Abubakr
Egyptian Gas Association
Africa & Middle East
Secretary General Chairman
Regional Coordinator
4th of June 2013
I : S O G S F EU
NTRODUCTION ECURITY F AS UPPLY OR
 Recent international events, such as the uprisings in North Africa & Middle East,
and the disaster at the Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan, have impacted on the
European energy picture.

 The supply side is undergoing major changes:
 Europe’s natural gas production has declined in recent years,
 Political events in key production areas such as North Africa risk to
jeopardize the suppliers’ capacity to produce and deliver their natural gas
to the markets.
 Access to alternative supplies such as LNG & Caspian pipeline gas remains
limited especially that are not an option at all for some EU countries.

 Two major types of geopolitical risks need to be taken into account:
 Source risks;
 transit risks.
2
F N G S F E
UTURE ATURAL AS UPPLY OR UROPE
Main gas regions for European supply:
 North Sea: Norway, United Kingdom, The Netherlands, Denmark
 Russia
 Caspian Area & Central Asia: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.
 South America: Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela
 North Africa: Algeria, Libya, Egypt
 West Africa: Nigeria, Angola
 East Africa: Mozambique, Tanzania
 The Arabian Gulf: Qatar, UAE, Oman, Yemen, Saudi-Arabia
 Middle East: Iran, Iraq
3
N G P R – A 2013
ATURAL AS ROVEN ESERVES FRICA
200
182

180
159
160
140

t 120
e
e
F
100
c
bi 77.2
u
80
C
n 54.6
o 60
i
l
l
i
r
T 40 24.2
12.9
20 4.5
0.23
0

a t a a a e a
i p y a l i u c
ger Egy Lib geri ngo zan biq Afri
Al Ni A an m f
T a O
z
o st
M e
R
Source: www.eia.gov
4
N G P R – M E 2013
ATURAL AS ROVEN ESERVES IDDLE AST
1187
1200

1000
890

t
e 800

e
F

c
i
b
u 600
C

n
o
i
l
il 400
r 287.8
T
215

200
111.52
63.5

30 16.9
3.25 8.5
0

n r A E n n t q n a
Ira Qata KS UA Oma hrai uwai Ira eme Syri
a K Y
B
Source: www.eia.gov
5
R /P R – M E & A
ESERVES RODUCTION ATIO IDDLE AST FRICA
World proved gas reserves at 2012 were sufficient to meet 63.6 years of production.
Africa has an R/P ratio of almost 70 years, while The Middle East still holds the largest
re serves and has an R/P ratio of over 150 years.

Distribution of proved reserves - 2011
Reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios

Years

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012
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A ’ E D D
FRICA S NERGY EMAND RIVERS


Africa’s population is expected to grow from 1 bn in 2010 to 1.5 bn by 2030, at CAGR

of 2%, and almost 3 times World’s CAGR for the same period, being 0.7%.


The region median age is 20, compared with 30 in Asia and 40 in Europe.

Africa has the fastest-growing middle class.

Over the past decade, six of the world’s ten fastest-growing economies were African.

In the last ten years, while foreign Aid only grew from USD 20 bn p.a. to USD 28 bn
per year, FDI balooned from USD 20 bn per annum to USD 75 bn per annum.

Sub-Sahara GDP is forecasted to grow from USD 1.8 tn in 2011 to USD 2.7 tn in 2016
at a CAGR of 7.3% well above the World’s and MENA’s CAGR that are forecasted at
6.1% and 6.3% respectively.
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A ’ E D D
FRICA S NERGY EMAND RIVERS

9,000
8.0%

8,000
7.0%
7,000
6.0%
6,000
5.0%
5,000
4.0%
4,000
3.0%
3,000
2.0%
2,000
1.0%
1,000
0.0%
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
MENA World Sub-Saharan Africa
Rest of the World Africa
Population (Millions) GDP Growth Rate (%)
Source: United Nations Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)
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A G O
FRICA AS UTLOOK

5,000 255

232
199 
4,000 165 Natural gas consumption
132
109
growth in Africa forecasted
3,000 84
Africa
to reach a growth rate of
4,469
2,000 4,158 World
3,844
3,570 3.4% p.a. Vs. world’s
3,315
3,052
2,766
1,000 growth rate of 2.1% p.a.
0 
Up till 2030, Africa’s
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Natural Gas Consumption (BCM) Natural Gas production is
projected to record the
5,000
395
372
highest growth rate of 4.3%
342
4,000
311
p.a. Vs. world’s growth rate
272
218
3,000 174 of 1.9% p.a.
Africa
4,343
2,000 4,046
3,718
3,436 World 
3,189
2,946 Africa is expected to supply
2,621
1,000
more than 10% of the
0
World’s gas by 2030.
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Natural Gas Production (BCM)
Source: www.eia.gov
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M E G O
IDDLE AST AS UTLOOK
200 24
21.3 
Total natural gas
19.1
17
150 14.7 consumption in the Middle
12.5
9.8 East is growing by an
100 Middle East
168.7 average of 2.7% per year
156.8
144.4
133.4
123.1
112.9 Vs. world’s growth rate of
50 101.8 World
2.1% p.a.
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 
Industrial consumption of
Natural Gas Consumption (TCF)
natural gas in the Middle
28.8 East grows by an average
200
26.7
24.6 of 4.5% per year up to
22.3
150 19.7
2015.
16.2
11.3
100 Middle East

157.8 169.2 After 2015, industrial gas
145
133.8
123.6
113
50 99.8 World consumption growth slows
to a still robust rate of
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2.9% per year.
Natural Gas Production (TCF)
Source: www.eia.gov
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