From the primaries to the polls: how to repair America's broken presidential nomination process

278 Pages·2008·1.8 MB·English

by  Thomas Gangale

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FROM
THE PRIMARIES
TO THE POLLS
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FROM
THE PRIMARIES
TO THE POLLS
How to Repair America’s Broken Presidential
Nomination Process
THOMAS GANGALE
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LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
Gangale,Thomas.
Fromtheprimariestothepolls:howtorepairAmerica’sbrokenpresidentialnomination
process/ThomasGangale.
p. cm.
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN978–0–313–34835–8(alk.paper)
1.Primaries—UnitedStates. 2.Presidents—UnitedStates—Nomination.
[1.Politicalconventions.] I.Title.
JK522.G36 2008
324.273(cid:1)15–dc22 2007036436
BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationDataisavailable.
Copyright(cid:2)C 2008byThomasGangale
Allrightsreserved.Noportionofthisbookmaybe
reproduced,byanyprocessortechnique,withoutthe
expresswrittenconsentofthepublisher.
LibraryofCongressCatalogCardNumber:2007036436
ISBN:978–0–313–34835–8
Firstpublishedin2008
PraegerPublishers,88PostRoadWest,Westport,CT06881
AnimprintofGreenwoodPublishingGroup,Inc.
www.praeger.com
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica
Thepaperusedinthisbookcomplieswiththe
PermanentPaperStandardissuedbytheNational
InformationStandardsOrganization(Z39.48–1984).
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
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CONTENTS
FiguresandTables vii
Preface ix
PART I: THE PROBLEM
1. AnyGivenTuesday 3
2. Hell-BentforElection 11
PART II: THE SOLUTION
3. AGradualProcess,aRandomSelection 33
4. PossibleConsequences 49
5. PathstoImplementation 65
PART III: THE COMPETITION
6. OtherConcepts 81
7. MajorLeague 95
PART IV: THE JOURNEY
8. AnIntellectualExercise 117
9. ARemarkableAchievement 127
10. ACallforReform 145
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vi Contents
11. RoadWarriors 161
12. TacklingTorres 177
13. CarryingCalifornia 207
14. PastPrologue 229
Appendix1:ModelStateBillforImplementingtheGraduated
RandomPresidentialPrimarySystem 251
Appendix2:TheGraduatedRandomPresidentialPrimaryand
CaucusAct 255
Index 261
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FIGURES AND TABLES
FIGURES
1.1: GrowthofPrimariesSince1960 9
2.1: TheIdesofMarch 13
3.1: 2012BaselineandMod2AGraduatedRandomSystem
Schedules 40
4.1: AnomalousEthnicDistributions,Simulation17 58
4.2: AnomalousEthnicDistributions,Simulation18 58
7.1: ComparisonofReformPlans 107
14.1: 2004and2008SchedulesCompared 243
14.2: 2000and2004SchedulesCompared 243
14.3: 1996and2000SchedulesCompared 244
14.4: 1992and1996SchedulesCompared 244
14.5: 1988and1992SchedulesCompared 245
14.6: 1984and1988SchedulesCompared 245
14.7: 1980and1984SchedulesCompared 246
14.8: 1976and1980SchedulesCompared 246
14.9: 1976ScheduleandAmericanPlanCompared 247
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viii FiguresandTables
TABLES
2.1: EthnicDemographicsofIowaandNewHampshire 17
3.1: FirstRoundEligibilityintheGraduatedRandomSystem 35
3.2: DemographicsofFirst-RoundEligibleJurisdictions 36
3.3: EarliestEligibilityforLargerStates 38
3.4: BaselinePercentofPopulationVotinginPreviousRounds 39
3.5: (Mod2A)PercentofPopulationVotinginPreviousRounds 40
3.6: 2012GraduatedRandomSystemSampleSchedule(Mod2A) 42
3.7: DateBonusDelegates 44
4.1: CompetitivenessofPresidentialNominationCampaigns,
1972–2000 54
4.2: EthnicDemographicsofPre-WindowStates 55
4.3: AsianandHispanicPopulationsofLargeStates 56
4.4: ChangesinPrimaryandCaucusDates,1988–2008 60
6.1: TaxonomyofPrimaryReformProposals 82
7.1: 2012RotatingRegionalPlanSchedule 99
7.2: HomeStatesofMajorPartyNominees,1988–2000 101
7.3: 2012DelawarePlanSchedule 102
7.4: AmericanPlan,DelawarePlan,andRotatingRegionalPlan 109
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PREFACE
Withluck,the2012presidentialnominationracesintheDemocraticandRe-
publicanpartieswillbeunlikeanyinrecenthistory.IowaandNewHampshire
will not have the disproportional influence that they have had traditionally;
ratherthatinfluencewillbetransferredtootherlow-populationstateswhere
alow-budgetcampaigncanengageindoor-to-door,retailpolitickingwithout
being swamped by advertising blitzes in mass media markets, it can get its
messageouttothevoters,scoresomeearlywins,andattractmoregrassroots
support and funding as the campaign moves on to more and larger states.
With the power of early and massive campaign funding hobbled in small
venues, shoestring campaigns will have a chance to grow strong enough to
takeontheBigMoneyinlaterstates.Thevotersintheselaterprimarieswill
havehadseveralmonthstoseeandhearthecandidatesviathenationalmedia,
and to decide. And, because so many of the states will hold their caucuses
and primaries late in the season, they will have a real decision to make. The
nominationsinoneorbothmajorpartiesmaynotbelockedupuntiltheend
ofJune.Indeed,thesummerof2012maywitnessaneventnotseeninmore
thanhalfacentury:anominationbattleatanationalconvention.
In a way, it will be a return to a brief moment in the past, to the early
yearsofthemodernpresidentialprimaryera.In1976,thefirstyearinwhich
bothmajorpoliticalpartiessubstantiallyimplementedtheMcGovern-Fraser
reforms,anobscure,formerGeorgiagovernorcameoutofnowherewithvery
littlemoney,andattheendoftheyearhewasthepresident-elect.Itwasalso
theyearthataformerCaliforniagovernorchallengedthesittingpresidentand
wagedabattleallthewaytothatsummer’snationalconvention.Thesegreat
political dramas played out across a four-month period, during which every
registeredDemocratandRepublicanhadanopportunitytocastameaningful