Final thesis - Roland Sims aa

449 Pages·2014·28.76 MB·English

by  Roland Sims

Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment of
the Electrification of Residential Heat
Supply in UK Cities

A thesis submitted to the University of Manchester for the
degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Faculty of
Engineering and Physical Sciences

2014

Roland Jeffrey Sims

School of Chemical Engineering and Analytical Science
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Contents
1. Introduction ............................................................................................. 28
1.1 Project aims, objectives and novelty ..................................................................... 29
1.2 Thesis structure ..................................................................................................... 30
2. Review of electrification of heat, heating technologies and sustainability32
2.1 Electrification of heat ............................................................................................ 32
2.1.1 Historical perspective ..................................................................................... 32
2.1.2 Potential drivers for the electrification of heat ............................................... 33
2.1.2.1 City redevelopments ............................................................................... 33
2.1.2.2 Policies .................................................................................................... 35
2.1.2.3 Planning .................................................................................................. 36
2.1.2.4 Regulations .............................................................................................. 37
2.1.2.5 Energy security........................................................................................ 39
2.1.2.6 Energy poverty ........................................................................................ 39
2.1.3 Implications of the electrification of heat on energy supply in cities ............ 42
2.1.3.1 Existing energy supply and generation ................................................... 42
2.1.4 Sustainability of heating technologies ........................................................... 43
2.1.4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................. 43
2.1.4.2 Resistance electric heating ...................................................................... 48
2.1.4.2.1 Description of resistance electric heating ........................................ 48
2.1.4.2.2 Environmental sustainability of electric heating .............................. 49
2.1.4.2.3 Economic sustainability of electric heating ..................................... 50
2.1.4.3 Heat pumps ............................................................................................. 51
2.1.4.3.1 Description of heat pumps ............................................................... 51
2.1.4.3.2 Environmental sustainability of heat pumps .................................... 51
2.1.4.3.3 Economic sustainability of heat pumps............................................ 52
2.1.4.4 Gas heating .............................................................................................. 53
2.1.4.4.1 Description of gas boiler heating ..................................................... 53
2.1.4.4.2 Environmental sustainability of gas boiler heating .......................... 55
2.1.4.4.3 Economic sustainability of gas boiler heating ................................. 55
2.1.4.5 District heating ........................................................................................ 56
2.1.4.5.1 Description of district heating .......................................................... 56
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2.1.4.5.2 Environmental sustainability of district heating .............................. 58
2.1.4.5.3 Economic sustainability of district heating ...................................... 59
2.1.4.6 Combined heat and power (CHP) ........................................................... 60
2.1.4.6.1 Description of CHP technologies ..................................................... 60
2.1.4.6.2 Environmental sustainability of CHP technologies ......................... 61
2.1.4.6.3 Economic sustainability of CHP technologies ................................. 62
2.1.4.7 Solar thermal ........................................................................................... 63
2.1.4.7.1 Description of solar thermal ............................................................. 63
2.1.4.7.2 Environmental sustainability of solar thermal ................................. 65
2.1.4.7.3 Economic sustainability of solar thermal ......................................... 66
2.2 Social sustainability .............................................................................................. 67
2.2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 67
2.2.2 Sustainability indicators, sustainable communities and energy ..................... 68
2.2.3 Social sustainability research design .............................................................. 69
2.3 Air quality monitoring – direct emissions ............................................................. 72
2.3.1 Carbon Monoxide (CO) ................................................................................. 72
2.3.2 Volatile organic compounds (VOCs). ............................................................ 73
2.3.3 Nitrogen Dioxide (NO ). ................................................................................ 74
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2.3.4 Sulphur Dioxide (SO ) ................................................................................... 74
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2.3.5 Carbon dioxide (CO ). ................................................................................... 75
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2.3.6 Other studies .................................................................................................. 75
2.4 Summary of heat electrification, heating technologies and sustainability ............ 76
3. Methodology: a framework for sustainability assessment of the
electrification of heat................................................................................... 77
3.1 Methodology overview ......................................................................................... 77
3.2 Methodology description ...................................................................................... 78
3.2.1 Environmental sustainability (1a) .................................................................. 78
3.2.1.1 Life cycle assessment .............................................................................. 78
3.2.1.2 Indoor air quality assessment (IAQ) ....................................................... 80
3.2.2 Economic sustainability (1b) ......................................................................... 83
3.2.3 Social sustainability (1c) ................................................................................ 85
3.2.4 Heat-providing systems (2) ............................................................................ 87
3.2.5 Scenario analysis (3) ...................................................................................... 88
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3.2.6 Multi-criteria decision analysis – (MCDA) (4) .............................................. 89
3.2.7 Results and recommendations (5) .................................................................. 91
3.3 Summary ............................................................................................................... 91
4. Evaluation of environmental sustainability ............................................ 92
4.1 Evaluation of environmental sustainability: Life cycle impacts ........................... 92
4.1.1 Goal and scope of the LCA study .................................................................. 92
4.1.1.1 Functional unit ........................................................................................ 92
4.1.1.2 Assumptions and limitations ................................................................... 94
4.1.2 Inventory data................................................................................................. 95
4.1.3 LCA modelling and impact assessment ....................................................... 102
4.1.4 Electric panel system ................................................................................... 102
4.1.4.1 System description ................................................................................ 103
4.1.4.2 Impact assessment ................................................................................. 105
4.1.5 Electric storage system ................................................................................. 107
4.1.5.1 System description ................................................................................ 108
4.1.5.2 Impact assessment ................................................................................. 110
4.1.6 Air source heat pump system (ASHP) ......................................................... 112
4.1.6.1 System description ................................................................................ 113
4.1.6.2 Impact assessment ................................................................................. 115
4.1.7 Gas boiler system ......................................................................................... 117
4.1.7.1 System description ................................................................................ 118
4.1.7.2 Impact assessment ................................................................................. 119
4.1.8 Combined gas and electric system ............................................................... 122
4.1.8.1 System description ................................................................................ 123
4.1.8.2 Impact assessment ................................................................................. 124
4.1.9 District heating system ................................................................................. 126
4.1.9.1 System description ................................................................................ 128
4.1.9.2 Impact assessment ................................................................................. 129
4.1.10 Combined heating and power system ........................................................ 132
4.1.10.1 System description .............................................................................. 133
4.1.10.2 Impact assessment ............................................................................... 134
4.1.11 Combined solar thermal and gas system .................................................... 136
4.1.11.1 System description .............................................................................. 138
4.1.11.2 Impact assessment ............................................................................... 139
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4.1.12 Discussion of the heating system assessment ............................................ 142
4.1.12.1 Overview of the results ....................................................................... 142
4.1.12.2 Contribution analysis - based on impact indicator .............................. 146
4.1.13 Hot spot analysis ........................................................................................ 148
4.1.13.1 Disposal ............................................................................................... 148
4.1.13.2 Installation ........................................................................................... 150
4.1.13.3 Maintenance and servicing impacts .................................................... 151
4.1.13.4 Wet heating system and hot water storage .......................................... 152
4.1.13.5 Energy usage from water and space heating demand changes ........... 154
4.1.14 Life cycle emissions from the electrification of heat in cities ................... 155
4.1.15 Summary .................................................................................................... 158
4.2 Evaluation of environmental sustainability: Indoor Air Quality Monitoring (IAQ)160
4.2.1 Goal and scope definition............................................................................. 160
4.2.2 Assumption and limitations.......................................................................... 161
4.2.3 Air quality monitoring sensors, data acquisition and studied homes ........... 163
4.2.4 Inventory analysis and results ...................................................................... 165
4.2.4.1 Indoor/outdoor concentrations .............................................................. 166
4.2.4.2 Individual household air quality results over 14 days ........................... 167
4.2.4.3 Individual household (indoor and outdoor) event results ..................... 169
4.2.4.4 Individual household indoor cooking event results .............................. 172
4.2.5 Principal component analysis ....................................................................... 175
4.2.5.1 Summer kitchen and outdoor results ..................................................... 175
4.2.5.2 Winter kitchen and outdoor results ....................................................... 178
4.2.5.3 Summer and winter kitchen results ....................................................... 179
4.2.6 Discussion of the kitchen emission monitoring results ................................ 181
4.2.7 Summary ...................................................................................................... 182
5. Evaluation of economic sustainability using Life Cycle Costing (LCC)184
5.1 Goal and scope definition .................................................................................... 184
5.1.1 Functional unit ............................................................................................. 185
5.1.2 Assumption and limitations.......................................................................... 185
5.2 Life cycle costs of different heating systems ...................................................... 189
5.2.1 Electric panel system ................................................................................... 190
5.2.2 Electric storage system ................................................................................. 192
5.2.3 Air source heat pump system ....................................................................... 194
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5.2.4 Gas boiler system ......................................................................................... 196
5.2.5 Combined gas and electric system ............................................................... 199
5.2.6 District heating system ................................................................................. 201
5.2.7 Community CHP system .............................................................................. 204
5.2.8 Solar thermal and gas system ....................................................................... 206
5.3 Comparison of the LCC of different heat-providing systems ............................. 208
5.4 Sensitivity analysis .............................................................................................. 216
5.4.1 Operational energy costs .............................................................................. 216
5.4.2 Construction and energy costs ..................................................................... 217
5.5 Summary ............................................................................................................. 219
6. Evaluation of social sustainability using stakeholder interviews ......... 221
6.1 Goal and scope definition .................................................................................... 221
6.2 Methodology ....................................................................................................... 221
6.3 Survey of apartment occupants ........................................................................... 222
6.3.1 Pilot survey .................................................................................................. 222
6.3.2 Main online survey ....................................................................................... 226
6.3.3 Online survey results .................................................................................... 228
6.3.4 Discussion of the findings of the online survey ........................................... 245
6.4 Survey of stakeholders in organisations .............................................................. 247
6.4.1 Stakeholder interviews ................................................................................. 249
6.4.2 Identification of indicators results ................................................................ 255
6.4.3 Emerging theory of electrification of heat results ........................................ 256
6.4.4 Relationship assessment results ................................................................... 257
6.4.5 Discussion of the results............................................................................... 259
6.4.6 Summary ...................................................................................................... 261
7. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) ............................................. 263
7.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 263
7.1.1 Aims and objectives of MCDA .................................................................... 263
7.1.2 Assumptions and limitations ........................................................................ 263
7.2 Identification and selection of decision criteria .................................................. 264
7.2.1 Environmental criteria .................................................................................. 264
7.2.2 Techno-economic criteria............................................................................. 264
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7.2.3 Social criteria ............................................................................................... 265
7.3 Results from sustainability assessment through multi-criteria decision analysis 266
7.3.1 Ranking of the systems when all sustainability aspects are equally important
............................................................................................................................... 267
7.3.2 Ranking of the systems when environmental impacts are most important .. 273
7.3.3 Ranking of the systems when techno-economic impacts are most important
............................................................................................................................... 273
7.3.4 Ranking of the systems when social impacts are most important ................ 274
7.3.5 Ranking of systems with decarbonisation of electricity .............................. 275
7.4 Discussion of results ........................................................................................... 276
7.5 Summary ............................................................................................................. 280
8. Sustainability assessment of energy supply and demand mixes – future
scenarios .................................................................................................... 281
8.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 281
8.1.1 Aims and objectives ..................................................................................... 281
8.1.2 Assumptions and limitations ........................................................................ 281
8.1.3 Methodology ................................................................................................ 282
8.2 Description of selected scenarios ........................................................................ 284
8.2.1 Reference – national scenario ...................................................................... 288
8.2.1.1 Electricity supply .................................................................................. 288
8.2.1.2 Domestic energy demand ...................................................................... 288
8.2.2 High electricity scenario .............................................................................. 289
8.2.2.1 Electricity supply .................................................................................. 290
8.2.2.2 Domestic energy demand ...................................................................... 290
8.2.3 National Grid scenario ................................................................................. 291
8.2.3.1 Electricity supply .................................................................................. 292
8.2.3.2 Domestic energy demand ...................................................................... 292
8.2.4 Markal analogous 3.26 scenario ................................................................... 293
8.2.4.1 Electricity supply .................................................................................. 293
8.2.4.2 Domestic energy demand ...................................................................... 293
8.2.5 Reference – Urban scenario ......................................................................... 294
8.2.5.1 Electricity supply .................................................................................. 295
8.2.5.2 Domestic energy demand ...................................................................... 295
8.2.6 Urban One scenario ...................................................................................... 296
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8.2.6.1 Electricity supply .................................................................................. 296
8.2.6.2 Domestic energy demand ...................................................................... 296
8.2.7 Urban Two scenario ..................................................................................... 297
8.2.7.1 Electricity supply .................................................................................. 298
8.2.7.2 Domestic energy demand ...................................................................... 298
8.3 Sustainability assessment of scenarios ................................................................ 298
8.3.1 Environmental sustainability assessment ..................................................... 299
8.3.2 Techno-economic sustainability assessment ................................................ 308
8.3.3 Social sustainability assessment ................................................................... 312
8.4 Summary of sustainability assessment of future UK energy scenarios .............. 315
8.5 Summary ............................................................................................................. 317
9. Conclusions, recommendations & further work ................................... 319
9.1 Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 319
9.1.1 Current electrification of heat of residential heat supply in cities ............... 320
9.1.2 Future electrification of heat of residential heat supply in cities ................. 324
9.2 Recommendations ............................................................................................... 327
9.2.1 General recommendations ............................................................................ 327
9.2.2 Specific recommendations ........................................................................... 327
9.3 Future work ......................................................................................................... 328
9.4 Concluding remark .............................................................................................. 329
10. References ........................................................................................... 332
11 Appendix 1: Common sources of pollutants and guidelines on concentrations and
durations of pollutants for the indoor environment ................................................... 349
11.1 Sources of common relevant pollutants in the indoor environment (Maroni
et al., 1995) from (Jones et al., 2002). .............................................................. 349
11.2 Indoor pollutants guidelines. ..................................................................... 349
12 Appendix 2: Description of life cycle assessment (LCA) .................................... 351
12.1 Standards and process ............................................................................... 351
12.2 Life cycle environmental impact indicators. ............................................. 351
13 Appendix 3: Social sustainability ......................................................................... 353
13.1 Online questionnaire using Qualtrics. ....................................................... 353
13.2 Stakeholders interviewed. ......................................................................... 371
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13.3 Key stakeholders questionnaire/topic guide – all stakeholder groups. ..... 372
14 Appendix 4: Heat-providing apartment block photographs ................................. 375
15 Appendix 5: Manchester city apartment study ..................................................... 377
16 Appendix 6: Data sources and collection for environmental and techno-economic
study .......................................................................................................................... 387
17 Appendix 7: Twenty English cities with the largest populations ......................... 390
17.1 Largest twenty cities in England 2010 (ONS, 2011) ................................ 390
18 Appendix 8: Indoor air quality monitoring – unit and process information ........ 391
18.1 Air monitoring unit sensor technical details. ............................................ 392
18.2 Data collection methods and analysis techniques performed on the air
quality monitoring ............................................................................................. 392
18.3 Occupants diary used during air quality monitoring in homes. ................ 393
18.4 PCA data summary for homes inside and outside emission during summer
monitoring. ........................................................................................................ 395
18.5 PCA data summary for homes inside and outside emission during winter
monitoring ......................................................................................................... 395
18.6 PCA data summary for homes inside emissions during summer and winter
monitoring ......................................................................................................... 396
18.7 PCA data summary for homes outside emission during summer and winter
monitoring ......................................................................................................... 397
19 Appendix 9: Stakeholder surveys ......................................................................... 398
19.1 Pilot survey of occupants – questionnaire and summary results (in blue).
........................................................................................................................... 398
19.2 Qualitative to quantitative conversion table .............................................. 402
19.3 On-line questionnaire - participant information sheet .............................. 404
20 Appendix 10: Development of grounded theory for the electrification of heat ... 407
20.1 Emergence of categories from common themes in the data from
organisation interviews ..................................................................................... 407
20.2 Emergence of concepts from codes........................................................... 422
21 Appendix 11: Quantitative data processing ......................................................... 430
21.1 Quantitative normalised data for each system used in MCDA. ................ 430
22 Appendix 12: Multi-criteria decision analysis robustness diagrams.................... 432
23 Appendix 13: Population and household data used for scenario development .... 441
23.1 Population data for UK as used in national scenarios. .............................. 441
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