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Federal Forecasters Conference/1991 : papers & proceedings : Washington, D.C., September 12, 1991 PDF

154 Pages·1992·11.3 MB·English
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Historic, Archive Document Do not assume content reflects current scientific knowledge, policies, or practices. Federal Forecasters Conference/1991 PAPERS & PROCEEDINGS OF THE CONFERENCE Cosponsored by Bureau of Labor Statistics • Economic Research Service • Central Intelligence Agency National Center for Education Statistics • Environmental Protection Agency Office of Technology Assessment • Bureau of Economic Analysis Bureau of the Census • Bureau of Health Professions Washington, DC September 12,1991 United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Library Federal Forecasters Conference/1991 iic department of agriculture JiATlONAL AGRICULTURAL LIBRARY MAR a W5 FFC/91 Organizing Committee Co-chairmen: Norman C. Saunders, Bureau of Labor Statistics PAPERS Howard N Fullerton, Jr. Bureau of Labor Statistics & PROCEEDINGS Committee members: Zoe Ambargis Bureau of Economic Analysis Peter Blau- Office of Technology Assessment Paul Campbell Bureau of the Census Debra Gerald National Center for Education Statistics Karen S. Hamrick Economic Research Service John Kort Bureau of Economic Analysis Walter A. Rosenbaum Environmental Protection Agency Herbert Traxler Bureau of Health Professions Methodology Center Central Intelligence Agency Washington, D.C. September 12,1991 received Byc 'ndexing Branch FFC/91 Papers & Proceedings Table of Contents FFC/91 Morning Session Welcome to US DA and FFC/91—Dr. Bruce Gardner.1 FFC/91 Keynote Speaker—Dr. Courtenay Slater.3 Federal Forecasting Coordination From the Senior Manager’s Point of View—William Butz, Dr. Calvin Kent, and Ronald E. Kutscher.7 FFC/91 Afternoon Sessions Forecast Evaluation I Forecasting Practices in the Federal Government—Dr. Stuart Bretschneider.17 U.S. Department of Agriculture Forecasts: Pesonal Comments on GAO’s Forecast Evaluation Methodology—David R. Solenberger.25 Discussants’ Remarks on the Bretschneider and Solenberger papers—Debra Gerald and Marshall Kolin.29 Forecasting Techniques I Using Dynamic Interactions to Aid Forecasts: The Case of Selected Urban/Rural Employment Measures—Ronald A. Babula.32 Discussant’s Remarks on the Babula paper—Frederick L. Joutz.37 Structural Models and Some Automated Alternatives for Forecasting Farmland Prices—Karl Gertel and Linda Atkinson.38 Discussant’s Remarks on the Gertel/Atkinson paper—Frederick L. Joutz.44 The Use of Dummy Variables and the Computation of Unbiased Predictions, Prediction Errors, and Confidence Intervals in Nonlinear Models—William A. Donnelly.45 Issues in Occupational and Regional Projections How BLS Projects Employment by Occupations—Daniel Hecker.57 Total and Net Occupational Separation Data—Alan Eck.59 The National-Regional Impact Evaluation System II (NRIES II): Improved Structure, Linkages, and Performance of a Multiregional Macroeconomic Model of the United States—C. Thomas Lienesch and John R. Kort...66 l FFC/91 Papers & Proceedings Table of Contents (Cont.) Forecast Program Management Developing an Effective Forecasting Program: An Economic Approach—Ralph M. Monaco.74 Why Do Forecasters Fail to Predict the ‘Big” (Unusual) Event?—Herman O. Stekler.78 Neural Networks and Exchange Rate Forecasts—David Stallings.80 Forecast Evaluation II Evaluating the Age Distribution in State Population Projections—Paul R. Campbell.89 The Challenge of Finding the Present: Starting Points for Forecasting the Future—Jennifer C. Day.94 Early Estimates of Education Statistics: How Do We Know If They’re Useful?—Robert Burton.98 Using Principal Components in Time Series Modeling and Forecasting of Age-Specific Mortality Rates—William Bell and Brian Monsell.103 Issues in Energy Forecasting Developing Long-Term Energy Projections for the National Energy Strategy—Arthur Ry pin ski.114 Methodological Issues in the Analysis of Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Taxes—Ronald F. Earley and Kay A. Smith.118 The Development of the National Energy Modeling System—C. William Skinner.123 Issues in Health Occupations Forecasting The Availability, Utility and Comparability of Federal Data to the Bureau of Health Professions—Sandra Gamliel.125 Expanding the Health Personnel Components of Secondary Data Sources—Edward S. Sekscenski.127 Using and Building on Association Data Bases in Federal Sector Health Personnel Analysis—Herbert Traxler.130 Forecasting Techniques n Annual Precipitation Estimates 1 to 4 Years In Advance—Charles A. Perry.134 Forecasting Grain Losses in Chinese Agriculture from Natural Hazards: A Kalman Filter Approach—HaoQuan Chu.137 Other Abstracts.144 - ii - FFC/91 Papers & Proceedings Now I would like to introduce to you the man who will Morning Session—FFC/91 welcome all of us to this beautiful facility at the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Mr. Saunders: Good morning and welcome to the Fourth Annual For the past two years Bruce Gardner has been the Assistant Federal Forecasters Conference, FFC/91.1 am Norman Saunders. Secretary of Agriculture for Economics. In that role he exercises I work with the Bureau of Labor Statistics and I’m co-chairman of direction and oversight of USDA’s economic and statistical the Organizing Committee for this year’s Federal Forecasting agencies and functions as the Agriculture Department’s chief Conference. economist. Dr. Gardner has taught at the University of Maryland, The FFC has grown tremendously this year. Three agencies Texas A&M University, and North Carolina State University. He have been added to the sponsor’s list. Registrations have jumped has served as Senior Staff Economist at the President’s Council of from about 200 last year to 260 this year. And the number of papers Economic Advisors. Please welcome Dr. Bruce Gardner. presented has doubled this year, presenting you with the rather pleasant quandary of deciding which to attend. Dr. Gardner: Thanks very much, Norman. I would like to The credit for all of this must go to those agencies that welcome you to the Department of Agriculture for this annual support the FFC and to the representatives of those agencies who Federal Forecasters Conference. have served on the Organizing Committee. I would like to take just We all know forecasting data tends to be a thankless task. a minute now to introduce each of these people to you. I’m sure that the professionals at the agencies I deal with— the First, I want to thank my co-chairman, also with the Bureau National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), the World Board, of Labor Statistics, Mr. Howard Fullerton. Representing the the Economic Research Service— know about this thanklessness Bureau of Economic Analysis, in the Department of Commerce, from my point of view because I’ve had many occasions to use Zoe Ambargis and John Kort. From the Office of Technology their forecasts and I hardly ever thank them when they are right. Assessment, U.S.Congress, Peter Blair. Representing the Census Instead, I ask why they missed foreseeing such and such. And of Bureau, in the U.S. Department of Commerce, Paul Campbell. course, one can almost always ask this question because almost no Representing the National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. forecast will be correct; and often they are not even close. With Department of Education, Debra Gerald. From the Economic this in mind, I think all of us will find heartening a recent article Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Karen Hamrick. that appeared in the London Financial Times of September 5, Representing the Environmental Protection Agency, Walter 1991. The Times was commenting on a controversy about Rosenbaum. From the Bureau of Health Professions in the U.S. USDA’s cattle-on-feed statistics. Department of Health and Human Services, Herbert Traxler. Some in the cattle industry have been questioning the cattle- Finally, we want to thank the Methodology Center of the Central on-feed inventory estimates because the slaughter of cattle after Intelligence Agency for their financial support. these estimates were published did not indicate the number of FFC/91 Organizing Committee: From left to right, Howard Fullerton, BLS; Debra Gerald, NCES; Herbert Traxler, BHPr, Paul Campbell, Census; Zo6 Ambargis, BEA; Norman Saunders, BLS; Karen Hamrick, ERS; and John Kort, BEA. - 1 - FFC/91 Papers & Proceedings cattle going to market that the number we said were on feed would the cattle business were led to believe more optimistic suggest should have been going to market. scenarios than reality warranted. Based on these The conclusion was drawn that NASS was overstating the misinterpretations of the facts, cattlemen proceeded number of cattle on feed. However, in the last few weeks it appears to keep their animals in feedlots longer. This was to that cattle have begun to come to market in larger numbers and, prove a disastrous mistake.” more importantly, these are heavier cattle. As a result, cattle prices have taken a substantial fall. The steer prices you see quoted Now, I found this article heartening in that this is a case where at Kansas City are other indicators of prices. people felt the sting of not believing our numbers when our The Financial Times had an article on September 5 com¬ numbers turned out to be right. This episode prompts me to issue menting on this situation. They are commenting on the fall in an overdue note of appreciation to all those who provide the cattle prices, and this is what they say: projections, outlooks, estimates, guesses that policy-making is absolutely dependent upon. “Why the markets took such a tumble is a matter In addition to that note of appreciation, I have also been of controversy. At the center of it is a Denver-based impressed, in the statistical agencies, with the extent of effort in producer’s organization called CattleFax. Earlier this trying to improve forecasts. You look at the deviations between year, CattleFax questioned the figures from the U.S. what has been forecasted and what actually occurred, have spent FFC/91 Forecasung Contest Winners: From left to right, Clifford Woodruff, BEA; Betty Su, BLS; Thomas Snyder, NCES; Thomas Hady, ERS (Overall Winner); Sal Corallo, NCES; Patrick Walker, U.S. Courts; and Lawrence Sink, Census. Department of Agriculture on the number of cattle in a lot of effort try ing to find out why these deviations have occurred, feedlots, saying that based on returns from its own and on how to improve things. I am sure that the drive to improve members it believed there were some 300,000 fewer our product is a big part of why you are all here today. cattle in lots than the USDA calculated. It suggested So, with that, I welcome you and hope you have a productive that the demand for beef was set to continue and conference. Thank you. consequently that prices would not lose more than six cents a pound going into the summer when seasonally- Mr. Saunders: Thank you, Dr. Gardner. We come now to the plentiful supplies usually bring a price drop. moment that at least 47 of you have been waiting for the “The organization turned out to be wrong about announcement of the results of the First Annual Federal Forecast¬ cattle numbers and about the prospects for prices, ing Contest. To carry out this pleasant task, I would like to which plummeted. But before this was clear, introduce our two contest administrators, Debra Gerald and Karen CattleFax’s doubts about the USDA figures had Hamrick. prompted a crisis regarding the government data among industry analysts, particularly in some influential Ms. Hamrick: For the first time, this year’s conference sponsored security houses.’The result of this was that many in a forecasting contest, and Debra Gerald and I volunteered to -2-

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