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Historic, Archive Document Do not assume content reflects current scientific knowledge, policies, or practices. < \ , /UW-7 a& r United States Foreign Agricultural Trade Department of Agriculture ^y of the United States Economic Research Service FATUS November/December 1992 Sales Information Foreign Agricultural Trade of the United States is available on a subscription basis. Subscription includes six bimonthly issues and two annual supplements. Subscription rates are $27 domestic; $33.75 foreign. Send check or money order payable to "ERS-NASS" to: ERS-NASS 341 Victory Drive Herndon, VA 22070 For faster service or more information, call 1 800 999 6779 - - - . Time to Renew? See renewal information on the back cover. List of Abbreviations Abbreviation Description Abbreviation Description Ag Agricultural MT Metric tons Anhyd Anhydrous NA Not applicable Cent plan Centrally planned n.e.c. Not elsewhere classified Chill Chilled NO Number Devel Developed Nonag Nonagricultural Dol Dollars OC Ocean £vap Evaporated Pac Pacific Ex Excluding Parb Parboiled Ext Extracts Pen Peninsula Fr Fresh Prep Preparations, prepared Froz, Frz Frozen Pres Preserved HL Hectoliters Prod Products Incl Including Prop Propelled Is Island(s) Prot Protein Mach Machinery Terr Territory Mfg Manufactured Unmfg Unmanufactured Misc Miscellaneous Veg Vegetable(s) Prepared by the Commodity and Trade Analysis Branch, Commodity Economics Division, Economic Research Service, U S. Department of Agriculture. Principal coordinators are Thomas A. Warden and Mary L. Fant. Lilia George provides word processing and table formatting support. Editorial support is furnished by Jim Carlin, Research Information Branch, Information Division, Economics Management Staff. Data processing support is provided by Sharlan Starr and William Meiller, Agriculture and Trade Analysis Systems Branch, Data Services Center. Foreign Agricultural Trade of the United States. Commodity and Trade Analysis Branch, Commodity Economics Division, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Digest U.S. Exports Second Highest Ever (see p. 2). Increased shipments of high-value products, wheat, soybeans, and soybean products led to a $4.8-billion increase in U.S. exports in fiscal year 1992. At $42.4 billion, exports reached their second highest value ever, surpassed only by the $43.8-billion value of fiscal year 1981. Imports Reach Record $24.3 Billion (see p. 6). The United States imported a record $24.3 billion in agricultural commodities in fiscal year 1992. A sharp rise in tobacco imports and smaller gains in cattle, grains and feeds, fruit juice, wine, and vegetable oil imports contributed to the increase. Canada was again the leading source of U.S. agricultural imports, followed by Mexico, Brazil, and Australia, the same as last year. Government Program Shipments Totaled $1.5 Billion in FY 1990 (see p. 9). Agricultural exports under concessional U.S. Government programs declined 1 percent in value in fiscal year 1990 (October 1989- September 1990) to slightly less than $1.5 billion, while volume increased 11 percent to nearly 8.1 million tons. Program shipments accounted for about 4 percent of total U.S. agricultural export value in fiscal year 1990. Wheat, corn, soybean oil, rice, and wheat flour were the chief commodities exported under the programs, and Egypt, Bangladesh, and India were the top recipients. Most of the concessional exports were shipped under P.L. 480, but significant quantities were also shipped under Section 416(b) of the Agricultural Act of 1949, as amended. 1 U.S. Exports Second Highest Ever The FSU, with the largest absolute gain of any destination, played an important role in determining the direction of change for U.S. Increased shipments of high-value products, exports by commodity. Gains in shipments to wheat, soybeans, and soybean products led the FSU came largely in wheat, but were also to a $4.8-billion increase in U.S. exports in reported for soybeans, soybean meal, and FY 1992. At $42.4 billion, exports reached vegetable oil. Exports of feed grains to the their second highest value ever, surpassed FSU slipped, however. only by the $43.8-billion value of FY 1 981. Wheat shipments were lower to much of Export volume also rose in FY 1992, from South America, and to Jordan and Tunisia. 1 27.8 million tons to 141.8 million tons. Shipments rose to virtually every other This was the biggest increase in export vol¬ customer, especially the FSU. Of the total ume since 1988, but well below the record increase of $1.5 billion, increased exports to 163.5 million tons in FY 1980. Volume gains the FSU accounted for $828 million. The were widespread among commodities in second largest gain came in sales to Egypt, a 1992. Wheat exports rose 28 percent and $ 1 61 -million increase. soybean shipments rose 27 percent. Together, these two commodities contributed Coarse grain exports were lower to Europe, 12 million tons in additional exports in FY the FSU, North Africa, and Korea. The 1992. The most important exception to largest decline came in shipments to the FSU, generally increased export volume was corn, which fell $233 million. Next largest was the with a 4-million-ton, 9-percent decline. $ 154-million decline in shipments to the EC. Cotton, rice, wheat flour, and pulse export However, increased sales to Sub-Saharan volumes were also lower. However, in addi¬ Africa and Latin America more than offset tion to wheat and soybeans, most products these losses. had increases in export volume in 1992. Oilseed and product exports were higher to By destination, the biggest U.S. export gain most destinations, led by a $563-million came in shipments to the former Soviet Union increase in sales to the EC. Exports rose (FSU). U.S. farm product exports to the FSU with total world trade, and the United States rose $933 million to $2.7 billion. The second achieved its highest share of the world and third largest increases came from market in 4 years. Lower supplies in South Mexico, whose imports of U.S. farm products America resulted in sales opportunities for rose $791 million, and Japan, up by $647 the United States. million. Exports were higher to virtually every destination, with gains of about $400 million In contrast with grains and oilseeds, cotton each reported for shipments to the European exports experienced a fairly sizable decline in Community (EC), Canada, Other East Asia, export value in 1992. With both losses in and Sub-Saharan Africa. export volume and prices, cotton exports sagged $422 million, a 16-percent decline Exports to Sub-Saharan Africa rose $396 from a year earlier. Exports to most million as drought reduced corn production in destinations declined, with the EC and Japan South Africa and other countries in the registering the largest drops. region. Shipments to South Africa were largely commercial purchases, while large Exports Sluggish in Real Terms food aid shipments were made to Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. While Although agricultural exports were the not the largest gain for any major destination second highest ever in nominal terms, they in absolute terms, the 80-percent rise in looked substantially less robust after shipments to Sub-Saharan Africa was adjusting for inflation. After adjustment, proportionally the largest. FY 1992 exports surpassed only 5 of the 2 preceding 20 years. If FY 1981's $43.8-bil¬ the entire decline in real terms since 1981. lion export level is restated in 1992 dollars, Nonagricultural exports outperformed even it balloons to $67.9 billion. The gap between HVP agricultural exports. The value of 1981 and 1992 exports widens, therefore, nonagricultural exports, although rising only from $1.4 billion in nominal dollars to $25.4 6 percent in FY 1992, totaled $377 billion, billion in inflation-adjusted dollars. a record high for the sixth consecutive year. Even when adjusted for inflation, the value This gap is entirely attributable to weakness was still a record high for the fifth consecu¬ in bulk exports. While exports of high-value tive year. Nonagricultural exports have been products (HVP's) reached a nominal record of a major source of the U.S. economy's $23.2 billion in FY 1992, bulk exports were strength in recent years, in marked contrast more than $10 billion below their 1981 to its role during the mid-1980's. (Stephen record of $29.7 billion. Even after adjusting MacDonald, Commodity and Trade Analysis for inflation, HVP exports were a record high Branch, 202-219-0820) in 1992, leaving bulk exports responsible for 3 Table 1 --Agricultural, nonagricultural, and total trade balance of exports and imports Item October-■ September September 1990/91 1991/92 1991 1992 Million dollars Agricultural exports 37,609 42,417 2,852 3,377 Nonagricultural exports 356,682 377,223 29,848 31,889 Total exports 394,291 419,640 32,700 35,266 Agricultural imports 22,588 24,323 1,802 1,933 Nonagricultural imports 463,720 487,554 39,314 44,286 Total imports 486,308 511,877 41,116 46,219 Agricultural trade balance 15,021 18,094 1,050 1,444 Nonagricultural trade balance -107,038 -110,331 -9,466 -12,397 Total trade balance -92,017 -92,237 -8,416 -10,953 Table 2--U.S. agricultural exports: Quantity (1,000 tons) of selected commodities, October-September 1990/91 and 1991/92, and September 1991 and 1992 October-September September Commodity group 1990/91 1991/92 Chanqe 1991 1992 Change -"I, 000 tons— Percent -- -1.000 tons— Percent Animal products 2,803 3,491 25 253 354 40 Meats and meat products 936 1,108 18 79 102 29 Poultry meats 628 795 27 50 76 52 Dairy products 43 172 300 7 23 229 Fats, oils, and greases 1,169 1,392 19 114 152 33 Other animal products 1/ 27 24 -11 3 1 -67 Grains and feeds 94,583 100,744 7 7,805 8,444 8 Wheat 26,792 34,287 28 2,499 2,465 -1 Wheat flour 987 816 -17 74 45 -39 Rice 2,395 2,279 -5 174 226 30 Feed grains 51,809 50,183 -3 3,983 4,628 16 Feeds and fodders 10,943 11,267 3 908 920 1 Fruit and preparations 2,372 2,890 22 197 223 13 Nuts and preparations 477 615 29 38 51 34 Vegetables and preparations 2,589 2,703 4 153 167 9 Oilseeds and products 22,295 28,642 28 1,506 2,117 41 OiIcake and meal 5,628 7,022 25 619 553 -11 Soybeans 15,139 19,247 27 730 1,363 87 Sunflowerseeds 86 105 22 5 7 40 Vegetable oils 1,051 1,650 57 113 154 36 Tobacco, unmanufactured 239 246 3 10 12 20 Cotton, excl. 1 inters 1,565 1,494 -5 36 58 61 Cotton linters 33 33 0 2 3 50 Essential oils 13 13 0 1 1 0 Seeds 514 701 36 107 75 -30 Sugar--cane or beet 589 492 -16 54 60 11 Other 32 34 6 3 4 33 Total 128,104 142,098 11 10,165 11,569 14 1/ Includes miscellaneous animal products but excludes live animals, hides, and eggs. 2/ Includes miscellaneous vegetable products and beverage bases but excludes fruit juices, nursery stock, and related sugi products. 4 Table 3--U.S. agricultural exports: Value by months, October 1989-September 1992 Month FY 1990 1/ FY 1991 FY 1992 Million dollars October 3,383 3,081 3,396 November 3,649 3,498 4,028 December 3,568 3,165 3,902 October-December 10,600 9,744 11,326 January 3,757 3,226 3,668 February 3,502 3,491 3,859 March 4,039 3,636 3,739 January-March 11,298 10,353 11,266 Apri l 3,348 3,146 3,706 May 3,262 3,092 3,156 June 3,232 2,653 3,234 April-June 9,842 8,891 10,096 July 2,770 2,929 3,262 August 2,944 2,841 3,090 September 2,765 2,852 3,377 July-September 8,479 8,622 9,729 Total 2/ 40,220 37,609 42,417 Monthly average 3,352 3,134 3,535 y Revised. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding Table 4--U.S. agricultural imports: Value by months. October 1989-September 1992 1/ Month FY 1990 FY 1991 2/ FY 1992 Million dollars October 1,824 1,923 1,939 November 1,851 1,901 1,878 December 1,750 1,810 1,948 October-December 5,425 5,634 5,765 January 2,021 1,930 2,051 February 1,999 1,869 1,938 March 2,148 1,962 2,132 January-March 6,168 5,761 6,121 Apr i l 1,898 2,074 2,157 May 1,991 1,966 1,988 June 1,817 1,884 2,109 April-June 5,706 5,924 6,254 July 1,803 1,760 2,372 August 1,727 1,706 1,880 September 1,732 1,802 1,933 July-September 5,262 5,268 6,185 Total 3/ 22,560 22,588 24,323 Monthly average 1,880 1,882 2,027 1/ Customs value basis. 2/ Revised. 3/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 5 Imports Reach Record $24.3 Billion percent to $870 million, but fruit juice volume declined by 7 percent. The United States imported a record $24.3 Two large import groups, meats and fresh billion in agricultural commodities in FY 1992. vegetables, declined in 1992. Meat imports A sharp rise in tobacco imports and smaller declined by 11 percent to $2.7 billion after gains in cattle, grains and feeds, fruit juice, strong increases the past 2 years. Beef wine, and vegetable oil imports contributed imports were down slightly, but pork imports to the increase. Canada was again the dropped by over 25 percent as higher do¬ leading source of U.S. agricultural imports, mestic supplies and lower prices dampened followed by Mexico, Brazil, and Australia, the demand. Fresh vegetables declined by 9 same as last year. percent to just under $1 billion on lower shipments of tomatoes from Mexico. Competitive Imports Continue Increase Noncompetitive Imports Rise for First Time Competitive imports rose 8 percent to $18.5 in 6 Years billion, the highest level ever. Much of the year's gain was attributed to unmanufactured Noncompetitive imports rose 6 percent to oriental leaf tobacco imports, which nearly $5.8 billion, the first year-to-year increase doubled ($1.3 billion vs. under $700 million since 1986. Weak commodity prices had in FY 1991, and volume was nearly 150,000 lowered the value of noncompetitive imports tons greater. The elimination of duties on over the past several years, but in 1992, oriental leaf tobacco under the Generalized strong volume increases offset continued System of Preferences (GSP) helped the rise weak prices. Banana import volume was up in imports. 7 percent, coffee 19 percent, and cocoa 10 percent. Bananas, cocoa, and coffee Imports of grains and feeds rose 21 percent accounted for $4 billion of total noncom¬ to $1.5 billion. Imports of biscuits and pasta petitive imports, with coffee being the largest totaled nearly $560 million, up 10 percent, at $1.8 billion, although down slightly from and feeds and fodders amounted to $275 the previous year. Both bananas and cocoa million, up 6 percent. Wheat and corn were increased by 10 percent. Rubber imports in¬ only a small portion of the grains and feeds creased by 14 percent to over $750 million. total, but their import growth was excep¬ tionally strong. Wheat imports more than Major Import Sources doubled to $166 million, and corn imports quadrupled, to $46 million. Ten countries accounted for 56 percent of U.S. imports of all agricultural commodities Wine imports increased by 16 percent to and nearly ail imports of certain commodities almost $1.1 billion, and volume rose for the such as meat, fresh vegetables, and wine. first time since 1985. Import volume jumped Those 10 countries were the same as last in June 1992 after the announcement that EC year, with some repositioning after the fourth wines were targeted for prohibitive tariffs if a spot (see table 5). settlement was not reached in the oilseeds dispute. The United States imported $3.9 billion worth of commodities from Canada, an increase of Several other import commodity groups had 22 percent over the previous year. In FY strong growth in 1992. Cattle imports rose 1992, the animals and products group, pri¬ by 18 percent to $1.1 billion, although vol¬ marily cattle, beef, and pork, was the largest ume declined by nearly 50,000 head. Vege¬ import group at $1.8 billion, grains and feeds table oils, primarily olive, rapeseed, coconut, followed at $740 million, and oilseeds and and palm kernel, rose 21 percent to over products were third at $312 million. $900 million. Fruit juice imports were up 18 6