Federal Forecasters Conference/1991 : papers & proceedings : Washington, D.C., September 12, 1991

154 Pages·1992·11.3 MB·English

by  Federal Forecasters Conference (4th : 1991 : Washington, D.C.)

Historic, Archive Document
Do not assume content reflects current
scientific knowledge, policies, or practices.

Federal Forecasters
Conference/1991
PAPERS & PROCEEDINGS
OF THE CONFERENCE
Cosponsored by
Bureau of Labor Statistics • Economic Research Service • Central Intelligence Agency
National Center for Education Statistics • Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Technology Assessment • Bureau of Economic Analysis
Bureau of the Census • Bureau of Health Professions
Washington, DC
September 12,1991
United States
Department of
Agriculture
National Agricultural Library
Federal Forecasters
Conference/1991
iic department of agriculture
JiATlONAL AGRICULTURAL LIBRARY
MAR a W5 FFC/91 Organizing Committee
Co-chairmen:
Norman C. Saunders,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
PAPERS Howard N Fullerton, Jr.
Bureau of Labor Statistics
&
PROCEEDINGS
Committee members:
Zoe Ambargis
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Peter Blau-
Office of Technology Assessment
Paul Campbell
Bureau of the Census
Debra Gerald
National Center for Education Statistics
Karen S. Hamrick
Economic Research Service
John Kort
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Walter A. Rosenbaum
Environmental Protection Agency
Herbert Traxler
Bureau of Health Professions
Methodology Center
Central Intelligence Agency
Washington, D.C.
September 12,1991
received Byc
'ndexing Branch

FFC/91 Papers & Proceedings
Table of Contents
FFC/91 Morning Session
Welcome to US DA and FFC/91—Dr. Bruce Gardner.1
FFC/91 Keynote Speaker—Dr. Courtenay Slater.3
Federal Forecasting Coordination From the Senior Manager’s
Point of View—William Butz, Dr. Calvin Kent, and Ronald E. Kutscher.7
FFC/91 Afternoon Sessions
Forecast Evaluation I
Forecasting Practices in the Federal Government—Dr. Stuart Bretschneider.17
U.S. Department of Agriculture Forecasts: Pesonal Comments on GAO’s Forecast
Evaluation Methodology—David R. Solenberger.25
Discussants’ Remarks on the Bretschneider and Solenberger papers—Debra Gerald
and Marshall Kolin.29
Forecasting Techniques I
Using Dynamic Interactions to Aid Forecasts: The Case of Selected
Urban/Rural Employment Measures—Ronald A. Babula.32
Discussant’s Remarks on the Babula paper—Frederick L. Joutz.37
Structural Models and Some Automated Alternatives for
Forecasting Farmland Prices—Karl Gertel and Linda Atkinson.38
Discussant’s Remarks on the Gertel/Atkinson paper—Frederick L. Joutz.44
The Use of Dummy Variables and the Computation of Unbiased Predictions,
Prediction Errors, and Confidence Intervals in Nonlinear Models—William A. Donnelly.45
Issues in Occupational and Regional Projections
How BLS Projects Employment by Occupations—Daniel Hecker.57
Total and Net Occupational Separation Data—Alan Eck.59
The National-Regional Impact Evaluation System II (NRIES II): Improved
Structure, Linkages, and Performance of a Multiregional Macroeconomic Model
of the United States—C. Thomas Lienesch and John R. Kort...66
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FFC/91 Papers & Proceedings
Table of Contents (Cont.)
Forecast Program Management
Developing an Effective Forecasting Program: An Economic
Approach—Ralph M. Monaco.74
Why Do Forecasters Fail to Predict the ‘Big” (Unusual) Event?—Herman O. Stekler.78
Neural Networks and Exchange Rate Forecasts—David Stallings.80
Forecast Evaluation II
Evaluating the Age Distribution in State Population Projections—Paul R. Campbell.89
The Challenge of Finding the Present: Starting Points for Forecasting
the Future—Jennifer C. Day.94
Early Estimates of Education Statistics: How Do We Know If
They’re Useful?—Robert Burton.98
Using Principal Components in Time Series Modeling and Forecasting
of Age-Specific Mortality Rates—William Bell and Brian Monsell.103
Issues in Energy Forecasting
Developing Long-Term Energy Projections for the National
Energy Strategy—Arthur Ry pin ski.114
Methodological Issues in the Analysis of Macroeconomic Impacts
of Energy Taxes—Ronald F. Earley and Kay A. Smith.118
The Development of the National Energy Modeling System—C. William Skinner.123
Issues in Health Occupations Forecasting
The Availability, Utility and Comparability of Federal Data to the
Bureau of Health Professions—Sandra Gamliel.125
Expanding the Health Personnel Components of Secondary
Data Sources—Edward S. Sekscenski.127
Using and Building on Association Data Bases in Federal Sector
Health Personnel Analysis—Herbert Traxler.130
Forecasting Techniques n
Annual Precipitation Estimates 1 to 4 Years In Advance—Charles A. Perry.134
Forecasting Grain Losses in Chinese Agriculture from Natural
Hazards: A Kalman Filter Approach—HaoQuan Chu.137
Other Abstracts.144
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FFC/91 Papers & Proceedings
Now I would like to introduce to you the man who will
Morning Session—FFC/91
welcome all of us to this beautiful facility at the U.S. Department
of Agriculture.
Mr. Saunders: Good morning and welcome to the Fourth Annual For the past two years Bruce Gardner has been the Assistant
Federal Forecasters Conference, FFC/91.1 am Norman Saunders. Secretary of Agriculture for Economics. In that role he exercises
I work with the Bureau of Labor Statistics and I’m co-chairman of direction and oversight of USDA’s economic and statistical
the Organizing Committee for this year’s Federal Forecasting agencies and functions as the Agriculture Department’s chief
Conference. economist. Dr. Gardner has taught at the University of Maryland,
The FFC has grown tremendously this year. Three agencies Texas A&M University, and North Carolina State University. He
have been added to the sponsor’s list. Registrations have jumped has served as Senior Staff Economist at the President’s Council of
from about 200 last year to 260 this year. And the number of papers Economic Advisors. Please welcome Dr. Bruce Gardner.
presented has doubled this year, presenting you with the rather
pleasant quandary of deciding which to attend. Dr. Gardner: Thanks very much, Norman. I would like to
The credit for all of this must go to those agencies that welcome you to the Department of Agriculture for this annual
support the FFC and to the representatives of those agencies who Federal Forecasters Conference.
have served on the Organizing Committee. I would like to take just We all know forecasting data tends to be a thankless task.
a minute now to introduce each of these people to you. I’m sure that the professionals at the agencies I deal with— the
First, I want to thank my co-chairman, also with the Bureau National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), the World Board,
of Labor Statistics, Mr. Howard Fullerton. Representing the the Economic Research Service— know about this thanklessness
Bureau of Economic Analysis, in the Department of Commerce, from my point of view because I’ve had many occasions to use
Zoe Ambargis and John Kort. From the Office of Technology their forecasts and I hardly ever thank them when they are right.
Assessment, U.S.Congress, Peter Blair. Representing the Census Instead, I ask why they missed foreseeing such and such. And of
Bureau, in the U.S. Department of Commerce, Paul Campbell. course, one can almost always ask this question because almost no
Representing the National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. forecast will be correct; and often they are not even close. With
Department of Education, Debra Gerald. From the Economic this in mind, I think all of us will find heartening a recent article
Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Karen Hamrick. that appeared in the London Financial Times of September 5,
Representing the Environmental Protection Agency, Walter 1991. The Times was commenting on a controversy about
Rosenbaum. From the Bureau of Health Professions in the U.S. USDA’s cattle-on-feed statistics.
Department of Health and Human Services, Herbert Traxler. Some in the cattle industry have been questioning the cattle-
Finally, we want to thank the Methodology Center of the Central on-feed inventory estimates because the slaughter of cattle after
Intelligence Agency for their financial support. these estimates were published did not indicate the number of
FFC/91 Organizing Committee: From left to right, Howard Fullerton, BLS; Debra Gerald, NCES; Herbert Traxler, BHPr, Paul Campbell,
Census; Zo6 Ambargis, BEA; Norman Saunders, BLS; Karen Hamrick, ERS; and John Kort, BEA.
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FFC/91 Papers & Proceedings
cattle going to market that the number we said were on feed would the cattle business were led to believe more optimistic
suggest should have been going to market. scenarios than reality warranted. Based on these
The conclusion was drawn that NASS was overstating the misinterpretations of the facts, cattlemen proceeded
number of cattle on feed. However, in the last few weeks it appears to keep their animals in feedlots longer. This was to
that cattle have begun to come to market in larger numbers and, prove a disastrous mistake.”
more importantly, these are heavier cattle. As a result, cattle
prices have taken a substantial fall. The steer prices you see quoted Now, I found this article heartening in that this is a case where
at Kansas City are other indicators of prices. people felt the sting of not believing our numbers when our
The Financial Times had an article on September 5 com¬ numbers turned out to be right. This episode prompts me to issue
menting on this situation. They are commenting on the fall in an overdue note of appreciation to all those who provide the
cattle prices, and this is what they say: projections, outlooks, estimates, guesses that policy-making is
absolutely dependent upon.
“Why the markets took such a tumble is a matter In addition to that note of appreciation, I have also been
of controversy. At the center of it is a Denver-based impressed, in the statistical agencies, with the extent of effort in
producer’s organization called CattleFax. Earlier this trying to improve forecasts. You look at the deviations between
year, CattleFax questioned the figures from the U.S. what has been forecasted and what actually occurred, have spent
FFC/91 Forecasung Contest Winners: From left to right, Clifford Woodruff, BEA; Betty Su, BLS; Thomas Snyder, NCES; Thomas
Hady, ERS (Overall Winner); Sal Corallo, NCES; Patrick Walker, U.S. Courts; and Lawrence Sink, Census.
Department of Agriculture on the number of cattle in a lot of effort try ing to find out why these deviations have occurred,
feedlots, saying that based on returns from its own and on how to improve things. I am sure that the drive to improve
members it believed there were some 300,000 fewer our product is a big part of why you are all here today.
cattle in lots than the USDA calculated. It suggested So, with that, I welcome you and hope you have a productive
that the demand for beef was set to continue and conference. Thank you.
consequently that prices would not lose more than six
cents a pound going into the summer when seasonally- Mr. Saunders: Thank you, Dr. Gardner. We come now to the
plentiful supplies usually bring a price drop. moment that at least 47 of you have been waiting for the
“The organization turned out to be wrong about announcement of the results of the First Annual Federal Forecast¬
cattle numbers and about the prospects for prices, ing Contest. To carry out this pleasant task, I would like to
which plummeted. But before this was clear, introduce our two contest administrators, Debra Gerald and Karen
CattleFax’s doubts about the USDA figures had Hamrick.
prompted a crisis regarding the government data among
industry analysts, particularly in some influential Ms. Hamrick: For the first time, this year’s conference sponsored
security houses.’The result of this was that many in a forecasting contest, and Debra Gerald and I volunteered to
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