Framework for Assessing Dynamic Nuclear Energy Systems for Sustainability

271 Pages·2013·15.89 MB·English

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INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY
VIENNA
ISBN 978–92–0–140410–7 1
ISSN 1995–7807
IAEA NUCLEAR ENERGY SERIES PUBLICATIONS
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FRAMEWORK FOR
ASSESSING DYNAMIC
NUCLEAR ENERGY SYSTEMS FOR
SUSTAINABILITY:
FINAL REPORT OF
THE INPRO COLLABORATIVE
PROJECT GAINS
The following States are Members of the International Atomic Energy Agency:
AFGHANISTAN GUATEMALA PANAMA
ALBANIA HAITI PAPUA NEW GUINEA
ALGERIA HOLY SEE PARAGUAY
ANGOLA HONDURAS PERU
ARGENTINA HUNGARY
PHILIPPINES
ARMENIA ICELAND
POLAND
AUSTRALIA INDIA
PORTUGAL
AUSTRIA INDONESIA
QATAR
AZERBAIJAN IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF
BAHRAIN IRAQ REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA
BANGLADESH IRELAND ROMANIA
BELARUS ISRAEL RUSSIAN FEDERATION
BELGIUM ITALY RWANDA
BELIZE JAMAICA SAUDI ARABIA
BENIN JAPAN SENEGAL
BOLIVIA JORDAN
SERBIA
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA KAZAKHSTAN
SEYCHELLES
BOTSWANA KENYA
SIERRA LEONE
BRAZIL KOREA, REPUBLIC OF
SINGAPORE
BULGARIA KUWAIT
BURKINA FASO KYRGYZSTAN SLOVAKIA
BURUNDI LAO PEOPLE’S DEMOCRATIC SLOVENIA
CAMBODIA REPUBLIC SOUTH AFRICA
CAMEROON LATVIA SPAIN
CANADA LEBANON SRI LANKA
CENTRAL AFRICAN LESOTHO SUDAN
REPUBLIC LIBERIA
SWAZILAND
CHAD LIBYA
SWEDEN
CHILE LIECHTENSTEIN
SWITZERLAND
CHINA LITHUANIA
SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC
COLOMBIA LUxEMBOURG
CONGO MADAGASCAR TAJIKISTAN
COSTA RICA MALAWI THAILAND
CÔTE D’IVOIRE MALAYSIA THE FORMER YUGOSLAV
CROATIA MALI REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
CUBA MALTA TOGO
CYPRUS MARSHALL ISLANDS TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
CZECH REPUBLIC MAURITANIA
TUNISIA
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC MAURITIUS
TURKEY
OF THE CONGO MExICO
UGANDA
DENMARK MONACO
UKRAINE
DOMINICA MONGOLIA
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MONTENEGRO UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
ECUADOR MOROCCO UNITED KINGDOM OF
EGYPT MOZAMBIQUE GREAT BRITAIN AND
EL SALVADOR MYANMAR NORTHERN IRELAND
ERITREA NAMIBIA UNITED REPUBLIC
ESTONIA NEPAL OF TANZANIA
ETHIOPIA NETHERLANDS
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
FIJI NEW ZEALAND
URUGUAY
FINLAND NICARAGUA
UZBEKISTAN
FRANCE NIGER
VENEZUELA
GABON NIGERIA
VIETNAM
GEORGIA NORWAY
GERMANY OMAN YEMEN
GHANA PAKISTAN ZAMBIA
GREECE PALAU ZIMBABWE
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contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world’’.
IAEA NUCLEAR ENERGY SERIES No. NP-T-1.14
FRAMEWORK FOR
ASSESSING DYNAMIC
NUCLEAR ENERGY SYSTEMS FOR
SUSTAINABILITY:
FINAL REPORT OF
THE INPRO COLLABORATIVE
PROJECT GAINS
INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY
VIENNA, 2013
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STI/PUB/1598
IAEA Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Framework for assessing dynamic nuclear energy systems for sustainability : final
report of the INPRO collaborative project GAINS. — Vienna : International
Atomic Energy Agency, 2013.
p. ; 30 cm. — (IAEA nuclear energy series, ISSN 1995–7807 ; no.
NP-T-1.14)
STI/PUB/1598
ISBN 978–92–0–140410–7
Includes bibliographical references.
1. Nuclear energy — International cooperation. 2. Nuclear energy — Government
policy. 3. Nuclear energy — Evaluation. 4. International Project on Innovative
Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles. I. International Atomic Energy Agency.
II. Series.
IAEAL 13–00845
forEworD
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(GAINS)’, was one of them. This CP was jointly implemented in 2008–2011 by Belgium, Canada, China, the Czech
Republic, France, India, Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation, Slovakia, Ukraine, the United
States of America and the European Commission, with Argentina as an observer. The objective of the CP was to
develop a standard framework — including a methodological platform, assumptions and boundary conditions —
for assessing future nuclear energy systems (NESs), taking into account sustainable development, and to validate
the simulation results through sample analyses.
In the first stage of the project’s implementation (2008–2009), nuclear energy needs during the twenty-first
century were estimated, basic scenarios for the study were defined, essential data on current and future reactor
systems were compiled, and a heterogeneous multigroup model of a global NES was developed. In the second
stage (2010–2011), the results of calculations performed in the first stage using national and IAEA tools were
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ContEnts
SUMMARY ............................................................................ 1
1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................... 5
1.1. Background ................................................................... 5
1.2. Objectives and purpose .......................................................... 6
1.3. Participants and organization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.4. Report outline ................................................................. 10
References to Section 1 ............................................................... 11
2. PREVIOUS AND ONGOING STUDIES ................................................. 12
2.1. Background ................................................................... 12
2.2. General purpose studies .......................................................... 12
2.2.1. General fuel cycle and IAEA scenario studies ................................. 12
2.2.2. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development/Nuclear Energy Agency general purpose studies ................... 14
2.3. Special purpose studies .......................................................... 15
2.3.1. Red-Impact ............................................................ 15
2.3.2. PATEROS ............................................................. 16
2.3.3. Advanced nuclear fuel cycles and radioactive waste management ................. 17
2.3.4. INPRO joint study on closed nuclear fuel cycle with fast reactors ................. 17
2.4. Conclusions ................................................................... 19
References to Section 2 ............................................................... 19
3. HOMOGENEOUS AND HETEROGENEOUS MODELS OF A GLOBAL NUCLEAR SYSTEM .... 21
3.1. Introduction and purpose ......................................................... 21
3.2. Global and regional considerations ................................................. 21
3.3. Nuclear strategy group definitions ................................................. 22
3.4. Synergistic and non-synergistic groups .............................................. 23
3.5. Recommended multigroup model .................................................. 24
3.6. Additional scenario information ................................................... 25
4. INDICATORS OF SUSTAINABILITY FOR NUCLEAR ENERGY SYSTEMS USING
THE GAINS FRAMEWORK .......................................................... 29
4.1. Introduction ................................................................... 29
4.2. Highlights of the GAINS approach to defining key indicators and evaluation parameters ...... 29
4.3. Suggested key indicators and evaluation parameters ................................... 30
4.4. Conclusion and recommendations .................................................. 34
References to Section 4 ............................................................... 38
5. ESTIMATIONS OF NUCLEAR ENERGY DEMAND ...................................... 39
5.1. Purpose ...................................................................... 39
5.2. Analysis of long term energy and electricity demand ................................... 39
5.3. Nuclear power demand estimations ................................................. 40
5.4. Assumed nuclear power demand profiles in GAINS nuclear strategy groups ................ 42
5.4.1. Main steps in modelling nuclear power demand profiles for GAINS groups ......... 42
5.4.2. List of nuclear users for a century prospect ................................... 43
5.4.3. Group definition and consolidation of nuclear projections in groups ............... 44
5.4.4. Profiles for introduction of nuclear energy system components ................... 44
5.5. Conclusion .................................................................... 46
References to Section 5 ............................................................... 46
6. NUCLEAR ENERGY SYSTEMS ADOPTED FOR ANALYSIS IN GAINS ..................... 47
6.1. Background ................................................................... 47
6.2. Reactor systems ................................................................ 47
6.2.1. Light water reactors ..................................................... 47
6.2.2. Conventional heavy water reactor (‘H1’) ..................................... 49
6.2.3. Fast reactors ........................................................... 50
6.2.4. Other advanced reactor concepts in a uranium–plutonium system ................. 53
6.2.5. Thorium cycle reactors ................................................... 55
6.3. Nuclear fuel cycle systems ....................................................... 57
6.3.1. Once-through cycle system based on thermal reactors .......................... 57
6.3.2. Combined system of a once-through cycle and a fast reactor closed cycle ........... 59
6.3.3. Combined system of a once-through cycle and a fast reactor,
and/or an ADS/MSR closed cycle .......................................... 61
6.3.4. Combined system of a once-through cycle and a fast reactor (U–Pu)/Th closed cycle .. 61
6.4. Summary ..................................................................... 62
Reference to Section 6 ................................................................ 63
7. FRAMEWORK BASE CASES ......................................................... 64
7.1. Purpose ...................................................................... 64
7.2. General characteristics of framework cases .......................................... 65
7.2.1. Initialization data ....................................................... 66
7.2.2. Growth curves ......................................................... 67
7.2.3. Sources of variance in results for different codes .............................. 68
7.3. Homogeneous world cases ....................................................... 68
7.3.1. BAU ................................................................. 69
7.3.2. BAU with introduction of fast reactors (BAU–FR) ............................. 73
7.4. Heterogeneous world cases ....................................................... 85
7.4.1. Initialization data and growth curves for heterogeneous cases .................... 86
7.4.2. Non-synergistic cases .................................................... 86
7.4.3. Synergistic cases ........................................................ 94
7.4.4. Comparison of heterogeneous cases ......................................... 96
7.5. Base case comparisons .......................................................... 100
7.6. Summary ..................................................................... 102
References to Section 7 ............................................................... 102
8. SENSITIVITIES OF BASE CASE PARAMETERS AND
EFFECTS OF BREEDING AND BURNUP PERFORMANCES OF FAST REACTORS ........... 103
8.1. Background ................................................................... 103
8.2. Tails assay .................................................................... 103
8.2.1. Natural uranium consumption ............................................. 103
8.2.2. Separative work ........................................................ 103