Financial and biological model for intensive culture of tilapia

62 Pages·2006·1.03 MB·English

PO Box 1390, Skulagata 4
120 Reykjavik, Iceland Final Project 2004

FINANCIAL AND BIOLOGICAL MODEL FOR INTENSIVE CULTURE
OF TILAPIA

Alen de Llano Massino
INDIPES. Ave Pesquera y Hacendados
Habana Vieja. Ciudad Habana
Cuba
[email protected]

Supervisor
Eyjólfur Guðmundsson, PhD
Akureyri University
eyjó[email protected]

ABSTRACT

In the last few years tilapia has captured the attention of consumers for its nutritional qualities.
At the same time it has become a substitute for species like cod and haddock when stocks are
declining around the world, opening good opportunities for its commercialisation. Frozen
whole tilapia products have characterized Cuban exports so far but the prices obtained in the
international market do not cover the cost for intensive culture farming of tilapia. This study
evaluates the likelihood of the production of large sized intensive cultured tilapia in order to
produce frozen fillets for the European market. A stochastic model based on biological and
financial data from intensive tilapia farming is developed assigning probabilities to several key
parameters related to farming and processing. Further analysis to obtain more than 65% chance
of positives values of Net Present Values over a period of ten years is conducted on Monte
Carlo simulation. The influence of parameters selected as assumptions in the project is
evaluated. It was found that the project will be unprofitable unless significant improvements
are made in farming and processing areas in Cuba.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................5
1.1 European market overview.................................................................................5
1.2 European market suppliers..................................................................................6
1.3 Cuba: Current situation.......................................................................................8
1.4 Objective...........................................................................................................10
2 LITERATURE REVIEW.........................................................................................10
3 METHODOLOGY...................................................................................................12
3.1 Capital investment............................................................................................13
3.2 Cash flows.........................................................................................................14
3.3 Capital budgeting..............................................................................................16
3.4 Risk...................................................................................................................16
3.5 Models...............................................................................................................19
4 MODEL....................................................................................................................24
4.1 Data...................................................................................................................24
4.1.1 Farming parameters..................................................................................24
4.1.2 Processing parameters...............................................................................25
4.2 Growth equation................................................................................................26
4.3 Biomass.............................................................................................................32
4.4 Tilapia farming..................................................................................................34
4.5 Tilapia processing.............................................................................................41
5 SIMULATION RESULTS.......................................................................................47
5.1 Operation, cash flows and investment analysis................................................47
5.2 NPV forecasting chart.......................................................................................52
5.3 Financial ratios..................................................................................................54
5.4 Sensitivity chart................................................................................................55
6 CONCLUSIONS.......................................................................................................59
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS..............................................................................................60
LIST OF REFERENCES..................................................................................................61

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Taiwan whole tilapia exports to the EU by country of origin, 2002 (FAO 2004).
.............................................................................................................................................6
Figure 2: Taiwan tilapia fillet exports to the EU by country of destination, 2002 (FAO 2004).
.............................................................................................................................................7
Figure 3: Price of tilapia fillets from Zimbabwe in 2001-2004 (FAO 2004)....................7
Figure 4: A company’s cash flows diagram (Gitman 2003)............................................15
Figure 5: Normal distribution curve................................................................................18
Figure 6: The mean and the standard deviation in a normal distribution curve..............18
Figure 7: Probability of an interval [a, b] in a normal distribution curve........................19
Figure 8: Project design chart..........................................................................................20
Figure 9: Model parameters relationship.........................................................................22
Figure 10: Model NPV forecast.......................................................................................23
Figure 11: Tilapia real and theoretical growth curves.....................................................28
Figure 12: Values of weight obtained using Chapman-Richard’s equation and values
calculated by the Aquaculture Directorate........................................................................29
Figure 13: Comparison of calculated and real growth curves.........................................30
Figure 14: Triangular distribution for growth equation parameter C..............................31
Figure 15: Forecasting chart for growth equation within 240 days of farming...............32
Figure 16: Lognormal distribution curve assigned to parameter CSV in the biomass equation.
...........................................................................................................................................33
Figure 17: Forecasting chart for biomass within 240 days of farming............................33
Figure 18: Extreme value distribution for the feed conversion ratio...............................35
Figure 19: Triangular distribution for fingerlings price..................................................35
Figure 20: Extreme value distribution for feed price.......................................................36
Figure 21: Triangular distribution for Super Phosphate price.........................................36
Figure 22: Triangular distribution for Urea price............................................................37
Figure 23: Triangular distribution for Cal price..............................................................37
Figure 24: Normal distribution for electricity cost (farm)...............................................38
Figure 25: Normal distribution for fuel cost (farm).........................................................38
Figure 26: Triangular distribution for fishing gear cost...................................................39
Figure 27: Triangular distribution for paddlewheel aerator prices..................................39
Figure 28: Triangular distribution for flake ice plant prices............................................40
Figure 29: Triangular distribution for monitoring system prices.....................................40
Figure 30: Normal distribution for filleting yield............................................................42
Figure 31: Triangular distribution for plastic bag prices.................................................42
Figure 32: Triangular distribution for carton box prices.................................................43
Figure 33: Normal distribution for electricity cost..........................................................43
Figure 34: Normal distribution for water costs................................................................43
Figure 35: Triangular distribution for auxiliary materials cost........................................44
Figure 36: Triangular distribution for maintenance cost.................................................45
Figure 37: Triangular distribution for transport cost......................................................45
Figure 38: Extreme value distribution for sales price......................................................46
Figure 39: Uniform distribution for fixed costs...............................................................46
Figure 40: Fillet production in even years.......................................................................47
Figure 41: Fillet production in odd years.........................................................................48
Figure 42: Variable cost distribution...............................................................................48
Figure 43: Fixed cost distribution....................................................................................49
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Figure 44: Total sales prices distribution.........................................................................49
Figure 45: Production and sales prices values per year...................................................49
Figure 46: Project operations in ten years........................................................................50
Figure 47: Project cash flows in ten years.......................................................................51
Figure 48: Investment, depreciation and financing in 10 years.......................................51
Figure 49: Forecast and certainty of obtaining positives values of NPV after 10 years..52
Figure 50: Forecast and certainty of obtaining IRR values from 0%-200% after 10 years.52
Figure 51: Operating profit margin ratio.........................................................................54
Figure 52: Net profit margin ratio....................................................................................55
Figure 53: Net profit current ratio....................................................................................55
Figure 54: Results from sensitivity analysis of assumptions over NPV values...............56
Figure 55: Distribution for improved growth coefficient, filleting yield and feed conversion.
...........................................................................................................................................57
Figure 56: NPV forecast for improved growth coefficient, filleting yield and feed conversion.
...........................................................................................................................................57

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Estimated import of tilapia into the EU in tons (Josupeit 2004).........................5
Table 2: EU tilapia market summary.................................................................................8
Table 3: Tilapia intensive aquaculture parameters in selected farms in Cuba (INDIPES 2003).
.............................................................................................................................................9
Table 4: Intensive farming parameters............................................................................24
Table 5: Fertilizer calculations: Urea...............................................................................24
Table 6: Fertilizer calculations: Super Phosphate............................................................25
Table 7: Itemized tilapia processing costs (INDIPES 2004)...........................................26
Table 8: Results from Monte Carlo simulation................................................................53

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1 INTRODUCTION

Once considered a low value fish, tilapia has now caught consumers’ attention around the
world. Historically tilapia was produced and consumed mainly in Africa and Asia. Lately it has
also received international acceptance in non-traditional markets becoming a substitute for
many white-fish species consumed in Europe. The price is competitive and the production of
tilapia is increasing around the world. The following chapters describe the main characteristics
of the European market and the most important suppliers of tilapia products. An overview of
aquaculture in Cuba is also given.

1.1 European market overview

The UK is a major European market for tilapia. Tilapia is also marketed in France, Belgium,
Germany and the Netherlands and in smaller quantities in Austria, Italy, Switzerland, Denmark
and Sweden (Helga Josupeit, GLOBEFISH 2004). The northern part of Europe prefers fillets,
while the South generally chooses whole fish. Import tariffs for tilapia into the EU are 8% for
whole fish (fresh and frozen) and 9% for fillets. The main markets are the big European cities
where large communities of African, Chinese and Asian people live. Recently, consumption of
tilapia has also increased in non-ethnic markets (Helga Josupeit, GLOBEFISH 2004).

Nearly all tilapia marketed in Europe comes from imports. European aquaculture production of
tilapia reached a peak of 320 tons in 1996, decreasing to 200 tons at present (Helga Josupeit,
GLOBEFISH 2004). The major import volume is whole frozen fish but there has been an
increase in fresh and frozen fillets in the past years. The total volume of tilapia imports to
Europe has increased by 5,985 tons from 1996 to 2002. Taiwan is the most important exporter
with a 94% of the total. From Latin America the major exporters to Europe are Brazil, with
export volumes around half of China in 2002, and Ecuador (Table 1).

Table 1: Estimated import of tilapia into the EU in tons (Helga Josupeit, GLOBEFISH 2004).
Country 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
China 85.9 45.4 74.1 132.0 572.8 1,863.1 197,6
Taiwan 1,476.2 1,856..2 2,833.3 4,042.0 5,087.3 5,543.5 7,382.5
Jamaica 1.5
Brazil 21.0 10.1 10.5 8.5 0.3 107.2
Ecuador 14.1 37.1 38.6 48.0 55.1 27.7
Others 222.9 128.0 84.3 193.8 180.1 240.7 91.4
Total 1,821.6 2,076.8 3,040.8 4,376.3 5,888.5 7,702.4 7806.4

Tilapia is competing with cod and haddock but cod supplies in recent years have decreased and
prices have increased, so tilapia appears to be in a good position to capture the European
market from these species. European consumers and wholesalers have low awareness for
tilapia and tilapia products so it is necessary to increase promotion in order to expand the
market share (Helga Josupeit, GLOBEFISH 2004). In general, the European market seems to
prefer larger sized tilapia compared to the US market (Helga Josupeit, GLOBEFISH 2004). It
is possible to farm high quality larger sized tilapia in order to meet European consumers’
expectations.
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1.2 European market suppliers

Europe has increased its imports from Taiwan over the last years. Since 1996, imports from
Taiwan grew from 1,476 tons to 7,382 tons, being mostly frozen tilapia. Fillet imports from
Taiwan increased from 300 kg in 1997 to 228 tons in 1999. In 2002, some 7,806 tons of tilapia
products were exported to the EU (Helga Josupeit, GLOBEFISH 2004).

The major importers of frozen whole tilapia in Europe are the UK (34%), France (22%) and the
Netherlands (17%). The market for frozen fillets is smaller, only 600 tons were exported in
2002, mainly to Germany (39%) and the Netherlands (36%) (Figure 1 and Figure 2).

Others; 2%
Italy; 4%
Portugal; 7%
UK; 34%
Belgium;
14%
Netherland;
17%
France; 22%

Figure 1: Taiwan whole tilapia exports to the EU by country of origin, 2002 (Helga Josupeit,
GLOBEFISH 2004)

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Other
UK 3%
11%
Belgium Germany
11% 39%
Netherland
36%

Figure 2: Taiwan tilapia fillet exports to the EU by country of destination, 2002 (Helga
Josupeit, GLOBEFISH 2004)
Apart from Taiwan, few other countries are exporting tilapia products to the EU. Some fresh
fillets arrive from Zimbabwe (284 tons in 2002) and Jamaica (90 tons). The fresh fillets from
Zimbabwe mainly go to the UK market. Prices of fresh tilapia fillets in the European market
were quite stable in 2002 and 2003 at Euro 7.0 /kg, only recently the price has gone down to
Euro 6.9/kg in January 2004 (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Price of tilapia fillets from Zimbabwe in 2001-2004 (Helga Josupeit, GLOBEFISH
2004).

Frozen tilapia fillet imports into the EU declined in 2002, as both Ecuador and Zimbabwe
decreased exports of this product. Taiwan captured the slot in the market, accounting for
almost 90% of EU imports in 2002 (Helga Josupeit, GLOBEFISH 2004).
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Main suppliers of tilapia fillets for the EU market are the countries from Asia since imports
from Latin America and Africa have declined in the last years (Table 2). The volume of fillet
imports is still small but is increasing and the market prices are favourable and stable (Helga
Josupeit, GLOBEFISH 2004).

Table 2: EU tilapia market summary.
1. United Kingdom (34% whole, 11% fillets )
2. France (22 % whole)
Main markets
3. Belgium (14 % whole, 11% fillets)
(% imports shares)
4. Netherlands (16 % whole, 36 % fillets)
5. Germany (39 % fillets)
1. Taiwan (97 % frozen products)
2. Indonesia
Main suppliers
3. Thailand
(% export shares)
4. Zimbabwe (74 % fresh fillets)
5. Malaysia
1. Whole frozen (6000 tons/2002)
Main products 2. Fresh fillets (600 tons/2002)
3. Frozen fillets (284 tons/2002)
Whole: 500-800g
800-UP g

Preferred size
Fillets: <80g
80-140 g
>140 g

The major markets for whole frozen tilapia are the UK and France, sharing a total of 56% of
the imports for this product. The Netherlands and Germany are the biggest markets for tilapia
fillets sharing 75% of imports. However, the Netherlands also have an important share in the
whole tilapia market imports with 16% of the total. Taiwan is the biggest supplier for frozen
tilapia products to Europe and Zimbabwe is the major supplier of fresh fillets to Europe. For
countries trying to export frozen fillets (like Cuba), Taiwan is profiled as the most important
competitor for such products. The market for frozen fillets is still small but the trend is that it
will increase and become a substitute for other species.

1.3 Cuba: Current situation

With the objective to increase food availability, the government decided to use new dams (140
000 ha) built for agricultural purposes to farm fresh water species. Tilapia and Chinese carp
were introduced in Cuba in 1964. Other species like catfish, prawns and fresh water lobster
have also been farmed in intensive culture systems (Ministry of Fisheries Industry 2004).

In the second half of the 1990s an investment program was developed in order to build farms
for intensive and semi-intensive culture of fish and crustaceans (currently there are more than
40 farms). Raceway systems are also used for intensive culture of tilapia. For several years the
tilapia culture was abandoned in Cuba, due to financial constraints that prohibited purchases of
fish meal, which is very important for intensive and semi-intensive culture of tilapia. In 1998
some new experiments were carried out in collaboration with Chinese specialists from the
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Aquaculture Preparation Centre in Mamposton and in the province of Granma, achieving
tilapia yields of 12 tons/ha. In addition, Cuban specialists received technical training in
intensive culture of tilapia.

Since 2002 several business projects have been developed for intensive tilapia culture with
financing from domestic banks or international investors. In 2002 the National Bank of Cuba
offered loans to enterprises for development in aquaculture (Proyecto de Tilapia 2003).

Commercialisation of intensive culture of tilapia in Cuba has been based mainly on whole
tilapia with a harvest size around 260 -300 g (Table 3). The highest sales prices obtained are
about 1.35 USD/kg, which is not high enough for farmers to cover production costs.

In Cuba, the stocking density varies from 2 to10 fish/m2 with a yield from 3 to 15 tons/ha per
cycle (Table 3). The feed conversion ratio is 2.3-2.7 in most farms except in Javilla (5.1).
Tilapia sold as frozen whole fish products is smaller than tilapia used for fillets.

The average harvest size is between 216-377 g, which is insufficient to produce tilapia fillets
and the market prices for whole frozen tilapia in this size range are not high enough to cover
the farming costs.

Table 3: Tilapia intensive aquaculture parameters in selected farms in Cuba (INDIPES 2003).
Initial Final
Density Yield Survival Conv. Farming
Farm weight weight
(Fish/m2) (MT/ha) (% ) Factor days
(g) (g)
Paila 5 70 8 216 79 2.3 141
Ciego de Avila 4 9 5 265 83 2.3 190
Granma. Acuipaso 3 104 5 377 57 2.3 117
Stgo de Cuba. America 10 6 15 215 47 2.5 268
Stgo de Cuba.Parada 9 30 11 237 43 2.7 237
Guantanamo.Javilla 2 5 3 326 27 5.1 231

Currently the most attractive market for Cuban tilapia is the European market. The US market
(the natural market for Cuba) is not available for Cuban export products due to a commercial
blockade between the two countries.

For the past two years the attractive prices for tilapia fillets have been around 7 Euros/kg in
Europe. Costs for intensive tilapia farming in Cuba and also the low price obtained for the
products on the international market make it more attractive to produce fillets using large sized
tilapia than to produce whole frozen fish from smaller sizes.

The average yield for tilapia fillets is 0.33 which means you need 3.3 kg of whole fish to obtain
1 kg of fillets and the minimum fillets size portions for the EU is 80 g. From this, the minimum
weight for whole fish required to produce marketable fillets 500 g.

For Cuban tilapia producers the question must be:

Is it profitable to produce fillets for the European Market?

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To answer this question a biological and financial model must be developed.

1.4 Objective

Based on the previous sections the objective for this research will be to:

• Evaluate the profitability of intensive culture for large sized tilapia (>500g) in Cuba to
be exported to the European fillet market.

Within this objective there are two specific goals:

1. Design a financial and biological model for intensive culture of tilapia in Cuba.

2. Demonstrate the profitability of large tilapia (>500g) production and estimate the
likelihood of achieving profit for varying farm scenarios.

In order to achieve this, a biological and financial stochastic model will be designed in which
probabilities distributions are assigned to different parameters in order to introduce uncertainty
inside the model and run simulations to find the likelihood of obtaining positive Net Present
Values (NPV).

2 LITERATURE REVIEW

Little has been published on the use of risk analysis and simulations software in intensive
tilapia culture. Very often investment projects and new processing introductions in Cuba are
carried out without taking into consideration important questions about the implicit risk
associated with the business. The decision maker generally does not have the tools and
information needed to appreciate and evaluate the uncertainty of the factors involved.
Important decisions taken without analysing the possibilities of success or failure can
sometimes lead to serious mistakes and great losses in both financial and production terms.

Risk analysis tools software was used by Zucker and Anderson (1999) in a stochastic model of
a land-based summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) aquaculture firm. In this case, a
dynamic stochastic model was developed to compare alternative production and marketing
scenarios using the net present value of returns. Based on the model they found that firms are
unlikely to make profits unless they are located near a salt-water source used to produce
summer flounder for sushi restaurants who desire medium-sized live fish.

A work on risk analysis related with aquaculture was developed for farmed shrimp in
Honduras (Valderrama 2001). The objective of the study was to analyse the profitability of
shrimp farming under various risk conditions. Data was collected on the technical aspects of
shrimp culture such as stocking densities, feeding rates, etc as well as on the financial
performance of the farms including production costs and farm revenues over a certain time
period. Those scenarios were found to identify possible differences in farm management
strategies. The simulations for the study were run using Monte Carlo simulation techniques.
Five hundred iterations were used to generate values for individual cost and quantity
parameters based on probability distributions. The main result was that regardless of the farm
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