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Foreign Policy (September-October 2006) PDF

112 Pages·2006·39.12 MB·English
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WHY PAUL BREMER WAS THE REAL WEAPON OF MASS DESTRUCTION GLOBAL POLITICS, ECONOMICS, AND IDEAS Are Empires Past Their Prime? by Niall Ferguson SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2006 ForeignPolicy.com To win International Law Firm of the Year, rank among the best everywhere. The American Lawyer F irst Litigation Department of the Year award (2002), finalist (2004), honorable mention (2005) Product Liability Litigation Department of the Year (2004), finalist (2005) Asian Legal Business International Law Firm of the Year for China Law (2005) Arbitration Law Firm of the Year for Southeast Asia (2005) International Law Firm of the Year (2003) North American Law Firm of the Year (2003) Bloomberg Top five, U.S. bankruptcy law firms (2001 and 2002) Number one for number of real estate M&A deals (2003–2005) The BTI Consulting Group, Inc. 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One firm worldwide. www.jonesday.com The State of Empire T he historian Edward Gibbon once wrote, “Vicissitudes of fortune, which spares neither man nor the proudest of his works, which buries empires and cities in a common grave.” Gibbon penned those words about the decline and fall of the Roman Empire, but he may as well have been talking about the state of empire today—one instance of calamity, and the winds of history can suddenly shift the other way. One such disaster occurred five years ago in the United States, when terrorists crashed airplanes into the World Trade Center, the Pentagon, and a rural Pennsylvania field. The attacks didn’t merely shatter the tranquility of a crisp September morning; they shattered America’s imperial sense of well-being. Suddenly, the world’s most powerful nation didn’t seem so invincible anymore. To mark the fifth anniversary of 9/11, FPexamines how that day altered the American empire and the world. In this issue’s cover story, FP Managing Editor William J. Dobsonargues that what’s remarkable is how little the world has changed. Although it was a life-changing moment for some, the tragedy of 9/11 did not usher in a new era in the life of states. Nevertheless, conventional wisdom holds that the terrorist attacks were apocalyptic. In this issue’s Think Again, Uni- versity of Michigan professor Juan Cole debunks the idea that 9/11 was a clash of civilizations, a victory for al Qaeda, or a day that spurred a new direction in U.S. foreign policy. Instead, the attacks allowed the Bush administration to carry out preexisting policy goals under the banner of a war on terror. Ironically, the U.S. response to 9/11 didn’t actually curb global terrorist attacks. In Prime Numbers, Kim Craginand Andrew Curielreveal how, five years later, terrorism is on the rise everywhere, except inside the American empire that declared war on it. Nowhere has the surge in terrorism been more evident than in Iraq. After toppling Saddam, the United States was supposed to build civil society and spread democracy. But instead, the proper reconstruction of Iraq never had the chance to get off the ground, argues Rajiv Chandrasekaran, the former Baghdad bureau chief for the Washington Post. The process was marred from the very beginning by the imperial hubris of Paul Bremer and his naïve minions at the Coalition Provisional Authority (cpa). “The cpa’s general approach to postwar governance and reconstruction was to delve into minutiae from hundreds of miles away,” writes Chandrasekaran. And its arrogance, condescension, and disdain for meritocracy recall some of the worst elements of colonial empire. Impervious rulers are, of course, nothing new. Historically, empires lasted for centuries. In the modern age, empires seldom last for long at all. But as Harvard University histo- rian Niall Fergusonargues, even though the age of empires may seem over, it could snap back. “In our ever more populous world, where certain natural resources are destined to become more scarce,” he writes, “the old mainsprings of imperial rivalry remain.” Will the United States learn from empires past? It seems, no matter how much time passes, the idea of “empire” always strikes back. As always, we welcome your comments at www.ForeignPolicy.com. The Editors September|October 2006 1 C O N T E N T S September|October 2006 04 LETTERSWalt and Mearsheimer fire back at their critics (cid:1) Drugging up the developing world. 20 IN BOX Vaccinating the war on terror (cid:1) Buying votes at the U.N. (cid:1) Happy math (cid:1) Plus, who’s guarding the guards? SEPTEMBER 11—FIVE YEARS ON 22 The Day Nothing Much ChangedWe were told the world would never be the same. But did 9/11 actually alter the state of global affairs?For all the sound and fury, the world looks much like it did on September 10. By William J. Dobson 36 26 Think Again: 9/11The attacks on the United States were neither a clash of civilizations nor an unqualified success for al Qaeda. They were, How Bremer and Co. made however, a clash of policy that continues to this day. As al Qaeda strug- Iraq the world’s most gles to strike again, the United States wrestles with a confused war on dangerous nation. terror that won’t end until Americans are forced to choose between Medicare and missiles. By Juan Cole 34 9/11 + 5 Five years after U.S. President George W. Bush declared a war on terror, attacks and fatalities from terrorism are rising around the world. The United States may be footing much of the costs for the campaign, but the rest of the world is paying with their lives. By Kim Cragin and Andrew Curiel ESSAYS 36 Who Killed Iraq? After the invasion, the United States was sup- posed to help Iraq become a model democracy. Instead, the arrogance and incompetence of L. Paul Bremer and his team of naïve neocons only helped Iraq become the world’s most dangerous nation. This is the inside story of how it all went wrong—before it ever had a chance to go right. By Rajiv Chandrasekaran GES A M 46 Empires with Expiration Dates Empires drive history. But GETTY I N/ the empires of the past 100 years were short lived, none surviving to see ULLE C Wtheil dl tahwen U onfi ttehde Snteawte cse anntudr Cy. hTiondaa eym, tbhrearcee atrhee inro im empepriiraels d—esotfifniyc,i aalnlyd. D. MYLES if they do, can they avoid the fate of those who came before them? : OP 64 By Niall Ferguson GES; T A M Is the U.S.-Mexico border fence 54 The Kingdom’s Clock If Saudi Arabia’s new king is to stem the GETTY I N/ a barrier or an invitation? It Islamist extremism inside and outside his kingdom, he must push OLSO depends on where you look. through reforms that will outlast his own inevitably short reign. At 82 OTT C years old, King Abdullah’s time is already running out.By Rachel Bronson M: S O and Isobel Coleman OTT COVER: DAVID BUTOW/CORBIS (BACKGROUND); B AP WIDEWORLD (INSET) 2 Foreign Policy 22 58 The Sons of the Fathers In many Middle Eastern countries, The skyline has changed, economic and political success hinges on succession. But are the but the forces that builtit men groomed to follow in their fathers’ footsteps as committed to continue to shape our world. reform as they seem? By Parag Khanna 64 How Not to Build a Fence The United States may soon fortify its border with Mexico. But what about the fence that is already there? A close look at the disjointed, makeshift barrier reveals America’s ambivalentand conflicted attitudes about immigration. By Peter Skerry THE FP INDEX 68 Ranking the Rich Poverty is blamed for everything from terrorism to bird flu.Rich nations have never sounded more committed to stamp- D (INSET) Cinogm it mouittm oenncte taon dD feovre alollp. mIs eitn at lIl njudsetx h roatn akirs? 2T1h eri fcohu nrtaht iaonnnsu oanl CwGhDet/hFePr ORL they’re working to end global poverty—or just making it worse. W DE WI AP REVIEWS D) UN 76 INOTHER WORDSThe Osama bin Laden I know By Fawaz A. O R CKG Gerges (cid:1)Brazil’s man of action By Paulo Sotero(cid:1)Plus, what they’re read- A BIS (B ing in Jerusalem. R W/CO 84 GLOBAL NEWSSTAND New kid on the block By James G. O UT Forsyth(cid:1)What’s up, Kenya? By Alexandra Polier B D DAVIP; 92 NET EFFECTThe first presidential podcast (cid:1) Will a Web site stall FOR Russia’s wto membership? (cid:1) China’s cyberwar on Taiwan (cid:1) The 46 WER F Euro e-mail tax(cid:1) Plus, lexicographer Erin McKean reveals a few of the M BO Web sites that help her define our language. Will the United States BY TI MISSING LINKS learn the lessons of N O ATI 96 Chronic Neglect A new danger is stalking the world’s poor: The empires past? R UST rich world’s own diseases.By Michael P. Birt ILL September |October 2006 3 [ L E T T E R S ] Debating the United States fail to appreciate the differences that exist even among Israel Lobby pro-Israel groups. Some groups in the so-called “lobby” support Jew- Moisés Naím “The War over Israel’s Influence” ish settlements. Others, such as EDITOR IN CHIEF (July/August 2006) did nothing to Americans for Peace Now and the William J.Dobson assuage my concern that aliens have Jewish Alliance for Justice and MANAGING EDITOR taken over the bodies of John J. Peace push aggressively for a Pales- David L.Bosco,Michael C.Boyer, Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt. tinian state and an end to the Christine Y.Chen After all, how could two realist “occupation.” SENIOR EDITORS thinkers suggest that U.S. foreign The same diversity of opinion James G.Forsyth,Kate G.Palmer policy has been influenced by a was on display over Iraq: It is a mis- ASSISTANT EDITORS domestic lobby? Doesn’t realist take to view pro-Israel groups as Carolyn O’Hara EDITORIAL ASSISTANT international relations theory teach monolithic on foreign policy. It is Kelly E.Peterson that a state makes decisions based also hard to imagine that the Israel ASSISTANT TO THE EDITOR exclusively on an assessment of the lobby played a significant role in Aditya Dasgupta, international balance of power? the decision to go to war with Iraq Benjamin Fryer, Don’t realists denigrate the “regime because of the mounting evidence Kyle Spector question,”denying that there is any that President George W. Bush RESEARCHERS difference between the behavior of decided on this course in the imme- Travis C.Daub a liberal democracy in the interna- diate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. ART DIRECTOR tional political system and that of a It was clearly on his personal agen- Sarah N.Schumacher DESIGNER more authoritarian government? If da long before any lobby could have Christin Connors that is true, how can a domes- influenced him. PRODUCTION INTERN tic lobby exert such influence Despite Mearsheimer and Walt’s Thomas R.Stec on American policymakers? assertion, Israel and the United States WEBMASTER Mearsheimer—an advocate of do share common values. Israel is a “offensiverealism”—argues in his Middle Eastern democracy that CONTRIBUTING EDITORS Jacques Attali,Paris;Jorge I. Domínguez, Tragedy of Great Power Politics demonstrates a level of religious and Cambridge, Mass.; Yoichi Funabashi,Tokyo; that those in authority are always ethnic pluralism unrivaled in the Yegor T. Gaidar,Moscow; Andrés Ortega,Madrid attempting to maximize the region. Its parliament is composed of EDITORIAL BOARD power position of the United Jews, Muslims, and Christians. The Morton Abramowitz, John Deutch, Lawrence Freedman, States relative to other states. public school system serves both Jews Diego Hidalgo, Stanley Hoffmann, Robert D. Hormats, Thomas L. Hughes, Karl Kaiser, Jessica T. Mathews, Donald F. Surely, then, shouldn’t they be and Arabs. Bush is intent on spread- McHenry, Cesare Merlini, Thierry de Montbrial, Joseph S. Nye totally uninterested in the views of ing liberal democracy throughout Jr., Soli Özel, Moeen Qureshi, John E. Rielly, William D. Rogers, Klaus Schwab, Helmut Sonnenfeldt, Lawrence Summers, any domestic group? the globe, and so his support of Israel Strobe Talbott, Richard H. Ullman, Stephen M. Walt It seems to me that if is entirely logical and best explained PUBLISHED BY Mearsheimer and Walt are correct by his own convictions rather than about the power of the “Israel the influence of any outside group. lobby”—a contention I reject based —Shayna Abramson on my own experience—they must New York, N.Y. repudiate the realist theory of inter- Foreign Policy national relations they have pushed Missing from the debate over 1779 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 throughout their careers. Mearsheimer and Walt’s argument Publishing Office: (202) 939-2230 —Mackubin Thomas Owens about the power of the “Israel Subscriptions: (800) 535-6343 www.ForeignPolicy.com Associate Dean of Academics of lobby” was any discussion of the Electives and Directed Research transformation of several Ameri- ©2006 by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Professor of National Security Affairs All rights reserved. Foreign Policyand its logo are trademarks can “Jewish” organizations into of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, which Naval War College bears no responsibility for the editorial content; the views Newport, R.I. Israeli ones. expressed in the articles are those of the authors. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form without permission These groups now happily tol- in writing from the publisher. Simplistic assumptions about the erate anti-Semites as long as they 2003NATIONAL MAGAZINE AWARD WINNER influence of the Israel lobby in the accept U.S. support for Israel. The GENERAL EXCELLENCE ozzie 4 Foreign Policy [ ] Letters former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Mearsheimer and Walt reject Berlusconi—honored by the Anti- Zbigniew Brzezinski’s characteri- Defamation League in 2003— zation of them as “in some respects brought into his cabinet Gianfranco anti-Israel”on the grounds that they Fini, a man who spent most of his “categorically support Israel’s exis- Lauren Husted adult life regretting the defeat of the tence.” Talk about defining down! ASSOCIATE PUBLISHER & GENERAL MANAGER Axis powers in 1945. Slovakia’s rul- Presumably, Mearsheimer and Annette Munroe CIRCULATION DIRECTOR ing coalition includes admirers of Walt think that any French citizen the country’s Second World War dic- who accepts America’s right to Zaina Arafat BUSINESS ASSISTANT tator Jozef Tiso, who allowed Jews exist is pro-American. Whereas to be sent to the gas chambers. those Americans who rant about Amy Russell Poland’s governing parties include “cheese-eating surrender monkeys” DIRECTOR, ADVERTISING SALES individuals whose attitudes toward are not really anti-French, because Maria San Jose Jews are, to say the least, ambiguous. they have no desire to see the coun- ADVERTISING SALES REPRESENTATIVE But as long as these governments try wiped off the map. Jeff Marn back the Bush administration’s Mid- Why, of all the members of the MEDIA RELATIONS MANAGER dle East policy, they are given a free United Nations, is only Israel’s very pass to tolerate anti-Semitism and existence still at issue? There seems Lee E. Schenk SYNDICATION COORDINATOR nostalgia for Hitler and his allies. to be an invidious double standard All of which makes it supreme- at work in the minds of these two SUBSCRIPTIONS & SUBSCRIBER SERVICES ly ironic that it is Mearsheimer and distinguished professors of interna- FOREIGNPOLICY, P.O. Box 474, Mt. Morris, IL Walt who end up being charged with tional relations, one which probably 61054-8499; www.ForeignPolicy.com; e-mail: anti-Semitism. The tolerance of the explains the many exaggerations [email protected]; (800) 535-6343 in U.S.; (815) 734-1235 outside U.S.; Publications mail agree- individuals mentioned above demon- and outright mistakes in their orig- ment no. 40778561. Rates (in U.S. funds): strates that this accusation is now inal working paper. $24.95 for one year; $44 for two years. Canada add $9/yr. for postage and handling; other regarded by the Israeli lobby as lit- —Menachem Kellner countries add $15/yr. For academic rates, go to tle more than the most convenient Professor of Jewish History www.ForeignPolicy.com/education. University of Haifa way to discredit critics of America’s Haifa, Israel ADVERTISING & FP Israel policy. CORPORATE PROGRAMS —Robert Dujarric Reading the roundtable on the Call (202) 939-2243. Tokyo, Japan supposed power of the Israel lobby, I was struck by the fact that, though NEWSSTAND AND BOOKSTORE DISTRIBUTION Professors Mearsheimer and Walt critics of Israel harp on the U.S. aid Curtis Circulation Company, 730 River Road, New Milford, NJ 07646-3048; (201) 634-7400. marshal enormous evidence to make the country receives, the more than a remarkable case that interest-group $2 billion a year that America has BACK ISSUES politics play a significant role in sent to Egypt since the 1978 Camp $10.95 per copy. International airmail add $3.00 per America’s Middle East policy, includ- David accords goes unmentioned. copy; online: www.globalnewsstand.com; e-mail: ing the origins of the recent war Egypt is a dictatorship disguised as [email protected]. against Iraq. Serious students of inter- a democracy and a country where MEDIA INQUIRIES national affairs will have to come to terrorists proliferate. (The lead 9/11 Contact Jeff Marn (202) 939-2242; grips with their argument, and I am hijacker, Mohamed Atta, was [email protected]. glad that there is now a proper Egyptian.) Is Egypt really a better SYNDICATION REQUESTS debate about their work emerging. investment for the United States Contact Lee Schenk (202) 939-2241; I have been amazed at the than Israel? [email protected]. charges of anti-Semitism leveled at And what about that other them, not only because they are beneficiary of U.S. largesse, South OTHER PERMISSION REQUESTS philo-Semites of the first order, but Korea? There are about 37,000 Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (978) 750-8400; www.copyright.com. also because this is exactly what they American troops protecting the predicted would happen. country from its northern neigh- PUBLISHED BY —Robert Pape bor. This commitment costs Professor of Political Science roughly $3 billion a year. It would University of Chicago seem reasonable to expect a coun- Chicago, Ill. 6 Foreign Policy ISN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND SECURITY NETWORK RunbyCSS Managing information, sharing knowledge The ISN is a leader in the international relations and security community providing free access to a range of high-quality information services The ISN offers Security Watch News Service In-Depth Analyses on Current Affairs Full-Text Publications, Case Studies and Working Papers Dossiers on Major News Topics Comprehensive Links Library Acronyms and Abbreviations Glossary Events Calendar e-Learning Courses, Consulting, and Technologies Make the most of our services www.isn.ethz.ch Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich The ISN is run by the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich [ ] Letters try with a trillion-dollar economy to pay for its own defense. Cato.ru Presents Instead, South Korea’s govern- ment operates a North Korea pol- icy at odds with our own, while its FREEDOM, youth take to the streets to parrot anti-American sentiments at the slightest provocation. COMMERCE, Have I made myself a member of Mearsheimer and Walt’s “lobby” by asking these questions? AND PEACE —Bennett Cin Chicago, Ill. A Regional Agenda The roundtable on the power of the Israel lobby demonstrated one of Israel’s great advantages. The par- Tbilisi, Georgia (cid:1) October 25 – 27, 2006 ticipants assume that it is the Pales- tinians who are the terrorists and A special conference presented by the Cato Institute in association with that it is the Israelis who are the New Economic School of Georgia responding to terror. On the sur- SPEAKERS INCLUDE face, this argument is persuasive. If KAKHA BENDUKIDZE,State Minister for Coordination of Economic the logic is accepted, all Israeli Reforms,Georgia actions appear justified, and the sup- ANDREI ILLARIONOV,former Chief Economic Adviser to Vladimir Putin port of the United States is sensible. MART LAAR,former Prime Minister of Estonia Yet, that ignores the fact that CRISTÓBAL MONTORO,former Minister of the Treasury of Spain the Palestinians have no other ROBERT MUNDELL,Nobel Laureate in Economics response to the occupation of their MARAT SULTANOV,Speaker of the Parliament,Kyrgyz Republic land in defiance of multiple U.N. resolutions. The Palestinians are doing what occupied peoples have always done: resisting the occupier. If there were no occupation, there would be no Palestinian terrorists. —Ralph Mitchell Monterey Park, Calif. Mearsheimer and Walt left three important points unmade in the rebuttal of their critics. First, con- trary to Aaron Friedberg’s claim, Israel is not an American-style democracy. In America, “all men are created equal.” In Israel, Jews are born with inherently greater rights than non-Jews, a distinction that, one could argue, is a fundamental reason for the current conflict. For details and registration information Second, Americans see Israel English: www.cato.org,Russian: www.cato.ru in a positive light in part because 1000 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. Washington D.C. 20001 the press censors itself where Israel is concerned. Even the Israeli

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