Food-Climate Interactions: Proceedings of an International Workshop held in Berlin (West), December 9–12, 1980

517 Pages·1981·33.39 MB·English

by  Stephen H. Schneider, Wilfrid Bach (auth.), Wilfrid Bach, Jürgen Pankrath, Stephen H. Schneider (eds.)

FOOD-CLIMATE INTERACTIONS
Food -Climate
Interactions
Proceedings of an International Workshop held in
Berlin (West), December 9-12,1980
Edited by
WILFRID BACH
Center for Applied Climatology and Environmental Studies,
University of Munster, Germany
JURGEN PANKRATH
Federal Environmental Agency, Berlin (West)
and
STEPHEN H. SCHNEIDER
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, U.S.A.
D. Reidel Publishing Company
Dordrecht: HoHand / Boston: U.S.A. / London: England
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Main entry under title:
Food-climate interactions.
Includes index.
1. Food supply-Congresses. 2. Famines-Congresses.
3. Food crops-Climatic factors-Congresses. I. Bach, Wilfrid.
II. Pankrath, Jurgen. III. Schneider, Stephen Henry.
HD9000.5.F5945 338.1'9 81-17755
AACR2
ISBN-13: 978-90-277-1354-4 e-ISBN-13: 978-94-009-8563-6
DOl: 10.1007/978-94-009-8563-6
Published by D. Reidel Publishing Company
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All Rights Reserved
Copyright © 1981 by D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Holland
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
FOREWORD vii-ix
PREFACE xi-xiii
WORKING GROUP REPORTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS xv-xxv
LIST OF AUTHORS AND PARTICIPANTS xxvii-xxx
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT XXXl
PART I / OVERVIEW
S. H. SCHNEIDER and W. BACH / Interactions of Food and
Climate: Issues and Policy Considerations
L. E. SLATER / Dimensions of the World Food and Climate
Problem 21
PART II/WORLD FOOD DEMAND AND SUPPLY - PRESENT AND FUTURE
J. A. PINO, R. W. CUMMINGS, Jr. and G. H. TOENNIESSEN /
World Food Needs and Prospects 47
G. BORGSTROM / Population Growth, Nutrition and Food Supply 69
C. N. HODGES, M. R. FONTES, E. P. GLENN, S. KATZEN and
L. B. COLVIN / Seawater-Based Agriculture as a Food
Production Defense against Climate Variability 81
H. VON LOESCH / Agricultural Development Prospects until
the Year 2000 101
Discussion 117
PART III/CLIMATIC VARIABILITY AND FOOD PRODUCTION
J. D. McqUIGG / Climate Variability and Crop Yield in
High and Low Temperate Regions 121
L. D. SWINDALE, S. M. VIRMANI and M. V. K. SIVAKUMAR /
Climatic Variability and Crop Yields in the
Semi-Arid Tropics 139
C. F. COOPER / Climatic Variability and Sustainability
of Crop Yield in the Moist Tropics 167
J. E. BARDACH and R. M. SANTERRE / Climate and Aquatic Food
Production 187
Discussion 235
vi TABLE OF CONTENTS
PART IV / VULNERABILITY OF FOOD SUPPLIES
G. LINDH / Water Resources and Food Supply 239
E. G. HALLSWORTH / Soil Management and the Food Supply 261
F. KLINGAUF / Interrelations between Pests and Climatic
Factors 285
D. PIMENTEL / Food, Energy, and Climate Change 303
G. P. HEKSTRA / Towards a Conservation Strategy to Retain
World Food and Biosphere Options 325
Discussion 361
PART V / ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE/FOOD INTERACTIONS
K. HEGER / Basic Data Requirements - Experience with the
World Wheat Experiment of the World Meteorological
Organization 367
C. M. SAKAMOTO / The Technology of Crop/Weather Modeling 383
J. NAMIAS / State of the Art of Predicting Short Period
Climatic Variations 399
H. FLOHN / Climatic Variability and Coherence in Time and
Space 423
Discussion 443
PART VI/POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF FOOD/CLIMATE INTERACTIONS
P. SPITZ / Economic Consequences of Food/Climate Variability 447
W. P. THALWITZ / Strategies to Deal with Climate/Food
Interactions in Developed Countries 465
W. TREITZ / Strategies to Increase Food Production in
Developing Countries 477
Discussion 481
INDEX 487
FOREWORD
The present workshop is the third of a series of interna
tional conferences carried out within the framework of a research
project on behalf of the Federal Minister of the Interior. Under
this project, entitled "Impacts of Air Pollution on Climate",
the Federal Environmental Agency (Umweltbundesamt) has sponsored
so far:
an international conference on "Man's Impact on Climate"
at Berlin in June 1978,
an international workshop on "Energy/Climate Interactions"
at MUnster in March 1980; and
an international workshop on "Food/Climate Interactions"
at Berlin in December 1980, the results of which are pre
sented in this book.
Based on the Federal Environmental Agency's report on "Im
pacts of Air Pollution on Climate", on November 11, 1979, the
Federal Cabinet approved a climate research programme of the
Federal Government. Details of the programme are being vlOrked
out by a committee on climate research under the chairmanship
of the president of the German Weather Service with the execu
tive office placed in the Federal Environmental Agency.
This demonstrates that, by establishing a nationally co-or
dinated climate research programme, the Federal Government re
cognizes the importance of climate to the national economy. There
fore the Federal Republic of Germany intents to contribute appro
priately both to the comprehensive international programme of
the United Nations on Climate and Environment, as represented
by UNEP and WHO, and to the Climate Research Programme of the
Commission of the European Communities.
In his "Report on the Impacts of Air Pollution on the Glo
bal Climate" the Federal Minister of the Interior emphasizes
especially the present state of knowledge regarding the long
term accumulation of carbon dioxide and other air pollutants
in the atmosphere and their impact on the world's climate.
Highlights of the report are:
"The scientific uncertainties concerning the nature and
extent of climate changes are still so great that, for
the time being, it is not advisable to take any counter
vailing measures. Nevertheless, there is a worldwide ne-
vii
W. Bach, J. Pankrath, and S. H. Schneider (eds.), Food-Climate Interactions, vii-ix.
Copyright © 1981 by D. Reidel Publishing Company.
FOREWORD
viii
cessity to clarify, as soon as possible, the complex con
nexions and consequences. Especially troublesome is the
variability of climate, since it may have a considerable
impact on world food production."
In view of the development of the world's population, food
production seems to be of decisive importance for securing our
future. According to recent UN estimates world population was
ca. 4.4 billion in 1979. The rate of world population increase
between 1960 and 1978 has been between 1.9 to 2 % per year. Based
on this relative constancy a world population of more than 6
billion may be expected by the year 2000.
Unlike the increasing population trend, the production of
agricultural goods is steadily decreasing. At present, world
wide some 50,000 km2 of agricultural land are lost annually to
erosion and construction, while at the same time, the reclama
tion of land entails steadily increasing costs. It is an illu
sion to think that further increases in production may balance
the land losses. Agricultural production is increasingly based
on external energy for running the machines and for producing
the fertilizers and insecticides.
The problems to supply the world adequately with food are
difficult enough even without any climate changes caused by
man's activities. Such climate changes are believed to be due
to the increase in atmospheric C0 as a result of fossil fuel
0
burning thereby leading both to gIobal and regional changes in
temperature and precipitation.
At present, about 20 % of the world's population suffer
from undernutrition and malnutrition. In the 1950s the develop
ing countries had to import only small amounts of cereals. In
the 1960s, however, these imports reached 20 million tons, and
in the early 1970s they have increased from 50 million tons to
80 million t.ons - accompanied by steadily increasing prices.
We may therefore expect in the decades ahead that climate
changes, due to human activities, will lead to considerable so
cia-economic and political difficulties allover the world be
cause of the increasing vulnerability of the international eco
nomy. Even under "normal" conditions and inSignificant climate
fluctuations grain losses and decreasing fish catches can be
observed.
Therefore, it is very important to increase the research
efforts over several decades regarding the socio-economic ef
fects of natural and anthropogenic climate impacts placing spe
cial emphasis on the world's food and energy needs. Research
FOREWORD
is particularly needed in those areas which are concerned with
the development of strategies of avoiding, compensating or ad
justing to climate changes. In 1979 only 4 billion $ were spent
worldwide for agricultural research. Despite this it is hoped
that the international activities of the United Nations (FAa,
WHO and others), the North South Commission and other bodies
can continue their work successfully. Within the given scope
the results of this workshop may provide valuable ideas for fur
ther action.
The Federal Environmental Agency acknowledges, with grati
tude, the efforts of Professor Wilfrid Bach from the Universi
ty of Munster in developing and organizing, and of the Aspen
Institute, Berlin, in hosting this workshop.
Dr. Heinrich von Lersner
President
Umweltbundesamt
PREFACE
One of the most serious problems facing mankind today invol
ves our ability to meet the increasing demand for food of an in
creasing world population. Providing the world with sufficient
food is a monumental task that depends on a host of interrelated
physical and societal factors, of which climate is only one. The
complex social and political constraints are most obvious in the
developing countries "lhere the social structure often does not
allow the small farmers access to adequate financing to make use
of appropriate technology and other inputs that can minimize his
risks and thereby increase food production. The main problem is
to find social and political mechanisms that will enable millions
of undernourished people to obtain the food that is presently
beyond their reach.
All of these problems are exacerbated by weather and climate
effects which are significant causes of food production short
falls. Farmers must therefore learn to cope more effectively with
the adverse impacts of climatic hazards such as droughts, floods
and frost, and governments must work to maintain food security
for their people in the face of climatic variations that affect
food production. But climate is also an agricultural resource
that provides water and solar energy, shaping and conditioning
the environment in y,hich food is produced, stored, and distribu
ted. By using climatic resources effectively, farmers can increase
food production in years of favorable climatic conditions, and
governments can protect consumers from food shortages and price
spirals.
The mix of natural and social scientists at the workshop,
which led to this volume, produced papers and group conclusions
that would have been difficult to arrive at without significant
cross-disciplinary interactions. For' example, it is found - and
reported in the "Climate as a Hazard" workihg group statement -
that there is a serious mismatch between the erratic patterns
of climatic fluctuation and the often rigid annual credit cycle
tbat provides capital for farmers to finance their operations.
If two or more years of bad growing weather occur in succession,
farmers can be left with too little money to pay for enough fer
tilizer and other inputs to raise a good crop the following year.
This prolongs the period of low production and keeps consumer
prices high. It is urgent to develop ways to make agricultural
credit available on flexible terms that can be adjusted to clima
tic conditions. This problem, it was found, is not divisive, as
xi
W. Bach, J. Pankrath, and S. H. Schneider (eds.), Food-Climate Interactions, xi-xiii.
Copyright © 1981 by D. Reidel Publishing Company.
xii PREFACE
it exists in both developed and developing countries. Moreover,
mitigating the short-term risks of climate is also important
for the long-term development of food productivity, that is,
short-term climatic hazards create financial risks to producers
which can reduce their investments in production inputs (e.g.
fertilizers or appropriate technologies). These inputs, in turn,
can raise long-term productivity of food systems. Therefore,
it is important that policies be implemented both to reduce short
term climatic hazards and to increase long-term productivity
by more effective use of climatic resources.
Individual papers are contained in this volume dealing in
various levels of detail with most of the important food/climate
interactions. Among the key issues presented in these papers
are: the role of population size; nutritional levels; foreign
aid, both technical, financial and food itself; systems of social
and food security; access to emergency food stocks; access to
necessary inputs for high yields; preserving genetic diversity
of food crops; conserving genetic resources; developing appropri
ate new crop strains; insuring the sustainability of long-term
food productivity through ecologically sound agricultural practi
ces; exploiting and developing sustainable aquaculture and fishing;
and dissemination of existing climatic information for timely
use by food producers.
In addition, the workshop participants recommended that
new policies be developed and implemented in the following areas:
Providing, on a regional basis, mechanisms that maintain
food security for consumers and financial security for pro
ducers despite the fluctuations of climate;
Financing food production to match the irregular fluctuations
of climate;
Providing crop insurance;
Establishing forecasting centers to provide early warnjngs
of impending food shortages on a regional basis;
Establishing research and development pilot projects on
ecologically sustainable food production practices for each
region of the world;
Developing and testing fqrming techniques that minimize
inputs of energy and chemicals.
Finally, it is well to realize that, although presently
east-west tensions capture the front page of the news, it will
be rather the north-south relationship which will play the deci
sive role in world security and world peace in the coming deca
des. In the interest of all it is imperative that the blatant