Food and Agriculture in Ethiopia: Progress and Policy Challenges

377 Pages·2013·3.59 MB·English

by  Paul Dorosh

Food and Agriculture in Ethiopia
This book is published by the University of Pennsylvania Press
(UPP) on behalf of the International Food Policy Research Institute
(IFPRI) as part of a joint-publication series. Books in the series pre-
sent research on food security and economic development with the
aim of reducing poverty and eliminating hunger and malnutrition
in developing nations. They are the product of peer-reviewed IFPRI
research and are selected by mutual agreement between the parties
for publication under the joint IFPRI-UPP imprint.
Food and Agriculture
in Ethiopia
Progress and Policy Challenges
EDITED BY PAUL A. DOROSH AND SHAHIDUR RASHID
Published for the International Food Policy Research Institute
University of Pennsylvania Press
Philadelphia
Copyright © 2012 International Food Policy Research Institute
All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations used for purposes of review or scholarly citation,
none of this book may be reproduced in any form by any means without written permission from
the publisher.
Published by
University of Pennsylvania Press
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104-4112
www.upenn.edu/pennpress
A Cataloging-in-Publication record is available from the Library of Congress.
Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Contents
List of Figures vii
List of Tables ix
List of Boxes xv
Foreword xvii
Acknowledgments xix
Acronyms and Abbreviations xxiii
Glossary xxvii
1 Introduction 1
PAUL DOROSH AND SHAHIDUR RASHID
PART I Overview and Analysis of Ethiopia’s Food Economy
2 Ethiopian Agriculture: A Dynamic Geographic Perspective 21
JORDAN CHAMBERLIN AND EMILY SCHMIDT
3 Crop Production in Ethiopia: Regional Patterns and Trends 53
ALEMAYEHU SEYOUM TAFFESSE, PAUL DOROSH,
AND SINAFIKEH ASRAT GEMESSA
4 Seed, Fertilizer, and Agricultural Extension in Ethiopia 84
DAVID J. SPIELMAN, DAWIT KELEMEWORK MEKONNEN,
AND DAWIT ALEMU
5 Policies and Performance of Ethiopian Cereal Markets 123
SHAHIDUR RASHID AND ASFAW NEGASSA
6 Livestock Production and Marketing 159
ASFAW NEGASSA, SHAHIDUR RASHID,
BERHANU GEBREMEDHIN, AND ADAM KENNEDY
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vi Contents
7 Patterns in Foodgrain Consumption and Calorie Intake 190
GUUSH BERHANE, LINDEN MCBRIDE, KIBROM TAFERE HIRFRFOT,
AND SENESHAW TAMIRU
PART II Major Agricultural and Food Policy Interventions
in Ethiopia
8 Implications of Accelerated Agricultural Growth for Household
Incomes and Poverty in Ethiopia: A General Equilibrium Analysis 219
PAUL DOROSH AND JAMES THURLOW
9 Disaster Response and Emergency Risk Management in Ethiopia 256
JOHN GRAHAM, SHAHIDUR RASHID, AND MEHRAB MALEK
10 Targeting Food Security Interventions in Ethiopia: The Productive
Safety Net Programme 280
SARAH COLL-BLACK, DANIEL O. GILLIGAN, JOHN HODDINOTT, NEHA KUMAR,
ALEMAYEHU SEYOUM TAFFESSE, AND WILLIAM WISEMAN
11 The Evolving Role of Agriculture in Ethiopia’s Economic
Development 318
PAUL DOROSH
Contributors 329
Index 335
Figures
2.1 Characteristics of rainfall and altitude 23
2.2 Dominant cereals in Ethiopia 25
2.3 Map of woreda domain assignments, 1994 30
2.4 Map of woreda domain assignments, 2007 31
2.5 Travel time to a city, 1994 and 2007 35
2.6 Fixed-line and cellular telephones, 2003, 2008, 2009, and 2010 39
3.1 Shares of area cultivated, by farm size and agroecology, 2007/08 57
3.2 Per capita cereal consumption and imports, 1961/62–2008/09 64
4.1 Total and per capita grain production and grain yields,
1991/92–2007/08 89
4.2 Area under improved seed application and quantity of improved seed
distributed, cereals only, 1993/94–2007/08 93
4.3 Area under improved seed application, main cereal crops,
1995/96–2007/08 95
4.4 A schematic of the Ethiopian seed system 97
4.5 Hybrid maize seed distribution, by type of supplier, 1993–2008 97
4.6 Basic seed demand and supply for maize hybrid multiplication,
2006–08 99
4.7 Raw seed production, Ethiopian Seed Enterprise, 2000–08 99
4.8 Hybrid maize seed–grain price ratios and real seed prices,
1991/92–2007/08 101
4.9 Fertilizer imports, 1996–2008 105
4.10 Fertilizer use intensity, 1996–2008 105
4.11 Fertilizer value–cost ratios, 1992, 1997, 2004, and 2008 107
4.12 Fertilizer import shares, by type of importer, 1996–2008 110
5.1 Trends in road development in Ethiopia, 1951–2007 131
5.2 Cellular phone ownership per 100 people in Ethiopia and its
neighbors, 2000–08 133
5.3 Cereal value chain map involving traditional market channels in
Ethiopia 135
6.1 Outfl ow of cattle, sheep, and goats, 2009 165
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viii Figures
7.1 Nonparametric regression estimates of per capita food
expenditure, 2004/05 193
7.2 Nonparametric Engel curve, 2004/05 193
7.3 Share of major cereals in total food expenditures in Ethiopia,
by income group and rural–urban place of residence, 2004/05 199
7.4 Distribution of rural population, by region and livelihood, 2008 206
7.5 Ethiopia’s rural agropastoral population, by region, 2008 206
7.6 Ethiopia’s rural pastoral population, by region, 2008 207
7.7 Share of major cereals in total food expenditures, 1994/95,
1999/2000, and 2004/05 211
7.8 Share of major cereals in total food expenditures across income
quintiles, 1994/95, 1999/2000, and 2004/05 211
7.9 Ethiopia Regional Hunger Index, 2005 214
8.1 Zones in the Dynamic Regional Economywide Model of Ethiopia
(DREME), with city sizes, road types, and agroecological zones
indicated, 2009 222
8.2 National poverty headcount results from the model scenarios,
2005–15 230
8.3 Current, expected, and targeted crop yields, 2005 and 2015 232
8.4 Changes in real market prices from the baseline under the
“all agriculture” scenario, 2005–15 239
10.1 Incidence of PSNP, public works, and direct support transfers,
by region and per capita or total consumption decile, 2007 306
Tables
1.1 Summary of major historical events in Ethiopia, 1890–2010 3
1.2 Ethiopia: Selected economic variables, 1981–2009 10
1.3 Ethiopia: Selected economic and social indicators, 1981–2009 11
1.4 East African countries: Selected indicators, 2009 13
2.1 Traditional ecological zones and altitudinal ranges of selected
crops 24
2.2 Domain summary statistics: Share of national totals by domain
factor, 1994 and 2007 (percent) 31
2.3 Domain summary statistics: Domain share of national totals, 1994
and 2007 (percent) 32
2.4 Percentage of regions’ populations connected to a city of at least 50,000
people, by access time, 2007 36
2.5 Percentage change in regions’ connection to a city of at least 50,000
people, by access time, 1994–2007 36
2.6 Electricity-generating capacity, 1958–2011 (annual averages) 38
2.7 Fixed-line and cellular telephones in Ethiopia compared to all of Africa,
2003, 2008, 2009, and 2010 39
2.8 Agglomeration index: Percentage of people considered urban by region,
1984, 1994, and 2007 40
2.9 Alternative urbanization estimates, 1984, 1994, and 2007 41
3.1 Crop area and production (smallholder farms, meher season),
2004/05–2007/08 55
3.2 Total area cultivated, by farm size and agroecology, 2007/08 56
3.3 Crop area, by season and size of farm, 2007/08 58
3.4 Crop production, by season and size of farm, 2007/08 59
3.5 Crop yields, by season and size of farm, 2007/08 60
3.6 Cereal area, yield, and production, decade averages and growth
rates, 1961/62–2008/09 63
3.7 Average cereal production, area covered, and yield, by crop,
2004/05–2007/08 (1997–2000 E.C.) 66
3.8 Cereal area cultivated, decade averages, 1961/62–2008/09 67
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