Foreign Policy (September-October 2006)

112 Pages·2006·39.12 MB·English

by  Foreign Affairs

WHY PAUL BREMER WAS THE REAL WEAPON OF MASS DESTRUCTION
GLOBAL POLITICS, ECONOMICS, AND IDEAS
Are Empires Past Their Prime?
by Niall Ferguson
SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2006
ForeignPolicy.com
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The State of Empire
T
he historian Edward Gibbon once wrote, “Vicissitudes of fortune, which spares
neither man nor the proudest of his works, which buries empires and cities in a
common grave.” Gibbon penned those words about the decline and fall of the Roman
Empire, but he may as well have been talking about the state of empire today—one
instance of calamity, and the winds of history can suddenly shift the other way.
One such disaster occurred five years ago in the United States, when terrorists crashed
airplanes into the World Trade Center, the Pentagon, and a
rural Pennsylvania field. The attacks didn’t merely shatter the
tranquility of a crisp September morning; they shattered
America’s imperial sense of well-being. Suddenly, the world’s
most powerful nation didn’t seem so invincible anymore. To
mark the fifth anniversary of 9/11, FPexamines how that day
altered the American empire and the world. In this issue’s
cover story, FP Managing Editor William J. Dobsonargues
that what’s remarkable is how little the world has changed.
Although it was a life-changing moment for some, the
tragedy of 9/11 did not usher in a new era in the life of states.
Nevertheless, conventional wisdom holds that the terrorist
attacks were apocalyptic. In this issue’s Think Again, Uni-
versity of Michigan professor Juan Cole debunks the idea that
9/11 was a clash of civilizations, a victory for al Qaeda, or
a day that spurred a new direction in U.S. foreign policy.
Instead, the attacks allowed the Bush administration to carry out preexisting policy goals
under the banner of a war on terror. Ironically, the U.S. response to 9/11 didn’t actually
curb global terrorist attacks. In Prime Numbers, Kim Craginand Andrew Curielreveal
how, five years later, terrorism is on the rise everywhere, except inside the American empire
that declared war on it.
Nowhere has the surge in terrorism been more evident than in Iraq. After toppling
Saddam, the United States was supposed to build civil society and spread democracy. But
instead, the proper reconstruction of Iraq never had the chance to get off the ground,
argues Rajiv Chandrasekaran, the former Baghdad bureau chief for the Washington Post.
The process was marred from the very beginning by the imperial hubris of Paul Bremer
and his naïve minions at the Coalition Provisional Authority (cpa). “The cpa’s general
approach to postwar governance and reconstruction was to delve into minutiae from
hundreds of miles away,” writes Chandrasekaran. And its arrogance, condescension,
and disdain for meritocracy recall some of the worst elements of colonial empire.
Impervious rulers are, of course, nothing new. Historically, empires lasted for centuries.
In the modern age, empires seldom last for long at all. But as Harvard University histo-
rian Niall Fergusonargues, even though the age of empires may seem over, it could snap
back. “In our ever more populous world, where certain natural resources are destined to
become more scarce,” he writes, “the old mainsprings of imperial rivalry remain.” Will
the United States learn from empires past? It seems, no matter how much time passes, the
idea of “empire” always strikes back.
As always, we welcome your comments at www.ForeignPolicy.com.
The Editors
September|October 2006 1
C O N T E N T S
September|October 2006
04 LETTERSWalt and Mearsheimer fire back at their critics (cid:1) Drugging
up the developing world.
20 IN BOX Vaccinating the war on terror (cid:1) Buying votes at the U.N. (cid:1)
Happy math (cid:1) Plus, who’s guarding the guards?
SEPTEMBER 11—FIVE YEARS ON
22 The Day Nothing Much ChangedWe were told the world
would never be the same. But did 9/11 actually alter the state of global
affairs?For all the sound and fury, the world looks much like it did on
September 10. By William J. Dobson
36
26 Think Again: 9/11The attacks on the United States were neither
a clash of civilizations nor an unqualified success for al Qaeda. They were,
How Bremer and Co. made
however, a clash of policy that continues to this day. As al Qaeda strug-
Iraq the world’s most
gles to strike again, the United States wrestles with a confused war on
dangerous nation.
terror that won’t end until Americans are forced to choose between
Medicare and missiles. By Juan Cole
34 9/11 + 5 Five years after U.S. President George W. Bush declared
a war on terror, attacks and fatalities from terrorism are rising
around the world. The United States may be footing much of the costs
for the campaign, but the rest of the world is paying with their lives.
By Kim Cragin and Andrew Curiel
ESSAYS
36 Who Killed Iraq? After the invasion, the United States was sup-
posed to help Iraq become a model democracy. Instead, the arrogance
and incompetence of L. Paul Bremer and his team of naïve neocons only
helped Iraq become the world’s most dangerous nation. This is the inside
story of how it all went wrong—before it ever had a chance to go right.
By Rajiv Chandrasekaran GES
A
M
46 Empires with Expiration Dates Empires drive history. But GETTY I
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the empires of the past 100 years were short lived, none surviving to see ULLE
C
Wtheil dl tahwen U onfi ttehde Snteawte cse anntudr Cy. hTiondaa eym, tbhrearcee atrhee inro im empepriiraels d—esotfifniyc,i aalnlyd. D. MYLES
if they do, can they avoid the fate of those who came before them? : OP
64 By Niall Ferguson GES; T
A
M
Is the U.S.-Mexico border fence 54 The Kingdom’s Clock If Saudi Arabia’s new king is to stem the GETTY I
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a barrier or an invitation? It Islamist extremism inside and outside his kingdom, he must push OLSO
depends on where you look. through reforms that will outlast his own inevitably short reign. At 82 OTT
C
years old, King Abdullah’s time is already running out.By Rachel Bronson M: S
O
and Isobel Coleman OTT
COVER: DAVID BUTOW/CORBIS (BACKGROUND); B
AP WIDEWORLD (INSET)
2 Foreign Policy
22
58 The Sons of the Fathers In many Middle Eastern countries, The skyline has changed,
economic and political success hinges on succession. But are the but the forces that builtit
men groomed to follow in their fathers’ footsteps as committed to
continue to shape our world.
reform as they seem? By Parag Khanna
64 How Not to Build a Fence The United States may soon fortify
its border with Mexico. But what about the fence that is already there?
A close look at the disjointed, makeshift barrier reveals America’s
ambivalentand conflicted attitudes about immigration. By Peter Skerry
THE FP INDEX
68 Ranking the Rich Poverty is blamed for everything from terrorism
to bird flu.Rich nations have never sounded more committed to stamp-
D (INSET) Cinogm it mouittm oenncte taon dD feovre alollp. mIs eitn at lIl njudsetx h roatn akirs? 2T1h eri fcohu nrtaht iaonnnsu oanl CwGhDet/hFePr
ORL they’re working to end global poverty—or just making it worse.
W
DE
WI
AP REVIEWS
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UN 76 INOTHER WORDSThe Osama bin Laden I know By Fawaz A.
O
R
CKG Gerges (cid:1)Brazil’s man of action By Paulo Sotero(cid:1)Plus, what they’re read-
A
BIS (B ing in Jerusalem.
R
W/CO 84 GLOBAL NEWSSTAND New kid on the block By James G.
O
UT Forsyth(cid:1)What’s up, Kenya? By Alexandra Polier
B
D
DAVIP; 92 NET EFFECTThe first presidential podcast (cid:1) Will a Web site stall
FOR Russia’s wto membership? (cid:1) China’s cyberwar on Taiwan (cid:1) The 46
WER F Euro e-mail tax(cid:1) Plus, lexicographer Erin McKean reveals a few of the
M BO Web sites that help her define our language. Will the United States
BY TI MISSING LINKS learn the lessons of
N
O
ATI 96 Chronic Neglect A new danger is stalking the world’s poor: The empires past?
R
UST rich world’s own diseases.By Michael P. Birt
ILL
September |October 2006 3
[ L E T T E R S ]
Debating the United States fail to appreciate the
differences that exist even among
Israel Lobby
pro-Israel groups. Some groups in
the so-called “lobby” support Jew-
Moisés Naím “The War over Israel’s Influence” ish settlements. Others, such as
EDITOR IN CHIEF (July/August 2006) did nothing to Americans for Peace Now and the
William J.Dobson assuage my concern that aliens have Jewish Alliance for Justice and
MANAGING EDITOR taken over the bodies of John J. Peace push aggressively for a Pales-
David L.Bosco,Michael C.Boyer, Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt. tinian state and an end to the
Christine Y.Chen
After all, how could two realist “occupation.”
SENIOR EDITORS
thinkers suggest that U.S. foreign The same diversity of opinion
James G.Forsyth,Kate G.Palmer
policy has been influenced by a was on display over Iraq: It is a mis-
ASSISTANT EDITORS
domestic lobby? Doesn’t realist take to view pro-Israel groups as
Carolyn O’Hara
EDITORIAL ASSISTANT international relations theory teach monolithic on foreign policy. It is
Kelly E.Peterson that a state makes decisions based also hard to imagine that the Israel
ASSISTANT TO THE EDITOR exclusively on an assessment of the lobby played a significant role in
Aditya Dasgupta, international balance of power? the decision to go to war with Iraq
Benjamin Fryer, Don’t realists denigrate the “regime because of the mounting evidence
Kyle Spector
question,”denying that there is any that President George W. Bush
RESEARCHERS
difference between the behavior of decided on this course in the imme-
Travis C.Daub
a liberal democracy in the interna- diate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.
ART DIRECTOR
tional political system and that of a It was clearly on his personal agen-
Sarah N.Schumacher
DESIGNER more authoritarian government? If da long before any lobby could have
Christin Connors that is true, how can a domes- influenced him.
PRODUCTION INTERN tic lobby exert such influence Despite Mearsheimer and Walt’s
Thomas R.Stec on American policymakers? assertion, Israel and the United States
WEBMASTER Mearsheimer—an advocate of do share common values. Israel is a
“offensiverealism”—argues in his Middle Eastern democracy that
CONTRIBUTING EDITORS
Jacques Attali,Paris;Jorge I. Domínguez, Tragedy of Great Power Politics demonstrates a level of religious and
Cambridge, Mass.; Yoichi Funabashi,Tokyo; that those in authority are always ethnic pluralism unrivaled in the
Yegor T. Gaidar,Moscow; Andrés Ortega,Madrid
attempting to maximize the region. Its parliament is composed of
EDITORIAL BOARD power position of the United Jews, Muslims, and Christians. The
Morton Abramowitz, John Deutch, Lawrence Freedman, States relative to other states. public school system serves both Jews
Diego Hidalgo, Stanley Hoffmann, Robert D. Hormats,
Thomas L. Hughes, Karl Kaiser, Jessica T. Mathews, Donald F. Surely, then, shouldn’t they be and Arabs. Bush is intent on spread-
McHenry, Cesare Merlini, Thierry de Montbrial, Joseph S. Nye
totally uninterested in the views of ing liberal democracy throughout
Jr., Soli Özel, Moeen Qureshi, John E. Rielly, William D.
Rogers, Klaus Schwab, Helmut Sonnenfeldt, Lawrence Summers, any domestic group? the globe, and so his support of Israel
Strobe Talbott, Richard H. Ullman, Stephen M. Walt
It seems to me that if is entirely logical and best explained
PUBLISHED BY Mearsheimer and Walt are correct by his own convictions rather than
about the power of the “Israel the influence of any outside group.
lobby”—a contention I reject based —Shayna Abramson
on my own experience—they must New York, N.Y.
repudiate the realist theory of inter-
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1779 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036 throughout their careers. Mearsheimer and Walt’s argument
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www.ForeignPolicy.com Associate Dean of Academics of lobby” was any discussion of the
Electives and Directed Research
transformation of several Ameri-
©2006 by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Professor of National Security Affairs
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Simplistic assumptions about the erate anti-Semites as long as they
2003NATIONAL MAGAZINE
AWARD WINNER influence of the Israel lobby in the accept U.S. support for Israel. The
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ozzie
4 Foreign Policy

[ ]
Letters
former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Mearsheimer and Walt reject
Berlusconi—honored by the Anti- Zbigniew Brzezinski’s characteri-
Defamation League in 2003— zation of them as “in some respects
brought into his cabinet Gianfranco anti-Israel”on the grounds that they
Fini, a man who spent most of his “categorically support Israel’s exis-
Lauren Husted
adult life regretting the defeat of the tence.” Talk about defining down!
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Axis powers in 1945. Slovakia’s rul- Presumably, Mearsheimer and
Annette Munroe
CIRCULATION DIRECTOR ing coalition includes admirers of Walt think that any French citizen
the country’s Second World War dic- who accepts America’s right to
Zaina Arafat
BUSINESS ASSISTANT tator Jozef Tiso, who allowed Jews exist is pro-American. Whereas
to be sent to the gas chambers. those Americans who rant about
Amy Russell
Poland’s governing parties include “cheese-eating surrender monkeys”
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individuals whose attitudes toward are not really anti-French, because
Maria San Jose
Jews are, to say the least, ambiguous. they have no desire to see the coun-
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But as long as these governments try wiped off the map.
Jeff Marn back the Bush administration’s Mid- Why, of all the members of the
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dle East policy, they are given a free United Nations, is only Israel’s very
pass to tolerate anti-Semitism and existence still at issue? There seems
Lee E. Schenk
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All of which makes it supreme- at work in the minds of these two
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Call [phone].
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I was struck by the fact that, though
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Letters
try with a trillion-dollar economy
to pay for its own defense.
Cato.ru Presents Instead, South Korea’s govern-
ment operates a North Korea pol-
icy at odds with our own, while its
FREEDOM, youth take to the streets to parrot
anti-American sentiments at the
slightest provocation.
COMMERCE,
Have I made myself a member
of Mearsheimer and Walt’s
“lobby” by asking these questions?
AND PEACE
—Bennett Cin
Chicago, Ill.
A Regional Agenda The roundtable on the power of the
Israel lobby demonstrated one of
Israel’s great advantages. The par-
Tbilisi, Georgia (cid:1) October 25 – 27, 2006 ticipants assume that it is the Pales-
tinians who are the terrorists and
A special conference presented by the Cato Institute in association with
that it is the Israelis who are
the New Economic School of Georgia
responding to terror. On the sur-
SPEAKERS INCLUDE face, this argument is persuasive. If
KAKHA BENDUKIDZE,State Minister for Coordination of Economic the logic is accepted, all Israeli
Reforms,Georgia actions appear justified, and the sup-
ANDREI ILLARIONOV,former Chief Economic Adviser to Vladimir Putin port of the United States is sensible.
MART LAAR,former Prime Minister of Estonia Yet, that ignores the fact that
CRISTÓBAL MONTORO,former Minister of the Treasury of Spain the Palestinians have no other
ROBERT MUNDELL,Nobel Laureate in Economics response to the occupation of their
MARAT SULTANOV,Speaker of the Parliament,Kyrgyz Republic land in defiance of multiple U.N.
resolutions. The Palestinians are
doing what occupied peoples have
always done: resisting the occupier.
If there were no occupation, there
would be no Palestinian terrorists.
—Ralph Mitchell
Monterey Park, Calif.
Mearsheimer and Walt left three
important points unmade in the
rebuttal of their critics. First, con-
trary to Aaron Friedberg’s claim,
Israel is not an American-style
democracy. In America, “all men are
created equal.” In Israel, Jews are
born with inherently greater rights
than non-Jews, a distinction that,
one could argue, is a fundamental
reason for the current conflict.
For details and registration information
Second, Americans see Israel
English: www.cato.org,Russian: www.cato.ru
in a positive light in part because
1000 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. Washington D.C. 20001 the press censors itself where Israel
is concerned. Even the Israeli