Fuel Systems for IC Engines

319 Pages·2012·93.507 MB·English

by  Institution of Mechanical Engineers (IMechE) (Auth.)

Fuel Systems for IC Engines
Combustion Engines & Fuels Group Organising Committee
Dr Roy Horrocks (Chairman) Ford Motor Company
Mr Bruno Annycke Delphi Diesel Systems
Dr Frank Atzler Continental Automotive GmbH
Prof Colin Garner Loughborough University
Mr Manolis Gavaises City University London
Mr Dennis Gill AVL List GmbH
Mr Philip Hore Ricardo UK Ltd
Dr Rainer Jorach J Eberspächer GmbH & Co KG
Mr Mike Kenhard DENSO International Europe
Mr Matthew Knight Robert Bosch Ltd
Mr Ian Larbey Robert Bosch GmbH
Dr Ralf Schernewski Robert Bosch GmbH
Mr Arun Srinvasan Robert Bosch Ltd
Fuel Systems for IC Engines
14–15 MARCH 2012
IMECHE, LONDON
Oxford Cambridge Philadelphia New Delhi
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First published 2012, Woodhead Publishing Limited
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Energy prognosis until 2030; reserves;
transport fuels

K-H Schult-Bornemann, Dozent
Otto-von-Guericke-Universität Magdeburg, Germany

A prognosis about the development of the worldwide energy demand and the
possibilities of the necessary supply has to take into account several factors. It is
not just the availability of primary energy sources like oil, gas or coal, but also the
development of the gross domestic product (GDP), inflation and energy efficiency
has to be assessed. The transport sector is still dominated by the internal
combustion engine, burning gasoline and diesel and will stay so for decades to
come. It has to earn the financial means for future development in the propulsion
area. Thus, it is nurturing its own competition. CNG, LPG, bio fuels, electricity, fuel
cells and hydrogen are either already in use or very heavy R&D-budgets are being
spent on these areas. Government support ranges from direct subsidies and tax
exemptions to regulations prescribing the use of certain energy sources, e.g.
biofuels. All of these primary energy sources are competing in several ways against
each other, not only in the area of automotive fuels. Because of this
interdependency a view on availability, price and future acceptance of all primary
energy sources has to be the basis for a closer look on fuels for transport purposes.

The most important part in each prognosis, though, is the human being, because
humans are deciding which energies are used in which way, e.g. by heating their
home, lighting it, cooking or how they are going to produce industrial goods like
cars.

POLITICAL INFLUENCE

Political decisions significantly influence future energy use and supply and have to
be accounted for just as the technical and economic development. Political
decisions are not always rational and may be changed very quickly. A prognosis is
something entirely different than a scenario. In a prognosis, sector by sector is
assessed and calculated regarding both availability and consumption. A scenario on
the other hand starts from a set of assumptions which are the basis for further
calculations, either in the upward or in the downward direction. Obviously the big
difference is that within scenarios certain desired outcomes are influencing the
basic assumptions and thus the results, both as limitation and driving factor. In the
prognosis on the other hand the technical, economic and political development will
be evaluated on the basis of probabilities. If that is done professionally, meaning
not influenced by political factors and desired results, generally they are a lot more
exact. In the last two decades the energy prognosis by ExxonMobil has proven to
be the most correct worldwide in retrospective. That’s why it is used here as a basis
for this purpose; it is a prognosis very similar to that of the IEA (International
Energy Agency). During its creation process it is permanently compared with other
research work, e.g. that one of CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates).

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© The author(s) and/or their employer(s), 2012
POPULATION

The most important factor looking at future energy use is the number of people. In
2011 we welcomed human being No.7 billion on this planet, in 2030 the 8-billion
mark will be reached. Non-OECD-countries account for 95% of the global
population growth, in many OECD-countries the population is stagnating or even
shrinking. Each of these humans is using energy. In the OECD-countries this energy
use is inseparably linked with our present lifestyle; the per capita energy use is
much higher than in the Non-OECD-countries. In the non- developed countries
there are still a lot of people energywise living more or less on a stone-age-level.
They have no access to modern energy. Today about 2.5 billion people are cooking
and heating with wood or dried animal dung, 1.6 billion people have no access to
electricity. All of these people are trying to increase their standards of living, as well
as the people in the industrial countries. In the poorer countries progress is
inevitably linked with higher energy consumption. It is therefore a safe prediction
that the mere increase of the global population will lead to a significant increase in
energy consumption. Moreover, the ongoing jump in light and heavy vehicles in
China and India will cause a considerable push in energy consumption through the
production of these vehicles and later on by their consumption.

WORLDWIDE GDP (+2.7 %) IS GROWING FASTER THAN ENERGY
CONSUMPTION

The second decisive factor is the economic activity of the human being. As soon as
the stone-age level is left and e.g. automobiles are produced, the GNP is growing.
The worldwide GDP will continue to grow strongly. In contrast to the growth in
population, the contribution of the OECD-countries to the increase of GDP will be
stronger than that of the Non-OECD-countries. In the period from 2005 to 2030 the
prognosis is assuming an annual growth rate of 2.7 % which has only received a
small dent during the economic crisis in 2008/2009. Previous experience shows that
the economic development always is going through cyclic periods; in the long run,
though, the GD-growth rate is surprisingly stable.

ENERGY CONSUMPTION IS GROWING BY 1.2 % P.A.

If you bring the two factors together – population growth and growth of GNP –
there is a nearly inevitable growth of the energy demand, very probably around 1.2
% p.a. By this figure, 1.2 %, which is notably less than half of the growth in GNP, it
is obvious that here a very important assumption has been made: the energy
efficiency will continue to grow very significantly. In the OECD-countries, in the
past decades a considerable contribution to the increase in energy efficiency has
already been achieved. This tendency will become even stronger in the future,
because a lot of different political incentives will support that development. You
may call energy efficiency the most important energy source of the future.

KEY FACTOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY

The energy savings in the period from 2005 to 2030 will amount to around 300
quadrillions BTU (British Thermal Units) if the present path of energy efficiency is
prolonged into the future. Oil will be the most important primary energy source
even in 2030 with an annual growth rate of 0.8 %. Even stronger, 1.8 % per year,
gas will grow and the energy sources with the strongest growth rate are the
renewables wind, solar and bio fuels. Nevertheless, their contribution to total
primary energy supply will remain small.
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ELECTRICITY GENERATION REMAINS THE BIGGEST PRIMARY ENERGY
CONSUMER

Most of the primary energy will be used for electricity generation, followed by the
consumption in the industry sector and only the third place is taken by transport.
The residual and commercial sector is taking the smallest part. Even in 2030 about
80 % of the energy demand is supplied by the fossil energy sources oil, gas and
coal, followed by biomass and nuclear energy. Germany is the only country in the
world which is presently reducing existing nuclear capacities, worldwide the nuclear
sector will grow significantly, even after Fukushima. The existing nuclear facilities,
though, are presently checked very thoroughly in many countries. Special attention
is given to external power supply, availability of emergency power supply and its
duration and protection against flooding, as all facilities are located near sources of
cooling water.

If you look at the oil consumption only, it is nearly completely used in the traffic
sector which will grow with a rate of 1.8 % per year. That is bigger than the
average of oil use, which will be at 1.4 % in the years 2000 to 2030. The oil
demand in the industry will grow by 1.3 % in this period, in the private homes by
only 0.2 %. In electricity generation, on contrast, oil is going down because it will
be replaced by other energies, especially gas. A significant part of this gas will
come from shale gas and formations with very tight pores, demanding special
production techniques, e.g. fracking.

OIL IS DOMINATING THE TRANSPORT SECTOR FAR INTO THE FUTURE

Oil consumption in the transport sector will be caused nearly at equal parts from
light and heavy duty vehicles, and the part of air traffic is equalling the marine
consumption. For rail transport oil plays only a very minor role. Presently, the
transport sector is using about 13 % of the energy in the world. In the year 2030
the transport sector will have grown to about 20 % of the worldwide energy use,
with oil staying the most important fuel. Through the influence of government
regulation the part of the bio fuels will have grown stronger, but even in 2030 the
amount of gas and bio fuels is dwarfed by that of oil in the transport sector. The
expected annual growth rate of 1.4 % in the period from 2005 to 2030 is already
assuming a considerable increase in energy efficiency.

LIGHT VEHICLE CONSUMPTION IS STAGNATING IN SOME REGIONS, HEAVY
DUTY PART IS GROWING

If you look at the different consumption segments within the transport sector in
more detail, the heavy duty vehicles running on diesel in every region of the world
will have the biggest part even in the year 2030. In some regions, light vehicles’
consumption is stagnating already now, mainly due to increasing energy efficiency
in this area, triggered -among others- by CO regulations. In spite of the certain
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successes in energy efficiency in the air transport sector, the prognosis sees a
growth of energy use in that area with an annual rate of 1.2 %. This is simply due
to the enormous growth of air traffic. Even stronger the marine consumption will
increase because the worldwide trade is more and more depending on marine
transport. Here the economies of scale are nearly unbeatable: Shipping one bottle
of wine from New Zealand to London is causing costs of about 10 Eurocents, one
bottle of wine from Burgundy to the same destination is causing costs of about 40
cents, both already inclusive insurance.

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LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES IN THE EU ARE NEARLY STAGNATING FROM 2015

Very interesting is the development in the number of light duty vehicles which in
the EU is nearly stagnating from 2015 on. The USA is still leading with about 280
million vehicles. The steepest curve is displayed in China as an example of the
BRIC-countries where an increase from 1 million vehicles in the year 1990 to over
100 million cars in the year 2030 already is and will be a remarkable development.
The development of the average consumption per car is worth a second look as
well. While in the USA during the influence of a special tax regulation that actually
supported the sale of SUVs, a permanent growth of the consumption per car could
be determined, this curve is already going down since the economic crisis in the
years 2008/2009.A new administration and the higher price, together with a higher
attention on environmental matters in the US has additionally contributed.

ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN THE USA 2030 STILL BEHIND OTHER REGIONS

In the transport sector even in the year 2030 the country with the most cars, USA,
has not caught with the EU or China in terms of the energy efficiency of new cars.
China is running up to the EU but still lacking a little bit. The energy efficiency steps
are even clearer if you look at the future energy consumption of light vehicles. In
the USA consumption is going down thanks to energy efficiency measures from
2010, coupled with an increase in bio fuels. Even stronger is the reduction in the EU
which started from a lower level in the first place. For the EU, it is safe to assume
that government regulations will lead to an increase in bio fuels. In China the
situation is entirely different. The growth in the number of cars is leading to a
growth in consumption in a nearly linear manner. The growth rate there would have
been even higher, if not for government regulation aiming at energy efficiency and
cleaner air as well.

LIGHT DUTY CONSUMPTION IN THE USA PEAKS IN 2015

Consumption of gasoline in light duty vehicles in the USA will peak about 2015 and
then decline by 10 % up to 2030. This will be more than compensated by the
growth in diesel consumption which is due to the higher transport capacity on the
road. Despite of this, in 2030 total fuel consumption in the USA will be lower than
today.

In Europe, the total fuel consumption will not grow from now on because the
reduction in consumption of light duty vehicles is so significant that it will
compensate the growth in diesel both on the road and on rail traffic. That is the
main reason why many refineries in Europe are for sale now or will be closed in the
near future.

China, in contrast, has a growth in all areas.

CAN THE ADDITIONAL DEMAND FOR OIL BE SUPPLIED FROM THE PRESENT
SOURCES?

Words like “peak oil” seem to signal the immediate depletion of the oil reservoirs.
This assumption is wrong, as a closer look shows. The growth of the proved
reserves in the last decades has always been larger than the growth in
consumption. This is the result of technological progress. Higher productions from
existing reservoirs, new reservoirs in areas that have been closed to earlier
attempts (deep see, arctic, Russia and China) as well as progress in pipeline- and
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production-technology, which allow commercial development of small reservoirs as
well, have been key to that development. Reserve development at natural gas looks
very similar.

Despite this development the alleged immediate depletion of all reservoirs has been
permanently used as a reason for the subsidised development of alternate fuels.
Therefore the correct understanding of the word “proven” or “proved reserves”
which is used in all reservoir figures, is important. In short, the following three
conditions have to be met to define a reservoir as “proved”. Only those reserves
are falling into that category which have been
a) proved by drilling,
b) can be extracted with today’s technology and
c) are economically viable at present prices.

These very restrictive criteria which have been developed by the American Security
and Exchange Commission (SEC) allow only a very small part of the known
resources to be taken into that category. Because the progress in all technical
developments in the exploration and production has not been slower but rather
quicker in the past, the reserves in the last two decades have always been growing
stronger than the production. In 2011, e.g. when the oil production practically
stagnated, the proven reserves were growing by around 3,6%(prel.).

While a purely static approach to the so called Oil- or Gas-Ranges (reserves of one
year divided by the consumption of the same year) is oscillating since decades
between forty and fifty years for oil and around sixty years for gas (including shale
gas, this figure is up to 250 years), the real range of the oil resources is lying at
some hundred years, even with growing consumption. Gas resources are even
bigger and coal is already today standing at four hundred years, even with a purely
static approach.

OIL WILL BE THERE WHEN WE DON’T NEED IT FOR TRANSPORT ANY
LONGER

To sum up, we will have oil in the future even when we don’t use it in the way we
do it today. Should oil e.g. in the year 2100 be completely replaced by other forms
of propulsion, it will be irreplaceable in the petrochemical area. That is why the
development in the exploration and production area will go on every day, as well as
in technology leading to a higher energy efficiency. The end of oil will come when
other forms of energy generation have taken over. The sentence of the former
Saudi Oil-Minister Sheikh Yamani, spoken about 20 years ago, is still correct: “The
oil age will not come to an end because of a lack of oil, exactly like the stone-age
did not end because of a lack of stones.” Oil will be there when we have found
other forms of energy supply, but it will be very hard to beat in the transport
sector.

ALL PRICE PREDICTIONS ARE WRONG

Because of the strong speculative influence on the oil price, any price prediction
would be speculative itself. Presently the prices are ranging between 95$ and 115$
per barrel. With this price all technically challenging exploration and production
investments are manageable from a financial point of view. That the time of the
cheap oil is over is evident in the face of much more difficult ways of finding and
producing oil (arctic, deep sea, deep drilling). The largest bottleneck for the future
of oil production is presently rather lying in the renationalizing of the oil industry in
some countries and in directing the flow of the financial means to capable investors.
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Capable in this sense means not only to be capable to round up the financial
means, but to abstain from short-turn oriented gambling instead of long-term
investments with pay-out periods counting in decades.
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