FundamentalsofSupplyChainTheory Fundamentals of Supply Chain Theory Lawrence V. Snyder LehighUniversity Zuo-Jun Max Shen UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley Second Edition Thiseditionfirstpublished2019 ©2019JohnWiley&Sons,Inc. EditionHistory JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.(1e,2011) Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyform orbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recordingorotherwise,exceptaspermittedbylaw.Adviceon howtoobtainpermissiontoreusematerialfromthistitleisavailableathttp://www.wiley.com/go/permissions. TherightofLawrenceV.SnyderandZuo-JunMaxShentobeidentifiedastheauthorsofthisworkhasbeenassertedin accordancewithlaw. RegisteredOffice JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,111RiverStreet,Hoboken,NJ07030,USA EditorialOffice 111RiverStreet,Hoboken,NJ07030,USA Fordetailsofourglobaleditorialoffices,customerservices,andmoreinformationaboutWileyproductsvisitusat www.wiley.com. Wileyalsopublishesitsbooksinavarietyofelectronicformatsandbyprint-on-demand.Somecontentthatappearsin standardprintversionsofthisbookmaynotbeavailableinotherformats. LimitofLiability/DisclaimerofWarranty Whilethepublisherandauthorshaveusedtheirbesteffortsinpreparingthiswork,theymakenorepresentationsor warrantieswithrespecttotheaccuracyorcompletenessofthecontentsofthisworkandspecificallydisclaimall warranties,includingwithoutlimitationanyimpliedwarrantiesofmerchantabilityorfitnessforaparticularpurpose.No warrantymaybecreatedorextendedbysalesrepresentatives,writtensalesmaterialsorpromotionalstatementsforthis work.Thefactthatanorganization,website,orproductisreferredtointhisworkasacitationand/orpotentialsourceof furtherinformationdoesnotmeanthatthepublisherandauthorsendorsetheinformationorservicestheorganization, website,orproductmayprovideorrecommendationsitmaymake.Thisworkissoldwiththeunderstandingthatthe publisherisnotengagedinrenderingprofessionalservices.Theadviceandstrategiescontainedhereinmaynotbe suitableforyoursituation.Youshouldconsultwithaspecialistwhereappropriate.Further,readersshouldbeawarethat websiteslistedinthisworkmayhavechangedordisappearedbetweenwhenthisworkwaswrittenandwhenitisread. Neitherthepublishernorauthorsshallbeliableforanylossofprofitoranyothercommercialdamages,includingbutnot limitedtospecial,incidental,consequential,orotherdamages. LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData Names:Snyder,LawrenceV.,1975-author.|Shen,Zuo-JunMax,1970-author. Title:Fundamentalsofsupplychaintheory/LawrenceV.Snyder,Lehigh University,Zuo-JunMaxShen,UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley. Description:Secondedition.|Hoboken,NewJersey:JohnWiley&Sons,Inc., [2019]|Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.| Identifiers:LCCN2019015579(print)|LCCN2019018047(ebook)|ISBN 9781119024866(AdobePDF)|ISBN9781119024972(ePub)|ISBN9781119024842 (hardcover) Subjects:LCSH:Businesslogistics. Classification:LCCHD38.5(ebook)|LCCHD38.5.S62562020(print)|DDC 658.701–dc23 LCrecordavailableathttps://lccn.loc.gov/2019015579 CoverDesign:Wiley CoverImage:©RomoloTavani/GettyImages Setin10/12ptNimbusRombyLawrenceV.SnyderandZuo-JunMaxShen PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 ToSuzanne,Coralie,andMatilda –L.V.S. ToIrene,Michelle,andJeffrey –Z.-J.M.S. CONTENTS IN BRIEF 1 Introduction 1 2 ForecastingandDemandModeling 5 3 DeterministicInventoryModels 45 4 StochasticInventoryModels: PeriodicReview 87 5 StochasticInventoryModels: ContinuousReview 155 6 MultiechelonInventoryModels 187 7 PoolingandFlexibility 229 8 FacilityLocationModels 267 9 SupplyUncertainty 355 10 TheTravelingSalesmanProblem 403 11 TheVehicleRoutingProblem 463 12 IntegratedSupplyChainModels 511 13 TheBullwhipEffect 539 14 SupplyChainContracts 563 15 Auctions 591 16 ApplicationsofSupplyChainTheory 615 AppendixA:Multiple-ChapterProblems 643 AppendixB:HowtoWriteProofs: AShortGuide 651 AppendixC:HelpfulFormulas 661 vii viii CONTENTSINBRIEF AppendixD:IntegerOptimizationTechniques 669 References 681 CONTENTS ListofFigures xxi ListofTables xxvii ListofAlgorithms xxix Preface xxxi About theCompanionWebsite xxxix 1 Introduction 1 1.1 TheEvolutionofSupplyChainTheory 1 1.2 DefinitionsandScope 2 1.3 LevelsofDecision MakinginSupplyChainManagement 4 2 ForecastingandDemandModeling 5 2.1 Introduction 5 2.2 ClassicalDemandForecastingMethods 6 2.2.1 MovingAverage 6 2.2.2 ExponentialSmoothing 7 2.2.3 LinearRegression 13 2.3 ForecastAccuracy 15 2.3.1 MAD,MSE,andMAPE 15 2.3.2 Forecast Errors for Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing 16 2.4 MachineLearninginDemandForecasting 17 2.4.1 Introduction 17 ix