Finding Alphas FINDING ALPHAS A Quantitative Approach to Building Trading Strategies Igor Tulchinsky et al. WorldQuant Virtual Research Center This edition fi rst published 2015 © 2015 Igor Tulchinsky et al., WorldQuant Virtual Research Center Registered offi ce John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, United Kingdom For details of our global editorial offi ces, for customer services and for information about how to apply for permission to reuse the copyright material in this book please visit our website at www.wiley.com. The right of the author to be identifi ed as the author of this work has been asserted in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, except as permitted by the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, without the prior permission of the publisher. Wiley publishes in a variety of print and electronic formats and by print-on-demand. Some material included with standard print versions of this book may not be included in e-books or in print-on-demand. If this book refers to media such as a CD or DVD that is not included in the version you purchased, you may download this material at http://booksupport.wiley.com. For more information about Wiley products, visit www.wiley.com. Designations used by companies to distinguish their products are often claimed as trademarks. All brand names and product names used in this book are trade names, service marks, trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners. The publisher is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book. Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifi cally disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fi tness for a particular purpose. It is sold on the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services and neither the publisher nor the author shall be liable for damages arising herefrom. If professional advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 978-1-119-05786-4 (hbk) ISBN 978-1-119-05788-8 (ebk) ISBN 978-1-119-05789-5 (ebk) ISBN 978-1-119-05787-1 (ebk) Cover Design: Wiley Cover Image: © agsandrew/Shutterstock Set in 11/13 Times LT Std by Aptara, New Delhi, India Printed in Great Britain by TJ International Ltd, Padstow, Cornwall, UK Dedicated to All at WorldQuant — The Future of Trading Contents Preface xi Acknowledgments xiii About the WebSim™ Website xv PART I INTRODUCTION 1 1 Introduction to Alpha Design 3 By Igor Tulchinsky 2 Alpha Genesis – The Life-Cycle of a Quantitative Model of Financial Price Prediction 7 By Geoffrey Lauprete 3 Cutting Losses 13 By Igor Tulchinsky PART II DESIGN AND EVALUATION 19 4 Alpha Design 21 By Scott Bender/Yongfeng He 5 How to Develop an Alpha. I: Logic with an Example 27 By Pankaj Bakliwal 6 How to Develop an Alpha. II: A Case Study 31 By Hongzhi Chen 7 Fundamental Analysis 43 By Xinye Tang/Kailin Qi 8 Equity Price and Volume 49 By Cong Li 9 Turnover 51 By Pratik Patel viii Contents 10 Backtest – Signal or Overfi tting 55 By Peng Yan 11 Alpha and Risk Factors 61 By Peng Wan 12 The Relationship between Alpha and Portfolio Risk 65 By Ionut Aron 13 Risk and Drawdowns 71 By Hammad Khan 14 Data and Alpha Design 79 By Weijia Li 15 Statistical Arbitrage, Overfi tting, and Alpha Diversity 85 By Zhuangxi Fang 16 Techniques for Improving the Robustness of Alphas 89 By Michael Kozlov 17 Alphas from Automated Search 93 By Yu Huang 18 Algorithms and Special Techniques in Alpha Research 97 By Sunny Mahajan PART III EXTENDED TOPICS 101 19 Impact of News and Social Media on Stock Returns 103 By Wancheng Zhang 20 Stock Returns Information from the Stock Options Market 109 By Swastik Tiwari 21 Introduction to Momentum Alphas 117 By Zhiyu Ma 22 Financial Statement Analysis 119 By Paul A. Griffi n 23 Institutional Research 101 127 By Benjamin Ee 24 Introduction to Futures Trading 145 By Rohit Agarwal 25 Alpha on Currency Forwards and Futures 151 By Richard Williams
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