Final_Pakistan proposal 11-29-12

34 Pages·2012·1.54 MB·English

by  Ruth Sobel

2. Project Summary
Title of the Project: Establishment of an Advanced Seismic System at Islamabad (ASSI) and
Development of National Seismic Hazard Maps
Pakistan Side US Side
Principal Investigator: Dr. MonaLisa Principal Investigator: Dr. David W. Simpson
Associate Professor and Head Department of Meteorology President IRIS Consortium
Institution: COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Institution: Incorporated Institutions for Seismology,
(CIIT), Islamabad 1200 New York Ave, Suite 400, Washington D.C., USA

The objectives of this project are to initiate the development of a modern, open earthquake
recording network in Pakistan; develop detailed methodology for developing seismic hazard maps for
Pakistan and use this methodology to develop a set of first generation NSH maps for Pakistan. The work
will be performed in Pakistan with guidance provided by the U.S. team during visits of Pakistani
researchers and technical experts to the U.S. for training in modern techniques and network operation.
An Advanced Seismic System at Islamabad (ASSI), comprised of a combination of broadband and
strong motion instruments, will be installed as a collaborative effort between the COMSATS Institute of
Information Technology (CIIT) Islamabad and the IRIS consortium in the U.S. The purpose of the
network is acquire data for hazard assessment and collaborative research that will lead to better
understanding and quantification of seismicity in the region, particularly in Islamabad.
While understanding the seismicity and tectonic setting of the region is important in establishing
criteria for the earthquake resistant design of structures, the estimation of seismic shaking and the
appropriate loads on structures is also an essential component. Seismic loads required for the design of
structures are directly related to the expected level of ground shaking at the location of the structure
under consideration. Therefore, quantification of earthquake shaking is essential for improved
engineering design.
The intent of the proposed work is to use the best available information and best judgment of
Pakistani scientists and engineers coupled with the experience of their U.S. counterparts to develop and
document a detailed methodology for the development of seismic hazard maps for Pakistan, and to use
this methodology in a demonstration project that prepares a set of first generation seismicity maps. In
1996 the United States Geological Survey (USGS) embarked on a project to develop a detailed set of
ground motion maps for the entire U.S. These maps now inform all major earthquake design codes in
the U.S. One objective of the proposed project is to draw from the U.S. experience and adopt a similar
system for Pakistan. A key objective of this work is to document the methodology and approach in a
clear and transparent manner so that, as new more refined data are obtained, future generation maps can
be updated through indigenous effort by Pakistani researchers and scientists. The project will be
organized and conducted in a manner that identifies specific areas of further study that will serve as
research topics for graduate students in Universities across Pakistan and provide training for a next
generation of earthquake engineers, geologists and seismologists.
3. Project Description
3.a Background and Rationale
On October 8, 2005 a magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck Pakistan resulting in unprecedented loss of
life and property in Pakistan’s 60-year history. It is estimated that more than 80,000 lives were lost in
this disaster with the World Bank and Asian Development Bank assessment of the cost of relief,
recovery, and reconstruction at approximately US$5.2 billion. This catastrophe was accentuated by the
lack of understanding of seismic risk in the region and inadequate seismic design of built structures.
The geological framework of the northwest Himalaya makes Northern Pakistan susceptible to
frequent moderate to major earthquakes. Pakistan is situated along the northern and western boundaries
of the Indian tectonic plate, which moves northwards at the rate of approximately 4 cm/year, colliding
with the Eurasian tectonic plate. The northward movement of the Indian plate has created the mountain
ranges in the north and western regions of Pakistan. These regions are susceptible to moderate to major
earthquakes, as evidenced by the 1974 Pattan earthquake (m 6.0); the 1977 Rawalpindi earthquake (m
b b
5.2); the two 2002 Bunji earthquakes (m 5.3 and 6.0); and 2004 Battagram earthquakes (m 5.3 and
b b
5.5). Following the October 8, 2005 earthquake, Bilham et al., 2005 and MonaLisa et al., 2008, 2009
documented that the earthquake did not release all of the strain energy accumulated since the last great
earthquake in 1855, making another large earthquake in that region very likely.
Mitigation of seismic disasters requires adaptation of building practices to actual local seismic
hazard. While Pakistani scientists and engineers have made significant progress in earthquake
engineering research over the past few years, the monitoring and research infrastructure necessary for
full characterization of the hazard remains to be developed in the region. The lack of adequate
resources is illustrated by the contrast between seismic instrumentation in California (over two
thousand seismic stations) and in Pakistan (less than 100).
Presently, seismicity in Pakistan is predominantly reported by international networks, and to a
limited extent by local networks of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC), Mangla and
Tarbela seismological observatories of Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), and the
Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). However, broader coverage, improved instrumentation
coordinated data collection, and open data distribution to the engineering and research communities are
necessary to support adequate monitoring and scientific projects.
Soon after the 2005 earthquake the Government of Pakistan established the National Disaster
Management Authority (NDMA) and Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA)
that was responsible for immediate relief and rehabilitation efforts. In addition to the work by ERRA
and NDMA, the ministry of Housing and Works revised and updated the seismic building code of
Pakistan (SBC-07) in March 2007. Although some seismic hazard studies have been performed for
Pakistan, a comprehensive approach for the development and long-term maintenance and update of
seismic hazard maps does not exist. The National Seismic Hazard (NSH) maps that we propose to
initiate will incorporate modern analytical approaches and will establish a process for detailed and
systematic quantification of seismic hazard, essential for seismic design and reduction of seismic risk.
In 2007 the Pakistan-US Cooperative Program in Earthquake-Related Research supported a three-
year project entitled “Development of Framework for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Pakistan”
developed by the NWFP University of Engineering and Technology (UET), Peshawar and the
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. While this study provided valuable information on seismic
hazard in Northwestern Pakistan, the results are inconsistent with previously published analyses and
suffered from a lack of modern instrumental data. The proposed project, with coordinated data
collection and a systematic approach to analysis, will provide the Pakistani seismological community
with the opportunity to expand these observations and resolve any discrepancies in currently available
hazard assessments.
3.b Problem Statement
The purpose of the proposed project is to initiate the development of an Advanced Seismic System
at Islamabad (ASSI), to develop a detailed framework for the quantification of seismic shaking and
hazard assessment for Pakistan, and to demonstrate the application of the methodology by preparing a
set of first generation national seismic hazard (NSH) maps for Pakistan.
Pakistan lacks an extensive seismographic network, which is essential for understanding local
seismicity, identifying and characterizing seismic sources and quantifying seismic hazard in terms of
expected levels of ground shaking. Islamabad, in addition to being the federal capital, together with the
adjacent Rawalpindi metropolitan area is home to over 4.5 million people. It is located close to the
seismically active Main Boundary Thrust (MBT). The proposed ASSI, that will include a combination
of regional broadband and urban strong motion instruments, will provide the essential data required to
quantify local seismogenic sources and to constrain attenuation/amplification characteristics of ground
motion, and will help with the quantification of seismic hazard.
In addition, this project will serve to identify research topics that will provide a research
framework specific for Pakistan, and for the development of local expertise.

3.c Prior Experience / Capability
The project will be performed by Pakistani and U.S. collaborators with complementary expertise
and capabilities.
Participants on the Pakistan side are: CIIT Pakistan, National Disaster Management Authority
(NDMA), and WAPDA. The Principal Investigator on the Pakistani side is Dr. MonaLisa. She will
direct students and staff at CIIT and be responsible for the execution of work including the direction of
Ph.D., MPhil and Masters students involved in the project. The project team on the Pakistani side also
includes experts in the field of earthquake and electrical engineering, seismologists, and government
officials: Dr.M. Khalid Khan (QAU), Mr. Kazim Mehdi (WAPDA) and Dr. Zafar (NDMA). Dr. M.
Khalid Khan is a physicist in QAU who has worked on probabilistic approaches and Monte-Carlo
simulation. He will contribute to the preparation of National Seismic Hazard Maps and provide
guidance to students. Dr. Zafar, Director of NDMA will provide the facilities for the installation of the
seismic network in Islamabad, and will help coordinate academic researchers and government
policymakers. Mr. Kazim Mehdi is the director of Microseismic Monitoring Network in WAPDA, and
he and Mr, Ahsan Kamal Ahmad have extensive experience in installation and operation of observatory
instrumentation. Their support will be valuable in the development of ASSI. Additional input will be
invited from other scientists and engineers practicing in earthquake engineering and seismology in
Pakistan, including Dr. Asif of the University of Peshawar and Dr. Ashfaq Ahmed of the Centre of
Earthquake Studies.
Project participating institutions on the U.S. side are the IRIS Consortium, the U.S. Geological
Survey National Earthquake Information Center and Geological Hazards Group, the University of
Arkansas at Little Rock, and additional IRIS member institutions.
The Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) is a 501-c (3) not-for-profit
corporation established in 1984 to serve the needs of a consortium of universities that have research
programs in seismology. IRIS-operated technical facilities serve the dual purpose of facilitating
fundamental research and supporting the mission of agencies involved in global and regional
earthquake monitoring, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). IRIS consists three primary
service directorates, Data Services, Instrumentation Services, and Education and Public Outreach,
managed and implemented by full-time professional Program Managers. IRIS management is
supported by a staff of more than 50 employees, with 100 additional personnel engaged in IRIS
activities through major subawards. IRIS business services and senior program managers are located at
corporate headquarters in Washington DC. Additional IRIS offices are located in Seattle, WA (data
management center) and Socorro, NM (instrument facility). Support for IRIS activities has been
provided primarily through continuous Cooperative Agreements with the National Science Foundation
for more than 25 years, with current aggregate annual income of approximately $30M/year. IRIS has
extensive experience in installation and support of seismic stations worldwide, and in building
seismological capacity through numerous training programs globally.
IRIS President, Dr. David Simpson will be responsible for coordinating and directing the U.S.
team in order to provide the necessary input and guidance to their Pakistani counterparts. Additional
technical and organizational support will be provided by Dr. R. Woodward, IRIS Director of
Instrumentation Services, Dr. T. Ahern, Director of Data Services and Dr. O. Cabello, Director of
International Development Seismology.
On the U.S. side, the project team also includes Prof. Dr. Hayadar-Al-Shukri, Professor and Chair
of the Department of Applied Science, College of Science and Mathematics at the University of
Arkansas in Little Rock. Dr. Al-Shukri has a long-standing collaboration with Dr. MonaLisa, and
extensive experience working in the region. His well-established collaborations, cultural acumen and
scientific expertise will be fundamental to facilitating all technical aspects of project development, as
well as the training of Pakistani colleagues. Dr. Al-Shukri will support a Pakistani graduate student at
UALR to work specifically on this project alongside Pakistani students and other trainees. Other U.S.
team members include Dr. Harley Benz, Director of the USGS National Earthquake Information
Center, Dr. Mark Petersen, Project Chief, USGS Seismic Hazard Mapping Project. Dr. Benz and Dr.
Petersen direct USGS programs that have direct relevance to this proposal in terms of seismic network
operation, earthquake monitoring and earthquake hazard assessment. They will be assisted in
interactions and training of Pakistani visitors by other members of the NEIC and Geologic Hazards
teams in Golden Colorado.
It is anticipated that researchers with experience in Pakistan from IRIS Member universities
including Lehigh University, Columbia University and Michigan Technological University will also
participate in the project.
Brief bio-sketches of the PIs and key members of the team are included in a later section of this
proposal.
3.d Scope and Objectives
We propose the establishment of an Advance Seismic System at Islamabad (ASSI) operated and
maintained by COMSATS Institute of Information Technology (CIIT) Islamabad. The purpose of the
network is to better quantify and understand seismicity of the region, in particular the area
surrounding Islamabad. The proposed network will be comprised of a combination of broadband and
strong motion instruments. This combination will provide data for research and engineering design
purposes, helping to understand local site effects and attenuation of shaking with distance from
earthquake sources in the region. While understanding the seismicity and tectonic setting of the region
is important in establishing criteria for the earthquake resistant design of structures, the estimation of
seismic shaking and the appropriate loads on structures is also an essential component. Seismic loads
required for the design of structures are directly related to the expected level and frequency of ground
shaking at the location of the structure of interest. Therefore, quantification of earthquake shaking is
essential for engineering design and the development of hazard maps.
In 1996 the United States Geological Survey (USGS) embarked on a project to develop a detailed
set of ground motion maps for the entire U.S. These maps now form part of all major earthquake
design codes in the U.S. The objective of the proposed project is to draw from the U.S. experience
and adopt a similar system for Pakistan. The proposed work will develop and document a detailed
methodology for the development of seismic hazard maps for Pakistan and use this methodology to
prepare a set of first generation maps. The project will be organized and conducted in a manner that
identifies specific areas of further study that can serve as research topics for graduate students in
Universities across Pakistan, and provide training opportunities for a new generation of earthquake
engineers, geologists and seismologists.
Objectives:
The objectives of this project are:
1) Initiate the development of an Advance Seismic System at Islamabad (ASSI)
a) Use the ASSI to monitor seismicity in the MBT as it is the most significant seismogenic source
region close to Islamabad
b) Develop a plan for long term expansion of the network to cover the broader region
c) Increase the overall number and coverage of seismic instrumentation in Pakistan
d) Improve the accessibility of data to a broader engineering and scientific community in Pakistan
and, through the IRIS Data Management Center, make global data available to Pakistani
scientists and provide the data from ASSI to scientists worldwide.
2) Develop detailed methodology for developing national seismic hazard maps for Pakistan.
a) Use this methodology to develop a set of first generation NSH maps for Pakistan.
b) Develop a “research needs” summary document to provide research topics for graduate students
at Pakistani universities and open research opportunities for collaborative projects with U.S. and
other international scientists.
c) The NSH maps will include three key parameters:
i) peak ground acceleration (PGA)
ii) peak spectral acceleration
iii) spectral acceleration for one second period.
3.e Methods
Establishment of an Advance Seismic System at Islamabad (ASSI)
Following are the key elements of this activity:
1. Conceptual Framework for ASSI: We propose to use well-proven design concepts to install a
total of ten seismic stations (four broadband and six strong motion) in and around Islamabad. The
stations in Pakistan will be based on the same design that the IRIS Consortium has used to install
broadband seismic observatories at more than 1,000 sites across the United States over the past 10
years as part of a major scientific facility (EarthScope/USArray) funded by the U.S. National Science
Foundation. Each of these stations is completely self-contained and includes high-sensitivity, 3-
component broadband seismographs, 3-component accelerometers, atmospheric pressure and other
meteorological sensors, digital data-loggers, power and real-time telemetry systems. This state-of-the-
art station design has also been used to establish, in cooperation with the University of Chile, ten
Global Reporting Observatories (GRO-Chile) that form the backbone of a new national seismic
network for Chile. In both the U.S. and Chile, these stations form an important data source for national
seismic monitoring and research. Through free and open data exchange via the IRIS Data Management
Center (DMC), in collaboration with the Global Seismographic Network and the international
Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks (FDSN), these stations also contribute important data for
global earthquake monitoring. We
propose to use the same design
concepts and strategies to install four
broadband stations as the backbone
of the ASSI in Pakistan. In addition
to the broadband stations, six
independent strong motion stations
will be installed in the urban
environment of Islamabad to provide
key data for ground motion studies
important for engineering design.
All ASSI data will be collected
in real-time at a data center, to be
established at CIIT in Islamabad,
which will be responsible for local
and regional earthquake monitoring Figure 1 Map of the seismicity, faults and possible AASI station
and catalog development. All data locations (black squares) in the region around Islamabad. Aftershocks of
will also be sent in real time to the the October 2005 earthquake are shown in red.
IRIS DMC where it will be made available to the USGS National Earthquake Information Center and
researchers for studies of global seismicity. The data communication channels with the IRIS DMC will
also provide ASSI with access to real-time data from hundreds of other stations throughout the globe,
to complement the data from the ASSI network for larger earthquakes, and a provide a backup archive
of all data collected by ASSI.
The PI from Pakistan side, Dr. MonaLisa, will be responsible for leading the work required to
select safe and appropriate sites for the ASSI stations. She has studied the requirements for a
seismographic network (MonaLisa, 2009) for Islamabad and its to surroundings and has proposed a set
of possible station locations (see Figure 1).
2. Setup of the ASSI Network: Pakistani managers and technicians will travel to the U.S. during
the first year for in-depth training on the equipment and the procedures used for network installation,
operation and maintenance. The equipment for the ASSI broadband and strong motion stations will be
purchased by the U.S. side (IRIS), based on the USArray and GRO-Chile design. The various
components will be assembled and tested jointly by U.S. and Pakistani engineers and technicians before
shipping to Pakistan. The Pakistani teams will carry out the actual installations in the Islamabad area in
a staged approach during the second and third years of the project. This work will include annual return
visits to the U.S. by the Pakistani engineering team for continued training on operations and
maintenance. The proposed site locations will be visited by key members of the team to make sure that
no significant detail has been overlooked. Local contractors under the guidance of Pakistani project
team will be utilized for setting up the instruments. After acceptance of the equipment and completion
of an MOU on data exchange and long term responsibility for maintenance of the network, title for
equipment will be transferred from IRIS to the Pakistani side. IRIS experience with the installation of
seismic stations in remote environments has shown that a long-term and stable engagement between
scientists and engineering staff in training and operations is essential to the successful installation and
operation of reliable monitoring networks.

Development of National Seismic Hazard Maps
1. Develop Detailed Methodology: The first task is to establish a detailed methodology and
framework for the development of NSH maps for Pakistan. Because there are limited available data for
characterizing regions of seismic activity, the methodology will likely include heuristic approaches for
the development of input parameters. It is recognized that as research continues, these approaches will
be replaced by detailed observational and recorded data. A first generation NSH maps will be
developed using this framework as a demonstration project. Computations will be performed using
probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analysis.
2. Compile Historic Seismicity Catalog: A complete seismicity catalog, to the extent possible,
will be developed to quantify regional earthquake activity and provide critical input for seismic hazard
analysis. A catalog for earthquakes with magnitude 3.0 and larger will be compiled for an area covering
all of Pakistan and approximately 200 km beyond its boundaries to include the effects of earthquakes
that may occur outside of the political boundaries of Pakistan but could still cause significant shaking
within the country. The raw data used in producing this catalog will be obtained from multiple sources
including the International Seismological Centre (ISC), USGS, local Pakistani, and regional sources.
As data emerge from the ASSI network, improved quantification of earthquake sources will be
possible, including waveform analysis to better constrain depth, moment and focal mechanisms.
3. Develop Model of Seismic Source Regions: A model that quantifies regions of seismic
activity will be developed to define all the active and potentially active seismic sources for the study
area. The seismic sources will be identified based on geologic, tectonic, and seismological information.
Consideration will be given to both the general area as well as specific faults and background
seismicity. Recommendations for the selection of fault and area sources to be used in the NSH maps
will be developed and will include guidance on how to identify and define each type of source.
Given the limited amount of data available for major earthquake sources in Pakistan, a
considerable amount of geological and geophysical judgment will be necessary initially to develop the
source model for the demonstration project. Information for input to this process will come from
literature review and discussions with professionals from institutions such as the Geological Survey of
Pakistan, Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, Pakistan Mineral Development Corporation, oil and
gas development companies, and other public and private organizations involved in geological
investigations in Pakistan. A tectonic map of Pakistan will be compiled using available existing maps
(e.g., Kazmi and Rana, 1982; Searle and Asif Khan, 1996; Hussain et al., 1996). Experience and
judgment from local geologists and researchers at the University of Peshawar, Quaid-i-Azam
University and other universities and institutions will be used to identify faults that are believed to be
active in the Late Quaternary.
4. Develop Seismicity Parameters: Seismicity parameters for each source zone will be
developed. Maximum expected earthquake magnitude for all source areas will be estimated using
published relationships such as those of Wells and Coppersmith, 1994 and modified, as needed, based
on the experience and judgment of active researchers in Pakistan. Magnitude recurrence relations will
be developed. Historic seismicity data as well as seismic moment estimates from observational data
will be used to constrain the recurrence relations for each seismic source region. When using historic
data, consideration will be given to the period of completeness for each magnitude interval using
techniques such as the maximum likelihood method.
5. Attenuation Relationship: There are no specific spatial attenuation relationships for seismic
waves propagating across Pakistan. Therefore, for this project appropriate attenuation relationships
from a database of existing relationships will be selected. We anticipate that different attenuation
relationships will be required for the various tectonic regimes across Pakistan. Several existing
attenuation relationships, including the recently published next generation attenuation (NGA)
relationships, will be evaluated on the basis of the limited ground motion observations in Pakistan,
supplemented by new data from ASSI, in order to select the most appropriate relationships.
6. Perform Seismic Hazard Analysis: Probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analysis
will be performed. Probabilistic analyses will be based on a grid of closely spaced points across
Pakistan to account for the spatial distribution of potential earthquakes along with their associated
probabilities of occurrence. Computations will be performed for at least two different probability levels
and at least three key seismic input parameters including peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak
spectral acceleration, and spectral acceleration for 1.0 period. This information will be used to calculate
seismic loads appropriate for engineering design. Deterministic ground motion computations will also
be performed using scenario events on known major faults such as the Chaman fault, the MBT and the
Makran subduction zone.
7. Incorporate Site Effects: Free surface earthquake ground motions are strongly dependent on
the type of near-surface material. Typical methodology employed in current U.S. codes rely on the
classification of subsurface conditions based on either the shear wave velocity or other geotechnical
parameters for the top 100 feet of the subsurface. The amplification factors for each class of subsurface
material have been developed based on significant analytical and empirical studies. Near-surface
geology data for Pakistan is more readily available than detailed geotechnical data and thus will be used
to develop the initial broad-based classification of the subsurface.
8. Prepare Seismic Hazard Maps: Seismic hazard maps will be made after incorporating the
seismic hazard results into a geographical information system (GIS) using the ARC/GIS software. In
addition to the hazard maps, the near -surface geology maps will also be incorporated in ARC/GIS.
These maps will be developed for at least two probability levels and three spectral parameters as
described previously. In the U.S., the probability levels in the current design codes are 90% and 98%
probability of not exceeding a level of peak acceleration in 50 years. These probability levels are
approximately equivalent to 0.002 and 0.0004 annual probability of exceedance. The proposed project
participants will discuss the appropriateness of these probability levels for use in Pakistan and will
discuss if a departure from these probability levels might be appropriate.
9. Documentation: A report describing the methodology, assumptions and limitations of the
work will be written. The analysis procedure, including the methodology, selection, and computation of
input parameters, will be documented in a clear and transparent manner and provided to Pakistani
researchers so that as new, more refined data are obtained, the seismic hazard maps can be revised by
Pakistani researchers building on this work. The project team will recommend future research topics
that Pakistani engineers, scientists and graduate students could undertake to refine the seismic hazard
maps developed as part of the current research project.
10. Disseminate Information: Data developed as part of this project such as the source model,
seismicity catalog, results, maps and progress reports will be uploaded to a project-developed website
maintained by CIIT. Open source software will be used for the development of NSH maps. All of the
input files and data will be uploaded to the website for open access.
3.f International Cooperation
The installation of the ASII network and the computational work for the development of seismic
hazard maps will be performed by the Pakistani researchers in Pakistan, with U.S. counterparts
providing direction, training and recommendations. Pakistani researchers, engineers and technicians
will be trained on state-of-the-art approaches and practices through a series of visits to U.S. facilities of
participating U.S. institutions (refer to Travel Detail table). In addition, IRIS will facilitate knowledge
transfer to the Pakistani counterparts through interaction with scientists at U.S. IRIS member
universities.
It is anticipated that the availability of open seismic data resulting from implementation of this
project will lead to the identification of numerous international collaborative research opportunities
between for Pakistani investigators with U.S. and other investigators worldwide.
3.g Relevance
The proposed project responds to the stated objective of the U.S.-Pakistan cooperative research
program of building capacity in Pakistani institutions of higher education in science and technology.
The U.S. counterparts will share knowledge of best practices in seismic network operations and hazard
assessment. The seismic hazard maps developed as part of this project will contribute to the
quantification of seismic hazard in Pakistan. The maps developed as part of this project will impact
Pakistani building codes for structures ranging from residential, industrial, public and commercial, to
infrastructure facilities and minimize the potential for damage from future earthquakes.
The technology employed in developing these maps will expose Pakistani researchers to current
methodologies used in the U.S. A key deliverable for this project, in addition to the seismic hazard
maps, will be a research needs summary document. This document will identify key areas of research
that can be undertaken by Pakistani graduate students to fill data gaps and enhance the input parameters
used in the development of these maps. It is envisioned that the research topics identified in this
document will form a mechanism for indigenous research work on topics that are urgently needed for
the development of the currently nascent earthquake engineering practice in Pakistan. This work will
open up new fields for research and help train a new generation of young scientists, seismologists,
geologists and earthquake engineers in Pakistan.
Development of ASSI will further improve the understanding of seismic hazards and will provide
much needed data for scientific research. The availability of open data will spur research in seismology
and related fields, and encourage the development of collaborative research projects between Pakistani
researchers and students and their counterparts in the U.S. and other countries.
3.h Results Statement
The results expected from this project are:
1. Establishment of an Advanced Seismic System for Islamabad and recommendations for
extending earthquake monitoring to the rest of the country.
2. Development of a methodology for seismic hazard mapping of Pakistan.
3. Development of a set of first generation national seismic hazard maps for Pakistan. These maps
will provide peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for 0.2 and 1.0 second periods of
vibration for two different probability levels. This information is sufficient to develop design response
spectrum for use in the seismic design of structures.
4. Compilation of a detailed seismicity catalog for Pakistan.
5. Compilation of existing information to develop a seismic source map for Pakistan that
delineates major seismic sources for Pakistan.
6. Recommendations for most appropriate attenuation relationships for use in Pakistan and their
limitations.
7. A near-surface geology map for Pakistan.
8. A Research Needs Summary Document that highlights data gaps and additional research needed
to improve the next generation of seismic hazard maps.
9. Dissemination of project results via COMSATS web sites.
10. Year-end progress reports and final project report.
11. A project-end workshop to disseminate results to the scientific and engineering community.

3.i Additional Benefits
In addition to meeting program objectives, it is anticipated that cooperation between U.S. and
Pakistani counterparts will facilitate future collaborations between the scientific and engineering
communities. The interaction on the project will provide Pakistani researchers with valuable data such
as relevant reports and technical documents, and will familiarize them with U.S. hazard maps and
building codes and standards of practice and the direction of current research in the U.S. in earthquake
engineering and related fields. Interaction between researchers from CIIT with their counterparts in the
U.S. will help strengthen the existing setup of CIIT seismology group. Furthermore, this project will
serve the ongoing effort by NDMA to bring earthquake awareness to general public in Pakistan.

3.j Executive Matters / Budget Requirements

i. Timetable
Work Completed Deliverable
Project leaders meet in U.S. to develop detailed plan Prepare and sign MOU between IRIS
Framework for ASSI; list of potential station locations; and CIIT
procurement of set of equipment and training in U.S. ASSI framework draft report and initial
1 · Methodology for NSH maps established station operation
r
ea · Completion of seismicity catalog, seismic source map and
Y
near surface geology map NSH maps methodology draft report
· Set up project website Seismicity catalog, fault map, seismic
source map and near surface geology
map
2 · Finalize of ASSI station locations and installation Initiation of ASSI operation, data
r · Selection of attenuation relationships, performance of collection and delivery
a
Ye probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analysis and Completion of draft NSH maps
preparation of draft NSH maps
· Conduct three workshops (locations to be decided) Hold workshops
· Finalize maps and publish ·Final set of maps
r 3 · Upload maps and related documents on website ·Final report with research needs
a
e · Complete final report and research needs summary document
Y
Distribute report and electronic data

ii. Request justification
Equipment
1) Miscellaneous computer and plotter hardware and software are required by the Pakistani side to
improve facilities for storage, analysis and plotting of data
2) Cost for a combination of four broadband and six strong motion instruments are based on IRIS
experience with purchase of over 400 systems for IRIS USArray and GRO-Chile stations.