Flood Risk Change: A Complexity Perspective PDF
Preview Flood Risk Change: A Complexity Perspective
Flood Risk Change This page intentionally left blank Flood Risk Change A Complexity Perspective Andreas Paul Zischg University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland Elsevier Radarweg29,POBox211,1000AEAmsterdam,Netherlands TheBoulevard,LangfordLane,Kidlington,OxfordOX51GB,UnitedKingdom 50HampshireStreet,5thFloor,Cambridge,MA02139,UnitedStates Copyright(cid:1)2023ElsevierInc.Allrightsreserved. Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans, electronicormechanical,includingphotocopying,recording,oranyinformationstorage andretrievalsystem,withoutpermissioninwritingfromthepublisher.Detailsonhowto seekpermission,furtherinformationaboutthePublisher’spermissionspoliciesandour arrangementswithorganizationssuchastheCopyrightClearanceCenterandtheCopyright LicensingAgency,canbefoundatourwebsite:www.elsevier.com/permissions. Thisbookandtheindividualcontributionscontainedinitareprotectedundercopyrightby thePublisher(otherthanasmaybenotedherein). Notices Knowledgeandbestpracticeinthisfieldareconstantlychanging.Asnewresearchand experiencebroadenourunderstanding,changesinresearchmethods,professional practices,ormedicaltreatmentmaybecomenecessary. Practitionersandresearchersmustalwaysrelyontheirownexperienceandknowledgein evaluatingandusinganyinformation,methods,compounds,orexperimentsdescribed herein.Inusingsuchinformationormethodstheyshouldbemindfuloftheirownsafety andthesafetyofothers,includingpartiesforwhomtheyhaveaprofessionalresponsibility. Tothefullestextentofthelaw,neitherthePublishernortheauthors,contributors,or editors,assumeanyliabilityforanyinjuryand/ordamagetopersonsorpropertyasamatter ofproductsliability,negligenceorotherwise,orfromanyuseoroperationofanymethods, products,instructions,orideascontainedinthematerialherein. ISBN:978-0-12-822011-5 ForinformationonallElsevierpublicationsvisitourwebsite athttps://www.elsevier.com/books-and-journals Publisher:CandiceG.Janco AcquisitionsEditor:AmyM.Shapiro EditorialProjectManager:JoshuaMearns ProductionProjectManager:KumarAnbazhagan CoverDesigner:GregHarris TypesetbyTNQTechnologies To my family, Heike, Jule, and Linus This page intentionally left blank Contents Preface xi 1. Introduction 1 References 7 2. Key drivers of flood risk change 9 Principlesoffloodriskanalysis 11 Environmental changes 17 Environmental changesintheupstreamcatchment 17 Dams,reservoirs,andregulatedlakes 17 Landusechangesatcatchmentscale 19 Changes intheglacialandperiglacialenvironment 20 Naturalclimatevariability 20 Environmental changesinthefloodplain 21 Changes inrivermorphologyatreachscale 21 Climate changes 24 Socioeconomic changes 25 Coevolution ofkeydriversofchange 26 References 30 3. Disentangling drivers of change 37 Analysisandmodelingframework 38 Simulationsdrivenbyglobalandregionalclimatemodels 41 Sensitivityanalysisandscenario-neutralapproaches 43 Thestorylineapproach 44 Theretromodelexperimentapproach 46 Quantifyingtheisolated effectsofdriversofchange withmodelexperiments 47 TheKanderriverdeviationof1714AD anditseffectson hydrologicalchange 47 Analyzingthecumulative effectsofrivertrainingmeasures onfloodimpacts 75 Assessing changestofloodhazardmapsduetoclimaticchanges 104 Changes insedimentsupplyfortorrential floods 108 vii viii Contents Analyzingspatiotemporaldynamicsoffluvialerosionand riverbedaggradation 112 Analyzingchangesinfloodexposure 119 Analyzingtheeffectsoflanduseplanningonfloodexposure 125 Modelingtheeffectsofchangingvulnerabilityonfloodriskchange 128 Analyzingtheeffectsoffeedbackandtimelagsonflood riskchange 134 Feedbackeffectsoffluvialerosionandriverbedaggradationon floodriskchange 134 Feedbackeffectsoflandscapeshapingfloodeventson hydrologicalchange 141 Feedbackeffectsoffloodeventsontheinitiationofflood protectionprojects 146 Thesocietalmemoryeffectonhouseconstructionactivitiesin flood-proneareas 148 Timelagsinthe implementationoffloodrisk management measures 151 Otheraspectsthatarecontributingtothecomplexityofflood riskmanagement 153 Acknowledgments 155 References 155 4. Rivers and floodplains as complex adaptive systems? 167 Characteristicsofcomplexsystems 167 Numerosityanddiversity 168 Orderanddisorder 169 Nestedstructure,modularity,andmultiplescales 169 Feedback 170 Nonlinearity 171 Nonequilibrium,fluctuations,episodicalchanges 172 Emergence,self-organization,self-regulation 172 Historyandmemory,pathdependency 173 Robustness 173 Adaptive behavior 174 Uncertainty 175 Long-term evolutionoffloodplainsseen fromacomplexsystems perspective 175 Complexityoffloodriskchange 177 Trajectoriesandpathwaysoffloodriskevolution 178 Sensitivitytoclimaticchangesdshort-termfuture pathways 179 References 184 5. Modeling spatiotemporal dynamics of flood risk change 187 Examplesoffloodriskchangeanalysis 188 Thetool“Floodmemory” 189 Contents ix Thetool“Flooddamagepotential” 190 Thetool“Flooddamagesimulator” 198 Thetool“Floodriskdynamics”dfloodrisk changeatcentennial scale 214 Thetool“Flooddynamics”dfloodimpactvariabilityathourly scales 225 Decision-makingleadstotheemergenceofspatialpatternsof floodriskchange 242 Monitoringfloodrisk change 247 Modeling frameworkforconsideringcomplexityinthe analysisoffloodriskchange 247 Developmentofcoupledcomponentmodels 251 Modelcoupler 251 Developmentofmodelcomponents 255 Datasources 258 Perspectives ofcoupledcomponent modelsinhydrology 263 Context forhydrology 263 Hydrologyasa context 263 Feedbacks:unifyingtop-downandbottom-upmodelingapproaches 264 Acknowledgments 264 References 264 6. Confronting complexity in flood risk management 273 A newperspectiveonfloodrisks 273 LessonslearntfromtheKanderriverdeviation 279 Leversforcontrolling floodriskinthelongterm 283 Implicationsforfloodriskresearchandmanagement 286 References 292 Index 297
The list of books you might like
